The Canadian dollar is starting to feel the effects of long-term uncertainty. It will get worse.

...”Since the start of June, the currency has weakened 2.9%, which would be its steepest monthly decline since October 2024, as Canadian bond yields fell further below U.S. yields.”… {source}

Now, this is where you really need to pay attention to details.  Remember, the U.K and EU have a vested interest in protecting Canada from economic collapse.

President Trump doesn’t want immediate collapse either -because Xi will move in fast- but Trump is not going to provide the same financial and economic lifelines that the other four-eyes will trigger.

Reuters is reporting that tomorrow the U.S. will formally declare a “non-extension” of the USMCA trade agreement {ARTICLE} and that triggers a 10-year period to decoupling.  It is very important to understand there is a difference between announcing a “non-extension” and announcing a “withdrawal“.  The Canadians are completely confused about what is about to happen.

In a non-extension announcement, the USA is saying they do not want to extend or renew the terms of the agreement beyond the current trade agreement terms.  Yes, this is a 10-year exit.  However, that’s not the part that matters.  Announcing a decision to exit the USMCA (CUSMA), a full withdrawal from the trilateral deal, triggers a six-month countdown to exit.

The deadline to announce the decision to extend is tomorrow, July 1st.  There is no deadline on the timeline to announce an exit or withdrawal from the USMCA. That announcement can happen at any time.

Put simply, announcing a non-renewal is a 10-year exit.  Announcing a withdrawal is a 6-month exit.  The announcement to withdraw can come at any time after the statement of non-renewal.

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At issue in Trump v Cook is not whether Lisa Cook can appeal her removal, but rather where her position rests while the appeal is underway.  Does she work for the govt? Or is she technically removed from govt, pending appeal?

The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Lisa Cook remaining in her position as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors whom President Donald Trump had attempted to fire. By a vote of 5-4 [PDF HERE] [the court says Cook can continue to remain in her job while her challenge to Trump’s removal moves forward.

Chief Justice John Roberts delivered the opinion of the Court, and SOTOMAYOR, KAGAN, KAVANAUGH and JACKSON concurred.

Justice Clarence Thomas filed a dissenting opinion. ALITO filed a dissenting opinion, in which GORSUCH joined, and BARRETT also filed a dissenting opinion.

This is a rather goofball decision when you consider the previous issues with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the high court prior ruling that President Trump can remove the head of the agency.

Additionally, if Lisa Cook does not work for the President of the United States, meaning if she doesn’t work for the Executive Branch, then who exactly is she working for?  She doesn’t work for the legislative branch, and she doesn’t work for the judicial branch. Therefore, a de facto mysterious 4th branch of government is created.

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In 2015, even before President Trump came down the golden escalator, CTH was outlining a ‘new era and dimension’ in American economics that could be possible if a presidential candidate focused on specific Main Street policy. {Go Deep}

Throughout the next four years we watched carefully how Donald Trump was organizing that Main Street revival {Go Deep} and what specifically was creating the economic growth {Go Deep}.

One of the points emphasized in 2016 about Trump’s unique MAGAnomic policy, was how both Trump and Bernie Sanders agreed on the problem.  The difference between them was the solution.

Think of it like economic football.

Both Trump and Sanders identify the rigged game.  Bernie Sanders wanted to change the referees so that government controls the game. Donald Trump’s approach was different.  Trump wanted to change the rules of the game, not step in and try to play referee to a rigged game where the rules were flawed.

One of the examples of economic “rule changing” is trade tariffs.  You don’t need govt to regulate the corporations directly (ie. raise corporate income taxes). Instead, you can change trade policy to make the better corporate decision a return of production back to the USA (a fundamental rules change).

Both approaches involve a different govt policy, but Trump’s approach changes behavior.  That’s MAGAnomics.

One of the reasons Trump’s approaches are much more effective, is that his rule changes extend beyond the American corporate game.  Trump’s approach changes the behavior of foreign governments and foreign corporations, a win/win/win.

An example is the Japanese government investing in America to offset reciprocity tariffs; while Toyota, a corporation, invests in specific auto manufacturing expansion to avoid baseline tariffs.

You don’t get that kind of result through Bernie’s approach changing the American referee in an all-American game and raising corporate income taxes. And don’t forget, the corporation can just move offshore and avoid income taxes entirely.  Apple used to have their company incorporated in Ireland.  Trump’s rule changes brought them back.

