President Trump is navigating a narrow path through a minefield of foreign and domestic opposition to his preferred trade position on the USMCA. Ironically, or not, on the issue of ending the USMCA we likely have more allies in the labor unions and Bernie Bros than we do amid the congressional republicans.

President Trump was asked again today about his position on the USMCA against the backdrop of a hot-mic moment when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was telling him about caps on Chinese EVs coming into Canada. [Prompted]

“I would rather not have the USMCA. The primary reason I wanted it was because there was no way out of NAFTA, which was the worst trade agreement ever made — like, ever — and they had no termination… I would prefer not having an agreement, but I’m open to doing it.”

Several desperate Canadian trade watchers have framed President Trump’s “that’s good” response to Carney as if Trump was approving of the Chinese EV deal.  Again, folks are just not looking at Trump’s position through the correct lens.

Trump doesn’t care about the issue. Trump is ambivalent to the issue. It’s the same mindset Trump has carried throughout all questions and comments since the questions were first raised.

The reason for Trump’s ambivalence about the granular, sectoral questions is simply because in the big picture of Trump’s outlook, he doesn’t plan on staying in a trilateral trade deal.  Any bilateral trade deal Canada makes with a trade partner is perfectly okay, because Canada is not going to be connected to the USA in a trilateral obligation.

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It is not coincidental that we have seen Australia, New Zealand, the U.K, and now Canada trigger online ‘age verification’ laws; simultaneous with a political push inside the USA to maintain FISA (702) legislation.

Separating the USA for a moment. The intelligence services of Australia, New Zealand, U.K and Canada make up four of the intelligence services 5-eyes. In essence, the British Commonwealth is the IC commonality. [Yes, there is some validity to the Lyndon LaRouche perspective (Promethean Action PAC)] Additionally, I would also posit a reminder of the international assembly who structured the originating financial sanctions against Russia; again, a commonality.

Focusing on the most recent political creation in Canada, there are three bills currently being rushed through the Canadian House of Parliament, C-34: keep kids safe on social media; C-36: stronger privacy rules, and C-22: modern tools for police.

Not surprisingly, it is difficult to find non-govt-approved information about this legislative construct online.

Canadian media must remain compliant with approved government narratives in order to maintain their business model. However, putting together some various information found on non-controlled information sources, it is possible to begin discussion of the situation.

The two issues that merge with the greatest impact are Bill C-22: The Surveillance Bill, and Bill C-34: The Children’s Safety Bill.

Bill C-22 requires that all information transmission providers, every telecom and internet company, retain metadata on all Canadian users for up to one year.  This is electronic metadata which we all know encompasses a lot more than just content.

Signal app, NordVPN, Windscribe, DuckDuckGo, Apple, and Meta have all formally opposed it. Signal app has threatened to leave Canada entirely rather than comply.  This is a government mandated metadata storage library on all electronic communication and activity by Canadian users. 

Then there’s Bill C-34: The Children’s Safety Bill, as noted by Lucy Hargreaves, a bill that ‘Applies to Everyone’, not just kids.   “The government’s social media ban for under-16s is genuinely popular, with 75% of Canadians supporting it in polling. The problem is what it requires in practice. To stop anyone under 16 from creating an account, platforms need to know how old everyone is. There is no way to identify who is under 16 without identifying everyone who isn’t. This means every Canadian adult would need to submit government ID or a face scan to a third-party verification company before posting a photo, using cloud storage, or playing an online game. The bill also creates a new Digital Safety Commission with sweeping powers to set the rules, decide which platforms must comply, and approve or deny exemptions — with almost no criteria written into the law itself.”

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Making his ninth trip to Europe since become prime minister 15 months ago, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney once again outlined his governing model to combat a U.S. administration that he claims has fractured the globalist norms.

During his press conference with Micheal Martin, Ireland’s taoiseach (Prime Minister), Carney once again built upon the idea of “middle powers” uniting together in common ideology against U.S. dominance until such a time as the U.S. government can once again return to a leftist ideology.

The specific objectives become clear about halfway through the presser today as Carney notes the importance of grouping nations together who agree on climate change, energy controls and the green agenda.

Canada’s alignment with Europe is seemingly centered on the net-zero carbon model.  This perspective makes sense from Carney as it is the same priority he’s carried since his time as governor for the Bank of England.  WATCH:

As the former Governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, Carney used his platform to position climate change as a systemic financial risk.  He then championed the view that private capital must be the primary tool to force an economic energy transition. [Post-COVID this was known as “Build Back Better.“]

President Trump’s perspective and the majority American view on climate change and energy development is against the core professional effort of Carney and the banking interests he has always represented.  This becomes very important to understand as the U.S-Canada conflict is about to hit an inflection point.

