What we can take away from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index on manufacturing [Data Here]: overall, the U.S. manufacturing sector is continuing to expand significantly.  The current index of 55.6 percent in July is 2.3 percentage points above the June figure and the highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent), when we were trying to recover from the COVID-19 shutdowns and supply chain problems.

PMI – The overall economy continued in expansion for the 21st month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index expanded for the seventh consecutive month after four straight readings in contraction, registering 56.7 percent, up 0.7 percentage point compared to June’s figure of 56 percent.

The July reading of the Production Index (58.5 percent) is 6.3 percentage points higher than the 52.2 percent recorded in June and the highest figure since November 2021 (60.5 percent). The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 71.1 percent, a 1.9-percentage point decrease from June’s reading of 73 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 55 percent, up 4.5 percentage points compared to the 50.5 percent recorded in June.

The Employment Index reading of 52.8 percent is up 3.1 percentage points from June’s figure of 49.7 percent, putting the index in expansion territory for the first time in 33 months.” (source)

All that data and a couple of bucks will buy you a cup of coffee, but here’s what it means in common speak.

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I have a half-day of travel that takes me offline until later today; however, President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks on the economy today in the Lehigh Valley area of Pennsylvania.

President Donald Trump will deliver a speech during his visit to the Mack Trucks manufacturing plant in Lower Macungie Township.  The event is scheduled for 2:00pm ET with livestream links below.

UPDATE: VIDEO ADDED

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Leading the beginning of the media event with an announcement of the Iran agreement, President Trump notes a signing event for the negotiated deal will likely take place in Europe attended by JD Vance.

President Trump then moved quickly to the topic of an executive order opening fisheries for U.S. commercial fishing fleets, making announcements about the subject before opening up for questions. WATCH:

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Ironically, I find myself with a grin on my face as I read the recent media reports about how the data processing demand behind AI is beyond the scope of financial sustainability.

For several years I have asserted, accurately, the business model for social media was never feasible because the data processing demand needed for the scale of simultaneous users was beyond the capabilities of the revenue side of the equation.  I have been told by all the high-horse experts on the matter how wrong I am.  However, each story they write about the prohibitive cost of AI proves I was not wrong.

CTH watches the tokenization and subscription fees for various AI model use with the same perspective CTH viewed over a decade of false claims within the financial market that told lies about social media viability and data processing costs.

Now, we watch the seemingly exponential growth of AI capabilities and associated costs with the same pragmatic perspective.

Robotic pool cleaners were introduced two generations ago.  Did the pool cleaner business dry up? No, it expanded.  Robotic vacuums broke into the popular household appliance market five years ago, you probably have one, did it eliminate maid services?  No, still growing.

AI can now write its own code to generate outputs. Are software developers getting fired?  No, demand for software designers and engineers is up 15% in the past year.

The mainframe approach, the one AI brain to run all systems, will never work – it is cost prohibitive (see first paragraph – wash, rinse, repeat).  Deny this reality at your own investment risk. If needed, politely absorb the ridicule – for it matters not.

CTH predicts AI will become a localized and optimized sub-set for each sector of the economy, requiring each major organization and corporation to adopt specific cost/benefit data libraries and networks for use and functionality.

At scale, a thousand coders each working on Gemini, ChatGPT, Anthropic, Grok, etc. will become 100,000+ software designers working inside companies to create personalized, targeted, bespoke AI data systems and networks; each system specifically tailored to the industry or sector of business.  The intranet of internets will happen again.

Creating and selling AI system networks and integration functions that are personally tailored to highly specific company functions, creates an entirely new sector of the technology industry that has not even begun yet. [There’s an investment opportunity there]

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It’s not Mexico that needs a trade deal with Europe, it’s the opposite.

For almost two decades Europe has been investing heavily inside Mexico, particularly noted in the auto industry, as they positioned themselves to take advantage of NAFTA and later the USMCA as an entry to the U.S. market.

European auto companies spent billions on assembly plants in Mexico, where they could ship EU manufactured component goods to be assembled into NAFTA/USMCA compliant vehicles.  As President Trump and USTR Greer begin focusing on eliminating the USMCA trade agreement in favor of two bilateral deals (U.S-Canada and U.S-Mexico), Europe now needs to protect prior investment.

The prior Mexico-EU trade agreement has existed since 2000 (NAFTA timeframe).  In 2025 they agreed to a revised Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and finalized the terms and conditions yesterday.

MEXICO CITY, May 22 (Reuters) – Mexico and the European Union signed a long-stalled free trade agreement on Friday as they seek to decrease dependence on the U.S. and partially insulate themselves from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The accord, which they reached broad agreement on in 2025 but have delayed signing, expands a Mexico-EU trade accord from 2000, which covered only industrial goods. The new pact adds services, government procurement, digital trade, investment and farm produce.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa are to sign the deal in Mexico City in their first summit in over a decade.

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The Supreme Court ruled unanimously today that freight brokers can be sued under state negligence laws if they hire unsafe trucking companies (ones with bad safety records) that later cause accidents, crashes or bodily harm. {Ruling pdf Here}

Freight brokers are the middlemen in the transport system matching available loads with available truckers. Freight brokers have notoriously chosen the cheapest truckers and carrier companies to move freight. However, as of this ruling, federal law no longer shields the broker from liability and insurance claims anymore. Victims can now go after the broker’s insurance in addition to the Truck driver’s and/or carrier.

All of those illegal alien truckers who were hired by sketchy carrier companies will now carry a liability risk for the freight broker who might contract the haul.  Ultimately, it is the insurance companies who will drive the change by raising insurance rates on those who would contract with sketchy drivers.