The Promethean Action PAC is now highlighting the fundamentals of Trump’s MAGAnomics and how the policy is distinctly different from all U.S. economic policy before it.

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Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a major, coordinated federal and state crackdown on massive fraud schemes across Ohio. AAG Blanche detailed a 32-count indictment involving state employees, a scheme to defraud Medicare, Medicaid, the COVID-19 relief program PPP, and emphasized the administration’s relentless pursuit of law and order to protect American taxpayers.

Acting AG Blanche outlined a partnership with officials in the state of Ohio that has now identified thousands of individuals and groups that are under investigation and/or facing indictment as a result of the findings so far. [DOJ Press Release Here] Press Conference Below:

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DOJ – The Justice Department today announced unprecedented federal and state cooperation in Ohio in the fight against fraud, including partnerships and a data sharing agreement to enhance the detection and prosecution of fraud; federal and state charges against 9 defendants for their alleged participation in over $42 million in fraud; orders of detention this week for three defendants, with two additional defendants pending extradition in connection with an additional $15 million in fraud; and the creation of the FBI’s Most Wanted Fraudsters list.  The charges announced today involve numerous types of fraud, including health care fraud, government program fraud, and consumer fraud schemes.  

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The technical definition of a “recession” is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The 4th quarter of 2025 and 1st quarter of 2026 have identified exactly that problem, negative GDP growth in Canada. [-1% and -0.1% respectively] The pretending is fierce, and again CTH warns everyone to be careful about exposure to the Canadian sector in their investment holdings.

As customary, whenever the economic policy of a political leftist delivers a bad outcome, the media contort themselves in order to avoid defining the situation accurately.  Instead, the financial media project -without merit- that the current situation is more positive.  Unfortunately, the data doesn’t provide much room to arbitrarily change the definitions.

Keep in mind this announcement today comes on the heels of the Bank of Canada warning that a “cascading series of events could cause a sharp loss of investor confidence and lead to a spike in demand for liquidity or rapid asset sales.”  This is a particularly pertinent phrase given one of the common reasons being attributed to the negative GDP, increased import values – specifically Canadians purchasing gold.

Several financial outlets have noted the increase in the value of Canadian imports, a negative in the GDP calculation, is being driven by Canadians (institutions and individuals) purchasing gold as a hedge.  The Canadians are buying gold as a hedge against both inflation and currency devaluation.

This activity puts additional context onto the statements from the Bank of Canada, who would likely have advanced notice of this issue.  Hence, the Bank of Canada also saying, “In normal times, hedge fund activity helps keep markets running smoothly. But if conditions become strained, this activity could amplify stress and disrupt core funding markets.”  The Wall Street Journal:

WSJ – OTTAWA — Canada’s economy unexpectedly shrank for a second consecutive quarter as activity stalled at the start of the year, raising the likelihood the country dipped into a recession.

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced across Canada, edged down 0.1% in seasonally adjusted annualized terms in the January-to-March period, Statistics Canada said Friday.

The economy also contracted a larger-than-previously-estimated 1% in the final quarter of last year. Back-to-back quarterly declines typically define a technical recession.

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…”A cascading series of events could cause a sharp loss of investor confidence and lead to a spike in demand for liquidity or rapid asset sales”…

That’s a diplomatic way for the Bank of Canada to say the current financial situation in Canada is tenuously at risk, if the economic relationship with the United States severs as a result USMCA points of conflict becoming irreconcilable.  An interesting statement against the backdrop of Prime Minister Mark Carney having just visited New York making a pitch to American investors {citation}.

The Bank of Canada released their 2026 Financial Stability Report {see pdf here}, and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle delivered remarks today about the analysis.  I’ve prompted the video below to the point of interest, as well as the transcript for the portion being highlighted [7:12 to 9:15].  WATCH:

[Transcript]  – […] “However, vulnerabilities have increased in some parts of the system. Stock and corporate debt valuations have risen and are high relative to historical norms. This makes markets more vulnerable to a sharp correction.

The issuance of global sovereign debt is also rising, and hedge funds are playing a bigger role in buying that debt, often using borrowed money. In normal times, hedge fund activity helps keep markets running smoothly. But if conditions become strained, this activity could amplify stress and disrupt core funding markets.

