It’s not Mexico that needs a trade deal with Europe, it’s the opposite.

For almost two decades Europe has been investing heavily inside Mexico, particularly noted in the auto industry, as they positioned themselves to take advantage of NAFTA and later the USMCA as an entry to the U.S. market.

European auto companies spent billions on assembly plants in Mexico, where they could ship EU manufactured component goods to be assembled into NAFTA/USMCA compliant vehicles.  As President Trump and USTR Greer begin focusing on eliminating the USMCA trade agreement in favor of two bilateral deals (U.S-Canada and U.S-Mexico), Europe now needs to protect prior investment.

The prior Mexico-EU trade agreement has existed since 2000 (NAFTA timeframe).  In 2025 they agreed to a revised Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and finalized the terms and conditions yesterday.

MEXICO CITY, May 22 (Reuters) – Mexico and the European Union signed a long-stalled free trade agreement on Friday as they seek to decrease dependence on the U.S. and partially insulate themselves from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The accord, which they reached broad agreement on in 2025 but have delayed signing, expands a Mexico-EU trade accord from 2000, which covered only industrial goods. The new pact adds services, government procurement, digital trade, investment and farm produce.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa are to sign the deal in Mexico City in their first summit in over a decade.

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When Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin uses the term “Nazi” he does so with a perspective that is not the same as western considerations. Ukraine is well known for their ideological blood lust, the events within this story are related to that definition.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered the targeting of a college dormitory in Starobilsk, Luhansk, an occupied territory under the control of Russian forces.

This was not a military target. Yana Lantratova, Russia’s human rights commissioner, said that 86 ​teenagers aged 14 to 18 had been asleep inside the hostel belonging to Luhansk Pedagogical University’s Starobilsk college when Ukrainian drones had attacked it during ​the night.

Leonid Pasechnik, the top Russian-installed official in Luhansk, said two people had been pulled from the rubble. Maria Lvova-Belova, presidential commissioner for children’s rights, said up to ‌18 children ⁠could still be trapped.

Ukraine’s military denied the Russian accusations and said it had struck an elite drone command unit in the area. It said that ​Kyiv complied with international humanitarian law.

Putin said in his own statement, which was carried by state TV, that there were no military ​targets near the dorm.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio gives a press conference with the assembled press pool following NATO discussions in Helsingborg, Sweden.

The main topics of concern from the European media is the reduction of U.S. troops from NATO bases and the current status of the conflict with Iran.  Rubio notes that Sweden and Finland joining NATO was one of the few examples of the alliance benefiting from the addition of countries.  However, that said, the overall posture of NATO should proceed with an urgency on their own defense posture as the U.S. footprint is under evaluation.

At 15:25 of the video below, Secretary Rubio discusses the current status of the U.S. toward the conflict with Ukraine.  Rubio notes the Ukraine-Russia conflict will only resolve with a negotiated settlement.  WATCH: 

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio gives remarks to the media from Miami as he prepares to travel to Sweden on a diplomatic mission. Rubio is asked about ongoing negotiations and conflicts with Iran as well as the indictment of Cuban official Raul Castro.

Secretary Rubio also discusses the World Health Organization and the Ebola outbreak in Africa.  As noted by Rubio the #1 priority for the administration is making sure the issue does not come to the United States.  Rubio also noted a change in posture toward NATO following several EU countries refusing to allow U.S. military engagement from bases within their nations.  “The president and I are both disappointed,” with the intransigence of several NATO countries.

Secretary Rubio continues to state the U.S and Cuban officials are still in communication throughout the political conflict between the two countries, the main problem is the Cuban regime doesn’t know how to effectively run a country and is corrupt with all revenue that exists.  Cuba is heading toward being “a failed state” and that issue elevates the urgency due to proximity.

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Somewhere along the path to the inevitable dissolution of the USMCA trilateral trade agreement, reality will set in for Canada.  Until then, denial is the preferred course of action from Prime Minister Mark Carney.  Not since COVID-19 have we witnessed an intellectual disassociation happening over such a large sector of a population.

