An important trilateral meeting between President Trump, Prime Minister Abe and Prime Minister Modi which forms an important economic alliance for President Trump’s Indo-Pacific economic strategy.  This larger geopolitical strategy is the counterweight to China’s One-Belt/One-Road (red dragon) maneuver.

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[Transcript] Buenos Aires, Argentina – 2:39 P.M. AST – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s a great honor to be with Prime Minister Modi of India, and, as you know, Prime Minister Abe of Japan. And we just had a great meeting, and we’re having now what we call a “trilat.”
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U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hold a bilateral meeting at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina. (Video and Transcript) PM Abe represents one important leg of the “indo-pacific” economic/trade realignment, being carried out by President Trump.

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[Transcript] Buenos Aires, Argentina – 1:50 P.M. AST – PRESIDENT TRUMP: So it’s a great honor to be with my friend, Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, who has just had a very big success in his election. He won by a massive amount. And I’m not surprised at all.
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On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina, U.S. President Trump, Mexican President Pena Nieto and Justin from Canada deliver remarks prior to signing the NAFTA replacement agreement, the USMCA. [White House Statement Here]
The USMCA is a major structural shift in the U.S., Mexico and Canada, trade agreement. While the new agreement does not form an actual trade-bloc, the agreement removes most of the exploitation of the U.S. market that existed within NAFTA. The U.S. and Mexico are the primary benefactors; Canada notsomuch.

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[Transcript] Buenos Aires, Argentina – 9:24 A.M. AST – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. We’re gathered together this afternoon for a very historic occasion: The signing ceremony for a brand new trade deal, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. So important.
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This is one of those reports that seems small and appears way over there on the periphery. However, if MAGAnomics and trade are important to you, this story is very much worth paying attention to.
As CTH shared last week the White House reached out to EU auto executives to request a meeting.  There is a VERY STRONG likelihood the message within this meeting will surround potential tariffs, and questions from team Trump about the intents of EU (mostly German) automakers against the backdrop of the USMCA.
The potential for auto-tariffs terrifies the EU (specifically Germany), because most of their profits from within the industry come from access to the U.S. market.   Few major markets in the world can afford the scale of automobile purchases as a wealthy U.S.A. does.  The profit margins are much smaller in all other countries.  Without the U.S. market, these auto companies would be in deep financial trouble.  Enter Trump’s leverage:
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The issue is basic to the construct of the USMCA (NAFTA replacement).
BMW made a multi-billion-dollar investment in Mexico in anticipation of exploiting the NAFTA loophole.  President Trump has closed the loophole.  The new USMCA agreement requires 75% of automobile parts made in North America; and 45% must come from plants with minimum labor costs ($16/hr), or face tariffs upon export to the U.S.
As a result BMW is now considering opening those higher-wage component supply operations in the U.S.

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – BMW (BMWG.DE) is considering a second U.S. manufacturing plant that could produce engines and transmissions, Chief Executive Harald Krueger said on Tuesday, shortly after a report that U.S. President Donald Trump would impose tariffs on imported cars from next week
[…] BMW is considering changes to U.S. operations as sales in the region grow, Krueger said. BMW has a U.S. vehicle assembly plant, in South Carolina, is planning to open a Mexico factory next year, and is considering changes to its current scheme of importing engines and transmissions.

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Press Secretary Sarah Sanders, National Security adviser John Bolton and National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow hold a very important press briefing from the White House.
Chairman Kudlow discusses current economic issues, and the upcoming possible trade discussions with China at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aries, Argentina. At 19:00 minutes NSA John Bolton takes over to discuss the scheduling details of the G20.  [Interesting trilateral mentioned: Trump, Modi and Abe] At 30:00 minutes Sarah Sanders takes over.

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President Trump’s ‘America First’  tweets are seen as dangerous to the progressive left because they are loaded with brutal, and often purposeful, honesty.  Today is another clear example.
General Motors would not exist today if it wasn’t for the taxpayer-funded bailouts of their financial position in 2008/2009.  GM is uniquely indebted to the U.S. taxpayer. After receiving those bailouts GM moved production of their newer sectors of autos to Mexico and China; providing no benefit to the American workers who funded their bailout.

GM is one deliberate presidential tweet-string away from seeing a massive consumer backlash that could would wipe out their business.  President Trump doesn’t bluff.
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GM Chevy Cruze, built at Lordstown, OH: (Sales -27% through September 2018). GM Chevy Impala, built at Oshawa, Canada and Hamtramck Michigan: (sales -13%). GM Buick LaCrosse (-14%); and Cadillac CT6 (sales -11%) both built at Hamtramck Michigan.
Following major drops in the sedan sector of the U.S. automotive market, General Motors CEO Mary Barra announced plans to halt production next year at three assembly plants: Lordstown, Ohio; Hamtramck, Michigan; and Oshawa, Ontario. GM will fully stop production on several models assembled at those plants: Chevrolet Cruze, Cadillac CT6 and the Buick LaCrosse.
These cuts could lead to approximately 6,000 to 8,000 lost jobs.

DETROIT/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – General Motors Co said on Monday it will cut production of slow-selling models and slash its North American workforce in the face of a declining market for traditional gas-powered sedans, shifting more investment to electric and autonomous vehicles.

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Canadian media are reporting that General Motors plans to shut down operation in Oshawa, Canada.   This is quite possibly an outcome that portends the sign of things to come…

CANADA – Numerous sources have told CTV Toronto that General Motors is planning to close all operations in Oshawa, Ont., affecting thousands of high-paying jobs.
The announcement is expected to be made on Monday, in the city of about 159,000 people located roughly 60 kilometres east of Toronto.  Sources said they believe the Oshawa closures are part of a global restructuring. (read more)

GM holds considerable risk exposure within the current state of international trade and economics as it relates to the auto industry.  As a result of the ongoing U.S-China trade confrontation, GM holds risk as a result of heavy investment in China.  Add to that exposure the very significant financial impacts about to start for heavy manufacturing operations inside countries aligned with the Paris Climate Treaty, and the risk increases.
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In June 2018 President Trump instructed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to initiate a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods (Round #1).  After two months of China refusing to negotiate renewed trade deals in good faith President Trump instructed Lighthizer to increase the tariff rate to 25% in August (Round #2).  There is a third tranche of tariffs scheduled for January 1st, 2019.

With a full quarter of trade data to analyze the impacts, the results are now measurable.  A multinational group studying the outcome (full pdf below), identified that approximately 4.5% of the tariff is being carried by American consumers.  The overwhelming cost of the tariff is being paid (20.5% absorbed) by Chinese producers.

(Via Bloomberg) President Donald Trump is succeeding in making China pay most of the cost of his trade war.
That’s the conclusion of a new paper from EconPol Europe, a network of researchers in the European Union. U.S. companies and consumers will only pay 4.5 percent more after the nation imposed 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and the other 20.5 percent toll will fall on Chinese producers, according to authors Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr.

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