In his most recent outline, Promethean Action PAC’s Mike Steger puts the U.S-Canada trade conflict into an accurate context where China is really the enterprise to gain or fail.  This is a very well presented segment worth watching.

CTH readers will note our long track of this dynamic.  In short, as NAFTA predictably evolved, and as the U.S. manufacturing base was deconstructed, suddenly things shifted.  Canada and Mexico became important as entry doors into the U.S. consumer market for the products outsourced by the destruction of the American manufacturing base.

Steger appropriately uses the auto-sector as an example because it is the easiest sector to quantify damage.  By playing the long game, China has thoroughly compromised the EU and U.K auto market. In 2025 China exported 1.2 million vehicles into Europe. Europe only exported 200,000 vehicles into China; a net trade deficit of 1 million vehicles in Beijing’s favor.

Chinese cars now represent over ten percent of all EU vehicles on the road, and this is only the beginning stage of the collapse of the EU industrial base that Germany and Brussels have only recently started to grasp.  The pace is irreversible at this point for Europe, and now China has turned their attention toward Canada.   This is why the U.S-Canada trade conflict matters!

Canada is the entryway to do in North America what China has done in Europe. WATCH:

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In the graph below, look at how fast things move once the foothold is established by policy.  This is stunning.

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Essentially this notice can be summarized as follows: If you really end the Marshall Plan, credit rating agencies will have to lower their credit rating for all of Europe due to increased financial risk.

Now, tell me again how Europe is not living on the back of America.

LONDON, July 13 (Reuters) – Progressive U.S. disengagement from European security ​affairs is negative for ‌Europe’s sovereign credit ratings, Moody’s said on Monday, due the ​increased defence costs ​the region’s governments will now ⁠face.

A summit of the ​North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)) ​in Turkey last week saw its 32 member countries agree to ​shift the balance ​of responsibility for Europe’s defence to ‌the ⁠alliance’s European members, and away from the United States.

“The (U.S.) disengagement is credit negative ​for ​European ⁠sovereigns,” a report by two of Moody’s ​top rating analysts ​said. ⁠It said the “credit effect” would depend on how the ⁠shift ​was managed ​in the coming years. (SOURCE)

When it comes to irony, Emmanuel Macron has, quite possibly, the world’s worst timing.

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At the same time as Dept of Labor Inspector General Anthony D’Esposito launches an investigation into H1B visa abuses by corporations who engaged in visa fraud, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh appoints advisors to the FED on labor policy that includes one of the most egregious violators of H1B fraud, XBox CEO Asha Sharma.

It is beyond frustrating to see our labor system for ‘qualified technical positions’ being abused by companies who are intentionally discriminating against American workers.

American born Asha Sharma was the former VP at Facebook during their $14M settlement with DOJ for discriminating against American workers.  Now as CEO of Microsoft XBox gaming, she has announced the termination of around 3,200 employees while Microsoft, company-wide, filed 2,879 Labor Condition Application for H-1B positions in fiscal year 2026.

There is a pattern at work within the high-tech industry where corporations factor in the price of lawsuits as a cost of doing business, a cost-effective way to continue discriminating against American workers.  Obviously, they deny this practice, yet the transparent visibility of the practice continuing tell a more honest story.

Into this mix, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announces an advisory network of business and economic leaders to help guide FED policy on a variety of subjects. [CITATION] Within the Productivity and Jobs taskforce, Asha Sharma surfaces as an advisor “to inform the Federal Reserve’s policy judgments.”

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WOW…

Things are coming together quickly now as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney begins unveiling details to support his illusion of meeting NATO obligations, with a smart money laundering assist from Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

To establish part of the background, remind yourself that former Canadian Minister Chrystia Freeland was appointed by Zelenskyy to lead a Ukraine redevelopment operation.  Today, speaking from Ankara, Turkey, Carney and Zelenskyy announced a $900 million fund for short, mid-term and long-term investment in Ukraine. WATCH:

But wait, it gets much better.  A few hours later Prime Minister Carney and Volodymr Zelenskyy announced a new Canada-based financial institution called the Defense, Security and Resilience Bank (DSRB). {citation}

CANADA – […] “Mark Carney, welcomed the support for the Canada-led DSRB by: Albania, Belgium, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, Romania, Türkiye, and Ukraine. These countries will be entrusted with defining the initial policies and directives of the Bank, shaping its operations and ensuring benefits flow to members’ economies.”

