The U.S-Canada negotiations ended today without any progress.  President Trump delivers a video message about trade:

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Foreign Minister Chrystia from Canada is in Washington DC today meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.  There are conflicting reports as to the possibility of a trade deal being reached.  Canada is heavily relying on internal pressure from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce lobbying group to sway/leverage the negotiation in their favor.

From the Canadian negotiation position every syllable and syntax is viewed through the prism of politics.  From comments amid all the Canadian participants and interests, they view President Trump as the only adversarial U.S. entity in the bilateral discussion. As a consequence of this outlook, all Canadian leverage efforts are targeted toward political opposition of President Trump; with assistance from a U.S. congress that has been purchased by Wall Street lobbyists to align with Canada against U.S. interests.
Peel all the layers away and ultimately this is the political position from which Canada is negotiating.  All-in-All, the most likely outcome is NO DEAL.
In order for Canada to accept or join, via a NAFTA 2202 modification, they would need to agree to the U.S-Mexico modification terms. For Canada they would have to:
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A year ago it seemed almost impossible to see a trade agreement with Mexico that would facilitate the interests of both countries. However, with the successful election of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), a remarkable populist shift dramatically changed the landscape within the Mexican economic outlook and policy.

President Trump’s tweet today hints toward a much bigger picture we have recently been discussing.  Against the likelihood Canada will not join the U.S-Mexico trade agreement. The Mexican government is affirming their intent to go forward with a bilateral trade deal if needed because the U.S-Mexico joint agreement is in their best interests.  According to Mexico’s Chief Negotiator, Kenneth Smith-Ramos:

“We hope the U.S. and Canada will conclude their bilateral negotiation shortly. If that is not possible we are ready to advance bilaterally with the U.S … the agreement in principle that we closed with the U.S. is positive for Mexico because it preserves free trade and modernizes our trade agreement …”

Outgoing Mexican President Peña Nieto, structured his economic policy around accepting multinational corporate investment, facilitating the requests of Wall Street investment banks, and the predictable parasitic outcomes that follow. Exfiltration of wealth and exploitation of resources/labor are an outcropping of predatory multinational trade exploitation, ie. “globalism”.
Retention of the multinational schemes generally leads to massive corruption. In the U.S. this corruption is known as “lobbying”, in Mexico the process is called ‘bribery’; however, the activity is the same.
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According to a CBC article citing a “Senior Canadian Official”, the Trudeau government is completely “comfortable” missing an October 1st deadline to join the U.S-Mexico trade alliance:

…”The source who spoke to CBC News on background, due to the sensitivity of the talks, said the external political pressure “is not a good enough reason,” for Canada to be forced into a fast finish.”… (more)

This statement follows a series of actions by Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and Justin Trudeau which highlights their intent to resist any trade agreement while counting on domestic politics to deliver electoral forgiveness.  Indeed for all intents and purposes it would appear Justin and Chrystia are willing to damage their economy for political benefit.
Meanwhile the Mexican government is affirming their intent to go forward with a bilateral trade deal if needed because the U.S-Mexico joint agreement is in their best interests.  According to Mexico’s Chief Negotiator, Kenneth Smith-Ramos:

“We hope the U.S. and Canada will conclude their bilateral negotiation shortly. If that is not possible we are ready to advance bilaterally with the U.S … the agreement in principle that we closed with the U.S. is positive for Mexico because it preserves free trade and modernizes our trade agreement …”

A year ago it seemed almost impossible to see an agreement with Mexico that would facilitate the interests of both countries.  However, with the successful election of Mexican President Lopez-Obrador, a remarkable populist shift dramatically changed the landscape within the Mexican economic outlook and policy.
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Bloomberg reported earlier today that President Trump was likely to pull the trigger on round #2 of tariffs against $200 billion in Chinese imported goods. Duh. Surprise fail. President Trump has not bluffed on a single tariff initiative since he started executing new U.S. trade policies to reset all trade relationships.
According to Jennifer Jacobs reporting (one of the few reliable) Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Lighthizer met Thursday to review the current status of ongoing trade deals. This is a good nugget, because it’s likely that same meeting contained the forward instructions toward Lighthizer for the Canada discussions.
According to the report, President Trump, Ross and Lighthizer are adjusting the specifics of the $200 billion Chinese products targeted based on the two-weeks of domestic feedback they received. I would actually anticipate a combination of increased tariffs on the Round #1 sector (25% on $50 billion), and the application of new sectors within the $200 billion Round #2 target.

