President Trump, together with Team USA, attend the 31st summit of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) today.  Paying close attention to who Trump is meeting with, along with the specific length of time allocated to each of the bilateral exchanges, helps to measure the value of each participant in the larger economic strategy.

In the morning (Manilla local time – 8pm U.S. Eastern), President Donald J. Trump will participate in a photo opportunity with President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines. The President will then participate in a welcome ceremony for the 31st ASEAN Summit.
Later in the morning, the President will participate in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull of Australia, followed by a bilateral meeting with President Duterte. In the afternoon, the President will attend the 5th U.S.-ASEAN Summit which commemorates the 40th anniversary of U.S.-ASEAN relations.
Later in the afternoon, the President will participate in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India followed by an embassy meet and greet.
Schedule below:
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Those who have walked in the deep weeds of geopolitical strategy know the emphasis the Trump administration has placed on ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) as a counter-balance (control leverage) to the Chinese trade and military expansion.
The ongoing trade and security relationship between the U.S. and India, as well as other regional partners, is a large part of the overarching dynamic.  The ASEAN Summit in Manilla Philippines is an opportunity for President Trump to expand the conversations; enter into deeper discussions surrounding the terms of partnership; and deepen commitments toward larger U.S. international objectives.

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The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region including India, comprises a combined population of 1.85 billion people, one-fourth of the global population. From the perspective of India – “Prime Minister Modi is likely to reassert India’s push to create a global approach to deal with terrorism. He will also pitch steps to boost regional trade. One of the more significant meetings will be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with US President Donald Trump.”
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Apologies in advance to our conservative Canadian friends; but the explainer here is regarding America-First trade and economics against the backdrop of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, Canada and Mexico’s alignment therein, the APEC Summit and rainbow socks.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Justin from Canada

Here’s why Canada and Mexico signing up to TPP is great news for the U.S., and couldn’t come at a better time for NAFTA round #5 on November 17th.  We don’t want TPP to collapse, because TPP ties the hands of Canada and Mexico to elements of trade that are based on collective interests. Their joining TPP provides the U.S. leverage in NAFTA.
Remember, Vietnam is exactly 12 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern time zone.  At 7:450pm last evening in Vietnam (local time), at the last minute, Rainbow Socks backed out of the signing the TPP framework (explained here).  Twelve hours later, at 7:20am (local), the AP reported the agreement was “back on” with “a compromise”:

DANANG, Vietnam (AP) — The Latest on the summit of 21 Pacific Rim economies in Vietnam (all times local): 7:20 a.m. – Trade ministers say they have reached a basic agreement on a Pacific Rim trade pact without the United States.

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Tonight President Donald Trump will address the national assembly in Seoul, South Korea amid ongoing tensions with North Korea and regional allies over its nuclear program.  This speech is considered one of the most important policy speeches of the trip as President Trump is speaking directly to the National Assembly in the Republic of Korea.
The speech is scheduled at approximately 11:05am (local) / 9:05pm (U.S. EST)
WH Livestream Link – RSBN Livestream Link – Alternate (PBS) Livestream Link

At the conclusion of the speech (12:05pm / 10:05pm) the President and First Lady will participate in a wreath laying ceremony at Seoul National Cemetery prior to departing for China.
[1:25pm / 11:25pm departure from Pyeongtaek, Republic of Korea en route to Beijing.]
[2:40pm / 1:40am Arrival in Beijing, Peoples Republic of China.]
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Those who have followed the Chinese strategy of President Trump will note strong signals of success therein amid an advanced visit ground report from Reuters News Service.
BACKDROP – From the outset the Trump administration displayed a very specific strategy where respect toward China’s leadership was coupled with visible praise for their business acumen and kind words toward the culture of the Chinese people.
This became evident in Mar-a-largo when Prime Minister Xi Jinping and President Trump spent a weekend getting to know each other.
While the surface impression of the relationship is geopolitical adversaries, President Trump has also positioned himself inwardly toward the Chinese people as a modern counter cultural figure not concerned with political correctness and not ashamed of his business success.   This approach is intensely well received in the bamboo forest.
In a culture where the political and sociological influences have historically presented an outlook of affluence and influence as the measure of success, the image of unabashed and unapologetic opulent Trump represents the external personification of this perspective.
Quite simply, it becomes impossible for China’s control authority to ridicule a successful businessman -now influential politician- when they have been selling that image as an honorable goal for decades amid their own culture. The timing is remarkable in consequence.
Simultaneous to this impression, and in a very methodical plan to counter the expansive influence of China, President Trump has used the scale of the U.S. economy to create massive changes in geopolitical economic landscape.
While Trump’s Grandkids sing sweet Mandarin Chinese songs to Xi Jinping and Peng Liyaun (Xi’s wife and herself a cultural icon), he has simultaneously cultivated a powerful counter-leverage position with India’s Prime Minister Modi. In essence, President Trump has positioned himself -and as a consequence the United States- as a powerhouse to be courted by both sides.
India and China are direct and consequential economic adversaries.  President Trump has maneuvered our own U.S. economic policy into the position where that competitive dynamic is now leverage for U.S. economic engagement, trade deals, national security and long-term interests.
It is not coincidental that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson first injected the term “Indo-Pacific” into the geopolitical lexicon of U.S. policy.   It’s a brilliant strategy and paying huge dividends. Bigly.
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While the general position will be to applaud President Trump and CIA Director Mike Pompeo for their commitment to transparency, CTH considers the release against the backdrop of the Trump Doctine.
Right before President Trump heads off to Asia for an extremely important economic and national security visit with wide-ranging implications; and knowing the larger adversarial economic geography surrounding China and their allies (hint, Pakistan); and knowing the Indo-Pacific engagement strategy carried by Trump and Tillerson; and knowing the Trump doctrine is based on brutally righteous sunlight and leverage upon various international deceptions therein… the CIA releases 470k files on the Bin Laden raid highlighting the duplicity between Pakistan and terrorists.

