An interesting article in Japan Times reinforces several insider trade discussions that have been taking place over the past eighteen months.  Essentially, all trade deals with Canada are contingent upon their access to the USA market.  Lose the USMCA trade deal, and any trade terms between Asian and Canadian counterparts are null and void.

This is not the first time this background from key trade nations has been shared with Canada.  Japan told Canada last year that most sector trade, specifically the auto industry, was contingent upon tariff-free access to the U.S. market.  If Canada loses the USMCA, the terms of trade change completely.

This reality is now surfacing in comments directly from the Canadian trade teams and business insiders within Canada.  They are now admitting without the USMCA their leverage for trade with other countries disappears.  This is a considerable admission from within Canada government that has not yet become part of the average Canadian understanding.

If Canada loses their trade agreement with the USA, all other countries will modify their trade agreements with Canada.  Think about the leverage within that reality, overlay the Canadian government’s severe anti-Trump mindset, and you quickly realize just how dangerous Mark Carney is for Canada.

JAPAN TIMES – […] Carney’s push to lessen dependence on the U.S. is colliding with a stubborn reality: access to American markets remains a crucial part of Canada’s appeal to prospective trading partners, according to interviews with a dozen government officials and business leaders.

[…] Canadian officials acknowledge that the main draw for many potential trading partners is the prospect of gaining tariff-free access to the world’s largest market through Canada’s participation in ‌the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade ‌agreement.

Carney regularly touts Canada’s preferential access to the U.S. market, noting that more than 85% of bilateral trade remains tariff-free.

(more…)

A rather ironic sequence of events as Canada formally requests to renew the USMCA (CUSMA) trade agreement for 16-years, followed a day later by the U.S. announcing additional tariffs toward 60 countries including Canada.

On Tuesday, Dominic LeBlanc, the trade minister from Canada assigned to USMCA negotiations, traveled to Washington DC for a meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

LeBlanc, reflecting the obtuse nature the Canadian trade delegation is now well known for, seemed oblivious to the friction points in the U.S. position and formally requested the trade deal be renewed for another 16 years. {Citation}

LeBlanc called the agreement “highly beneficial” to all three countries. From the Canadian position this may be true, but that’s not even remotely what the U.S. team has presented in private and public comments.

Additionally, over the past two weeks the shift in Canadian strategy has become clearer.   While Carney’s administration previously seemed to be targeting Democrats in the U.S. congress to support retaining a trade agreement with Canada, that approach ended abruptly after several key Democrat senators began taking the position of influential U.S. labor unions who want the deal scrapped.  Canada now seems to be relying on pressure from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and corporate republicans to support their position.

The day after news reports of Dominic LeBlanc’s expressed position, USTR Greer announced a new round of 301 tariffs against 60 countries who participate in third-party trade agreements with countries who use forced labor. {Citation} Suddenly, Canada’s embrace of China becomes even more serious.

(more…)

The continual message from President Trump to President Claudia Sheinbaum has been clear, ‘clean it up or possibly we will’, as Trump has publicly and repeatedly said Sheinbaum and the Mexican government were under the control of Mexican cartels.

Following the daring capture of Venezuela dictator Nicholas Maduro, Mexican President Sheinbaum took notice.  In the past few months dozens of government officials and cartel members have been targeted, arrested, indicted, extradited and removed from positions of influence.

Today, Mexican Security Minister Omar García Harfuch announced the arrest of Cuautla Mayor Jesús Corona Damián (pictured left).

(Bloomberg) — Mexican authorities detained the mayor of a historic city near the capital, the latest move designed to show the government is rooting out corrupt politicians from its ranks.

Cuautla Mayor Jesús Corona Damián was arrested Saturday, Security Minister Omar García Harfuch wrote in a post on social media platform X. An arrest warrant had been issued by the general prosecutor’s office on May 20.

Corona was on the run in recent days, after the security ministry announced in May the arrests of other top officials in Morelos State. The moves are part of a broader operation under President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in 2024 with an anti-corruption message, to nab dozens of politicians taking part in extortion scams and with alleged ties to broader crime rackets.

“With this operation, more than 85 officials and former officials have been detained, including seven mayors currently in office,” García Harfuch said on X. “The government of Mexico maintains a policy of zero impunity regarding any links between authorities and criminal groups.”

(more…)

Mike Steger takes less than 20-minutes to walk through a year of President Trump’s multifaceted U.S. manufacturing policy initiatives that have positioned the U.S. economy for a massive surge in growth. Steger recaps several consequential moves by President Trump and his cabinet to fundamentally change economics in the Western Hemisphere. Each point is well delivered and well presented.