• Reuters Article Here
• Bloomberg Article Here
• USTR Prior Notification Here

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A column written by journalist John Ivison yesterday reflected how Justin and Chrystia from Canada appeared to be intentionally politicizing their trade negotiations in an effort to gain favor from domestic left-wing supporters.  In essence, Justin made a decision to advance his political interests even if it means destroying the Canadian economy.
Providing a stark example as evidence toward that motive Ivison wrote: “How else to explain [Freeland’s] appearance at Monday’s Women in the World summit in Toronto, on a panel entitled Taking on the Tyrant?”  Today Ezra Levant and Manny Montenegrino discuss the exact same example:

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Jumpin’ ju-ju bones.  Hat Tip to Ezra Levant on Twitter – This is going to go down in the history books of bad diplomacy.  You have to watch the first 2 minutes of this video.  Canadian Foreign Minister took leave during the middle of critically important trade negotiations with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to attend a Women in the World conference in Toronto.
Check out the conference introduction video (first 01:30) “Taking on the Tyrant”, and the visual of Canadian trade negotiator on stage to deliver her remarks (next 30 seconds).  Consider that Ms. Freeland made this decision during the most critical trade negotiations in her country’s modern history.  The outcome of the U.S-Canada trade negotiation will determine the next several decades within the Canadian economy.  Now Watch:

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Think about the level of ideological tone-deafness here. This is simply off-the-charts echo-chamber crazy. Canada needs a positive trade outcome; their economy is already on the ropes; and Freeland considers this a good idea?  Unreal.
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Justin from Canada has drawn a line-in-the-sand during negotiations toward a U.S-Canada trade agreement. Justin has stated that any market negotiations must necessarily exclude the “Candian Cultural Industries”; those industries cover telecommunications and media. Justin will not allow any media competition within Canada.
On the Ezra Levant Show he is joined in a pragmatic discussion with Frank H. Buckley, Foundation Professor at the Antonin Scalia Law School, George Mason University, to discuss a recent appearance on the Canadian Broadcast Channel where he criticized the Liberals’ incompetence during the NAFTA negotiations.

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Ezra Levant from Rebel Media outlines even more evidence of Justin from Canada taking specific steps to intentionally sabotage the Canadian economy.  A few days ago Mr. Levant posited some interesting considerations:  If Justin were NOT intentionally trying to bring hardship to Canadians, what would he be doing differently?

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After this broadcast the employment report from the Canadian government was published.  The economy lost 52,000 jobs in August alone.  Read THIS to see just one example of Justin destroying 8,000 Canadian jobs in a 24 hour period:  “Eight thousand jobs disappeared this morning, and one of them was mine.” MORE
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In case anyone was wondering, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is in Europe talking trade with the European Union.  Within the delegation of trade negotiation, the EU trade agreement is designated to Ross, while USTR Lighthizer covers Canada and Mexico and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is holding point on China.  Secretary Ross is getting the royalty treatment in Greece today.

Meanwhile, Ambassador Robert Lighthizer is still engaged with Chrystia from Canada as negotiations continue to see if a U.S-Canada trade deal is possible.  He must have the patience of Job. The 52,000 lost Canadian jobs announced today has shifted the landscape a little.  Canada appears slightly more likely to back-away from prior demands to carve out the Canadian Dairy industry and continue the process of protectionist tariffs.
Ms. Freeland is heading back to Canada tonight, leaving her negotiation team in DC to continue working.  However, Canada still demands to exempt their “cultural industries”, telecommunications and media sectors, from any trade agreement. The issues for Canada to join the U.S-Mexico agreement are/were:

• open their telecommunications and banking sector (eliminate non tariff barriers).
• eliminate soft-wood (lumber) and aeronautics federal subsidies.
• begin a process of lowering their assembly use of Chinese/Asian goods.
• accept the rules of origin for North American manufacturing.
• eliminate protectionist tariffs on dairy and farm products.
• accept the U.S-Mexico terms for arbitration and dispute resolution.

The Telecommunications/media sector is non-negotiable according to Justin from Canada. There may be flexibility within banking (not much information).  The lumber and aeronautics subsidies could be dropped.  Rules of origin are non-negotiable for President Trump.  Protectionist tariffs on dairy and farm products are the current issue being discussed.  Dispute resolution is an outstanding issue.
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