U.S.T.R Robert Lighthizer: U.S. Closing in on NAFTA Agreement With Mexico – Meanwhile, Canada is Useless…

For those following the nuance within ongoing U.S. trade discussions you have likely noted Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer speaking optimistically about a potential for a U.S. Mexico trade agreement. However, simultaneously the U.S. trade team is not optimistic about any deal with Canada.

Mexico’s President-Elect Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has changed the trade dynamic internally within NAFTA for two reasons: #1) because the agriculture sector is much more critical to Mexico than it is to Canada; and #2) AMLO acknowledges and accepts the NAFTA fatal flaw; his manufacturing economy is based on the assembly of imported parts – like Canada, Mexico doesn’t actually manufacture much (ex. no aluminum smelters).

[Pompeo congratulating AMLO – Not an accidental delegation]

In the big picture AMLO wants to advance the Mexican manufacturing base; expand the aggregate economic base; and also stop the corporate exploitation of the Mexican farm worker. In these objectives U.S. President Trump is more than willing to be a partner with President Lopez Obrador. Heck, President Trump would actually love to assist AMLO on that agenda; it is mutually beneficial.

Diametrically, in Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has doubled-down on the retention of the fatal flaw and does not want an expanded domestic manufacturing base. The enviro-nuts of his base just will not support it. Therefore, Canada is loggerheads with the United States because Canada is demanding to retain their NAFTA access to the U.S. market, and simultaneously retain their ability to broker imported Chinese goods.

[Again, not an accidental congratulatory delegation.  Think about the Trump Doctrine]

This means a trade deal with Mexico is possible; and a trade deal with Canada is almost impossible. So the U.S. has focused on negotiations with Mexico for terms of an ‘agreement in principle’, at an “unprecedented speed.” In this regard, according to U.S.T.R. Lighthizer, the U.S. and Mexico are very close to coming to that agreement. The U.S. team and Mexican team are meeting again today in Washington DC.

If they come to an agreement, two key issues are resolved which puts even more leverage and pressure on Canada: First, the biggest downside concern for the U.S. agriculture sector would be belayed.  Second, it isolates Canada providing Prime Minister Trudeau an excuse (political cover) to take a knee – presuming he’s not an idiot.

It is still tenuous, however the U.S. and Mexico look close to an agreement. Together we then present a take-it-or-leave-it opportunity for Canada to join. If Canada doesn’t join based on the U.S./Mexico terms, then NAFTA is dead…

…Politically President Trump explains why NAFTA is dead; the U.S. and Mexico immediately unveil the framework of the joint bilateral trade agreement; AMLO and Trump have political cover, a partnership is immediate; and U.S./Mexican business interests move along without an immediate hitch.

Brilliant.

Smart play.

WASHINGTON DC – [Ambassador Lighthizer] “U.S. is closing in on a deal to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but said China is going to be a “longer-term problem. That isn’t to say we’re going to be in a trade war with China, in my judgment. But I think we have to change the dynamic.” On NAFTA, Mr. Lighthizer said the administration has been renegotiating the free-trade deal at “an unprecedented speed.”

“Hopefully, we are in the finishing stages of achieving an agreement in principle that will benefit American workers, farmers, ranchers, and businesses,” he said. (read more)

The momentum for this bilateral U.S./Mexico approach comes from an agreement in principle with the European Union.   The EU is heavily invested in Mexico.  It makes sense that President Trump would leverage the EU money (sunk cost) into Mexico as part of the U.S./EU trade negotiations….. which is why Wilbur Ross was the tip-of-the-spear.

Leverage.

See how that works?

Nudge, nudge…

Wink, wink….

Say-no-more….. Say-no-more !!

Killers.  We have them.

Bigly.

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This entry was posted in Donald Trump, Election 2018, media bias, Mexico, NAFTA, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

286 Responses to U.S.T.R Robert Lighthizer: U.S. Closing in on NAFTA Agreement With Mexico – Meanwhile, Canada is Useless…

  1. bkrg2 says:

    So is AMLO a good guy? Bad or neutral?

    Since his election, the few stories i have read seem positive to relationships with usa

    Pre election, he seemed almost as baf as the usa demonrats. Almost as bad…

    Like

    • Publius2016 says:

      we wont know until hes in power…right now, Senor O has to gett inaugurated first then he has to consolidate the military as well…Mexico has many internal social issues that may explode with financial instability so Senor O needs to secure the first few years to implement whatever his planned for over 20 years hes been running…

      Like

    • Alfred Barnes says:

      He’s a populist. Draw your own inferences. Trump will go down as either the second George Washington or the second Benedict Arnold. We all have to make our own place in the world. Mexico’s new president is no different.

      Like

    • sat0422 says:

      All we really knew or heard about AMLO was that he was a rigid Socialists who was going to send all Mexicans to the USA. Then I read where some powerful group in Mexico has fined his campaign 10,000,000 for violating campaign laws in Mexico. Really….

