Hopefully everyone has done their preparatory diligence and are well situated to assist their family, because prices on fast turn consumable goods (groceries) are now less than 30 days from entering exponential increase phase.  CTH has been counting down the days to impact as the contract terms of 30, 60 and 90 days have begun expiring.

The Wall Street Journal has seen the first pricing notification memo from Kraft-Heinz food group to the buying offices of major U.S. retailers.  Here’s how the WSJ presents it: “Kraft Heinz Co. told retailer customers that it would raise prices across many of its products including Jell-O pudding and Grey Poupon mustard, with some items going up as much as 20%, according to a memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal.”  VIDEO:

Keep in mind a few points:

(1) The outlined price increases noted are against current price terms and contracts.  Meaning, these are price increases from right now to the next fulfillment.  These are not inflation price increases which are compared to a year ago.  These are 5% to 20% increases from the current price right now.

(2) The price increases are not the final price increase.  This is the price of a contract today from the field to the distribution center.  The retailer also has additional price increases (transportation, energy, labor, etc) which they need to add to the wholesale price before you see the final price at retail (grocery store).

The final field to fork price is not yet known but will be higher than noted above.  We are only seeing the notifications from field, through processing and into warehousing and distribution.

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A series of Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) filings into the Dutch government has resulted in rather revealing letters showing the motive of the World Economic Forum, an assembly of multinational banks and corporations, summoning government leaders.

[SOURCE]

Notice how they are using the words “shaping policies for the post-COVID-19 era“?

The World Economic Forum, a collection of corporations, “shaping” government “policies.”

Why does this matter?  Well, fascism was traditionally defined as an authoritarian government working hand-in-glove with corporations to achieve objectives. A centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, using severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition.

That system of government didn’t work in the long-term, because the underlying principles of free people reject government authoritarianism.  Fascist governments collapsed, and the corporate beneficiaries were nulled and scorned for participating.  Then, along came a new approach to achieve the same objective.

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The Commerce Department November retail sales data was release today [DATA HERE] – [DETAIL pdf HERE].  The top line issue is a shocking drop in retail sales for November in key categories that align with previous discussion of inflation spending priorities for all U.S. consumers.

Before getting to the data, one point is critical to remember.  The commerce department sales figures are based on dollars spent. This point is important, because the items being purchased have inflation within them.  When prices are higher due to inflation, sales figures should be higher due to higher prices.  Ex. If there is an 8% increase in retail price, but only a 4% increase in retail sales, that means less stuff is being sold.  [Less units sold at a higher price gives the illusion of an increase in sales.]

Despite the start of the traditional holiday sales and shopping period, the total sales growth in November was 0.3% over October [Column A].  Factoring in inflation during the same month to month comparison at 0.9%, you can tell that overall in November there was a drop in units sold across the total of retail sales outlets.

A drop in sales at a time when holiday shopping should be taking place is concerning.  However, the sales reality aligns with the employment data last week showing a drop of 20,000 workers in the retail sector for November.  Put them together, and the picture shows retailers did not need employees, because consumers are not spending.

If we look deeper into the November sales figures, we can see that a contraction in discretionary spending is the primary issue. Electronics (-4.6%), Department Stores (-5.4%) and even online sales at ZERO.  We can also see a direct correlation in comparative inflation impact within the sales data for November 2021 when compared to November 2020 [Column B].

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We said it was happening {Go Deep}, and it is.  Last month CTH put the preparation window at 60 days +/- depending on region.  That window is now around 30 days before the next spike in inflation shows up from cumulative costs snowballing throughout the supply chain. The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final.

The final product inflation rate in July (reported in August) was alarming at 7.8%. However, we warned it would get worse. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) then released stunning price data for October [DATA Here], showing an even more dramatic 8.6% price increase in final demand. More intense warnings shared.

Today, we get the November BLS Result [DATA Here], and unfortunately the results are showing what was expected.  The cumulative costs of massive increases in energy prices are building into the supply at an astonishing rate.  The November data shows a rate of wholesale final goods inflation at 9.6%, the largest single month comparative rate increase in history.

The bureau even went back and revised/increased the August price index from 7.8 to 8.4 percent, and revised/increased the October figure from 8.6 to 8.8 percent.  The average monthly price increase is almost a full percent… every month.  It looks like the BLS backward revisions are an attempt to smooth down the rate of increase.

(BLS) – “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.” (more)

I modified Table A (final demand product pricing), taking out some of the noise to make it a little easier to see the big picture of what is happening.

When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher.  Future finished goods, at a retail level, will carry the current wholesale price increase.

Stuff costs a lot now… and because the inbound stuff to make the finished goods is still climbing in price…. stuff is about to cost even more.   You can see this in the inflation rate of intermediate goods which I have highlighted below.

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Joe Biden may be celebrating his historic achievement in reaching an inflationary milestone previously set by Jimmy Carter, but the working class is paying the price for their economic stupidity.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the November inflation rate today [DATA HERE] showing another rise in the annualized rate of inflation of 6.8 percent.  As you review the data, ask yourself this question: ‘Is there anything in the current economic landscape to indicate this is going to stop?’  The honest answer is no.  Here’s why…

As the BLS accurately (albeit briefly) notes, their inflation data reflects the cumulative increases in costs of products and services at all stages in the supply chain.  Raw materials cost more (extraction, regulation impact), processing costs more (energy impact), transport costs more (fuel impact), final goods assembly costs more and handling costs more.  From field-to-fork or mining-to-showcase, the total cost to create stuff costs more. [AP Interactive Chart]

Yes, the inflation data is backward looking. Meaning, it is looking back toward the previous period to compare costs.  However, despite the White House protestations to the contrary, that’s not a good thing, because it is going to get worse.

