The Trump curse is real.

With what she perceived as strong domestic support following her confrontation with President Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen decided to trigger an early election.  Frederiksen thought the timing was perfect; however, it backfired.

Mette Frederiksen’s political party suffered the biggest ruling party election defeat in 120+ years, and her coalition of left-wing parties now lost their majority.

As a result of the election, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has resigned.

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Barbara Boyd gives her perspective on the latest developments and President Trump policy intersects with the Iran conflict and the Mideast oil disruption.

According to the latest information from the region, some ships have begun navigating the Strait of Hormuz despite the conflict.  It is reported that Iran is charging a $2 million fee for safe passage, however those reports are not officially confirmed.

Mrs Boyd notes the Arab nations have historically -and recently- remained under the control of the British, and President Trump has fractured this financial control system.  While there is an obvious historic reference to that relationship, I’m not as convinced the connective tissue is as deep as ¹claimed in the modern era (last 20 years).   WATCH:

In the modern era, thanks to technological advancement and strategic policy (even before Trump), oil and gas development and use has increasingly become regional.  Oil dependencies and the trade partnerships are now associated more with refinement capacity than simply global commodities.  Not all oil is created equal.

In the “producers and users” chart below, you can see the origin of regional production and import relationships.  The oil supplies from the middle east flow mainly to China and Asia.  The oil from Russia is the current wildcard.

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This is one of those small stories that carries the potential for significant domestic economic gains.

As many are aware, the U.S. imports a lot of softwood lumber from Canada. Combined with the energy products the lumber sector represents the top two U.S. imports from Canada.  With Venezuela now potentially positioned to replace the former, USDA Rural Development now stimulates domestic lumber development potentially positioned to replace the latter.

Taken as a whole, these two approaches significantly weaken the Canadian leverage that could be deployed in a Free Trade Agreement negotiation.  Assuming, of course, the USMCA is dissolved in favor of two bilateral FTAs.

USDA Press Release – At the Advanced Bioeconomy Leadership Conference today, U.S. Department of Agriculture Administrator for the Rural Business and Cooperative Service J.R. Claeys announced the U.S. Department of Agriculture is guaranteeing $115.2 million across eight states through the Timber Production Expansion Guaranteed Loan Program (TPEP) to ensure sawmills and other wood processing facilities have the necessary funding to establish, reopen, expand, or improve their operations.

Today’s announcement includes recipients in the states of California, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Oklahoma, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

These investments represent a commitment by the Trump Administration to expand American timber production by 25%, reduce wildfire risk, and save American lives and communities by strengthening domestic wood processing capacity.

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Within Germany the Rhineland-Palatinate regional parliament election was held yesterday. The region is the heart of the German industrial sector and home to the massively important auto-manufacturing sector.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative party the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won the biggest portion of the election, defeating the Social Democratic Party (SPD) who lost ground in the western area bordering France. However, the biggest electoral gains were for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, with gains that more than doubled its previous vote share.

There is intense interest throughout Europe on the ideological shift in political sentiment mostly driven by economic concerns as well as rising nationalistic sentiment against the elitist minds in Brussels.  Essentially those being ‘ruled’ are increasingly fed-up by those doing the ‘ruling.’   The AfD party is akin to the pragmatic MAGA base more focused on economic nationalism than all the nonsense associated with multiculturalism, green energy programs and terrible immigration policy.

The ideological battle within Europe is ongoing, with some gains by nationalist parties over the collective mindset of the European elites.  However, the European Commission doesn’t just have a finger on the scales, they have full control over the mechanics of the elections themselves.   Yes, AfD more than doubled their share of votes to 20%, but CDU at 31% and the socialists at 26% is akin to mainstream corporate republicans and progressives respectively controlling 57% of the support base.

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The noise can seem overwhelming at times.  There are those who say the U.S-Israeli joint military operation against Iran is a catastrophic miscalculation.  There are those who say the operation is strategically succeeding.  Many interests even appear to be cheering for the military operation to fail; others want the operation to escalate.

It is difficult to find pragmatic facts about the events without shaped information to promote specific narratives.  However, accepting there is a psychological component to the information flow, it seems like the best option to listen to the experts who are conducting the operation.

Giving his first interview since Operation Epic Fury began, CENTCOM Commander Bradley Cooper outlines the current status of the conflict and the elements he notes are of most importance.  According to Adm. Cooper, Iran is “operating in a sign of desperation… In the last couple of weeks, they’ve attacked civilian targets very deliberately, more than 300 times.”

“The Strait of Hormuz is physically open to transit,” he said. “The reason ships are not transiting right now is because the Islamic Republic is shooting at them with drones and missiles.”  WATCH:

“I’d like everyone to note is I’ve watched this over the last week, this extraordinary contrast between the comfort and protection that you’re seeing with the senior generals in the Islamic Republic, at least those that are still alive, who are up in deep bunkers and facilities in and around Tehran. And contrast that with the soldiers who are down on the ground who are unprotected. The generals are protected. The soldiers are not protected.”

