Comrades, Ontario Premier Doug Ford held a press conference this afternoon to announce he has declared a ‘state of emergency‘ and intends to issue orders against dissident truckers authorizing the police to place them under arrest, initiate fines up to $100k each individual, and revoke the personal and commercial licenses of anyone who doesn’t comply.  The rebellion must be quashed, before the citizens start to think they have power.

As a typical DeceptiCon, Premier Ford begins his justification with the feels, and then gets to down to the business of calling the Freedom Protest in Ottawa an illegal occupation.  Ford emphasized that workers are not permitted to challenge government. In essence, all your paychecks are belong to us – and you have no right to disrupt economic activity controlled by government.

Referencing the growing cross border blockades and looking/sounding like a corrupt union boss from the 1950’s, Comrade Premier Ford reminded the Canadian citizens that only government is permitted to destroy livelihoods, collapse businesses and create economic pain.  The people in/around Ontario are not allowed to disrupt or influence the provincial economic activity; picking winners and losers is exclusively the role of government.  WATCH:

CANADA – […] “While these emergency orders will be temporary, we have every intention to bring new legislation forward that will make these measures permanent in law. We are taking the steps necessary to support our police as they do what it takes to restore law and order,” Ford said at a press conference at Queen’s Park.

The state of emergency will make it illegal and punishable to block and stop the movement of goods, people and services along critical infrastructure.

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The Freedom Convoy trucker protest has now expanded and is starting to hit more U.S-Canada border crossings, while the main trucker convoy remains in downtown Ottawa. The Coutts border crossing, between Alberta and Montana, is shut down as truckers have closed every lane.

However, after 12 days of pressure – and a typical Alinsky response from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – things are beginning to escalate. Now, in Windsor, Ontario, the Ambassador Bridge to Detroit – the busiest land crossing on the U.S-Canada border, has been effectively blocked.

The government of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is starting to panic.  “They’re essentially putting their foot on the throat of all Canadians,” Bill Blair, Canada’s minister of emergency preparedness, said Wednesday. “It can’t be allowed to persist.”  Yet, the Trudeau government is quickly discovering their biggest Achillies’ heal in this issue.  There is no logistical way to stop truckers from blocking the roads and bridges.

The logistics of trying to forcibly remove the big rigs with tow trucks is a nightmare.  Additionally, the tow truck companies are not willing to support the government in a fight against their own profession.  Slowly, the uber elite who think they are the rulers are starting to realize just how little power they have when the “workers of the world” really do “unite”.   Trudeau really is starting to panic:

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Gasoline prices have risen, on average, 40% in the past 11 months.  This leads to higher consumer costs across the board.  Oil, currently $90/barrel, is going to go even higher as a merge of Biden economic, regulatory, energy and foreign policies are going to make things worse.

As the Obama-Biden administration previously said when they achieved their last historic increase in gas prices, “U.S. energy prices will necessarily skyrocket“, in order to achieve their ideological climate change objectives.

(VIA CNBC) Gas prices rose to the highest level in more than seven years Friday, on the heels of the U.S. oil benchmark topping $90 per barrel for the first time since 2014. 

The national average for a gallon of gas stood at $3.423 on Friday, according to AAA, slightly surpassing the prior high-water mark of $3.422 from Nov. 8.  Friday’s price means consumers are now paying the most at the pump since Sept. 10, 2014, AAA data shows.

The national average stood at $2.44 a year ago.  The rapid rise in prices is contributing to inflationary fears across the economy and is creating a headache for the Biden administration. (read more)

Yes, a president can and does control the price of gasoline.  What can a U.S. President and administration specifically do?  We have abundant U.S. energy resources.  Quite literally the strongest in the entire world.

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The latest BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLT) report [DATA HERE] reflects a headline of 4.3 million U.S. workers quitting in December.  However, that number is 161,000 fewer quits than November. The job openings are starting to fill up.

While there is evidence the mandatory vaccine requirements are still working through the job market, we are still about another month away before the fog clears from the private sector employment data.

This Friday we will see the unemployment data from December, but in the interim this JOLT’s report is tracking with CTH expectations.

The primary driver of the quits rate has been inflation.  Workers seeking higher wages in an effort to deal with inflation can get faster paycheck results by switching jobs rather than asking current employers for more money.