Steger then overlays the economic moves with the geopolitical moves in Venezuela (oil), Cuba (communism ended), Mexico (cartels, traffickers and corruption), Canada (globalism confronted) and finally Greenland (a new consulate is created). Put together, Steger notes how all of these move’s work together with a massive surge in energy, technology and productivity to create a hemispheric powerhouse within the United States. WATCH:

TIMESTAMPS
00:00 Intro
01:10 Volcker and the Origins of Globalization
02:30 NAFTA and the Collapse of Industrial America
04:05 Liberation Day and the Tariff Battle
05:30 China’s Rare Earth Weapon
06:45 Rebuilding American Industry

(more…)

Remember last weekend when we outlined how the sudden sense of urgency from Europe toward a trade agreement with Mexico? that agreement had little to do with purchasing row crops from Mexico, and everything to do with what Europe needs as access to the United States {Go Deep}.

The language being used by the United States trade office is specific. [SEE HERE] The first bilateral round of negotiations between the United States and Mexico for the USMCA free trade agreement has concluded. (Emphasis mine)

PRESS RELEASE – “MEXICO CITY — “Today, the United States and Mexico concluded the first bilateral round related to the Joint Review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The United States concluded discussions with the goals of reducing the trade deficit with Mexico and strengthening American supply chains. During this first round, negotiators discussed priority issues related to automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and economic security.

The United States and Mexico recognize the importance of advancing cooperation to enhance regulatory compatibility to strengthen sectors, including medical devices, pharmaceuticals, cosmetic products, and others.

We will continue advancing these discussions on June 16-17 in Washington, D.C., in addition to agriculture and a level playing field. The third round will be held during the week of July 20 in Mexico City.

The United States continues to emphasize the importance of ensuring the Agreement benefits U.S. manufacturers, farmers, ranchers, workers, service suppliers, and businesses of all sizes, and of addressing free-riding from third countries.” (source)

Currently, European automakers have billions invested in Mexican auto plants.  Much of the component material for those vehicles comes from Europe for assembly in Mexico.  That was the primary focus of the Europeans in their trade agreement with Mexico.

(more…)

I never quite understood just how controlled the information flow is inside Canada until about two years ago when we began closely monitoring Canadian positioning for the upcoming USMCA (CUSMA) renegotiation/cancellation.  It quickly became obvious the majority of Canadians have no idea why it is almost a certainty the U.S. would exit the trilateral arrangement and position for a bilateral free trade agreement.

In the two years that have passed, now we see a few Canadians starting to realize the core issues of trade conflict that make any FTA between the U.S. and Canada almost impossible.  The largest issue centers around Canada’s net-zero carbon legislation that now completely disconnects them from aligned North American energy policy between the U.S. and Mexico.

A trilateral agreement requires core alignment on industrial manufacturing, and that requires similar abilities & similar energy policy.  You cannot make steel, iron and aluminum without coal and gas.  You need joules for heavy industrial manufacturing that cannot be achieved without exploiting coal, gas or oil (carbon materials).  Canada’s energy policy no longer aligns with industrial manufacturing. This core issue cannot be resolved at the current level of energy policy in Canada.

There are other issues like Canadian trade deals with China, non-tariff barriers, legislated rules over intellectual property and other points of significant friction that make alignment within North America challenging. However, the energy component makes compatible trade impossible.

In the interview below, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra appears on a podcast with David Leis, for a blunt conversation about trade, pipelines, critical minerals, China, and why the U.S. is growing frustrated with Canada’s direction.  At the end Hoekstra even explains why he is doing Canadian podcasts; because information within Canada is restricted by the government control of media – and that explains why most Canadians are clueless about the issues.

I’ve prompted the interview to the point that gets into the details. If you are interested to be fully understanding of what is coming, this is a solid reference point. Also, if you have financial investments associated with Canada or any system that is connected to the economic relationship between the U.S. and Canada, you need to watch this interview to proactively defend your financial interests.  VIDEO PROMPTED:

.

Watch it or listen to this roughly 30 minutes (prompted) as you cook, drive or go about your day. But listen to it and see the disconnect between Canada and the USA as outlined.  Things are going to get much worse in this relationship as the finality of it all suddenly starts to sink in north of the border with the average Canadian.

(more…)

An interesting arrest that might warrant some background material prior to today’s events.  Keep in mind there are several indicted individuals from Venezuela and Mexico now said to be cooperating with the DOJ and federal law enforcement.

In addition to former Venezuela dictator Nicolas Maduro in the Southern District of New York, we should also note three Mexican officials connected to the Sinaloa cartel previously turned themselves in to U.S. federal officials and are said to be cooperating.

Earlier this month, Gerardo Mérida, a retired Mexican army general who served as public-security secretary in northwestern Sinaloa state surrendered in Tucson, Arizona. Enrique Inzunza Cazárez, who is also facing drug trafficking and weapon charges, was taken into custody in San Diego by the DEA. Sinaloa businessman Enrique Diaz Vega – another name from the SDNY indictment – also turned himself into U.S. authorities in Arizona.

As you read this story, also keep in mind the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency, falls under the authority of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, and that agency oversees a background check program, known as “continuous vetting.”

