Today Canada released an updated list of retaliatory tariffs designed as countermeasures to the U.S. Steel and Aluminum tariffs [SEE HERE] which will begin Sunday, July 1st.
Additionally, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains, and Employment and Labour Minister Patty Hajdu, announced they would initiate an emergency program to use Canadian taxes compensate workers, expand unemployment benefits, and subsidize impacted industry.  Yes, in a transparent display of political ideology (throwing capitalism directly out the window), Canada doubles-down on centralized government subsidies to offset market impacts.   Brilliant ‘eh!

Chrystia Freeland made the announcement on the floor of a Hamilton steel factory Friday. In a rare backdrop, Ms. Freeland actually entered a factory with machines and things, to deliver the carefully choreographed political message (video below – watch the last minute to understand).
Team U.S.A. have applied tariffs to Canadian softwood lumber, Steel and Aluminum as Canada refuses to negotiate new terms for NAFTA where North American products are prioritized.  Canada demands the ability to continue importing Asian, mostly Chinese, products for their assembly-based market.
With the latest counter-move by Justin and Chrystia from Canada, it is increasingly likely President Trump will levy a 20% tariff on imported Canadian automobiles.  Last month (May) the Canadian economy dropped over 31,000 Full-Time jobs.
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Earlier today President Trump delivered remarks celebrating the six month anniversary of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.   Today is also the last business day of the second quarter.

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Long time CTH readers might note in 2015 when we first saw candidate Trump’s economic policy initiatives, we began outlining the sequential economic possibilities if President Trump won. So far, all is going according to plan – STUNNINGLY According To Plan.  Seriously, go back and look –FEBRUARY 2016– two-and-a-half years ago.
The possibilities were obvious.  As a result we predicted repeatedly that Q2 of 2018 would be the beginning of the largest period of U.S. GDP and wage growth in the past 30 years.  Q2 2018 ends tomorrow and the results of Q2 will be announced in the next few weeks.  Everything is happening in a logical sequence as a result of Trump’s MAGAnomic plans.
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From the office of Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross: The groundbreaking on Foxconn’s $10-billion factory to produce state-of-the-art flat-panel displays in Mount Pleasant represents a milestone for America.
With a 20-million-square-foot campus situated on 3,000 acres, the new Foxconn plant will be among the largest factories ever built in the United States. It will take two years and 10,000 construction workers to build, and employ 13,000 workers when in full production of a variety of LCD screens. It is one of the largest foreign direct investments ever made in the United States.

It would never have happened without the promise of the Trump tax cuts and the President’s personal intervention.
As important as the new factory is to the workers of Wisconsin, the facility is also a symbol of what is to come: It is the first of a large number of investments in advanced manufacturing facilities being reshored from overseas locations back to the United States.
Foxconn CEO Terry Gou has already said that he is considering another enormous facility in the United States.
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National Economic Council Chairman Larry “Kuddles” Kudlow is back after suffering a mild heart attack. [Yikes, “mild“, is there such a thing?]
Appearing on TV with Stuart Varney Chairman Kudlow explains how the administration hopes to use the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA) to enhance U.S. trade policy.  Mr. Varney cannot comprehend Trump-speed in achieving a global trade reset:

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While media wasn’t paying attention, President Trump brilliantly played congress to gain strategic trade leverage.  Knowing political opposition would unite, POTUS Trump took a forgiving position toward Chinese company ZTE; Trump-haters and NeverTrumpers quickly aligned to push through hammer legislation designed to hurt China and by extension Trump’s position.  However, Trump actually wanted the tool.  POTUS now weaponizes FIRRMA as trade leverage against all 301 targets.   Brilliant.
USTR Robert Lighthizer Final 301 Report on China Trade Infractions HERE
Part 2 of Kudlow interview below:
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There is an article from Bloomberg which finally concedes the obvious economic and trade dynamic within a U.S. -vs- China confrontation.  The media paradigm shift is based on new statements from Chinese Ministers admitting they cannot win a trade confrontation with U.S. President Trump.
The summary reason is simple, we have discussed it frequently:
China is a production-based economic model, they do not have the ability, or wealth, to consume their own durable goods production; they rely on exports.
The U.S. is a more balanced economy; we consume 80% of our own production.  We are self-sustaining, China is not.
Without a market to sell their products, the Chinese economy cannot survive.
Conversely, China has focused so intensely on durable-goods manufacturing, their consumable goods market (food) is dependent; they cannot feed themselves.  The U.S. can survive without exporting food, China cannot survive without importing food.  The U.S. economy can survive without importing durable goods; the Chinese economy cannot survive without exporting durable goods.  This is the unavoidable trade reality.  As a consequence President Trump has all the factual leverage.
In stunning, and carefully worded economic writings, Chinese academics and economic ministers are now talking about the inherent weakness of the Red Dragon policies:
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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross gives an interview with CNBC about how the administration’s ongoing trade initiatives are addressing U.S. products and interactions with ongoing congressional stakeholders.
One of the more recent globalist (Wall Street) approaches to fend-off President Trump’s America First trade reset has been to target the ethical position of Secretary Ross; within the interview Ross swats away press reports about his current and prior investments.

