The Canadian dollar is starting to feel the effects of long-term uncertainty. It will get worse.

...”Since the start of June, the currency has weakened 2.9%, which would be its steepest monthly decline since October 2024, as Canadian bond yields fell further below U.S. yields.”… {source}

Now, this is where you really need to pay attention to details.  Remember, the U.K and EU have a vested interest in protecting Canada from economic collapse.

President Trump doesn’t want immediate collapse either -because Xi will move in fast- but Trump is not going to provide the same financial and economic lifelines that the other four-eyes will trigger.

Reuters is reporting that tomorrow the U.S. will formally declare a “non-extension” of the USMCA trade agreement {ARTICLE} and that triggers a 10-year period to decoupling.  It is very important to understand there is a difference between announcing a “non-extension” and announcing a “withdrawal“.  The Canadians are completely confused about what is about to happen.

In a non-extension announcement, the USA is saying they do not want to extend or renew the terms of the agreement beyond the current trade agreement terms.  Yes, this is a 10-year exit.  However, that’s not the part that matters.  Announcing a decision to exit the USMCA (CUSMA), a full withdrawal from the trilateral deal, triggers a six-month countdown to exit.

The deadline to announce the decision to extend is tomorrow, July 1st.  There is no deadline on the timeline to announce an exit or withdrawal from the USMCA. That announcement can happen at any time.

Put simply, announcing a non-renewal is a 10-year exit.  Announcing a withdrawal is a 6-month exit.  The announcement to withdraw can come at any time after the statement of non-renewal.

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At issue in Trump v Cook is not whether Lisa Cook can appeal her removal, but rather where her position rests while the appeal is underway.  Does she work for the govt? Or is she technically removed from govt, pending appeal?

The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Lisa Cook remaining in her position as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors whom President Donald Trump had attempted to fire. By a vote of 5-4 [PDF HERE] [the court says Cook can continue to remain in her job while her challenge to Trump’s removal moves forward.

Chief Justice John Roberts delivered the opinion of the Court, and SOTOMAYOR, KAGAN, KAVANAUGH and JACKSON concurred.

Justice Clarence Thomas filed a dissenting opinion. ALITO filed a dissenting opinion, in which GORSUCH joined, and BARRETT also filed a dissenting opinion.

This is a rather goofball decision when you consider the previous issues with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the high court prior ruling that President Trump can remove the head of the agency.

Additionally, if Lisa Cook does not work for the President of the United States, meaning if she doesn’t work for the Executive Branch, then who exactly is she working for?  She doesn’t work for the legislative branch, and she doesn’t work for the judicial branch. Therefore, a de facto mysterious 4th branch of government is created.

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You might remember recent reports outlining how the economy of Canada has slipped into a recession, posting two consecutive quarters with a negative GDP outcome.  There are multiple reasons for this shrinkage, but the dominant factor is, well, quite frankly, Canadian politics and economic policy.

Meanwhile, in Mexico the opposite is happening.  Mexico’s economic activity grew 1.2% in April from the prior month, the national statistics agency said, compared with a revised increase of 0.6% in March and beating a forecast of a 0.9% increase in a Reuters poll of analysts. {source}

It is not coincidental to see the Mexican economy performing well, while the Canadian economy is contracting.  Despite their identical proximity to The United States, each nation is currently executing a fundamentally different set of economic policies.

The Canadian government has been exceptionally combative with the U.S.A, leading to friction, tariffs and economic back-and-forth measures between the two nations.

The Mexican government has expressly understood the nature of their dependency, admitted it, taken no action to diminish it, and purposefully set out to align itself with the interests of America.

Canada is combative. Mexico is collaborating.

It seems unlikely that the three nations can agree on major economic policies, as a trilateral partnership would need alignment in core areas like energy policy. Canada’s energy policy is fundamentally separate from those of the U.S. and Mexico, and this is an issue that can’t be resolved through a trade agreement alone.

A large part of Mexico’s economy relies on remittances from Mexican workers in the U.S. sending money back to their families. As long as the U.S. job market stays strong—and it’s only getting stronger in the industries where many Mexicans work—Mexico will continue to benefit from America’s economic growth.

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Multiple countries have proposed ‘digital service taxes’ which are taxes on the domestic use of American tech platforms like META, Twitter, Amazon etc.  EU countries are planning to tax U.S. based tech platforms for the revenues generated by operations within EU countries.

President Trump announces retaliatory action via reciprocity taxes, in essence leveraging the entirety of the U.S. consumer market, if the EU proceed with this new tax revenue scheme against U.S. companies.   Canada was on the cusp of a digital services tax last year when Trump made a similar announcement forcing Canada to abandon the plan.

[SOURCE]

WASHINGTON DC – […] Trump’s promise to raise tariffs threatens to complicate trade talks with the European Union. Trump’s threat comes one day after EU member states approved an agreement that would slash tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and some agricultural products. In return, the U.S. would cap most tariffs on the European Union at 15 percent.

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During a White House oval office meeting with President Trump’s faith council.  President Trump took a quick question about a current strike from the IRGC toward the Strait of Hormuz.  WATCH (prompted):

WASHINGTON DC – The U.S. conducted a strike against Iran on Friday in response to an attack on a commercial ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the most significant test yet of the deal to end hostilities that President Donald Trump signed last week.

U.S. Central Command said Friday that American aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites, along with coastal radar sites.

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At The Economic Club of New York’s gala marking America’s 250th anniversary, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveils a five-pillar framework for “economic statecraft” — tying trade, supply chains, and financial leadership directly to national security. WATCH:

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Even as House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republican leadership assembled for a news conference touting the recently passed Housing bill, President Trump cancelled the signing ceremony.

[SOURCE]

President Trump appears very serious about facing down both the Senate and the House on their intransigence to pass the Save America Act to secure national elections.  President Trump is now on a direct collision course with Senate Majority Leader John Thune.

Trump was scheduled to sign the 21st Century ROAD to Housing bill on Wednesday afternoon, which passed both chambers with wide bipartisan support. (Politico)

This is the second legislative priority being blocked by President Trump due to Legislative friction.  The FISA (702) reauthorization in the Senate is also stalled as Senator’s demand Trump withdraw Acting DNI Bill Pulte.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio gives an impromptu press availability and answers questions from members of media in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

The Rubio visit comes as the U.S. is working with Gulf Arab partners (GCC) to construct the second phase of an agreement with Iran.  The current terms cover a ‘ceasefire’ and the Gulf Cooperation Council play a major role in the regional decisions as partners to the United States.

“We know what [Iran] agreed to do. Now they’ll either do it or they won’t and if they do the process moves forward and if they don’t the president will have some decisions to make.”…

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Upon arrival in Reading, Pennsylvania, President Trump held an impromptu press availability.  There were numerous questions on the topic of Iran, the economy and current events. WATCH:

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I have a half-day of travel that takes me offline until later today; however, President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks on the economy today in the Lehigh Valley area of Pennsylvania.

President Donald Trump will deliver a speech during his visit to the Mack Trucks manufacturing plant in Lower Macungie Township.  The event is scheduled for 2:00pm ET with livestream links below.

UPDATE: VIDEO ADDED

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