We have been watching this trend for several months.  However, the rate of job-jumping is slowing down as the available jobs to jump into are fewer, and the vaccine mandate impact is settling down.

Despite the number of job openings, blue collar workers are starting to see job vacancies decreasing.  The service industries around accommodation, food services and basic dirty fingernail positions still have many vacancies; this is the epicenter of where the job jumping takes place. Employment in durable goods manufacturing is at that phase where things are about to get sketchy for tradespeople and union workers.

The white collar jobs are static and/or slightly downsizing.  The total number of hires was 6.3 million for December, a drop of 333,000 from prior month.  The number of people hired in professional and business services dropped by 159,000.

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We have been tracking the issue of U.S. port congestion, supply chain crises and the White House supply chain initiatives since they first surfaced last fall.  We finally have full data to review, and what we see is very disturbing.  Not only was the White House supply chain effort a fraud, but they also manipulated the port system to give a false impression of the U.S. economy.

Let’s start with the latest issue.

For several weeks, we have been trying to figure out why the Port of Los Angeles (POLA), our nation’s busiest and most valuable port, had delayed their reporting for December.

Normally they update their container statistics and port efficiency/productivity results between the 10th and 15th of the month.  However, this month the data was delayed by several weeks.

When we finally grew frustrated and asked the POLA about this ridiculous delay, they responded January 25th, saying: “Good morning. Data from one vessel has delayed final numbers. We plan on releasing numbers today or tomorrow.”

The POLA justification and timing seemed odd, and their explanation seemed fishy.  One container ship manages to delay the entire POLA result?  However, this morning after checking and seeing still no result we realized what was going on.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the U.S. 4th Quarter GDP result (link).  The value of imported goods is a deduction to the U.S. GDP.  If the biggest port in the U.S. holds back their import cargo data, the resulting information cannot be deducted from the GDP.  Missing data gives an artificial outlook for the GDP.  Put another way, the 4th quarter GDP is inflated by the missing deduction.

From the position of the Biden administration, there is a perverse economic motive to keep all those import cargo ships from arriving.

Would the Port of Los Angeles intentionally hold back data in order to help the White House give a false and more optimistic impression of the U.S. economy?  At first blush it might seem a stretch, but then – as if on cue – a few hours after the BEA made the public release, suddenly the Port of Los Angeles released their December data.  In politics timing is never coincidental.

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A Gallup news survey [DATA HERE] indicates that eight out of ten Americans expect higher prices and continued rising inflation, as the working class can see the through the smoke and mirrors of the Biden economy.

Overall, there are multiple datapoints that show the economic quagmire that is taking place right now.  Gasoline continues to rise in price, as oil costs continue to skyrocket as an outcome of Biden energy policy.  Food store prices have only just begun to show the higher prices that are built into the replenishment process.

Newly arriving goods overall are at a much higher price that previous inventory.  The 30, 60 and 90-day terms of purchase order fulfillment are now reflecting the cumulative cost increases at every stage in the supply chain.  Inbound prices to retail are still climbing. This is an economic quagmire created by inflation that cannot be avoided.

Fuel, food, home energy and home prices overall are rising.  As a result, durable good spending has contracted.  CTH has pointed out this dynamic for almost five months; however, the actual data is difficult to extract, because the scale of government spending in 2021 has clouded all of the economic indicators.

The official government inflation statistics at 7 to 9% do not accurately reflect the real inflation being felt by consumers, which is in the 25 to 40 percent range for highly consumable products.  If you look around your local community, it is not difficult to see that working class Americans have modified all of their spending priorities to deal with the food, energy and housing inflation that cannot be avoided.

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The support for the Canadian trucker protest is already getting results.   As we shared previously, ‘the absence of food will change things‘, and the reason is simple, it focuses priorities.

In the bigger picture, a grassroots protest from Main Street (truckers) forces the multinationals to a position of vulnerability.  The multinationals control the politicians, so any pressure applied directly to the multinationals ends up being transmitted to their beneficiaries, the government officials.

In the modern era, the professional left has used this dynamic to pressure corporations via organized activism and leftist demands.  However, the middle class actually has more power in this type of engagement, they just don’t use it.

The Canadian trucker protest is an example of the working class using the power of their influence.  The results are immediately surfacing.