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This should be interesting.  As White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt remains on maternity leave, the Trump White House has done something remarkable and very unique.  Cabinet members are taking turns delivering the White House press briefing.

Today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent steps up to the podium and will be delivering the White House briefing at 2:00pm ET.  Secretary Bessent has been one of the standout leaders throughout the first seventeen months. Livestream links below:

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An interesting arrest that might warrant some background material prior to today’s events.  Keep in mind there are several indicted individuals from Venezuela and Mexico now said to be cooperating with the DOJ and federal law enforcement.

In addition to former Venezuela dictator Nicolas Maduro in the Southern District of New York, we should also note three Mexican officials connected to the Sinaloa cartel previously turned themselves in to U.S. federal officials and are said to be cooperating.

Earlier this month, Gerardo Mérida, a retired Mexican army general who served as public-security secretary in northwestern Sinaloa state surrendered in Tucson, Arizona. Enrique Inzunza Cazárez, who is also facing drug trafficking and weapon charges, was taken into custody in San Diego by the DEA. Sinaloa businessman Enrique Diaz Vega – another name from the SDNY indictment – also turned himself into U.S. authorities in Arizona.

As you read this story, also keep in mind the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency, falls under the authority of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, and that agency oversees a background check program, known as “continuous vetting.”

According to NBC News a 20-year veteran manger within the CIA named David Rush has been arrested on suspicion of embezzlement and theft.  The CIA operative was reported to have been referred to the FBI by CIA Director John Ratcliffe.

(VIA NBC) WASHINGTON — A former CIA senior officer with top secret-level clearance has been accused of secretly stashing millions of dollars in gold bars in his home that he said he needed for “work-related expenses,” according to court documents and two people familiar with his employment history.

David Rush, who held a management position, was charged with criminal theft of public money in a complaint filed last week in the Eastern District of Virginia. His lawyer didn’t respond to a request for comment.  He was also accused of lying to his employers about his background for nearly two decades.

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The meeting is all business as the two apex economic leaders are scheduled to meet on a summit that is majority framed around finance, trade, AI and economics.  At its core, this summit between President Trump and Chairman Xi is about economic power.

Within the power dynamic of these types of high-stakes meetings, positioning plays a critical role. Chairman Xi Jinping did not attend the arrival ceremony and the meeting between Trump and Xi will not take place until Thursday. Chinese Vice President Han Zheng greeted Trump at the Beijing airport. US Ambassador to China David Purdue and China’s Ambassador to the US Xie Feng were also there to welcome him.

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(Daily Mail) – […] The President’s Air Force One posse also included NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, who was scooped up on a refueling stop in Alaska, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Fox News host Sean Hannity and Rush Hour director Brett Ratner.

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There was much fake news about the tech and finance leaders traveling with President Trump to China.  Moments ago, President Trump corrects the record:

TRUTH SOCIAL – “CNBC incorrectly reported that the Great Jensen Huang, of Nvidia, was not invited to the incredible gathering of the World’s Greatest Businessmen/women proudly going to China. In actuality, Jensen is currently on Air Force One and, unless I ask him to leave, which is highly unlikely, CNBC’s reporting is incorrect or, as they say in politics, FAKE NEWS!

It is an Honor to have Jensen, Elon, Tim Apple, Larry Fink, Stephen Schwarzmann, Kelly Ortberg (Boeing), Brian Sikes (Cargill), Jane Fraser (Citi), Larry Culp (GE Aerospace), David Solomon (Goldman Sachs), Sanjay Mehrotra (Micron), Cristiano Amon (Qualcomm), and many others journeying to the Great Country of China where I will be asking President Xi, a Leader of extraordinary distinction, to “open up” China so that these brilliant people can work their magic, and help bring the People’s Republic to an even higher level! In fact, I promise, that when we are together, which will be in a matter of hours, I will make that my very first request. I have never seen or heard of any idea that would be more beneficial to our incredible Countries!”

~ President DONALD J. TRUMP

“Tim Apple” always cracks me up. lol

As previously noted and discussed by USTR Jamieson Greer, since the original trip to Beijing was announced several months ago, it was very easy to identify this visit was not a customary ‘state visit’ in the formal sense of the term.  Instead, this trip was always planned as a trade, finance and economic business trip specifically to engage Chairman Xi with a financial and investment focus.

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