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This win needs to be sipped slowly for maximum enjoyment.  

First, we would draw your attention to May 23rd, when President Trump announced an instruction to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to begin a Section 301 review of the auto industry a week prior to the implementation of the Steel and Aluminum tariffs.
At the time when all media were discussing other ‘matters’ CTH pointed out the strategy that was visible in the Auto-Sector.  China, the EU (specifically Germany), and Canada were the strategic trade targets in the approach.  About a week later, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland snarkily announced her “sisterhood in trade” with EU Trade Minister Cecilia Malström, and how together they formed a strategy and were going to block President Trump.  They were very pleased with themselves (please watch).
Freeland and Prime Minister Justin from Canada, then strategized with Emmanuel from France and Angela from Germany on how they were going to use the G7 to embarrass President Trump on trade conflict issues via the summit; and subsequent use of media press conferences.  The entire thing back-fired, bigly.  President Trump announced the tariffs would continue until trade reciprocity improved.

It’s been two weeks since the best-laid-scheme was attempted.  In the interim, the international audience has watched President Trump’s unrelenting approach toward China.
In the grand-trade-conflict; China is a big fight none of the sideline players would ever attempt.  However, the downstream consequence of the international trade team watching intently is their realization that President Trump is not bluffing.  You can hear the proverbial gulps from across the Atlantic; and the tremors up North.
Back to May 23rd, 2018, and remember the auto tariff proposal.  President Trump has made it clear that he’s more than willing to use reciprocal trade tariffs against all trade partners in getting fair and balanced trade.  He ain’t bluffing.
Well, guess what just happened?
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White House Trade Policy Adviser Peter Navarro discusses the release of the White House Trade and Manufacturing Policy report (full pdf below) on China.

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Today, the White House Office of Trade & Manufacturing Policy (OTMP) released a report outlining how China’s policies threaten the economic and national security of the United States.
OTMP studied how China seeks to capture, through its “Made in China 2025” plan, the emerging high-technology industries that will drive future economic growth. China is targeting industries ranging from artificial intelligence, aerospace, and augmented and virtual reality to high-speed rail and shipping and new energy vehicles. Many of these “Made in China 2025” industries have important defense applications.
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From the U.S. Dept. of Commerce – Today, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross announced the affirmative preliminary determination in the first antidumping duty (AD) trade case the Federal government has initiated since 1985. This historic self-initiated AD investigation concerns imports of common alloy aluminum sheet from China.

This investigation, and the companion countervailing duty investigation, was initiated by the Enforcement and Compliance division of the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration under the authority granted to the Secretary in the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended. The CVD investigation reached a preliminary determination in February 2018 and is still being adjudicated.
“The Department of Commerce will do everything in its power to stop the flow of unfairly subsidized or dumped goods into U.S. markets,” said Secretary Ross. “We will continue to strictly enforce U.S. laws to defend American workers, industries, and communities from the scourge of unfair and unbalanced trade.”
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When you plant your tree in another man’s orchard, you might end up paying for your own apples; it’s a risk you take…
….and President Trump knows how to use that leverage better than anyone could possibly fathom; because in this metaphor Beijing relies upon the U.S. for both the seeds and the harvest.  President Trump drops the $200b M.O.A.T (Mother of All Tariffs):

White House – On Friday, I announced plans for tariffs on $50 billion worth of imports from China. These tariffs are being imposed to encourage China to change the unfair practices identified in the Section 301 action with respect to technology and innovation. They also serve as an initial step toward bringing balance to our trade relationship with China.

However and unfortunately, China has determined that it will raise tariffs on $50 billion worth of United States exports. China apparently has no intention of changing its unfair practices related to the acquisition of American intellectual property and technology. Rather than altering those practices, it is now threatening United States companies, workers, and farmers who have done nothing wrong.

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