The multinational business advocacy groups in Canada are now telling the Canadian government officials to back down from their vaccination mandate against the truckers.

CANADA – Business leaders are urging Ottawa to ease vaccine mandates for cross-border truckers to relieve the congested supply chain with the United States.  

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defended Monday the mandate as a necessary step to keep supply chains open, arguing that COVID-19 itself is the biggest risk to Canada’s economy.  But in separate statements the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and the Canadian Manufacturing Coalition both urged him to back down.

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The preparation window has closed.

Given the destabilized and tenuous nature of the current supply chain, many people wondered if the Biden administration would actually be stupid enough to follow through with a truck driver vaccination mandate.  The answer is yes.  Please conduct yourselves accordingly.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) updated their guidance yesterday [LINK HERE] and put a hard date of tomorrow, January 22nd, for the trucker vaccine mandate at all border crossings and ferry terminals.   Canada put the vaccine mandate into effect last week, January 15th.

[Dept. of Homeland Security] – [..]  “Starting on January 22, 2022, the Department of Homeland Security will require that non-U.S. individuals entering the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals along our Northern and Southern borders be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and be prepared to show related proof of vaccination,” said Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas. “These updated travel requirements reflect the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to protecting public health while safely facilitating the cross-border trade and travel that is critical to our economy.”

These changes – which were first announced in October 2021 and made in consultation with the White House and several federal agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) – will align public health measures that govern land travel with those that govern incoming international air travel.

Non-U.S. individuals traveling to the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals, whether for essential or non-essential reasons, must:

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Perhaps the mainstream media is starting to wake up.  NBC is now reporting that cross-border auto parts and food shipments may start being disrupted as the trucker vaccine mandate begins.  Approximately 60 to 75% of all U.S. truckers are not vaccinated.  The cross-border vaccine mandate for American truckers begins January 22nd as part of the Dept of Homeland Security protocol.

In October DHS announced:

…”beginning in early January 2022, DHS will require that all inbound foreign national travelers crossing U.S. land or ferry POEs – whether for essential or non-essential reasons – be fully vaccinated for COVID-19 and provide related proof of vaccination. This approach will provide ample time for essential travelers such as truckers, students, and healthcare workers to get vaccinated.” (link)

The Canadian trucker vaccine mandate began January 15th, the U.S. mandate begins this weekend, January 22nd.  Given the scale of out of season fresh fruit and vegetable shipments from South and Central America, as well as Mexico, we can anticipate serious issues in the food supply chain.  The NBC article highlights trade with Canada, but that’s miniscule when compared to the trade we get from Mexico.

(Via NBC) – […] The U.S. mandate, announced in October, requires all essential foreign travelers, including truck drivers, who cross U.S. land borders to be fully vaccinated. Essential nonresident travelers had been able to enter the U.S. during the pandemic regardless of their vaccination status, in part so as not to disrupt trade and to give them more time to get vaccinated.

The forthcoming mandate follows one that went into effect in Canada last week that prohibits unvaccinated truckers from crossing into Canada from the U.S.

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There are two merging inflection points set to hit the public in a few days.

The first, is a much faster collapse in credibility for those who are pushing the vaccine benefit narrative.  The second, the more widespread appearance of shortages for food and basic essentials.  These two broad narratives are going to merge. CTH will outline the issues as they predictably surface.  This outline focuses on the latter, the supply chain angle.

♦ The cross-border vaccination mandate protests by truckers are continuing in Canada and at areas near the U.S-Canada border.  The vaccine mandate for the Canadian side began on January 15th. The mandate for the U.S. truckers begins January 22nd.  Both groups are currently slow-rolling the protest in/around the border crossings.

A coordinated Trucker Protest on the Canadian side is scheduled for January 23rd {LINK}, coincidentally the same time as a protest rally in Washington DC by members of the healthcare industry.  It is not coincidental that retail executives in the grocery industry are starting to prepare people in Canada for major grocery shortages {LINK}.

CANADA – “[…] “Independent grocers are in a myriad of communities in this country where there is no other grocery store,” Sands said. “If those stores close, you’ve got a food security issue.”

Meanwhile, stores are also experiencing a shortage of goods stemming from supply chain issues, including a shortage of truckers, packaging and processing delays and the Canadian winter.

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