The pundits, economists and financial media are shocked, perplexed, befuddled and flummoxed.  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics has released the January inflation data [SEE HERE] and the results are much better than they expected.

Overall inflation is 2.4% year-over-year, and there are zero indications that tariffs are having any impact on consumer prices [See Apparel].

[DATA LINK]

CORE inflation, which removes food and energy, comes in at 2.5% year-over-year, the lowest number since March 2021. This is like reliving 2018 all over again, when the pundits proclaimed with absolute certainty that Trump’s tariff approach was going to cause inflation; it never happened.

VIA ABC – Inflation cooled in January, dropping price increases to their lowest level in nine months, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. The lower-than-expected reading defied fears of a tariff-induced hike in overall costs.

Prices rose 2.4% in January compared to a year earlier, according to the Consumer Price Index.

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President Trump holds a roundtable discussion with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and various farm state senators as he outlines $12 billion in support and subsidy for American farmers.

With energy prices lowered, the costs for natural gas, fertilizer, diesel and gasoline prices have fallen; however, food costs have remained high.  President Trump announced with Brooke Rollins an initiative to help support American farmers with the intended objective to lower production costs from the field that will hopefully transfer to the fork.

Secretary Rollins and President Trump announce a $12 billion bridge subsidy to assist farmers with proactive planning for the 2026 planting season.  The money is coming from revenue generated by tariffs, and row crop farming will be the first subsidies delivered.  WATCH (media questions begin at 31:40):

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Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent appears on Fox News with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the Asia tour by President Trump and the trade delegation that culminated with a lengthy meeting between President Trump and Chairman Xi Jinping.

By locking down trade agreements with Australia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Japan and South Korea in advance of the meeting with Xi, President Trump had effectively boxed out the maneuvers of Beijing and isolated any contravening strategy.

Chairman Xi was facing a U.S. strategic trade reset with multiple options for replacement of Chinese goods and resources.  As a result, the Beijing trade delegation recognized President Trump had effectively neutered the scale of their economic power and influence over the U.S. economy.  Instead, the best play for big panda was to shake hands and come to agreeable terms.  WATCH:

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Playing into President Trump’s hands was/is the strains currently ongoing within the Chinese domestic economy.  Further friction against the USA would have weakened Chairman Xi domestically.

The missing piece of the puzzle is now Russia.

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White House Chair of the National Economic Council (NEC), Kevin Hassett, walked out to the press pool to discuss the latest excellent inflation figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today {BLS REPORT HERE}.  However, the insufferable press pool wanted to talk about other things.

I’ll get to the BLS data below – with a gold nugget just for you, don’t share it.  But first, NEC Director Hassett also let something slip in his responsive comments that most will miss.

When asked about Trump’s decision to terminate all trade negotiations with Canada, Hasset noted the discussions were frustrating, and “The Canadians were very difficult to negotiate with.” Then comes the key point (03:28), “The fact that we are now negotiating with Mexico, separately, reveals that it’s not just one add, there’s frustration that has built up.”

What Hassett just confirmed again, as if we needed more evidence, is that the trilateral trade agreement -the USMCA- is not going to exist once Trump opens it up for renegotiation.  The USA team is already working on a separate bilateral trade agreement between the USA and Mexico, proactively.  The USMCA is dead – we just have not made it official yet.  WATCH (prompted):

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On the inflation data, the September inflation rate was 0.3 percent, much lower than all economists and pundits predicted.  The tariffs are having no impact on the rise of consumer prices.  In fact, the sectors with the most imported goods are the sectors with the lowest inflation.

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Having provided deliberate advice and counsel quietly on these matters, it is important to continue watching the developments as they unfold.  There are trillions at stake.

President Trump’s global trade and economic reset is well underway. It is not an overstatement to say the western world economic structures within trade, banking and finance are in opposition to his efforts.  Alas, as we have outlined extensively, part of the larger phase of this reset will come in the likely dissolution of the U.S. Mexico, Canada trade agreement (USMCA).

Canada is taking actions to replace their U.S. trade relationship by aligning more with the EU and China.  This is a very dangerous approach for the Canadian people, because in the short-term there may be benefits; however, in the longer term the downsides are quite severe. Remember, Xi Jinping wanted Mark Carney to win the parliamentary election.

[SOURCE] – Canadian Foreign Minister’s visit to China promotes the warming of relations and new opportunities for educational cooperation! This is the most high-level contact between the two countries since 2018.

Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand paid an official visit to Beijing and held important talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The visit not only commemorates the 55th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Canada and China, but also marks the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the strategic partnership between the two countries. During the meeting, the two sides discussed issues such as trade, energy, environment and public health, laying the foundation for the “normalization” of Canada-China relations.

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Vice President JD Vance appears on Fox News with Maria Bartiromo to discuss current geopolitical events around the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Israel-Gaza conflict.

In the second segment of the interview (11:00 point), Vice President Vance gives his opinion on the Russiagate documents. Vance notes that he supports indictments as the IC and Clinton campaign violated multiple laws. Vance then discusses the latest information about using tariffs as leverage for America-First policy.

Vance dodges the question about running for President with Marco Rubio in 2028 and notes the leaks about the administration officials meeting for a discussion on Epstein was ‘fake news’.  Then, in a remarkable moment, Vance begins to talk about Artificial Intelligence from the perspective of his worrying about “the surveillance state” and the “invasions of privacy” that come with AI. WATCH:

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer hold a joint press conference in Stockholm after concluding the third-round of trade talks with Chinese officials.

The discussion and press availability covered U.S-China trade negotiations, economic cooperation and whether President Trump will meet Xi Jinping. Key moments include questions on tariffs, supply chains, and Beijing diplomacy. WATCH:

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Treasury Secretary Bessent notes as the U.S. economy continues strengthening, and as each trade deal with the U.K, Japan, ASEAN nations and Europe have cemented, the talks between the U.S. and China become more substantive.

With each global trade partner agreeing to terms of access to the USA market more pressure is naturally created on China to complete negotiations and affirm their position as supplier to the world’s largest market.

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It was always going to be difficult to balance the long-term illegal alien workforce removal against the contrasted aggressive ICE deportation operation.  President Trump’s two statements on the issue today highlight the difficult dynamic.

Just hours before President Trump noted the aggressive deportation operation would continue, he also noted there would be leniency for farm workers and those in the hospitality industry.  Suggesting, “some changes are coming.”

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President Donald Trump is confronting the dragon behind the panda mask with precision. It’s very obvious the prior reconnaissance, trade probes and tariff tests of ’17, ’18, ’19, are paying dividends.

President Trump has cut off the transnational shipping lanes by globalizing the tariffs against China. Beijing is in a forced holding pattern waiting to see the outcome of Southeast Asia and European trade agreements.

Having spent some serious time in the field in advance of ‘Liberty Day’ all of my contacts have the same message; China is trying to find position.

In a little reported reality, in order to offset the problem, many Chinese manufacturers have actually continued the production of several branded product lines (very well-known and established brands) despite the absence of orders for the finished goods from the companies.

Several shipments of those finished goods have started to arrive at China-partnered ports. This is very interesting, because it may lead to market dumping of a higher quality product than most anticipate.

Within the apparel sector, ASEAN consumers cannot afford the fashion branded product at the prices determined by the actual brand owners. However, there is now a strong likelihood -based on what is being reported by the receivers- that the product itself will be marketed -likely dumped- without the brand label. This is actually high-quality apparel distributed for a fraction of the price of the brand.

I’ll be getting more details on this soon, however, it looks like the broad outlines are verified by multiple sources. I’ll use some fake names to explain.

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I don’t want to say ‘I toldya so’, but….  Listen carefully to the answer to the first question at (05:00 minute mark) as President Trump responds to the question about the USMCA with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney next to him.  The USMCA is “effective, and it’s still effective, but people have to follow it,” inferring the issues of Canada as a tool to avoid China tariffs, President Trump said.

Then comes the part everyone will overlook as President Trump notes, “as you know it terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” Then comes the biggest statement, “this was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that”… “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.”  …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”  This presents the future of the USMCA and specifically the U.S-Canada aspect to the trade deal exactly as we anticipated.

President Trump is going to exit the trilateral USMCA in favor of two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements between the U.S and Mexico; and the U.S and Canada.  The only consideration now is the timing.  President Trump is 100% focused on the BIG ECONOMIC PICTURE; it’s not about the politics, it’s all about the economics. [Also pay attention to USTR Jamieson Greer]  WATCH:

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Prime Minister Mark Carney knows what is coming. His response about stepping up their military spending to meet NATO obligations is part of that dynamic.

The 51st state remarks were all about getting Canada into a position where Trump is about to open up two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements.  The relationship that Canada has with China is a major risk to Carney’s position.  Canada doesn’t stand a chance.  In essence, at the end of this journey of economics North American trade is going to be entirely different.

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