[…] Leveraging a strong credit rating, the Bank will provide long-term, low-cost financing for defence, security, and resilience initiatives across supply chains.” (more)

When you see the term “resilience initiatives” think climate change. Specifically, think carbon capture and carbon trading mechanisms.  The DSRB banking approach, in combination with Chrystia Freeland heading the Ukraine Economic Development operation, then takes us to the carbon capture deal with Alberta [carbon capture and storage (CCS) project] and then, wait for it,…. The TKMS submarine purchase contract with Germany.

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The Canadian dollar is starting to feel the effects of long-term uncertainty. It will get worse.

...”Since the start of June, the currency has weakened 2.9%, which would be its steepest monthly decline since October 2024, as Canadian bond yields fell further below U.S. yields.”… {source}

Now, this is where you really need to pay attention to details.  Remember, the U.K and EU have a vested interest in protecting Canada from economic collapse.

President Trump doesn’t want immediate collapse either -because Xi will move in fast- but Trump is not going to provide the same financial and economic lifelines that the other four-eyes will trigger.

Reuters is reporting that tomorrow the U.S. will formally declare a “non-extension” of the USMCA trade agreement {ARTICLE} and that triggers a 10-year period to decoupling.  It is very important to understand there is a difference between announcing a “non-extension” and announcing a “withdrawal“.  The Canadians are completely confused about what is about to happen.

In a non-extension announcement, the USA is saying they do not want to extend or renew the terms of the agreement beyond the current trade agreement terms.  Yes, this is a 10-year exit.  However, that’s not the part that matters.  Announcing a decision to exit the USMCA (CUSMA), a full withdrawal from the trilateral deal, triggers a six-month countdown to exit.

The deadline to announce the decision to extend is tomorrow, July 1st.  There is no deadline on the timeline to announce an exit or withdrawal from the USMCA. That announcement can happen at any time.

Put simply, announcing a non-renewal is a 10-year exit.  Announcing a withdrawal is a 6-month exit.  The announcement to withdraw can come at any time after the statement of non-renewal.

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At issue in Trump v Cook is not whether Lisa Cook can appeal her removal, but rather where her position rests while the appeal is underway.  Does she work for the govt? Or is she technically removed from govt, pending appeal?

The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Lisa Cook remaining in her position as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors whom President Donald Trump had attempted to fire. By a vote of 5-4 [PDF HERE] [the court says Cook can continue to remain in her job while her challenge to Trump’s removal moves forward.

Chief Justice John Roberts delivered the opinion of the Court, and SOTOMAYOR, KAGAN, KAVANAUGH and JACKSON concurred.

Justice Clarence Thomas filed a dissenting opinion. ALITO filed a dissenting opinion, in which GORSUCH joined, and BARRETT also filed a dissenting opinion.

This is a rather goofball decision when you consider the previous issues with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the high court prior ruling that President Trump can remove the head of the agency.

Additionally, if Lisa Cook does not work for the President of the United States, meaning if she doesn’t work for the Executive Branch, then who exactly is she working for?  She doesn’t work for the legislative branch, and she doesn’t work for the judicial branch. Therefore, a de facto mysterious 4th branch of government is created.

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In 2015, even before President Trump came down the golden escalator, CTH was outlining a ‘new era and dimension’ in American economics that could be possible if a presidential candidate focused on specific Main Street policy. {Go Deep}

Throughout the next four years we watched carefully how Donald Trump was organizing that Main Street revival {Go Deep} and what specifically was creating the economic growth {Go Deep}.

One of the points emphasized in 2016 about Trump’s unique MAGAnomic policy, was how both Trump and Bernie Sanders agreed on the problem.  The difference between them was the solution.

Think of it like economic football.

Both Trump and Sanders identify the rigged game.  Bernie Sanders wanted to change the referees so that government controls the game. Donald Trump’s approach was different.  Trump wanted to change the rules of the game, not step in and try to play referee to a rigged game where the rules were flawed.

One of the examples of economic “rule changing” is trade tariffs.  You don’t need govt to regulate the corporations directly (ie. raise corporate income taxes). Instead, you can change trade policy to make the better corporate decision a return of production back to the USA (a fundamental rules change).

Both approaches involve a different govt policy, but Trump’s approach changes behavior.  That’s MAGAnomics.

One of the reasons Trump’s approaches are much more effective, is that his rule changes extend beyond the American corporate game.  Trump’s approach changes the behavior of foreign governments and foreign corporations, a win/win/win.

An example is the Japanese government investing in America to offset reciprocity tariffs; while Toyota, a corporation, invests in specific auto manufacturing expansion to avoid baseline tariffs.