      Time will tell but at least his brain isn’t frozen like those of Canadians….LOL

      Liked by 2 people

      • Cheryl says:

        I’m Canadian, and i DO NOT SUPPORT my gov’t. Please do not put down ordinary canucks–we are in a horrible position with such a useless Prime Minister

        Liked by 4 people

        • DanBC says:

          Ditto. Trudope’s base lay in the welfare state of Eastern Canada (Quebec, Ontario and the maritime) that prefer more welfare handouts, than earning the benefits of investment and work. Think a french white Obama without the speaking skills. Many Canadians support Trump, like myself, to help fix our moribund regressive economy. Whatever it takes Mr Trump, do it! MAGA

          Like

          • revolta says:

            NDP govt in Alberta are really Nixon wannabees.
            They call BC Lotusland because of the flowers.
            Saskatchewan never heard of Tommy Douglas.
            The NDP never governed Manitoba from 1999-2016.
            No Liberals were elected west of Ontariowe in the last federal election.
            All the preceding is Fake News.

            That DanBC is more clueless than Canada’s Groovy Groper PM is not .

            Like

  2. Fools Gold says:

    Politically I get it Sundance and maybe I can’t see daylight for the sunglasses but I’m pretty much a redneck when it comes to illegal border crossings, drugs, gangs, prostitution, porn and Mexicans cheating Americans out of its tax dollars. and wanting a full wall and security finished like yesterday? I thought this guy was a socialist pig and I ain’t into socialist pigs. Don’t disagree with ya much but no, Amlo and his pedrosessors sux!

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Bill_M says:

    “it isolates Canada providing Prime Minister Trudeau an excuse (political cover) to take a knee – presuming he’s not an idiot.”
    .
    Ahhhh, but Trudeau is an idiot. Oh Canada, bail yourselves out of this mess Trudeau has gotten your fine country into.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Cooper45 says:

    The American tourist sector is one part of the economy that could be hurt more than some realize if the NAFTA deal fails. That is if $ 25 billion appx. entering the U.S. from Canadian tourists is considered a sum worth mentioning. In 2015, Canadians made almost 21 million overnight trips. From Jan to Sep. this year 15 million overnight trips to the U.S. have occurred so it’s likely it will be more than 2015. The figures dropped slightly in 2016 after the Trump travel ban and the hyperbolic lefties organized a tourist boycott to the U.S.

    But it soon failed miserably. Canadian trips to the U.S. were up. The concept of 2 countries sharing a common and peaceful border has not yet been shattered but it could happen if hard economic times hit Canadians and Trudeau and Chrystia manage to miraculously and dishonestly escape the blame and point their sanctimonious fingers at Trump.

    “South Korean trips to the U.S. have spiked this year, (2017) while Italy, Ireland, and Spain’s % numbers are higher than Canada’s. But trips to the U.S. from the U.K., China, Mexico, India, Switzerland, and a clutch of South American countries are down significantly.”

    If the NAFTA deal fails and Justin’s Canada is kept out of the loop, the Canadian dollar will likely tank due to uncertainty and American tourist venues across America, and the many retail centers close to the border that cater to day trip purchasers, could be significantly impacted by the NAFTA failure. But overall, it’s a small drop in the American economic mega bucket I suppose. But not necessarily to all in the U.S. tourist sector.

    A low Canadian dollar will be favorable for some Canadian exporters but not for any American importer because the price of their products will be more expensive. Justin and Chrystia will still have their sacred Marketing Boards with import tariffs of 270 % for poultry, milk, eggs etc but what else will they lose? I doubt they know or want to know. For liberals, politics trumps economics but it’s actually the reverse in the end. More American Dems might want to visit Canada due to the low dollar but the anti Trump sentiment led by the pro Justin lib Canadian media might deter others.

    Like

    • Orville R. Bacher says:

      When you visit Canada, it is endless anti-Trump, anti-American media 24/7. Think out of their minds sanctimony and you will have an idea.

      Liked by 1 person

      • George says:

        Orville
        You are absolutely right on that and as a Canadian find it unbearable to the point I do not even associate with some friends anymore as I just cant stand the stupidity of the TDS that they are spoon fed from the Canadian media.. Most have the small man syndrome as envy of the States is underwriting it it but they feel so superior over Americans.. Can assure you when there my MAGA hat gets looks and insults.
        Yes the “ugly Canadian”.. I travel a lot and actually live in Estonia now.. And so easy to pick out the typical smug Canadian as they plaster their rucksacks with the Canadian flag.. And it is because they want the world to know they are not American.. It really is nauseating .. I could not count how many times I have been told ” We live in the best country in the world”… ” Best Medical system in the world”… Yada yada..
        MAGA

        Liked by 1 person

      • Cooper45 says:

        Orville:
        “When you visit Canada, it is endless anti-Trump, anti-American media 24/7.”

