Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called-in to Maria Bartiromo earlier today to discuss the overall financial approach of the Trump administration to the COVID-19 impacts.

Mnuchin has been working closely with House and Senate political leadership to structure the financial flow needed for particular sectors and workers inside the Main St economy.  The target date for legislation directing the financial relief is early next week.

The underlying economy is strong. The treasury response is targeted to those who need short-term relief. Short-term economic indicators are no longer valid.

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…there had to be a point where the value of the Wall St economy surpassed the value of the Main St economy… Part I Here

We now look forward, and consider the question: How would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) if the U.S. stock market was ever forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?

To first answer the “how” question, we must visit the “why” question. Why would the multinational financial underwriters want to reset their valuations?

Obviously, the global financial system does not act altruistically. What would motivate the global wealth valuation authority (various market investment indexes) to want, or need, a reset.

The answer to the “why” question might not be as challenging as it appears.

First, there has been a seismic shift in how the world looks at the economic exploitation of multinational systems, or globalism.  See Bernie Sanders?  See those yellow vests in France?  See what happened with the U.K. Brexit referendum?  See the shrinking EU influence?  See the open/public confrontation and push-back against China? See Trump? All examples are consequences of the rise of economic nationalism.

Secondly, the original Wall Street corporate motive (during decades of mergers and acquisitions) to shift product manufacturing to Southeast Asia (ASEAN nations) was driven by a lower cost of overall business, higher profit margins and greed.

As a direct outcome economic wealth was shifted from the U.S. to ASEAN nations, and particularly China. Low wages, low regulation, cheap operational costs, incentives and subsidies from Asia equals cheap TV’s, sneakers, furniture and durable goods.

Even with high fuel prices and overseas shipping costs, there was a big difference between U.S. and ASEAN manufacturing costs.  As hundreds of U.S. Wall Street multinationals chased profits the rust-belt was created.

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A very big picture discussion requires a considerable baseline.

The stock market is not the U.S. economy; the stock market is an investment instrument that determines valuations of economic activity company by company. The valuation is considerably arbitrary, based on the determinations of the arbiters (investors). This is empirically true.

However, that said, how would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) …if the U.S. stock market was every forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?    Enter “Coronavirus”.

Four years ago CTH first explained a new way to look at the U.S. economic system and how Main Street was/is disconnected from Wall Street.  We presented a metaphor to explain. Before going deeper into the discussion of tomorrow; and at the request of several people who now accept the era of “deglobalization” is upon us,  I first present that prior reference & then will use this as the baseline to describe what could come next.

There is a key phrase at the fulcrum of everything past:

…there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).

What we are going to outline in part II is the possibility what happens when this natural truism is reversed.  The objective is to answer: How, specifically would Wall Street reset its evaluative systems if Main Street once again emerged as the priority?

But first, a baseline revisit is needed.

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National Economic Council (NEC) Director Larry Kudlow held an impromptu press conference to describe what sectors of the U.S. economy may need direct financial assistance to bridge revenue gaps from mandated government policy. The stock market is not the U.S. economy.

Calling this type of financial assistance a “bailout” is not a fair term considering the financial impact was created by government instruction.  Government orders to shut down restaurants creates a financial loss for restaurants who also have bills and payroll obligations to meet.  These types of affected businesses will need immediate assistance.

Airlines, hotels, resorts, private parks, gyms, restaurants and various entertainment companies/industries may also need a direct infusion of cash or deferred tax payment to compensate for financial losses.  Again, these businesses have been impacted by government ordering their closure. Depending on the size of the business, the need for gap funds may be urgent.

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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin holds a brief media availability at the White House to discuss the potential economic impacts from Coronavirus and the direction of the treasury in response.   Strong interview and Good interview.

Mnuchin notes there are some sectors who benefit and some that are negatively impacted. The key is to focus on the average American and ensure any negative impacts to U.S. workers are mitigated. Secretary Mnuchin is very sharp and he’s exactly on point in this interview.

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Speaker Nancy Pelosi is attempting to exploit the coronavirus issue to pass a litany of permanent laws inside what was supposed to be a temporary legislative bill to assist those economically impacted by the coronavirus mitigation efforts.

Two issues are stark: (1) permanent and mandatory paid sick leave; and (2) a massive and permanent increase in medicare spending to benefit health insurance companies.

(Via The Hill) […] “There’s a couple major problems with it. Here’s one glaring problem: Under [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi’s bill, the Social Security Administration will be set up to administer the paid sick leave program. Now this will take more than six months, so it won’t work in time. It will also hamper the administration from putting out Social Security for those who need it right now that are in harm’s way,” he added.

