This is an interesting potential shift in energy position for the European Union. There has been zero investment by the EU nations in oil refining capacity. Simultaneously, Europe is now realizing they need diesel and jet fuel.

Under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), refineries have an ever-diminishing cap on carbon emissions, and they receive fewer ‘free’ pollution allowances over time.

This means oil refining costs go up steadily, increasing the cost of operating the dirty carbon facilities, while these same refineries must adhere to stricter environmental rules and pollution limits under the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED). The entire regulatory system was created to eliminate gasoline, diesel and eventually jet fuel.

As the EU is now discovering, their climate change policies have been executed but the global and EU drop in demand has not occurred at the same pace. The EU is now in a position where the percentage of their own oil refining production is lower than their needs. More energy dependency has been created.

With the EU energy analysts now saying they don’t have the fuel capacity to support the political demands for a war with Russia, in combination with President Trump continually affirming the U.S. will not get involved in any expanded conflict, the European Union is now reevaluating how to increase domestic fuel production.

EUROPE – Over the past couple of decades, Europe has pursued some of the world’s most ambitious clean energy policies, aiming to become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Hardly surprisingly, Europe is now further along the clean energy transition compared to its western peers, with renewables accounting for roughly half of the continent’s power mix compared to about 26% by the U.S. However, Europe is now being forced to reckon with its decision to ditch some of its fossil fuel assets as yet another global energy crisis unfolds just years after the 2022 energy crisis.

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During the two-day G-20 summit of Foreign Ministers, Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds a press conference to answer questions from the international press pool.  The questions and answers are wide ranging about multiple regions from Europe and Russia to India, Iran and beyond.  WATCH:

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Remember when former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told President Trump the Canadian government could not continue its economic policy if the United States demanded they become self-sufficient.

One of the key reasons cited by Trudeau was the Canadian dependence on the USA for defense.  Canada simply could not spend the amount of money needed to create their own military at a level required for independent defense and simultaneously follow their govt spending plan.  Canada relied on the U.S. military as their defense strategy.

Yesterday, former British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the same thing; only this time Starmer was saying the United States is no longer willing to “bankroll” Europe’s defense and both the U.K and European Union were going to need to find money to build their own military.

(VIA BBC) – Sir Keir Starmer has said Europe should build a common security framework, warning the change in its defence relationship with the US is permanent rather than “an aberration of the Trump presidency”.

The former prime minister was speaking at a British Irish Chamber of Commerce (BICC) dinner in Dublin on Friday evening.

Sir Keir said a “common security framework” for Europe was needed as much as a common market, with the UK at its centre.

He warned that “things will not go back to the way they were,” adding that the US had made clear it will no longer “bankroll” its European allies. (read more)

This public statement and admission by Keir Starmer follow remarks by current Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to Politico on the heels of the Canadian-EU summit, also yesterday.

“If you’re connected to a satellite system that a billionaire, almost trillionaire, decides to turn off at one moment or not, that’s not a good idea,” Carney said. (source)

Think about this for a few moments.  Canada, the U.K and Europe are all facing the same problem…. MONEY!  Where are they going to come up with the funds to pay for a military investment they have declined to make for the past 50+ years?

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Canada is in a really weird place and I’ve all but given up trying to understand it.  At a certain point you just have to accept that Prime Minister Mark Carney is operating on an agenda for that country that is disconnected from all traditional perspectives around national best interest.

For example, the Canadian trade relationship with the single state of Texas, USA, is larger than the total Canadian trade relationship with the European Union, yet Carney is spending an inordinate amount of time chasing a trade deal with the EU that is never going to amount to anything.  Seriously, it’s a literal dead-end.

First, there’s not a scintilla of alignment between the USMCA (Canada says CUSMA) and the European Union.  There’s two entirely different sets of economic baselines, standards, rules and regulations between trading with the United States and trading with the EU.  If Canada wants a trade relationship with the USA, they have to give up trying to structure their economy to align with the EU; both systems are entirely different.

Canada cannot have a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU that contains structural regulations on the flow of goods that substantively restricts Canadian products from entering the USA.  The same issue exists with China.

