Today President Trump welcomed FIFA President Gianni Infantino and U.S. Soccer President Carlos Cordeiro to the White House for a meeting and discussion of the 2026 World Cup.
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[Transcript] Oval Office – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much. We very much appreciate the fact that we have won a very important event: the World Cup in 2026. And we’ll be hosting it along with Mexico and Canada. And it’s a very special event. I think it’s probably certainly one of the biggest, and maybe the biggest sporting event in the world.
And soccer has come such a long way. Soccer is a game — I guess you call it “football.” But, over here, maybe at some point, they’ll change the name. I’m not sure, but we’ll see. (more…)
As Foreign Minister Chrystia from Canada arrives in Washington DC to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is interviewed by CNBC.
Triple Play: Finalize NAFTA (or two bilats); fill in the details on previously agreed EU deal; then face-down red dragon (China).
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Additionally, Mnuchin had some impromptu remarks (below): (more…)
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow holds an impromptu press gaggle at the White House to field questions about trade and related MAGAnomic matters.
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Additionally Kudlow had some scheduled media appearances (below). (more…)
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox News to discuss the U.S-Mexico trade agreement and the unlikely possibility of Canada to join the agreement. In order for Canada to join the agreement they would need to remove protectionist tariffs (dairy); remove subsidies to several sectors (lumber, aeronautics); and in large measure open their economy to free, fair and reciprocal trade.
Additionally, The Wall Street corporations who have exploited NAFTA for strategic financial advantage are unhappy with the removal of the NAFTA loopholes.
By choosing politics over fundamental trade economics Justin and Chrystia from Canada have painted themselves into an isolated position on the renegotiated North American Trade deal. Here’s the basic Canadian conundrum.
The U.S. and Mexico have agreed to manufacturing origination terms; wage and labor improvements; elimination of AG subsidies and non tariff barriers; and removal of all protectionist tariffs – so long as the structural terms of commerce are upheld.
In order for Canada to join the U.S. Mexico deal they would need to:
(1) eliminate soft-wood subsidies in the lumber sector;
(2) eliminate protectionist tariffs in the AG (Dairy) sector;
(3) accept the 75% rules of origin, eliminating the NAFTA loophole;
(4) agree to the enforcement mechanisms for all the above;
(5) allow U.S. banks to operate in Canada (financial sector).
Each of these five issues, now locked-in and agreed by the U.S. and Mexico are “take-it-or-leave-it” terms for Canada to join. There’s almost no-way, given the politicization of the Canadian plan, for Justin and Chrystia to agree to those terms and keep their fragmented political support base appeased.
Therefore, absent total acquiescence, it is likely Canada will keep their soft-wood lumber subsidies, keep their protectionist Dairy tariffs, keep their banking rules blocking U.S. access, and face a 25% duty on U.S. auto imports – effectively destroying their auto manufacturing sector. Car companies (ex. Toyota) will simply leave Canada and return to building/assembling in the U.S.
Here’s the content from a conference call filling in more details: (more…)
So much good news:WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The trade deal between the United States and Mexico will stand even if Canada does not come to an agreement with the Trump administration in the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico’s foreign minister said on Monday.
“If for any reason the government of Canada and the United States do not reach an agreement, we already know that there will still be a deal between Mexico and the United States.”
~ Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray (link)
Remember those “private meetings” between Jesus Seade and Robert Lighthizer?
It is said: a picture is worth a thousand words. Cue the audio visual:
The incoming Mexican President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador,(AMLO)’s representative is Jesus Seade. The outgoing Mexican President Pena Nieto’s representative is Mexican Secretary of Economy Idelfonso Guajardo.
Why the joy in Seade and the defeated Guajardo? The answer is inthe details:
One of President Trump’s principal objectives in the renegotiation is to ensure the agreement benefits American workers. The United States and Mexico have agreed to a Labor chapter that brings labor obligations into the core of the agreement, makes them fully enforceable, and represents the strongest provisions of any trade agreement.
Key Achievement: Worker Representation in Collective Bargaining
The Labor chapter includes an Annex on Worker Representation in Collective Bargaining in Mexico, under which Mexico commits to specific legislative actions to provide for the effective recognition of the right to collective bargaining.