“They’re launching missiles and drones from populated areas and you need to stay inside for right now,” he said. “There will be a clear signal at some point, as the President has indicated, for you to be able to come out.”

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on NBC News to outline the purpose and intents of the lifting sanctions as it pertains to Russian and Iranian oil shipments currently in transit.  The video and transcript below:

[Transcript] – KRISTEN WELKER: And joining me now is treasury secretary Scott Bessent. Secretary Bessent, welcome back to Meet the Press.

SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Kristen, good morning.

KRISTEN WELKER: Good morning. Good to have you back. I want to start with the latest of what we’re hearing from President Trump. Let me read you what he posted overnight. He says, “If Iran doesn’t fully open, without threat, the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first.” Has the president changed his mind about winding down the war, as he said a day earlier, and instead plans to escalate?

SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: I think he said he could wind the war down at any time he wants. And, Kristen, this is the only language the Iranians understand.

KRISTEN WELKER: But this seems to be an escalation, a threat of escalation, and it seems to run counter to his statement that he, in fact, wants to wind down the war.

SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Again, Kristen, the president’s been very clear from the beginning that the goals are: destroy the Iranian air force and the navy, to completely demolish their missile capabilities, demolish their ability to replenish those capabilities, make sure the Iranians cannot have a nuclear weapon and stop their ability to project power internationally. And the president will take whatever steps it takes to achieve those goals.

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The South Pars/North Dome field is a natural-gas condensate field located in the Persian Gulf. It is by far the world’s largest natural gas field, with ownership of the field shared between Iran and Qatar. According to the International Energy Agency, the field holds an estimated 1,800 trillion cubic feet of in-site natural gas.

President Trump is not happy about Israel’s unilateral decision to strike at the Pars gas field; however, pay attention to what Trump diplomatically describes as the motive:

[TRUTH SOCIAL] – “Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen.

Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility.”

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The EU has balked at the request of President Trump to support military escorts for EU oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz destined for European Ports.  However, it is the position of German Chancellor Fredrich Merz which really highlights the arrogance of the issue.

Germany has deactivated its nuclear reactors and decided not to purchase Russian oil/gas. As a consequence, the German industrial economy is contracting; the German auto industry is collapsing; German manufacturing plants are closing – and mass layoffs have been announced.

Into this self-created dynamic, Germany has become dependent on (1) Oil and Gas from the middle east, and (2) LNG from the USA. Germany is a completely dependent nation on the issue of energy production. Yet, this is Germanys position:

[SOURCE]

Setting aside for a moment that “the middle east is not a matter for NATO,” while reminding ourselves Ukraine is also not a NATO member state – yet Germany is supporting the pro-war ‘coalition of the willing,’  President Trump previously pointed out that NATO would never come to the aid of the USA when the Greenland Arctic Security debate was going on.

The EU in general, and Germany specifically, is essentially proving President Trump’s point.  However, as a result of intentional migration, Germany has over five million Muslim residents now residing inside the country.  We should consider that this overlay is also part of their internal political consideration.

What Chancellor Merz said next is almost too European to be real, but it is:

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Responding to questions about whether Japan would send military ships to the middle east to participate in escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi noted the current constitution blocks Japan from conducting overseas military operations.

Exactly as we outlined when President Trump first made the request via Truth Social {SEE HERE} Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may want to support the request, but Japan’s post WWII constitution about military operations doesn’t permit it.

Japan’s military can be constitutionally defensive only.

While an argument might be made that escorting oil destined for eventual arrival in Japan may technically squeeze within a narrow interpretation of ‘defense’, considering the operation would take place far from Japan a highly conservative Sanae Takaichi is not going to try and thread that precarious needle.

TOKYO, March 16 (Reuters) – Japan has no plan to dispatch naval vessels to escort vessels in the Middle East, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump called on allies to protect tankers traversing through the Strait of Hormuz.

“We have not made any decisions whatsoever about dispatching escort ships. We are continuing to examine what Japan can do independently and what can be done within the legal framework,” Takaichi told parliament.

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Moments ago, President Donald Trump took questions from the assembled press pool during a lunch with the Trump-Kennedy Center board members.

The full video is below the fold. However, the shorter segment of media questions and answers is highlighted in this video. President Trump was asked about countries willing to support the military escort request through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump noted an announcement of supporting countries will be forthcoming.

President Trump also noted the biggest beneficiary of the oil from Iran is China, and he would expect those nations who are dependent on the stability of that oil flow to rise in support of the escorts. WATCH:

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The full event video is below.

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