You don’t get that kind of result through Bernie’s approach changing the American referee in an all-American game and raising corporate income taxes. And don’t forget, the corporation can just move offshore and avoid income taxes entirely.  Apple used to have their company incorporated in Ireland.  Trump’s rule changes brought them back.

The Promethean Action PAC is now highlighting the fundamentals of Trump’s MAGAnomics and how the policy is distinctly different from all U.S. economic policy before it.

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Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a major, coordinated federal and state crackdown on massive fraud schemes across Ohio. AAG Blanche detailed a 32-count indictment involving state employees, a scheme to defraud Medicare, Medicaid, the COVID-19 relief program PPP, and emphasized the administration’s relentless pursuit of law and order to protect American taxpayers.

Acting AG Blanche outlined a partnership with officials in the state of Ohio that has now identified thousands of individuals and groups that are under investigation and/or facing indictment as a result of the findings so far. [DOJ Press Release Here] Press Conference Below:

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DOJ – The Justice Department today announced unprecedented federal and state cooperation in Ohio in the fight against fraud, including partnerships and a data sharing agreement to enhance the detection and prosecution of fraud; federal and state charges against 9 defendants for their alleged participation in over $42 million in fraud; orders of detention this week for three defendants, with two additional defendants pending extradition in connection with an additional $15 million in fraud; and the creation of the FBI’s Most Wanted Fraudsters list.  The charges announced today involve numerous types of fraud, including health care fraud, government program fraud, and consumer fraud schemes.  

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The technical definition of a “recession” is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The 4th quarter of 2025 and 1st quarter of 2026 have identified exactly that problem, negative GDP growth in Canada. [-1% and -0.1% respectively] The pretending is fierce, and again CTH warns everyone to be careful about exposure to the Canadian sector in their investment holdings.

As customary, whenever the economic policy of a political leftist delivers a bad outcome, the media contort themselves in order to avoid defining the situation accurately.  Instead, the financial media project -without merit- that the current situation is more positive.  Unfortunately, the data doesn’t provide much room to arbitrarily change the definitions.

Keep in mind this announcement today comes on the heels of the Bank of Canada warning that a “cascading series of events could cause a sharp loss of investor confidence and lead to a spike in demand for liquidity or rapid asset sales.”  This is a particularly pertinent phrase given one of the common reasons being attributed to the negative GDP, increased import values – specifically Canadians purchasing gold.

Several financial outlets have noted the increase in the value of Canadian imports, a negative in the GDP calculation, is being driven by Canadians (institutions and individuals) purchasing gold as a hedge.  The Canadians are buying gold as a hedge against both inflation and currency devaluation.

This activity puts additional context onto the statements from the Bank of Canada, who would likely have advanced notice of this issue.  Hence, the Bank of Canada also saying, “In normal times, hedge fund activity helps keep markets running smoothly. But if conditions become strained, this activity could amplify stress and disrupt core funding markets.”  The Wall Street Journal:

WSJ – OTTAWA — Canada’s economy unexpectedly shrank for a second consecutive quarter as activity stalled at the start of the year, raising the likelihood the country dipped into a recession.

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced across Canada, edged down 0.1% in seasonally adjusted annualized terms in the January-to-March period, Statistics Canada said Friday.

The economy also contracted a larger-than-previously-estimated 1% in the final quarter of last year. Back-to-back quarterly declines typically define a technical recession.

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…”A cascading series of events could cause a sharp loss of investor confidence and lead to a spike in demand for liquidity or rapid asset sales”…

That’s a diplomatic way for the Bank of Canada to say the current financial situation in Canada is tenuously at risk, if the economic relationship with the United States severs as a result USMCA points of conflict becoming irreconcilable.  An interesting statement against the backdrop of Prime Minister Mark Carney having just visited New York making a pitch to American investors {citation}.

The Bank of Canada released their 2026 Financial Stability Report {see pdf here}, and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle delivered remarks today about the analysis.  I’ve prompted the video below to the point of interest, as well as the transcript for the portion being highlighted [7:12 to 9:15].  WATCH:

[Transcript]  – […] “However, vulnerabilities have increased in some parts of the system. Stock and corporate debt valuations have risen and are high relative to historical norms. This makes markets more vulnerable to a sharp correction.

The issuance of global sovereign debt is also rising, and hedge funds are playing a bigger role in buying that debt, often using borrowed money. In normal times, hedge fund activity helps keep markets running smoothly. But if conditions become strained, this activity could amplify stress and disrupt core funding markets.

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