I am going to outline a contextual background for the Iranian conflict and my opinion of the current situation in detail. In short, I stand with President Trump’s position, but many of the influential aspects are being missed.

The anti-interventionist podcasters and the Israel-first advocates are both wrong. An honest and pragmatic review of the entire regional dynamic is needed.  Which includes the big picture question that no one is asking.

In the interim, here is the statement from President Trump describing the current status, against the backdrop of Vice President JD Vance’s earnest efforts to negotiate a resolution:

[VIA TRUTH SOCIAL] – “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World.

They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance?

There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them.

I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.

The meeting with Iran began early in the morning and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!

In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people.

My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!

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Vice President JD Vance speaks briefly to the assembled press pool in Pakistan following 21 hours of negotiations with interim Iranian officials.

Vice President Vance notes that no deal was reached and that is fundamentally “bad news for Iran.”  Within the brief remarks and responses to questions, Vance notes Iran “has chosen, not to accept our terms.”  The VP then outlined the core goal is for an agreement not to develop a nuclear weapon, and the Iranian delegation are unwilling to accept terms that stop them from achieving nuclear weapon capabilities.  WATCH:

President Trump is scheduled to give a live interview with Maria Bartiromo at 10:00am ET on Fox News.  Obviously, this will be the substantive issue President Trump will likely discuss.

With tensions still high and no clear next steps, Iran’s refusal to accept terms without nuclear missile development raises serious questions about the future of the conflict.

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As Vice President JD Vance and the U.S. negotiating team meet with interim, hopefully ‘governing’, Iranian officials in Pakistan, the U.S. Navy and military have entered the Strait of Hormuz.

First, the announcement from President Donald Trump:

“The Fake News Media has lost total credibility, not that they had any to begin with. Because of their massive Trump Derangement Syndrome (Sometimes referred to as TDS!), they love saying that Iran is “winning” when, in fact, everyone knows that they are LOSING, and LOSING BIG!

Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft apparatus is nonexistent, Radar is dead, their Missile and Drone Factories have been largely obliterated along with the Missiles and Drones themselves and, most importantly, their longtime “Leaders” are no longer with us, praise be to Allah!

The only thing they have going is the threat that a ship may “bunk” into one of their sea mines which, by the way, all 28 of their mine dropper boats are also lying at the bottom of the sea. We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, and many others. Incredibly, they don’t have the Courage or Will to do this work themselves.

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Susan Kokinda from Promethean Action gives her perspective on the negotiated ceasefire with Iran.  Kokinda notes the key players were Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey (she missed China).

In a lesser reported part of the background, Chairman Xi Jinping summoned the Pakistani negotiators to Beijing prior to the terms of agreement with Trump.  The summoning happened right after Trump said he was going to target the full force of the U.S. military against Iranian infrastructure.

Why does that matter to China?  Belt and Road.  Beijing has built a railway from China into Iran for the transport of goods and raw materials (including energy products) out of Iran (sanctions avoidance) in exchange for shipments of weapons. If President Trump targeted the railway infrastructure, in combination with the oil shipments being hampered, ¹China would be in a very bad place.  Hence the summoning to get a ceasefire.

Focusing too narrowly on the British Empire as the source of all problems and you miss things.  Mrs Kokinda missed this:

[SOURCE]

¹China in a bad place due to the middle east in crisis, means China becomes more dependent on Russia for oil, gas and ultimately fuel.  Internally, Russia isn’t a big fan of their Chinese dependencies.

If FUBAR in Iran remained the statis, the two countries not in any crisis would be the USA and Russia, both with oil/gas and extra refining capacity.  The countries/regions in biggest crisis would be China, Europe and Southeast Asia.

The U.S. and Russia less affected.  China and the EU more affected.  A significant geopolitical paradigm shift, all things considered…. and it appears that Beijing saw it coming.

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What do Pakistan’s Imran Khan, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, USA’s Donald Trump, Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Mexico’s Lopez-Obrador all have in common?

First, they are all strong nationalists. Second, the U.S. government has either influenced the removal and judicial incarceration or is currently seeking the removal and judicial incarceration of each of them.

As the U.S. State Dept. (Tony Blinken), USAID (Samantha Power) and CIA (Director Burns) conduct influence operations around the world to advance the interests of the multinationals; newly released diplomatic cables from inside Pakistan reveal the U.S. influence effort to remove former Pakistan President Imran Khan.

It sucks to wake up every day and accept the USA are the bad guys.

THE U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT encouraged the Pakistani government in a March 7, 2022, meeting to remove Imran Khan as prime minister over his neutrality on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to a classified Pakistani government document obtained by The Intercept.

The meeting, between the Pakistani ambassador to the United States and two State Department officials, has been the subject of intense scrutiny, controversy, and speculation in Pakistan over the past year and a half, as supporters of Khan and his military and civilian opponents jockeyed for power.

The political struggle escalated on August 5 when Khan was sentenced to three years in prison on corruption charges and taken into custody for the second time since his ouster. Khan’s defenders dismiss the charges as baseless. The sentence also blocks Khan, Pakistan’s most popular politician, from contesting elections expected in Pakistan later this year.

One month after the meeting with U.S. officials documented in the leaked Pakistani government document, a no-confidence vote was held in Parliament, leading to Khan’s removal from power. The vote is believed to have been organized with the backing of Pakistan’s powerful military. Since that time, Khan and his supporters have been engaged in a struggle with the military and its civilian allies, whom Khan claims engineered his removal from power at the request of the U.S.

