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Alan Dershowitz Discusses "Calm Before The Storm"…

At times Alan Dershowitz can express insufferable political opinions that can make blood pressure cuffs explode.  At other times, on the libertarian side of liberty principles, Dershowitz becomes an ally against the insufferable overbearing administrative state. He’s an odd duck, but carries a quacker worth hearing.
In this segment, the subject matter is well outlined. However, that said, along with every single person in media and punditry, Dershowitz is not connecting President Trump action to the economics of the Trump foreign policy doctrine.


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If people would spend more time studying DJT they’d see the foreign policy strategy of President Trump clear as day. POTUS Trump surrounds himself, optically and vocally, with the overwhelming appearance of military solution providers. This is not accidental; it is entirely by design.
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Secretary of State Rex Tillerson Outlines Administration View on U.S. Foreign Aid and Humanitarian Relief…

Speaking today at the Bill and Melinda Gates sponsored “Grand Challenges” meeting, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson outlines the Trump administration position on U.S. aid and humanitarian relief.

“We must view foreign aid as a means to an end, not an end unto itself. A country’s prosperity and security is best sustained from within, not through foreign aid. There can be no greater measure of success than witnessing a country able to stand on its own two feet.” ~ Secretary Tillerson


[Transcript] SECRETARY TILLERSON: Good afternoon. And thank you so much, Harry, for that very kind introduction.
The work and commitment of the Bill and Melinda – of Bill and Melinda Gates and the Gates Foundation that they have undertaken across a range of humanitarian initiatives have had an extraordinary impact on eradicating diseases and improving health outcomes for people the world over. And I offer my thanks once again, as I have thanked them in the past, to Bill and Melinda both for this life-long passion and commitment – much of which I have seen up close and personal. And I certainly am thankful for what they have done to help so many.
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Snicker – Tillerson Chats With Big Panda While Lion Rhetoric Roars in Background of Bamboo Forest…

President Trump tweeted this morning while Secretary Rex Tillerson is in China meeting with Xi Jinping about what to do with North Korea. ….or put another way: Tillerson chats about Rocket-boy consequences with big Panda while the sound of a lion roaring is heard over the background of the bamboo forest.
If you’ve been following along, Trump/Tillerson creating the need for ‘Magnanimous Panda’ is actually quite fun to watch unfold.

President Trump will never use the U.S. military to solve this regional issue.  The national security strategy is based entirely on economics (leverage) and diplomacy (ownership).  President Trump’s words and rhetoric against Kim Jong-un, and the response from Jong-un in kind toward President Trump, creates the foundation of a need for magnanimous panda to step in.
Remember, Beijing doesn’t want to take ownership of DPRK.  China prefers to retain influence over behavior, they are the enablers, but not be directly responsible for the enforcement of any agreement which comes with attached consequences (economic punishment) for DPRK violations.
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Beijing Orders North-Korea Businesses to Close Operations in China…

Before getting to the heart of the latest announcement it is important to note there is a great deal of rapid economic action taking shape in China ahead of Secretary Rex Tillerson’s arrival.   ¹China has stopped the import of recyclables.  ²Chinese manufacturing is slowing.  ³Comac (chinese aerospace) has successfully tested their latest airliner.
#1 is important because it reflects the opinion of the central economic planners in Beijing that #2 is more severe than currently publicized. #3 is important because Canada’s plan in the Boeing -vs- Bombardier trade dispute was to look toward China to purchase Canadian subsidized aerospace products. Purchases won’t happen because China is creating it’s own airline manufacturing industry with Comac (a Beijing subsidized industry). However, China is more than willing to give the illusion of trade in order to steal Bombardier technology.
Those are all subtle signals of economic activity within China.
However, today the bigger economic story is an outcome of President Trump and Treasury Mnuchin outlining specific sanctions against any entity that engages in economic activity with North Korea.
Beijing understands the consequences to the Trump/Mnuchin sanctions and finds themselves in a tight position where allowing DPRK business interests to operate within China violates the intended purpose to cut off North Korea from it’s economic enablers.

(Via Daily Mail) China has ordered North Korean companies in the country to shut down by January as it applies UN sanctions imposed following Pyongyang’s sixth nuclear test.
The commerce ministry in Beijing said today the companies, including joint ventures with Chinese firms, have 120 days to close from the date the United Nations resolution was adopted on September 12.