The contracted price for goods delivered (depending on sector) are net terms in 30, 60 or 90 days.  Meaning, the purchase price on final goods wholesalers are receiving now, were agreed upon months ago.  Those terms for current arriving goods are no longer valid.  The new terms (purchase orders) carry higher costs, and as an outcome higher prices to consumers are still coming.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk was seemingly channeling his inner Galt during a video interview with Joanna Stern of the Wall Street Journal at the CEO Council Summit.  Apparently Mr. Musk can see what’s on the other side of this spending horizon and doesn’t want to experience it.  WATCH:

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The Full Interview is below:

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Many Americans have no idea that Russia is an OPEC member.  Even fewer recognize that Russia’s primary economic export is energy via oil and gas.  Oil and gas exports drive the Russian economy.  Any U.S. policy that drives up the value of oil and gas directly enhances the economy and influence of Russia.

Thanks to Joe Biden’s specific energy policy shutting down U.S. energy exploration, Russia’s economy is booming and has made billions more in the sales of high priced oil and natural gas into Europe and the global marketplace.  That increased oil and gas revenue is directly responsible for Russia’s ability to expand militarily in the region.

So when it comes to threats, like Russia annexing even more of Ukraine as a strategic objective…. Joe Biden is strengthening Russia on one hand and threatening the strength of Russia with the other.  Russian President Vladimir Putin sees this with clear eyes.

Meanwhile the NATO partners who *claim* to be worried about Russia (they’re really not) are the same nations that are buying the oil and gas from Russia.   This was the ridiculous economic dynamic President Trump confronted when he challenged NATO on their energy and national security policies.   Tucker Carlson discusses this:

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FULL Analysis Below Video:

Allianz Group chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, is one of the few financial pundits who understood President Trump’s purposeful economic agenda inside the America First policy {Go Deep and Go Deep}.  However, El-Erian also has to maintain his Wall Street credibility and, like most financial pundits, has to pretend not to know things when the emperor’s new clothes -Biden economics- are being discussed.

El-Erian uses the lingo of the club as he walks carefully in the shadow of his Wall Street allies, and he has to avoid the 800lb gorilla in the room and ignore there are other newly surfacing mechanisms available to the government in their approach to inflation.  In this interview El-Erian does emphasize that inflation is not transitory, it is only going to get worse as long as the Federal Reserve keeps printing money to keep up with the massive and ongoing Democrat spending programs.

When El-Erian says the Fed needs to take their foot off the accelerator, he’s talking about how the Fed policy right now is purchasing debt (Quantative Easing) and printing money to keep up with legislative spending programs.  He knows the Biden administration will not stop this approach, they are committed to the Build Back Better program, and as a consequence El-Erian knows inflation will continue in direct proportion to that ‘demand side‘ activity.  But he cannot call it out directly – he can only say inflation will continue.

All of the Wall Street pundits know the Fed cannot hit the brakes (raise interest rates and stop purchasing debt) or else this entire manipulated economy (even on a global scale) will collapse; as El-Erian says “plunge into a recession.”  It is a tenuous house of cards the current Wall Street crew is betting to remain in place due to the ideological politics (Green New Deal, Build Back Better, etc ).

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When you are at war, you target the enemy supply lines.  A cunning move by the smart Panda targets Joe Biden’s domestic inflation vulnerability.

Beijing can see Joe Biden under internal political attack caused by massive domestic inflation.  China also knows Biden is weak strategically, handcuffed by the leftist demand for climate change / energy policy, and Beijing can see the administration trying to deflect from the consequences of their economic and energy policy.

After the U.S-China summit, used by cunning panda to size up the potential for backlash, anything China can do to further gain dominant position is now just a matter of easy chess moves on the board of dependency.

Business Insider – China’s strict COVID-19 quarantines are making it difficult for ships to change crews, contributing to lags in the shipping process that could worsen the supply chain crisis.

The country has a zero-Covid policy and is imposing ever more stringent containment measures as it tackles its latest wave of outbreaks. On Halloween night, for example, 30,000 people were locked inside Shanghai Disneyland after just one COVID-19 case was detected. And in the northern city of Shenyang, arriving overseas travelers face a 56-day quarantine.

Now, the export hub is imposing mandatory quarantines of up to seven weeks — around 49 days — for Chinese seafarers returning from overseas, Bloomberg reported. These take place in designated facilities and are typically paid for by the employers, according to information posted on various China shipping websites.

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A big win for medical privacy and the principles of freedom.  Ford, General Motors and Stellantis have agreed the United Auto Workers union members will not be forced to take the mandatory vaccine as a condition of employment.  [UAW Announcement] Additionally, the vaccine status of the workers will remain private with a policy of private and voluntary disclosure.

UAW – At a meeting Monday evening, the COVID-19 Joint Task Force, comprised of the UAW, Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, has aligned on a policy of voluntary and confidential disclosure of vaccination status for UAW members. Each company will provide additional communication to employees on how, where and when to report their vaccination status.

In addition to encouraging members to disclose their vaccination status, the Task Force continues to urge all members, coworkers, and their families to get vaccinated and get booster vaccinations against COVID-19, while understanding that there are personal reasons that may prevent some members from being vaccinated, such as health issues or religious beliefs.

After reviewing the status of CDC and OSHA guidelines, the Task Force also decided it is in the best interest of worker safety to continue masks in all worksites at this time. (read more)

This helps swing the pendulum back toward the American worker.

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