The headline is the reality of the thing.

Oil and gas sales from Iran are under international sanction and not supposed to be taking place.  However, oil and gas sales from Iran -violating the sanctions- have been taking place.

CENTCOM is announcing that the U.S. military will now ensure the oil and gas from Iran doesn’t move.

The U.S. will physically enforce the pre-existing global sanctions. A blockade begins tomorrow morning.

TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation.

The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

Additional information will be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade.

All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches. (SOURCE)

Oil and gas from Kuwait will be allowed transit and passage.  Oil and gas from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar will also transit without issue.  However, oil or gas from Iran will be blocked.  China takes the biggest hit, again.

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The rebranded Lyndon LaRouche PAC has another good outline on the new strategic alliances assembled by President Trump as the ongoing conflict with Iran continues.

Susan Kokinda reviews how the United Kingdom and Europe have been sidelined as President Trump directly negotiates with key stakeholders in the middle east and Asia.  Kokinda correctly notes the messaging from Russia indicates a strategic awareness that old systems are fracturing and the potential for new strategic alliances is rising.

“Susan Kokinda argues President Trump has opened a new diplomatic space to de-escalate the Iran conflict by working through a regional roster—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, Gulf States, and back channels into Iran—while the U.K., EU, and NATO are absent and increasingly irrelevant. Citing reporting that ministers met in Riyadh and that Egypt, Turkey, and Oman carried messages, she says this “Board of Peace” architecture is isolating Iran and weakening its proxies, pointing to Lebanon’s move against Hezbollah, the Palestinian Authority’s condemnation of Iran, and Hamas considering disarmament. Kokinda links Europe’s exclusion to self-inflicted energy weakness from Green and anti-Russia policies, noting rushed LNG moves and a delayed Russian oil ban vote. She concludes Ukraine’s outlook darkens as Europe and Britain lack leverage, highlighting Zelenskyy’s scramble for support in London and Washington.” WATCH:

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CTH has said to watch the U.S.-Japan trade relationship closely because the outlines of multiple geopolitical shifts can be referenced from a new strategic relationship surrounding multiple sectors, including energy.

The U.S, relationship with Japan is both leverage and a hedge against old alliances that may seek to disrupt the global reset currently underway through President Trump policy.  The issues with the European Union, U.K, USMCA and other tenuous allies, look entirely different when President Trump has alternative partnerships for massive energy exports.

ENERGY NEWS – In a major move to secure stable energy supplies amid escalating geopolitical tensions, Japan has inked deals worth up to $56 billion with the United States for oil, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases and investments.

This agreement, finalized at the Asia-Pacific Energy Security Forum in Tokyo on March 14, 2026, underscores Japan’s push to diversify its energy imports and deepen economic ties with the US under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration.

The deals come as part of a broader framework stemming from the 2025 US-Japan trade agreement, where Japan pledged $550 billion in US investments over several years, with energy as a key pillar.

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When the Supreme Court made their ridiculous decision to nullify the import tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) use, the high court noted several alternate approaches would not be legally problematic.  One of those approaches would be the use of Section 301 trade tariffs.

Yesterday USTR Jamieson Greer quietly announced that a Section 301 review would be taking place for the following countries: China, the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, and India.”

♦ Section 301 tariffs are a trade enforcement mechanism established under the Trade Act of 1974. They allow the U.S. government to impose tariffs on imports from countries that are found to be engaging in unfair trade practices. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) conducts investigations to determine if a country is violating trade agreements, and if so, it can impose tariffs as a corrective measure {SOURCE}

USTR PRESS RELEASE – WASHINGTON — Today, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced the initiation of investigations regarding the acts, policies, and practices of various economies under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors.

The investigations will determine whether those acts, policies, and practices are unreasonable or discriminatory and burden or restrict U.S. commerce. The economies subject to these investigations are: China, the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, and India.

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The geopolitical ramifications of the oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) impact from the ongoing conflict with Iran is changing many of the world’s energy supply chains. Given the nature of the issues there are a myriad of complex dynamics to discuss. However, one key component is the U.S. policy shift to deal with the supply.

With that in mind, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears with Larry Kudlow to discuss the United States’ new $20 billion maritime reinsurance plan as well as the ongoing conflict in Iran. CTH will be expanding the conversation specifically as it relates to Russian oil/gas sales. This is a good precursor interview. WATCH:

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An interesting reaction from Beijing highlights an evaluation of risk from the lack of oil flowing from Iran.

According to most evaluated data, China was buying more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil. That’s according to data from 2025 as analyzed by Kpler and published in January by Reuters.

Iranian oil always had limited buyers due to U.S. sanctions. However, China purchased on average 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year, according to Kpler. That represented about 13.4% of the total 10.27 million bpd of oil it imported by sea.

With President Trump previously cutting of discounted oil from Venezuela, two things unfolded.  First, the Venezuela oil was no longer sold with non-petrodollar currencies; Venezuela oil is now being sold on the standard oil market.  Secondly, with the Venezuela oil disrupted China would become even more dependent on Iranian oil shipments if they wanted to retain the discounted rate.

How big is the financial difference?  According to Reuters, “Iranian Light crude has traded at around $8 to $10 a barrel below ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China since December.” … “That means Chinese refiners save about $8 to $10 a barrel if they buy Iranian Light rather than non-sanctioned oil.”