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"Magnanimous Panda" – China's Envoy Worried About "Dangerous Rhetoric"…

For those who have followed the months-long strategy of President Trump toward North Korea and China, the latest words from China fall squarely into place. Unfortunately for those who have not followed the approach, the consequential nuance will be lost.
What is happening publicly is entirely predictable when we accept what is happening privately, against the backdrop of activity that has taken place since February of this year.
Remember the Trumpian objective of creating the “Magnanimous Panda” as you read these latest words from Beijing:

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Reacting to remarks by North Korea’s foreign minister on Monday, China’s U.N. Ambassador Liu Jieyi told Reuters the escalating rhetoric between North Korea and the United States was getting too dangerous and the only solution was negotiations.
North Korea’s Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters that President Donald Trump had declared war on North Korea and Pyongyang reserves the right to take countermeasures, including shooting down U.S. bombers even if not in its air space.

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Well, Well, Well – Beijing Calls For "Six Party Talks"…

Yesterday President Trump called Xi Jinping; CTH noted the pattern.  The reason – today President Trump would be messaging toward Beijing.  [There is a difference between talking to Xi Jinping, and talking to Beijing.] Well, did anyone notice President Trump referencing the post WWII “Marshall Plan” today during his U.N. Speech?
And….

Sept. 19 (UPI) China’s foreign ministry is urging other countries to return to the “spirit” of the six-party talks and seeking more diplomatic cooperation on North Korea.
Beijing’s diplomatic spokesman Lu Kang said Tuesday that China places value on the Sept. 19 joint statement of the six-party talks, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported. (link)

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President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu Meet at U.N. Conference – Thoughts on Bigger Picture…

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly today in New York.
In a brief joint press availability President Trump stated an optimistic outlook, “an absolute go”, toward the potential for a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.


CTH readers will note the ongoing quiet diplomacy that has been a foundational block of the Trump administration from day-one.   In an under-reported recent development Hamas has agreed to hand Gaza to a unity government of the Palestinian Authority.
Those who follow the mid-east closely will note the need for Hamas and the P.A. to align in singular voice was a precondition to the stabilization efforts of Egypt when President Fattah al-Sisi negotiated cease-fire terms in 2014.  President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry were cut-out from the conversation that eventually led to that cease-fire.
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Pattern Recognition – Readout: President Trump Calls President Xi Jinping of China…

It is important for political travelers deep in the weeds to reference and recognize patterns that encompass significant geopolitical events.  Businessman Donald Trump has, as a natural disposition of his approach, always maintained a specific engagement pattern of respect toward his adversaries; he carries this same approach into the diplomatic role of the presidency.
Tomorrow President Trump will be speaking to the U.N. General Assembly. There is a great deal of anticipatory media reporting circling how  international community are evaluating the administration; and how President Trump will outline the “Trump Doctrine”.
CTH readers have already identified the specifics of the Trump Doctrine not through high-brow analysis, but simply by looking at the action taken and the geopolitical approach of using economics as transactional leverage to gain national security objectives.
When President Trump discusses the issues with North Korea tomorrow, there will be a clarity of purposeful intent broadcast toward the larger international community.  However, the specific target of that address as it relates to the DPRK will be squarely aimed at Beijing.
How can an interested follower be assured of this prediction?
Simple really, it goes back to the diplomatic pattern recognition.   When POTUS Trump is planning on delivering a bitter pill of truth, he takes the lumps out in advance via direct contact with the economic adversary who will bear the brunt of internal demands for response.
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Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin: "stick to the goal of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula"…

Well, that didn’t take too long.  For those who might not be familiar with the key issue in the breakdown of prior six-party talks (China, Russia, DPRK, S-Korea, Japan and U.S.), the issue was “denuclearization”.
Both China and Russia have just announced a shift in their public policy.  Together Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin agree the goal for the Korean Peninsular should be denuclearization:

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed Sunday to “appropriately deal with” the latest nuclear test by North Korea, state news agency Xinhua said.
“The two leaders agreed to stick to the goal of denuclearisation on the Korean Peninsula and keep close communication and coordination to deal with the new situation,” Xinhua said in a brief dispatch.

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China’s Inherent Economic Weakness – Why They Need "One-Belt/One-Road"…

To understand the China ‘One-Belt / ‘One-World‘ economic trade strategy it becomes necessary to understand how structurally weak the Chinese economy was when created.
People often talk about the ‘strength’ of China’s economic model; and indeed within a specific part of their economy -manufacturing- they do have economic strength.
However, the underlying critical architecture of the Chinese economic model is structurally flawed and President Trump with his current economic team understand the weakness better than all international adversaries.
Lets take a stroll and lightly discuss.
China is a central planning economy. Meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions. China was/is controlled as a communist style central-planning government; As such, it is important to reference the basic structural reality that China’s economy was created from the top down.
This construct of government creation is a key big picture distinction that sets the backdrop to understand how weak the economy really is.
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