The missing aspect in all USMCA/CUSMA trade discussions is the simple fact that President Trump and U.S. Trade Ambassador Jamieson Greer would prefer bilateral trade agreements. The reason is simple and is highlighted in all the problems with the three-party USMCA.
Two countries can negotiate based on their individual interests; multiple country assemblies get complicated. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his “middle power” strategy of multiple interests assembling to create larger influence simply doesn’t work in trade discussion. That’s the bottom line.
Reuters is reporting the obvious. Mexico and the United States are racing to reach a bilateral trade deal before the U.S. midterm elections in less than eight weeks, according to six sources in both countries familiar with the talks, an effort made more urgent by the collapse of Canadian negotiations with Washington. Both USTR Jamieson Greer and President Trump have previously said the deal with Mexico would likely come first.
Mexico has played this very well. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has not participated in any antagonisms toward the U.S. position; they are simply negotiating for their best outcome. The Mexican government officials don’t try to hide their U.S. dependency under the misguided premise of patriotism. They understand the nature of the relationship.
If President Sheinbaum wants to keep a strong economy, she needs the USA. Both leaders want a trade agreement; it’s business beyond politics. Canada on the other hand is playing pure politics and trying to carve out a deal for themselves the rest of the world doesn’t have. Canada wants to be excluded from the baseline tariffs applied to everyone, that’s not going to happen.