In direct relationship to the checkbook policy that impacts middle-class Americans the U.S./Mexico trade deal is the biggest win so far in Trump’s presidency. There are such massive ramifications it could take days for anyone to comprehend how the granular details have such massive downstream consequences. The deal is incredibly complex.
At the 30,000 ft level, the deal positions Mexico to retain their current multinational investments, and through a series of sector-by-sector standards on origination the deal simultaneously closes the fatal NAFTA loophole. The agreement makes an economic manufacturing partnership between the U.S. and Mexico; and for assembly products third parties will have to produce parts and origination material within the U.S. and Mexico.
U.S.T.R. Lighthizer has put some details forward:
♦The NAFTA Loophole closure is explained in Summary Form HERE; with emphasis on the Auto-Sector. The key is a 75% part origination level for auto-assembly; and a 40-45% level for parts with a minimum $16/hr wage rate. The source-origination rate (75%) is even higher than all previously forecast negotiation results.
Example of downstream consequences/benefits: German auto-maker BMW recently built a $2 billion assembly plant in Mexico (almost complete). Most of their core parts were coming from the EU (steel/aluminum casting components) and/or Asia (electronics). Now the assembly plant will have to source 75% of the auto-parts from the U.S. and Mexico, with 45% of those parts from facilities paying $16/hr. Result: BMW will need to modify their supply chain and build auto parts in the U.S. and Mexico. (more…)
Promises made, promises kept. The CTH community is in a unique position to understand exactly what has taken place today as President Donald Trump announces the termination of NAFTA and simultaneously announces a bilateral trade agreement has been made between the U.S. and Mexico. This is exactly what CTH predicted. Most, not all, but most of the media are absolutely clueless.
In an Oval Office announcement today President Trump put outgoing Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto on his speaker phone as the press watched in the Oval Office. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Mexican Secretary of Economy Idelfonso Guajardo, and the key figure for incoming Mexican President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), Jesus Seade was present for the announcement.
CTH will have much more on the details of the trade agreement. This is the most comprehensive and complex trade agreement in U.S. history. However, in the interim here’s the full video of the announcement (including nuance). ENJOY:
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[Transcript] Oval Office – 11:09 A.M. EDT – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Hello everybody. It’s a big day for trade, a big day for our country. A lot of people thought we’d never get here because we all negotiate tough. We do, and so does Mexico. And this is a tremendous thing.
This has to do — they used to call it NAFTA. We’re going to call it the United States-Mexico Trade Agreement, and we’ll get rid of the name NAFTA. It has a bad connotation because the United States was hurt very badly by NAFTA for many years. And now it’s a really good deal for both countries, and we look very much forward to it. (more…)
When discussing or reviewing trade deals, particularly NAFTA, it is important to remember two baselines: (1) The trade reset is President Trump’s personal legacy initiative; it’s personal – ignore media banter – it’s personal; like, the most important thing he ever thinks about. Always. 24/7. (2) President Trump has no multinational corporations or financial interests with leverage/influence over his decision-making.
There are trillions at stake.
We begin:
“We are already looking at all the issues. We might close this, not in a matter of hours, but these days. We still have next week,” Jesus Seade, designated chief negotiator of Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, told reporters.
Here’s where it becomes important to note that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has twice asked Jesus Seade to remain AFTER hours when all other trade officials have concluded discussions. Closed-door conversations between Lighthizer and Seade; and no-one else. [Refer back to the two Trump baselines again]
Next, before reviewing the comments and presentations of the media regarding the U.S. Mexico NAFTA status; again reference the team approach, and the division of responsibility. Today, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross is meeting with the twitchy Chinese delegation – again, their arrival is not a matter of scheduling happenstance; it is directly related to the ongoing 301 hearings that began two-days-ago, Monday. (more…)
Under the auspices of making moves to block election interference from outside interests the government of Justin from Canada is moving to block internet content critical of Trudeau and his policies.
Simultaneously and ironically, the same Canadian government is spending millions lobbying U.S. politicians in Washington DC to retain their one-sided NAFTA trade benefits. Funny that, eh?
CANADA […] Among other things, the government wants to do more to ensure foreign actors or money aren’t involved in elections, require more transparency for political messaging on social media and prevent political parties from setting up ostensible advocacy groups to support them and help skirt spending limits.