CIA Abbottabad Compound Material –  In an effort to further enhance public understanding of al-Qa’ida, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on 1 November 2017 released additional materials recovered in the 2 May 2011 raid on Usama Bin Ladin’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.
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The White House shares that President Donald Trump called Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Sunday to congratulate him on his overwhelming victory. PM Abe had called a snap election and his ruling coalition won a clear majority with more than two-thirds of the Japanese parliament’s 465 seats.

President Donald J. Trump spoke yesterday with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan to congratulate him on his recent electoral victory. The two leaders underscored the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and a strong United States-Japan alliance. President Trump reaffirmed his desire to continue working closely with Prime Minister Abe, and said he looks forward to visiting Japan in early November. (link)

Prime Minister Abe is a key strategic ally in the region from a national security and economic perspective. As Secretary of State Rex Tillerson outlined extensively last week, the regional Indo-Pacific alliances are repositioning strategically against both the direct threat of the DPRK and the influence of China.
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Panda Reacts To Finding Lion Tracks Amid Shrinking Bamboo Forest !

A Chinese central planner, Zhang Yong, the vice-head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), made a statement today (during the communist party congress) that carries much more significance than most people recognize.

The statement was made on behalf of communist China’s central planners and is directed toward what sectors of their economy they will focus investment (emphasis mine).

BEIJING (Reuters) – China will introduce measures aimed at guiding private investment into areas that have a higher growth potential, a senior official with the state planning agency said on Saturday.
China also would take steps to lower the investment threshold for private investors, said Zhang Yong, the vice-head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), during a briefing on the sidelines of China’s Communist Party Congress.
The manufacturing industry as well as the property market, which have been driving private investment, are now quite weak, Zhang said.
“Now we want to attract investment in sectors with growth potential such as subway projects.” (link)

Notice two key points: #1 forecast growth in manufacturing is seen as “quite weak”, and #2 they are shifting toward building their own domestic transportation infrastructure.
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Those who are following the Trump Doctrine, strategic U.S. geopolitical alliances, and the bigger part of the big picture for how President Trump and the administration are positioning the U.S. economy toward lessening ties with China, will note the significance of this speech and the content therein.  The media will remain oblivious to it.
The Trump Doctrine surrounds modern international economic engagement only possible with a president who is not beholden to the multinational corporations and multinational banks who occupy lobbying offices on K-Street in Washington DC.  A key component of the approach is the ability to build relationships which can be leveraged for America-First interests with national economic partners aligned in common cause.
Under the Trump Doctrine, India is a strategic economic counter-weight to remove the leverage China has created for the past 20+ years.  Nothing that has happened within the strategic approach of President Trump happens accidentally.  Even the positioning of U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is a part of this dynamic lost on almost everyone except a few who understand the insight of a president who has thought through every angle for years prior to taking office.
Small, seemingly obscure, details are part of the big picture; nothing is without design.  Understanding this principle helps to assemble the framework for this speech by Secretary Rex Tillerson.  WATCH:

“China, while rising alongside India, has done so less responsibly, at times undermining the international, rules-based order even as countries like India operate within a framework that protects other nations’ sovereignty.”

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Just because western media doesn’t understand how President Trump executes a geopolitical strategy based on economic leverage, that doesn’t mean adversaries are not fully aware of the effectiveness of the approach.
The Trump Doctrine has two avenues toward dealing with national security adversaries.
The first route is direct assignment of responsibility toward the enablers: see China for North Korea; The Gulf States for Qatar (Sunni extremism); Russia for Syrian terrorism (Assad); and Pakistan for Afghanistan (Taliban); as recent examples.

However, when the geopolitical threat stems directly from the enabler, and not the enabled, the Trump Doctrine has a distinctly different and far more encompassing, approach.  Route two goes through leveraging regional allies and partners: See ASEAN and India for ¹China; and France, Poland, Baltic States for ²Russia.  And now President Trump is beginning to shift toward ³Iran.
In each case: China, Russia and Iran, unlike Western media, these powers assemble volumes of research to assist them in understanding the most likely sequence of events President Trump will take.
When we say volumes of research, we indeed mean hundreds of people researching and drafting position documents based upon every scintilla of every deal Donald J Trump has engaged in.  No expenses are spared as these state actors assemble information toward their own strategy to counter the most unpredictable adversary they have faced.
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