Now, if Canada wants to separate from the North American trade agreement, then by all means – go for the deal with the EU and/or China.  However, as long as Canada wants to retain their USA dependencies and benefits, there’s no mechanism that permits an FTA of substance with Europe or China.  Mark Carney cannot have it both ways.

Secondly, do you remember when CTH noted the second quarter GDP for Canada appeared to be entirely manipulated by the movement of Dutch Central Bank gold from Ottawa to London.  People laughed at me for noticing the timing and the mysterious (completely unexplained) gain in economic output in the second quarter.  Q4 2025 was flat, Q1 2026 was negative, then mysteriously Q2 had a bounce – and, well, now Q3 is showing a return to flatline or negative.

OTTAWA—Canada’s economy cooled in the latest quarter after activity unexpectedly stalled two months running and early data points to a slight contraction in September.

Gross domestic product was essentially unchanged in August from the month before at 2.372 trillion Canadian dollars, the equivalent of US$1.695 trillion, Statistics Canada said on Friday.  That was softer than the 0.2% expansion expected by economists following a similarly flat result in July.

The national data agency’s advance data indicates output edged down 0.1% in September.

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What I find very interesting in this Reuters “exclusive” report are the specific Baltic states mentioned.  From the article:

….”Among the nations that have received messages urging them ‌to keep public statements in check are Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.” …

I would remind readers of the recent 1,000 drones supposedly deployed from Western Ukraine that flew through the airspace of this exact group of nations to attack St Petersburg, Russia. {GO DEEP}

CTH said at the time that given the logistics involved it was far more likely the drones were delivered to, and launched from, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia before crossing into Russian territory.

…“if you accept the narrative, the 1,000+ drones took off from western Ukraine, flew north through Poland, crossed Lithuania (a few crashed there) and then Latvia, and finally turned east toward St Petersburg from Estonia at the very end; again, presumably, to avoid Russian air defenses.

This complicated 1,000+ drone operation happened at exactly the same time Zelenskyy was creating a very specific narrative about being allowed to use Starshield for these types of targeting operations.” ~CTH October 20th

Is it just a coincidence that a report surfaces saying the Pentagon has requested these same three specific EU nations to stop their antagonisms as President Trump tries to come to a diplomatic resolution to this conflict?

Oct 30 (Reuters) – Pentagon officials have in recent weeks asked several NATO countries to tone down their rhetoric regarding the threat posed by Russia, ​arguing that some statements by European leaders and officials have undermined continental security, four people familiar with the matter said.

Among the nations that have received messages urging them ‌to keep public statements in check are Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity. It was not clear if the messages, which were delivered in bilateral meetings, were conveyed to other European governments.

The US requests come as the Trump administration restarts an effort to press for a negotiated end to the full-scale war in Ukraine, now well into its fifth year. The latest push has blended incentives for Russia – including sanctions relief – with pressure on Ukraine ​to halt its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

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We suspected there would be something slightly more substantive from the Russian readout of the phone call between Vladimir Putin, Alexander Stubb and Jonas Störe.  You can read the Nordic readout here.

Here’s the Russian version: “President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of the Republic of Finland Alexander Stubb and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Norway Jonas Gahr Störe at the request of the Finnish and Norwegian sides.”

“There was an exchange of views on settling the Ukraine crisis in light of Vladimir Putin’s talks with US Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg on October 21 as well as Alexander Stubb and Jonas Gahr Störe’s own recent contacts with Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Zelensky in Oslo.

The parties welcomed the agreement to resume trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in Abu Dhabi in early to mid November, intended in particular to discuss ways to ensure the security of both Russia and Ukraine once a complete cessation of hostilities is reached.

Vladimir Putin assessed the current situation in the Ukraine conflict zone, reiterating its root causes and emphasising that a just and lasting peace would be possible only if the interests of the Russian Federation are considered in full and without any conditions attached. In addition, he noted the EU and NATO’s confrontational policies which result in prolonging the hostilities.

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It will be more interesting to review the official readout from Russia, because as you can see below the readout from Finland and Norway is full of generalized words with no substance about the issues discussed.