HISTORY: Through the “Net Zero” Banking Alliance (NZBA) Mark Carney pushed banks to agree with policies and protocols that forced them to set lower lending targets to high-carbon industries and clients.  The goal was to force companies to ‘decarbonize’ or find themselves starved of capital.

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The media frame the early arrival of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as part of a bilateral discussion ahead of the G7 which begins on June 15.  However, those who have followed the nuance of geopolitics well understand Mark Carney is in Paris early so that he can strategize with President Emmanuel Macron the best way to defeat Godzilla Trump.

There is a certain irony that amid the G7 only one economy is growing, the USA.

EU leaders including U.K Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron himself are all barely hanging on to power with almost no public support.  Historically, Macron always tries to reposition his domestic lack of support by focusing on international affairs.

Macron and Carney have one nemesis in common, President Donald Trump.  Emmanuel Macron is famous for scheming subtle ways to overcome his own inadequacy, and hosting the G7 puts him in the spotlight.  Mark Carney is coming back to Europe after previously giving a speech in Davos calling for a collective alignment of middle-economy nations to stand united against the terrible Trump.

There is little doubt the pontificating duo has any other topic other than Trump in their scheme and planning folder.

Factually the G7 is a joke now, with likely around 15 to 20 countries showing up.  The G7 used to be the USA, France, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the U.K. Then they added the EU, which brings three more Brussels figureheads, and if the last G7 in Canada is any indication of the intention, there will likely be at least a dozen more showing up.

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Watching U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra discussing current U.S-Canada trade dynamics is to be witnessing one man behind enemy lines trying to explain a situation the audience cannot fathom. It really is remarkable.

The longer he is assigned to this almost hopeless task, the more he develops an ‘I don’t give a damn‘ attitude, regardless of the audience size. It’s completely understandable.

The Canadian government controls the information available to the entire country. The Canadian media push that skewed information to the entire country. Then there’s Ambassador Hoekstra; the guy with completely different information, trying against all odds to present a viewpoint that is so fundamentally different the audience cannot grasp it.

In this video segment all of the dynamics come into play, but that’s not the real value in this capture. WATCH:

What I would recommend to all those who have followed this genuinely bizarre disassociation topic, is to go to YouTube and read the comments underneath this CTV video – GO HERE.

I love and respect our Canadian Treepers who are here with us in the CTH branches of discussion.  I cannot fathom what it must be like to live in Canada amid this level of social, cognitive dissonance.  You have my utmost respect and sympathy.

Within all of the Canadian free trade agreements (FTAs), regardless of nation, there is something called a baseline memorandum of understanding (MOU). That MOU outlines how the trade agreement for goods sold into Canada are contingent upon Canada retaining access to the U.S. market.  When the USMCA is dissolved, almost every single FTA organized by the Canadian government that matters, collapses.  Canadians have no concept of what is coming.

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An interesting article in Japan Times reinforces several insider trade discussions that have been taking place over the past eighteen months.  Essentially, all trade deals with Canada are contingent upon their access to the USA market.  Lose the USMCA trade deal, and any trade terms between Asian and Canadian counterparts are null and void.

This is not the first time this background from key trade nations has been shared with Canada.  Japan told Canada last year that most sector trade, specifically the auto industry, was contingent upon tariff-free access to the U.S. market.  If Canada loses the USMCA, the terms of trade change completely.

This reality is now surfacing in comments directly from the Canadian trade teams and business insiders within Canada.  They are now admitting without the USMCA their leverage for trade with other countries disappears.  This is a considerable admission from within Canada government that has not yet become part of the average Canadian understanding.

If Canada loses their trade agreement with the USA, all other countries will modify their trade agreements with Canada.  Think about the leverage within that reality, overlay the Canadian government’s severe anti-Trump mindset, and you quickly realize just how dangerous Mark Carney is for Canada.

JAPAN TIMES – […] Carney’s push to lessen dependence on the U.S. is colliding with a stubborn reality: access to American markets remains a crucial part of Canada’s appeal to prospective trading partners, according to interviews with a dozen government officials and business leaders.

[…] Canadian officials acknowledge that the main draw for many potential trading partners is the prospect of gaining tariff-free access to the world’s largest market through Canada’s participation in ‌the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade ‌agreement.

Carney regularly touts Canada’s preferential access to the U.S. market, noting that more than 85% of bilateral trade remains tariff-free.

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It is not shocking to us.  It is not shocking to anyone who has followed this story for the past few years.  It is particularly not shocking to you.   However, the Canadians are going bananas right now.

President Donald Trump responded to a question about the current status of the USMCA trade agreement, or what Canada calls CUSMA.  Watch and listen to how President Trump points out that he has no intention of renewing the USMCA.

This has been obvious since May of 2025 {GO DEEP}.