According to the latest media reports, Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to announce a new Canadian Trade Advisory Council that will strategize the best moves within each sector of the Canadian economy to deal with the United States USMCA renegotiations.  Even at this latest date, the Canadian government is still under the belief they can negotiate themselves into a position where their status within the USMCA (CUSMA) will be retained.

Simultaneous to this announcement, the one best hope the Canadians have relied upon is also evaporating.  However, before discussing that aspect, let’s first look at the advisory council.

CANADA – Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to unveil a new advisory council focused on Canada-US trade relations as Ottawa attempts to salvage Canadian-US trade amidst Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs. According to reports, the council will bring together major business leaders, labour representatives and former politicians to advise the federal government ahead of the scheduled review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

[…] While the entire list of figures present on the council has yet to be announced, the Government of Canada first announced the advisory committee in April 2026, and released a partial list of members. Members reportedly include Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, former Quebec premier Jean Charest, and other representatives from sectors such as energy, manufacturing and forestry. There are also multiple high-level Canadian executives present on the list released by the Prime Minister’s office on April 21. The committee will be chaired by Dominic LeBlanc, who currently serves as minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade and intergovernmental affairs. According to the Prime Minister’s Office, the council’s role will be to provide strategic advice and industry expertise as Canada prepares for negotiations under the umbrella of Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats.

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Remarkably, many news articles are citing confusion in trying to understand why U.S. Undersecretary of War, Elbridge Colby, announced the suspension of U.S. participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense with Canada. However, the announcement comes immediately after his meeting with U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, at the Pentagon and the comment, “we’re working closely to ensure every NATO partner, including Canada, reaches the Hague Summit’s 3.5% GDP defense spending target, a vital investment for North American and Arctic defense.”

The issue, as outlined by Undersecretary Colby, centers around Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent statements in antagonism toward the U.S., a public announcement that Canada would not be purchasing U.S. military equipment and the biggest issue of all, that Canada is not living up to the NATO defense spending agreements.

It was in December of 2024, immediately after the November election where Donald Trump won, when then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago for dinner with President Trump and told him there’s no way that Canada could meet their NATO obligations.  Canada had relied on the USA to provide all national defense and was 16th in defense spending at 1.1% of GDP. {CITATION}

The issue of NATO compliance was part of a larger discussion around trade imbalances, non-tariff barriers, intellectual property conflicts and legislative hurdles that Canada used as a crutch to retain economic benefit without reciprocity.

Trudeau was arguing that Canada could not change all the points of conflict, drop their non-tariff barriers, comply with NATO demands and simultaneously get into total alignment with the USMCA trade compact (CUSMA to Canada), because their climate policies did not support or match the heavy industrial processing capabilities of both the United States and Mexico.

This triggered President Trump to respond with the 51st state, notation.  Essentially, if you cannot be a partner with equal capabilities; and if you need to retain structural economic dependency; then Canada should just become a 51st state of the USA.

Since that time, things went downhill quickly.  Instead of trying to find ways to eliminate points of conflict, Prime Minister Mark Carney began a campaign of aggressive anti-Trump narrative distribution in order to maximize domestic political benefits.

President Trump then turned toward Mexico and began working with USTR Jamieson Greer to construct what is essentially a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and Mexico.

The administration began ignoring Canada, planning instead to announce the upcoming dissolution of the USMCA and then force Canada to negotiate a bilateral.  A jilted Canada then began doubling and tripling down on the anti-Trumpism, with Carney saying the era of trade between the USA and Canada is over.

Carney then reached out to Europe and China for trade replacement value and began making announcements about no longer purchasing U.S. manufactured fighter jets and military hardware.

U.S. Undersecretary of War, Elbridge Colby meets with U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, and obviously the NATO stuff is just the straw that ended the U.S. participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense with Canada.  Not a complicated timeline to figure out.

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Barbara Boyd from Promethean Action PAC gives her take on the current situation.