Finland President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre had a telephone conversation with Russian Federation President, Vladimir Putin.  Here is the readout from the Finland/Norway side:

[TRANSLATED, Via Finland]: “On Tuesday, 27 October 2026, President of the Republic Alexander Stubb and Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre held a telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. The call was a follow-up to the meeting held in Oslo on 20 October. Ukraine was consulted in the preparation of the call.

President Stubb and Prime Minister Støre initiated the call to discuss Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and diplomatic efforts to end the war and promote peace and stability in Europe.

Finland and Norway are Russia’s neighbours, and both countries are staunch supporters of Ukraine. The aim of the call was to convey Ukraine’s messages about the upcoming peace talks in Abu Dhabi directly to President Putin.

President Stubb and Prime Minister Støre participated in the call as leaders of their countries, and they did not act as representatives of Europe.

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Elon Musk responded to an account on the X Platform [SEE HERE] that made a good point about how Zelenskyy’s unauthorized use of Starlink commercial satellites can create a downstream issue that is not being discussed.

FilmLadd – “Analysts who have been bashing Elon Musk for days over this don’t get it. Russia has the capacity to blow up satellites in space. They proved this on November 15, 2021, by firing a PL-19 Nudol missile at an old satellite of their own.

The impact created a large debris cloud—more than 1,500 trackable fragments plus hundreds of thousands of smaller pieces. The International Space Station was forced to implement safe-haven procedures: the seven-person crew (including Russian cosmonauts) sealed hatches and sheltered in the docked Soyuz and Crew Dragon spacecraft for several hours as the debris cloud repeatedly crossed their orbital path.

The ISS even had to perform thruster burns on multiple occasions over the following months to avoid the debris cloud orbiting the Earth.

If Russia decides that the civilian Starlink satellite network is weaponized and fair game, we risk a serious Kessler syndrome. First modeled by NASA’s Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais in 1978, it describes a scenario in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit gets so high that collisions start producing debris faster than natural processes (mainly atmospheric drag) can remove.

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Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party leader Alice Weidel represents the opposition leader within the current German political system.  The AfD party is on the rise within Germany as the severe leftist and globalist policies carried out by Chancellors Angela Merkel, Olaf Schulz and Friedrich Merz have severely compromised the German economy.

Beginning with the catastrophic energy policy decisions, Ms. Weidel walks through the problems currently being faced by country of Germany and the urgent policy changes needed in order to attempt recovery.  Thousands of businesses along with industrial manufacturing are currently collapsing.  The economic spiral is shedding tens-of-thousands of jobs, and the bureaucracy of the European Union is compounding their ability to respond effectively.

Germany has always represented the economic engine of the EU, and as a nation the primary prism by which the German people evaluate their status is through the prism of economics.  From that perspective Germany is in severe trouble.  AfD party leader Alice Weidel outlines the structural reforms needed in order to get out of this economic mess.  WATCH:

“Alice Weidel is one of the most important politicians in Europe today. She is the co-leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the right-wing populist party which is leading in Germany’s national polls and came top in two recent state elections. Ms Weidel is skilled at voicing Germans’ frustrations with mainstream political parties. In conversation with Zanny Minton Beddoes, The Economist’s editor-in-chief, in the Bundestag in Berlin, Ms Weidel discusses the AfD’s economic plan and its stance on Russia and Ukraine.”

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In a series of posts to his X account, Elon Musk has called the baby ugly as it pertains to Ukraine and the DC system that benefits from the continued funding exploits.  This response appears to be pushback against those who are blaming him for restricting the use of Starlink systems.

[SOURCE]

A few hours before this post, the Wall Street Journal published yet another article on the Starlink/Starshield dynamic where they attempted to walk back part of their prior false reporting – yet frame the new information as Musk was still to blame.

(VIA WSJ) – The Ukrainian military says the disruption of its use of Starlink satellites is having a significant impact on Kyiv’s defenses against Russia’s invasion. The slowdown triggered a wave of finger-pointing, much of it focused on the difference between SpaceX’s better-known Starlink service for consumers and its Starshield service for government users.

SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk ordered the slowdown and discussed the decision in a call with President Trump, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. U.S. officials said Trump called Musk Wednesday and asked him to lift restrictions. But Ukrainian officials said they were still suffering from low-speed limits early on Friday.

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