Additionally, as noted before Operation Epic Fury began, “Iran has a record amount of oil on the water, equivalent to around 50 days of output, as China has bought less because of sanctions and Tehran seeks to protect its supplies from the risk of U.S. strikes, Kpler said.”

Buying discounted oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia resulted in billions of dollars saved by China.  The only production venue not currently disrupted would be purchases from Moscow.  This increases the dependency, but the purchase price may no longer carry any discounted value, at least not at the previous rate.

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Consider the severe economic body blows to China in the past 14 months.

♦ First blow, the Trump tariffs hit Beijing hardest. ♦ Second blow, the Beijing tentacle on the Panama Canal is severed.  ♦ Third blow, global tariff threats changed the risk dynamic for southeast Asia countries who acted as transnational shippers for China. ♦ Fourth blow, cheap sanctioned oil from Venezuela was cut-off. ♦ Now, the fifth blow; cheap, sanctioned Iranian oil is disrupted.

As noted by Politico: Following USA military strikes, “ships have begun to avoid the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran — a critical shipping lane for Gulf nations to export oil to Asia. China in 2025 received about half of its imported oil from the six Gulf countries that rely on the strait. Other large crude oil producers in the region — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates — transport almost all their crude exports through the geographic bottleneck.”

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It’s not just a factor of oil flow, but also the price that China will ultimately end up having to pay.  Beijing was buying oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia at steep discounts because their purchases were skirting western sanctions.

With Iranian oil production now no longer a market option, China will seek to replace their needs with more Russian alternative. However, that diversion means the oil India was purchasing from Russia will come at a higher price, and the refined final product that was exported by India will arrive to the European Union carrying an additional cost.

Simultaneously, Vladimir Putin was asked about Russia’s lack of military support to Iran in response to the U.S. military action, to wit the Russian president noted the technical terms of their joint military agreements did not include Russia’s immediate involvement.  In shorthand, Russia is busy and is not getting involved.

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Here we go.  If you’ve been under the Treehouse branches for more than a few months, it is now officially time to pull up a rock take a front row seat and enjoy the show.  Don’t draw attention to yourself; however, please do bring your favorite beverage, relax and watch what no one else will admit is happening.  The 2026 operation to exit the USMCA is officially underway.

While the Snow Mexicans are gnashing their teeth talking about feelings and various shiny things, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is meeting today with Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard to strategize the best approach for a U.S-Mexican bilateral free trade agreement.

Please remember, in order to fully appreciate the moment, we must allow all negotiation pretenses to remain in place, giving the illusion of something that will no longer be present when the end goal is reached.

Jan 28 (Reuters) – U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard agreed during a meeting on Wednesday to begin formal discussions on possible reforms to the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, Greer’s office said.

Possible reforms include stronger rules of origin for key industrial goods, more collaboration on critical minerals, increasing efforts to defend workers and producers, and efforts to combat dumping of manufactured goods, the USTR’s office said in a statement. (LINK)

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People might be interested in the recent stories of Canadian Premier Doug Ford and his reversal of position on Chinese EV production. Ontario Premier Ford now welcomes Chinese EVs into Canada.

Or people might be interested in the recent story of the EU announcing a historic trade deal with India. The European Union is now looking to find new markets to replace the U.S., while simultaneously agreeing to establish a new immigration/recruitment process to accept massive numbers of Indian migrants.

Yes, Canada reverses their position on trade with China, that’s odd. And somehow the EU immediately forgets their demands for India to stop buying Russian oil or face EU sanctions, another oddity.  This is like watching someone you don’t like, get engaged to your smelly, fat ex-girlfriend. [Matthew 15:14]

Canada and the EU take trade and economic positions seemingly against U.S. interests. Simultaneously Mexico modifies all their trade positions to come into alignment with the USA. Yesterday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced Mexico will no longer ship oil to Cuba.

What’s going on?

Well, to really understand what is happening you need to look at President Trump’s responses to all of the individual issues outlined above and take a much bigger picture view.  President Trump is the master of the ‘self-fulfilling prophecy.’

♦ CANADA – When President Trump was asked about Prime Minister Mark Carney creating a new trade agreement with China, President Trump responded that he didn’t care – it was irrelevant to him.  Yet, simultaneously inside the USMCA President Trump has the power to veto any trade agreement between Mexico or Canada and a non-member nation.

So, why didn’t President Trump care?  Easy, because in President Trump’s mind there’s not going to be a USMCA; so, he really doesn’t care if Canada runs to violate it.  In real terms, Canada doing bilateral deals with other countries, especially deals potentially detrimental to the USA, only strengthens his position on dissolving the USMCA.

If Canada violates the terms and spirit of the USMCA, it makes dispatch of the unliked trade agreement even easier.  Canada is helping President Trump remove the congressional justification they could use to block him.  If Canada is violating the USMCA (CUSMA), Congress is kneecapped from interference.

Provoking Canada into a trade position, that puts them at a disadvantage trying to stop the dissolution of the CUSMA, stops Congress from opposing the fracture, and then opens the door to a bilateral trade agreement, is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that is entirely controlled by President Donald Trump.

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Earlier today President Donald Trump participated in an oval office swearing in ceremony for US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor.  Ambassador Gor was sworn in by Vice-President JD Vance (prompted) and then President Trump took questions from the assembled press pool (13:41).  WATCH: 

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