        Note–It is not just the USA and Trump that are the targets of this obsessive and deranged criticism by many Canadians. Former Conservative PM Harper and his Conservative MP’s were constantly attacked by lefties in a similar way to the way they attack Trump. During his last year, it was no holds barred insanity.

        Like

    • john says:

      Like in politics, it is all about the money. No matter if you are a Dem or a Rep….unless it is for nationalistic or patriotic considerations, you will always go where your dollar buys you 30% more. One American dollar will give you an exchange of $1.37. Not bad if you had a sizeable purchase. I think Canada might consider manipulation with its currency to ward off some of the President’s righteous leveling of the playing field.

      Like

    • Cooper45 says:

      It’s a day too late to make a correction that nobody will read, but better late than never.

      “From Jan to Sep. this year 15 million overnight trips to the U.S. have occurred so it’s likely it will be more than 2015.” “this year” should obviously have been 2017. I did enter it correctly in the quoted passage.

      Like

  5. Doug Amos says:

    No argument with anything here. Canadians have bought into their media coercions at a rate of 87% with no attendant forethought; they deserve what they have got. Nevertheless, leaving friends behind is not in Mr Trump’s heart and mind. He will find a way to make it all work for everybody and North Americans will be the beneficiaries. Sure Justine and his feckless liberals are unworthy but this American president focuses on making the world a better place, at whatever cost with no time for trivial pursuits. Attack him at your own peril, deride him with caution; the goal posts are not moving and the man carrying the ball knows where he is going.

    Like

  6. nm says:

    Canadians will always come to US to spend money…bank on it…irregardless of their current clueless leadership…Finalizing a deal with Mexico is the final nail in Trudeau’s coffin.. Trump has leveraged these countries perfectly….look at what he garnered just from the EU this week…Canada has now been isolated, which was Potus plan…Trudeau needs to grow up and grow a pair and come to the table and kiss the ring…HE HAS predictably lost this War….

    Liked by 1 person

  7. nm says:

    Repeat after me….TARIFFS ARE BAD…TARIFFS ARE BAD…Potus wants to leverage these countries and force them to ZERO TARIFFS….ZERO. When he broached this at the G7 people had a stroke and laughed at him…they are now coming around and more open to his idea….

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Lemmy says:

    “…presuming he’s not an idiot.”

    That’s one heck of a presumption about Rainbow Socks.

    Like

  9. shipley130 says:

    Exploitation of the Mexican farm worker? Have you seen the vehicles the Mexican farm workers drive? 45,000 dollar SUV, etc.

    Like

  10. Plowboy says:

    Yea, tell me about it. And I still drive around in my 1997Ford PU. And I own my farm.

    Like

  11. FredR says:

    Presuming that PM Trudeau is not an idiot is like presuming water is not wet. The better is question to ask is whether the governing Liberals are willing to take the economic hit of losing NAFTA in order to play politics and hide the effect of all their other bad policies behind the bogeyman of mean Donald Trump … they answer, unfortunately for Canadians, is a resounding yes!

    Like

  12. Pyrthroes says:

    Speculation seems bootless on our rudimentary level. But impression is, as Sundance so ably recounts, that “socialism” to Obrador connotes a nationalist-patriotic, above all realistic, dedication to Mexico’s peace-and-prosperity in cooperation with Trump’s U.S. if not Trudeau’s benighted Canada. In other words, despite his rhetoric, AMLO (like Trump) has his country’s well-being at heart, with independent character and Will enough to Fight the Fight.

    For all its esoteric aura, “economics” as set forth by Hayek and von Mises, Milton Friedman apropos Adam Smith and J.S. Mill, is basically enlightened common sense. People know and act in their best interests; unhindered individual initiative drives all else; as by an “invisible hand”, spontaneously emergent order fills-and-sorts production as comparative advantage and marginal utility direct.

    Collectivist Statists have three goals: Divide-and-rule, or ruin; something for nothing (which becomes nothing for something); not competition but conflict– us-against-them. These progress from an initial, largely cosmetic, windshield-wiping Squeegee Phase to a communal, literally “death-eating” degenerative Herpes Phase (“free love”, anything goes, and all the rest); finally, as “things fall apart”, to a murderously retrogressive, totalitarian Einsatz Phase, seeking to irrigate Socialism’s desolation with people’s blood by “ethnic cleansing”, holocaust, holodomor, mounting Police State death-squads to hunt down and eat their own.

    The template for this is Aristophanes’ “The Birds” (BC 414), in whose Cloud Cuckoo Land a corps of layabout aristoi dine off “the slaves”. About this attitude, it pays to realize that “scum rises to the top”– under totalitarian State tyranny, value becomes worthless, self-selected psycho-sociopaths mount pedestals, dash every hope, obscure oppressive reality by perpetual war. Of course, all this is mere cliche,,, and yet, as ever, “the best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity” (Yeats, “Second Coming”, 1919). When reality entails “mere words”, inane verbalisms such as Bernie’s and Mde. Coco-loco’s, death-and-dissolution crash the party by default.

    Like

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