VIA AP – WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court on Thursday allowed a man to sue a major logistics company after he lost part of his leg in a semi tractor-trailer crash, a decision that could have big ripple effects across the trucking industry.

The justices ruled unanimously in favor of Shawn Montgomery, whose parked vehicle was hit by a speeding truck driver on an Illinois highway in 2017. He wants to sue C.H. Robinson, the country’s largest freight broker by size, over its role in putting the driver on the road despite what he called “serious red flags.”

The decision does not mean Montgomery will necessarily win the lawsuit, which the company is contesting. But the ruling opens the door to increased liability for freight brokers, a key part of the industry.

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Democrats have refused to fund the Dept of Homeland Security which means the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officials are working at reduced capacity.  This is slowing down security times at airports and creating massive delays for U.S. air travelers.  The problem has been worsening day-by-day for well over a week.

President Trump announced today that if Democrats don’t fund DHS/TSA, he will move Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers into TSA positions with the benefit of creating an illegal alien catch net.

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “If the Radical Left Democrats don’t immediately sign an agreement to let our Country, in particular, our Airports, be FREE and SAFE again, I will move our brilliant and patriotic ICE Agents to the Airports where they will do Security like no one has ever seen before, including the immediate arrest of all Illegal Immigrants who have come into our Country, with heavy emphasis on those from Somalia, who have totally destroyed, with the approval of a corrupt Governor, Attorney General, and Congresswoman, Ilhan Omar, the once Great State of Minnesota. I look forward to seeing ICE in action at our Airports. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”  ~ President DONALD J. TRUMP

President Trump then followed up his Truth Social announcement with another emphatic statement emphasizing it.

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The origin of this issue goes back to 2021 and the relaunch of the Build Back Better European green energy program to fight the non-existent climate change problem.  We have been highlighting the consequences within the EU auto sector.

We noted in October of last year, the EU’s mandated fines against auto manufacturers who do not hit their production goals for electric vehicle sales began in 2025.  EU automakers unable to meet the regulatory compliance goal began purchasing carbon credits to avoid stiff EU fines.  Many of those carbon credits were purchased from Chinese EV automakers, who then turned around and started using the extra EU revenue to discount Chinese cars sold in Europe.

At the same time as Chinese autos hit record highs in Europe, EU car sales are flat or declining.  Now, Volkswagen is announcing they lost half their profits in one year and will be cutting 50,000 jobs in the next four years.

(MSM – Europe) – Volkswagen just revealed its operating profit sank like a stone last year, dropping by more than half as tariffs, Chinese competition, and shifting strategies took a serious bite out of the bottom line. And that performance now has the VW Group’s execs reaching for the cost-cutting scissors, including plans to shed 50,000 jobs by the end of the decade.

The German automaker reported an operating profit of €8.9 billion ($10.3 bn at current rates) for 2025. That’s down a hefty 53 percent from the year before and well below what analysts were expecting. Revenue, meanwhile, barely moved, slipping only slightly to around €322 billion ($374 bn). (read more)

This was very predictable. In essence, EU car companies buy Chinese car company carbon credits, to avoid the EU fines.  The Chinese car companies then use the carbon credit revenue to subsidize lower priced Chinese EVs to the European car market, thereby undercutting the European EV car companies.

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The highest court in Panama has nulled the ‘Chinese’ contract for the operation of both entrance ports on the Panama Canal.  The Panamanian government took back control and assigned operations to APM Terminals, a subsidiary of the Danish group A.P. Moller-Maersk.

The state takeover comes after a 14-month long saga begun by President Trump who reasserted American interests in the hemisphere and rejected the concept of allowing China to have strategic control over such vital North American infrastructure.

President Trump did not mince words in December of 2024 when he said, “[The Panama Canal] was not given for the benefit of others, but merely as a token of cooperation with us and Panama,” Trump concluded. “If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, and without question.”  Marco Rubio was then dispatched as an intermediary in Feb 2025.

Then, last month, Panama’s Supreme Court struck down the law approving the concession contract for Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of CK Hutchison (China/Hong Kong). The court ruling also invalidated an extension granted in 2021, stripping the port operations of any current legal standing.  Now, Panama has taken over.

(MSM) – The government of Panama has seized control of two ports on either end of the Panama Canal from a Hong Kong conglomerate following a recent ruling by the country’s Supreme Court.

Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison said on Tuesday that Panama’s government had “made direct physical entry into the terminals at Balboa and Cristobal” and assumed “administrative and operational control” over the two ports on the Panama Canal.

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In an effort to return common sense, practicality and affordability to the American consumer base for automobiles, President Trump announced the elimination of Joe Biden’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for manufactured cars and trucks.

Under the auspices of the “Green New Deal”, the Biden administration mandated ridiculous quotas for EVs and demanded lower power combustible engines, or pay a climate change tax. These CAFE standards resulted in a surcharge for large vehicles, large engine autos and SUVs, and essentially bifurcated the auto consumer into those who could afford to pay for efficiency and stability, and those who could not.

“We’re officially terminating Joe Biden’s ridiculously burdensome, horrible actually, CAFE standards that impose expensive restrictions and all sorts of problems, gave all sorts of problems to automakers,” President Trump announced from the Oval Office. “It put tremendous upward pressure on car prices, combined with the insane electric vehicle mandate. Biden’s burdensome regulations helped cause the price of cars to soar more than 25%,” President Trump said. WATCH:

(Via White House) – DELIVERING A WIN FOR AMERICAN FAMILIES AND AUTOMAKERS: Today, President Donald J. Trump is delivering major relief to American families by resetting the Biden Administration’s costly and unlawful Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.

President Trump is returning CAFE standards to levels that can actually be met with conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles. The Biden Administration standards imposed unrealistic fuel economy targets that effectively resulted in an electric vehicle (EV) mandate.

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