I don’t want to say ‘I toldya so’, but…. Video prompted to 37:55:

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A rather ironic sequence of events as Canada formally requests to renew the USMCA (CUSMA) trade agreement for 16-years, followed a day later by the U.S. announcing additional tariffs toward 60 countries including Canada.

On Tuesday, Dominic LeBlanc, the trade minister from Canada assigned to USMCA negotiations, traveled to Washington DC for a meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

LeBlanc, reflecting the obtuse nature the Canadian trade delegation is now well known for, seemed oblivious to the friction points in the U.S. position and formally requested the trade deal be renewed for another 16 years. {Citation}

LeBlanc called the agreement “highly beneficial” to all three countries. From the Canadian position this may be true, but that’s not even remotely what the U.S. team has presented in private and public comments.

Additionally, over the past two weeks the shift in Canadian strategy has become clearer.   While Carney’s administration previously seemed to be targeting Democrats in the U.S. congress to support retaining a trade agreement with Canada, that approach ended abruptly after several key Democrat senators began taking the position of influential U.S. labor unions who want the deal scrapped.  Canada now seems to be relying on pressure from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and corporate republicans to support their position.

The day after news reports of Dominic LeBlanc’s expressed position, USTR Greer announced a new round of 301 tariffs against 60 countries who participate in third-party trade agreements with countries who use forced labor. {Citation} Suddenly, Canada’s embrace of China becomes even more serious.

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Remember last weekend when we outlined how the sudden sense of urgency from Europe toward a trade agreement with Mexico? that agreement had little to do with purchasing row crops from Mexico, and everything to do with what Europe needs as access to the United States {Go Deep}.

The language being used by the United States trade office is specific. [SEE HERE] The first bilateral round of negotiations between the United States and Mexico for the USMCA free trade agreement has concluded. (Emphasis mine)

PRESS RELEASE – “MEXICO CITY — “Today, the United States and Mexico concluded the first bilateral round related to the Joint Review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The United States concluded discussions with the goals of reducing the trade deficit with Mexico and strengthening American supply chains. During this first round, negotiators discussed priority issues related to automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and economic security.

The United States and Mexico recognize the importance of advancing cooperation to enhance regulatory compatibility to strengthen sectors, including medical devices, pharmaceuticals, cosmetic products, and others.

We will continue advancing these discussions on June 16-17 in Washington, D.C., in addition to agriculture and a level playing field. The third round will be held during the week of July 20 in Mexico City.

The United States continues to emphasize the importance of ensuring the Agreement benefits U.S. manufacturers, farmers, ranchers, workers, service suppliers, and businesses of all sizes, and of addressing free-riding from third countries.” (source)

Currently, European automakers have billions invested in Mexican auto plants.  Much of the component material for those vehicles comes from Europe for assembly in Mexico.  That was the primary focus of the Europeans in their trade agreement with Mexico.

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The technical definition of a “recession” is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The 4th quarter of 2025 and 1st quarter of 2026 have identified exactly that problem, negative GDP growth in Canada. [-1% and -0.1% respectively] The pretending is fierce, and again CTH warns everyone to be careful about exposure to the Canadian sector in their investment holdings.

As customary, whenever the economic policy of a political leftist delivers a bad outcome, the media contort themselves in order to avoid defining the situation accurately.  Instead, the financial media project -without merit- that the current situation is more positive.  Unfortunately, the data doesn’t provide much room to arbitrarily change the definitions.

Keep in mind this announcement today comes on the heels of the Bank of Canada warning that a “cascading series of events could cause a sharp loss of investor confidence and lead to a spike in demand for liquidity or rapid asset sales.”  This is a particularly pertinent phrase given one of the common reasons being attributed to the negative GDP, increased import values – specifically Canadians purchasing gold.

Several financial outlets have noted the increase in the value of Canadian imports, a negative in the GDP calculation, is being driven by Canadians (institutions and individuals) purchasing gold as a hedge.  The Canadians are buying gold as a hedge against both inflation and currency devaluation.

This activity puts additional context onto the statements from the Bank of Canada, who would likely have advanced notice of this issue.  Hence, the Bank of Canada also saying, “In normal times, hedge fund activity helps keep markets running smoothly. But if conditions become strained, this activity could amplify stress and disrupt core funding markets.”  The Wall Street Journal:

WSJ – OTTAWA — Canada’s economy unexpectedly shrank for a second consecutive quarter as activity stalled at the start of the year, raising the likelihood the country dipped into a recession.

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced across Canada, edged down 0.1% in seasonally adjusted annualized terms in the January-to-March period, Statistics Canada said Friday.

The economy also contracted a larger-than-previously-estimated 1% in the final quarter of last year. Back-to-back quarterly declines typically define a technical recession.

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