“Barbara Boyd argues the key outcome of Trump’s China visit was the personal trust between Trump and Xi, symbolized by Xi’s “secret garden” tour previously reserved for Putin, and framed as establishing guardrails for U.S.–China strategic and tech competition amid the Iran war and energy geopolitics. She says London and Democrats are “screaming” because Trump is reshaping global economic relationships while Treasury Secretary Bessent lifts U.S. sanctions on Russian exports. The episode targets Mark Carney and Keir Starmer as City of London figures who tried to capture China finance, advance BRICS as a dollar alternative, promote a synthetic reserve currency via CBDCs, and steer $130T through green finance—efforts Boyd says have failed as Trump reverses “Green New Deal” policies. She highlights DOJ election-rigging probes, renewed scrutiny of “Russiagate,” anti-fraud prosecutions, voter backlash, and insurgent politics in Los Angeles and London.”

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I’m not going to spend too much time on this as I suspect most readers are well aware of my predictions on the matter.  Suffice to say Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has extended the sanctions waiver on Russian oil and gas for another 30-days. {citation}

[SOURCE]

The OFAC waiver targets Russian oil/gas that was loaded onto floating storage platforms as of April 17, 2026.  The destination of the oil/gas will primarily be China, India and Southeast Asia; westbound Arctic supply route. The general license means all of the ASEAN countries can purchase in dollars and provides Russia with an exchange for the same currency valuation.  Once again, Zelenskyy -and Europe- will not be happy.

There is a certain irony in Europe previously banning the import of Russian oil/gas (EU sanctions) and now, when they desperately need it, the supply is flowing in the opposite direction.  Both Russia’s Arctic I and Arctic II platforms are operating to produce the supply; however, as many readers here will note they coincidentally :::nudge, nudge – wink, wink::: started pumping supply to “on the water” storage for six months prior to the beginning of the Iran conflict.   This is the third U.S. waiver of sanctions.

Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday. {GO DEEP}

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Mercedes is willing to begin military and weapons production. Historically speaking, this did not work out so well for Europe the last time; however, as with all things German, the expanded backstory is a little more complicated.

Due to a combination of terrible political decisions related to the German and EU energy sector, the German industrial economy is contracting rapidly. Germany is the heart of the EU economic engine.

At the same time as the German economy is contracting, the economic footprint of China in the EU is growing. The core issue centers around a declining auto sector but extends to all ancillary manufacturing outputs.

By following the WEF’s “Build Back Better” program, Europe as a whole has ended up making itself energy-dependent and vulnerable. The Gulf oil and gas crisis, the looming 25% Trump tariffs on EU cars, and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from German NATO bases only add to their growing economic troubles.

Around the same time as this economic convergence, Germany began ramping up its commitments, support, and spending for Ukraine in the conflict with Russia. Subsidy outflows rose just as GDP was falling, a clear example of an economic spiral that can easily spin out of control.

German Chancellor Freidrich Merz is trying to deal with the consequences of exceptionally short-sighted and damaging policy, but reversing the trend would require Germany to focus all policy operations inwardly away from Brussels and the demands of the collective European Union. This is now the core issue in German politics driving bold dividing lines between political power structures.

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The folks at Promethean Action PAC outline their perspective on what President Trump’s trip to Beijing means against the backdrop of a substantial geopolitical reset that seems to diminish the role of Europe.

“Susan Kokinda analyzes President Trump’s May 14 post responding to Xi Jinping’s remarks about the “Thucydides Trap,” arguing media coverage framed the U.S. as declining while Trump asserted America’s renewed strength. She says the summit’s real significance was Trump bringing an unprecedented delegation of top U.S. CEOs into the bilateral meeting and including the Defense Secretary, breaking a post-1972 pattern.

Kokinda highlights Trump raising denuclearization directly with Xi and rejecting war-driven “geopolitical trigger points,” including on Taiwan, emphasizing avoiding a distant war. She contends the Thucydides Trap concept popularized by Graham Allison is British-influenced “fake history” that obscures imperial manipulation, and claims Trump is dismantling that paradigm by reviving the American System—tariffs, manufacturing, and energy independence.”

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