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It should not be a 5-4 split and majority decision, but that just goes to reflect how radical and structurally political the Supreme Court has become.  In an important ruling today the Supreme Court ruled 5 to 4 that illegal aliens can be prosecuted by the states for stealing the identity of U.S. persons on employment eligibility paperwork.  [Direct pdf link]

Stunningly four justices (BREYER, GINSBURG, SOTOMAYOR, and KAGAN) dissented from the majority decision; and instead gave their minority opinion that federally mandated I-9 employment eligibility certifications should not be permitted for use as evidence in cases surrounding identity theft.
According to the dissenting opinion, if your identity or social security number was stolen by an illegal alien; and used to falsify employment eligibility documents; that illegal action is not itself criminal conduct because the documents are not permissible as evidence to show the alien falsified information. An absolutely bizarre position in a nation of laws.
The primary issue surrounds federal laws that state employment affidavits, like an I-9 eligibility declaration, cannot be used to prosecute illegal aliens, unlawfully residing in the U.S.  However, it is simultaneously unlawful under federal law to provide false information on those employment eligibility documents.
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As you review this story keep in the back of your mind that U.S. DC Attorney Jessie Liu has been recently moved to head the Financial Crimes Division of the Treasury Department.
CTH noted last year when John Fry, an intelligence analyst with the IRS’s law enforcement arm, was arrested that something more was happening in the background of his case and the DOJ case against Natalie Sours-Edwards.   Today Ms. Sours-Edwards pleads guilty to downloading & distributing the financial records of people connected to the Trump orbit.
You might remember back in May 2018 when sketchy porn lawyer Michael Avenetti was releasing U.S. Treasury notifications on Michael Cohen received from an unknown source within the Treasury Department [See Here].  You might also remember when New Yorker’s Ronan Farrow wrote a sympathetic article after talking to the leaking treasury official [See Here].  As a result the Treasury Inspector General began an investigation.

(VIA DOJ) Natalie Mayflower Sours Edwards Illegally Repeatedly Transmitted SARs and Other Sensitive Government Information To A Reporter Resulting In Approximately 12 News Articles Over 1-Year Period.
Ms. Sours-Edwards, a former senior adviser at the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (“FinCEN”), pled guilty today to conspiring to unlawfully disclose Suspicious Activity Reports (“SARs”).
Beginning in approximately October 2017, and lasting until her arrest in October 2018, EDWARDS agreed to and did unlawfully disclose numerous SARs to a reporter (“Reporter-1”), the substance of which were published over the course of approximately 12 articles by a news organization for which Reporter-1 worked (“News Organization-1”).

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Any headline that uses the phrase “France Warns” immediately requires a background review to understand the big picture driving French fears.
Just like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau thinking he could outwit President Trump’s policies on NAFTA trade (he failed), Trudeau’s bestie, French President Emmanuel Macron, has stupidly exhibited similar shortsightedness.  In the case of both leaders their weasel moves have put their nations’ into a precarious economic position.
To consider the future for France, it would be wise to remember last year when President Trump arrived to attend the G-7 in Biarritz, France, President Macron was waiting at the Hotel du Palais to ambush Trump for an unscheduled luncheon (pictured below):

This was just one example in a series of scripted weasel-moves played by Macron in an attempt to pontificate his importance for the international audience.  Another example from the same event was Macron inviting the Iranian foreign Minister to the G7 for sideline meetings unrelated to the topics being discussed in Biarritz.
In an effort to create leverage against the U.S. position, President Macron never discussed his Iranian invitation -in advance- with the U.S. delegation.  It did not go over well.
The EU, and specifically France, have a dependence on foreign energy sources as a result of their ridiculous climate policies and narrow thinking.  In essence the EU wants to do business and receive oil from Iran; however, U.S. sanctions against Iran forbid those business deals.  Ergo Macron attempted to inject influence and position his interests.
As stated, the ambush approach did not go well, but POTUS played it cool.
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President Trump is meeting with the wolverines to discuss the current status of terms for a “Phase One” U.S-China trade deal.  Additionally POTUS tweeted a deal was close:

As we have noted the general objective from President Trump on a “Phase One” deal is a $50 billion agriculture purchase from China that would allow the U.S. to discontinue the supplemental bridge payments to farmers using tariff income.  Details of this possible deal are unknown, but look for a delay in the next round of the December 15th tariffs to secure the Ag purchase.   President Trump will want a written purchase contract.
The financial pundits, most beholden to the needs of the Wall Street multinationals, are overestimating the scale and scope of issues likely resolved within “phase one”.   There is not likely to be resolution to the bigger issues in the U.S-China trade conflict.

Bloomberg reported: “U.S. negotiators offered to reduce tariffs on about $375 billion in Chinese goods by 50% across the board and suspend tariffs on $160 billion in goods scheduled to go into effect on Sunday.”

I would advise to take the Bloomberg report with a grain of salt; their Wall Street-centric voice generally tries to push narrative negotiations to the benefit of multinationals.
Instead, the Trump big picture common sense business approach is: the value of tariff reduction will be directly related to the value of a WRITTEN CONTRACT China purchase.
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