According to NBC News a 20-year veteran manger within the CIA named David Rush has been arrested on suspicion of embezzlement and theft.  The CIA operative was reported to have been referred to the FBI by CIA Director John Ratcliffe.

(VIA NBC) WASHINGTON — A former CIA senior officer with top secret-level clearance has been accused of secretly stashing millions of dollars in gold bars in his home that he said he needed for “work-related expenses,” according to court documents and two people familiar with his employment history.

David Rush, who held a management position, was charged with criminal theft of public money in a complaint filed last week in the Eastern District of Virginia. His lawyer didn’t respond to a request for comment.  He was also accused of lying to his employers about his background for nearly two decades.

(more…)

It’s not Mexico that needs a trade deal with Europe, it’s the opposite.

For almost two decades Europe has been investing heavily inside Mexico, particularly noted in the auto industry, as they positioned themselves to take advantage of NAFTA and later the USMCA as an entry to the U.S. market.

European auto companies spent billions on assembly plants in Mexico, where they could ship EU manufactured component goods to be assembled into NAFTA/USMCA compliant vehicles.  As President Trump and USTR Greer begin focusing on eliminating the USMCA trade agreement in favor of two bilateral deals (U.S-Canada and U.S-Mexico), Europe now needs to protect prior investment.

The prior Mexico-EU trade agreement has existed since 2000 (NAFTA timeframe).  In 2025 they agreed to a revised Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and finalized the terms and conditions yesterday.

MEXICO CITY, May 22 (Reuters) – Mexico and the European Union signed a long-stalled free trade agreement on Friday as they seek to decrease dependence on the U.S. and partially insulate themselves from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The accord, which they reached broad agreement on in 2025 but have delayed signing, expands a Mexico-EU trade accord from 2000, which covered only industrial goods. The new pact adds services, government procurement, digital trade, investment and farm produce.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa are to sign the deal in Mexico City in their first summit in over a decade.

(more…)

This is not good news for Canada who appears to be hoping that leftists in congress will support the Canadian position on retention of the USMCA trade deal.  However, the position of the United Auto Workers and their President Shawn Fain works perfectly with the position of President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

The UAW leadership supported Kamala Harris in 2024, and they carry a lot of sway with Democrats in congress.  In fact, it is entirely possible the 20 Democrat Senators who wrote a letter to USTR Greer about getting tough on Mexico and Canada, may have been responding directly to what UAW President Shawn Fain is demanding.

The UAW rank and file align with President Trump and their leadership, despite their roots of alignment with Democrats, support the trade tariff approach by President Trump.  All of that nuanced interest now begins to assemble quickly, and the political leverage plan of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney looks weaker by the day.

Wall Street Journal – As North America’s trade treaty approaches renewal or renegotiation this summer, United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain slammed the deal and called on the U.S. to upend it—or scrap it altogether.

Fain’s position pits the 400,000-member union against both the American and foreign-based automakers that are calling on the U.S. to preserve the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade treaty, or USMCA.

[…] Fain blamed USMCA and its predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement, for the loss of millions of American auto manufacturing jobs over the last several decades.

“Where it didn’t eliminate jobs entirely, it slashed wages and benefits,” said Fain, wearing a “Kill NAFTA” T-shirt on a video call. “There is no future for the U.S. working class that doesn’t address the free-trade disaster.”

(more…)

Somewhere along the path to the inevitable dissolution of the USMCA trilateral trade agreement, reality will set in for Canada.  Until then, denial is the preferred course of action from Prime Minister Mark Carney.  Not since COVID-19 have we witnessed an intellectual disassociation happening over such a large sector of a population.

According to the latest media reports, Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to announce a new Canadian Trade Advisory Council that will strategize the best moves within each sector of the Canadian economy to deal with the United States USMCA renegotiations.  Even at this latest date, the Canadian government is still under the belief they can negotiate themselves into a position where their status within the USMCA (CUSMA) will be retained.

Simultaneous to this announcement, the one best hope the Canadians have relied upon is also evaporating.  However, before discussing that aspect, let’s first look at the advisory council.

CANADA – Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to unveil a new advisory council focused on Canada-US trade relations as Ottawa attempts to salvage Canadian-US trade amidst Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs. According to reports, the council will bring together major business leaders, labour representatives and former politicians to advise the federal government ahead of the scheduled review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

[…] While the entire list of figures present on the council has yet to be announced, the Government of Canada first announced the advisory committee in April 2026, and released a partial list of members. Members reportedly include Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, former Quebec premier Jean Charest, and other representatives from sectors such as energy, manufacturing and forestry. There are also multiple high-level Canadian executives present on the list released by the Prime Minister’s office on April 21. The committee will be chaired by Dominic LeBlanc, who currently serves as minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade and intergovernmental affairs. According to the Prime Minister’s Office, the council’s role will be to provide strategic advice and industry expertise as Canada prepares for negotiations under the umbrella of Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats.

(more…)