The text of the Pakistani cable, produced from the meeting by the ambassador and transmitted to Pakistan, has not previously been published. The cable, known internally as a “cypher,” reveals both the carrots and the sticks that the State Department deployed in its push against Khan, promising warmer relations if Khan was removed, and isolation if he was not. (read more, including cable)

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U.S. Magistrate Judge Michael Harvey (Obama appointee in 2015) declined to hold the two men in jail who are accused of impersonating federal agents in Washington DC. “There’s been no showing that national security information has been compromised,” Harvey said in his decision.

If the DOJ does not appeal the decision, both men, Arian Taherzadeh, (40) and Haider Ali (35), who are also in the United States with expired visas, will be allowed bond.

(Reuters) – […] Harvey ordered both men to remain in home confinement, subject to GPS monitoring, with their parents and that they surrender their passports and stay away from airports and embassies.

[…] The judge said prosecutors did not prove the defendants tried to infiltrate the Secret Service with nefarious purposes, and noted they were so “spectacularly outed” that there is no risk anymore that they can continue to pose as agents.

Harvey said neither defendant is charged with a violent crime and neither one faces a stiff prison term if convicted – all elements that work against the prosecution’s claims they pose a danger to the community. Harvey added there have been “significantly worse and more dangerous impersonation cases” before the court in the past.  (read more)

It was also recently revealed the Secret Service tipped-off the two imposters right before they were about to get arrested.

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David Fox is an American trapped in Kabul who appeared on a video report with ABC to highlight the situation faced by thousands of Americans attempting to evacuate the region. While he was describing the dangerous situation around the Kabul airport, Mr. Fox also pointed out a very serious issue.  ABC buried the lead….

According to his report, the U.S. State Department responded en masse to all the people trapped in Afghanistan reaching out for help.

The U.S. Embassy consular services department sent a document with instructions to assist Americans and eligible Afghans claiming Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) status. The document looks exactly like an approved VISA document except there is no filled in name, no serial number and no barcode.

As Mr. Fox notes, the document is easily able to be forged which makes the Kabul airport situation even worse, as it is likely the people who receive this response from the consular’s office will duplicate it and share it with friends or family who can then use it in an effort to get to the United States.

[WATCH ABC News video at 06:25]

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Mr. Fox attributes this massive problem to bureaucratic “brainworms“, or a mistake by professional bureaucrats within the State Department trying to help but actually making things worse.  However, there is a possibility it’s not a mistake.  Perhaps this was done purposefully.

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This is a painful interview between furrowed brow Jake Tapper, painfully wanting to defend the administration and yet the total failure is too insurmountable to defend, and an abjectly overwhelmed and clueless Secretary of State Anthony Blinken – who is trying to explain the complete mess they have created.

The background here is the history of foreign policy failures and boondoggles by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton…. and the transferring of those same geopolitical outlooks into the Biden administration.  Blinken talks in platitudes of diplomacy that are irrelevant today.  The Chinese, Russians and Afghanistan Taliban don’t give a tinkers-damn what the dementia nurses around Biden are talking about.

The pearl-clutching Biden/Blinken approach is just as irrelevant as the bomb-dropping Obama/Clinton approach.  Team Biden act as if the Taliban cares about what Facebook, Twitter and Instagram voices say about them; it’s nuts.  The single-minded totalitarian Taliban don’t care about the United States or United Nations any more than they care about Tik Tok or CNN opinions.

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I’m left wondering where Ayman al-Zawahiri is in all of this?

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Random and related stuff that might help make sense of the next few days, weeks and months as the Taliban retake control of Afghanistan.

(1) The Muslim Brotherhood.  Already reports from Qatar that MB leadership is heading back into Afghanistan.  This is predictable.  The Muslim Brotherhood is the political umbrella for authentic Islam (ie. extremists).  The Brotherhood supports the al-Qaeda regional affiliates including the Taliban, al-Nusra, and others.  Qatar is the financial center of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Brotherhood is political Islam.

(2) China.  Most people don’t realize that China shares a common border with Afghanistan and has issues with Islamic extremists and sympathizers.  China has benefited from the U.S. in Afghanistan keeping the Taliban in check.  A U.S. retreat now means China needs to engage with the Taliban to bolster their national security interests.  China will establish diplomatic ties with the Taliban partly because Beijing uses duplicitous diplomacy as a strategy.  [It ain’t because China likes the Taliban]

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The United States and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (Taliban) have signed a peace agreement to end the nineteen-year war in Afghanistan.  [Details Here]  During the signing ceremony Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered the following remarks.
[Video and Transcript]

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[Transcript] – SECRETARY POMPEO: Good afternoon. I want to start by thanking His Highness Sheikh Tamim for Qatar’s invaluable role as host of these historic talks. His unstinting support, and yours foreign minister, have supported both sides and allowed them to reach this momentous day.
The United States and the Taliban have endured decades of hostility and mistrust. Previous talks have faltered. This effort only became real for the United States when the Taliban signaled interest in pursuing peace and ending their relationship with al-Qaida and other foreign terrorist groups. They also recognized that military victory was impossible. I then asked Ambassador Khalilzad to serve as our lead negotiator to gauge the Taliban’s sincerity.
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