(Part I) – Coronavirus as a Global Economic Reset…

A very big picture discussion requires a considerable baseline.

The stock market is not the U.S. economy; the stock market is an investment instrument that determines valuations of economic activity company by company. The valuation is considerably arbitrary, based on the determinations of the arbiters (investors). This is empirically true.

However, that said, how would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) …if the U.S. stock market was every forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?    Enter “Coronavirus”.

Four years ago CTH first explained a new way to look at the U.S. economic system and how Main Street was/is disconnected from Wall Street.  We presented a metaphor to explain. Before going deeper into the discussion of tomorrow; and at the request of several people who now accept the era of “deglobalization” is upon us,  I first present that prior reference & then will use this as the baseline to describe what could come next.

There is a key phrase at the fulcrum of everything past:

…there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).

What we are going to outline in part II is the possibility what happens when this natural truism is reversed.  The objective is to answer: How, specifically would Wall Street reset its evaluative systems if Main Street once again emerged as the priority?

But first, a baseline revisit is needed.

2015/2016 – Traditional economic principles have revolved around the Macro and Micro with interventionist influences driven by GDP (Gross Domestic Product, or total economic output), interest rates, inflation rates and federally controlled monetary policy designed to steer the broad economic outcomes.

Additionally, in large measure, the various data points which underline Macro principles are two dimensional. As the X-Axis goes thus, the Y-Axis responds accordingly… and so it goes…. and so it has historically gone.

trump convention 2

Traditional monetary policy has centered upon a belief of cause and effect: (ex.1) If inflation grows, it can be reduced by rising interest rates. Or, (ex.2) as GDP shrinks, it too can be affected by decreases in interest rates to stimulate investment/production etc.

In short, FEDeral intervention.

However, against the backdrop of economic Globalism -vs- economic Americanism, CTH is noting the two dimensional economic approach is no longer a relevant model. There is another economic dimension, a third dimension. An undiscovered depth or distance between the “X” and the “Y”.

I believe it is critical to understand this new dimension in order to understand Trump economic principles, and the subsequent “America-First” economy he’s building.

As the distance between the X and Y increases over time, the affect detaches – slowly and almost invisibly. I believe understanding this hidden distance perspective will reconcile many of the current economic contractions. I also predict this third dimension will soon be discovered and will be extremely consequential in the coming decade.

To understand the basic theory, allow me to introduce a visual image to assist comprehension. Think about the two economies, Wall Street (paper or false economy) and Main Street (real or traditional economy) as two parallel roads or tracks. Think of Wall Street as one train engine and Main Street as another.

The Metaphor – Several decades ago, 1980-ish, our two economic engines started out in South Florida with the Wall Street economy on I-95 the East Coast, and the Main Street economy on I-75 the West Coast. The distance between them less than 100 miles.

As each economy heads North, over time the distance between them grows. As they cross the Florida State line Wall Street’s engine (I-95) is now 200 miles from Main Street’s engine (traveling I-75).

As we have discussed – the legislative outcomes, along with the monetary policy therein, follows the economic engine carrying the greatest political influence. Our historic result is monetary policy followed the Wall Street engine.

a17b2-hip-replacement-recall-bribery[…] there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).

Investments, and the bets therein, needed to expand outside of the USA. hence, global(ist) investing.

However, a second more consequential aspect happened simultaneously. The politicians became more valuable to the Wall Street team than the Main Street team; and Wall Street had deeper pockets because their economy was now larger.

As a consequence Wall Street started funding political candidates and asking for legislation that benefited their interests.

When Main Street was purchasing the legislative influence the outcomes were beneficial to Main Street, and by direct attachment those outcomes also benefited the average American inside the real economy.

When Wall Street began purchasing the legislative influence, the outcomes therein became beneficial to Wall Street. Those benefits are detached from improving the livelihoods of main street Americans because the benefits are “global” needs. Global financial interests, investment interests, are now the primary filter through which the DC legislative outcomes are considered.

There is a natural disconnect. (more)

Here is an example of the resulting impact as felt by consumers:

economy-1

♦ TWO ECONOMIES – Time continues to pass as each economic engine heads North.

Economic Globalism expands. Wall Street’s false (paper) economy becomes the far greater economy. Federal monetary policy follows and fuels the larger economy. (Note: size is determined by value, not by production.) In exchange for policy the Wall Street benefactors pay back the politicians.

Economic Nationalism shrinks. Main Street’s real (traditional) economy shrinks. Domestic manufacturing drops. Jobs are off-shored. Main Street companies try to offset the shrinking economy with increased productivity (their limited fuel). Wages stagnate.

Now it’s 1990 – The Wall Street economic engine (traveling I-95) reaches Northern North Carolina. However, it’s now 500 miles away from Main Street’s engine (traveling I-75). The Appalachian range is the geographic wedge creating the natural divide (a metaphor for ‘trickle down’).

By the time the decade of 2000 arrives – Wall Street’s well fueled engine, and the accompanying DC legislative attention, influence and monetary policy, has reached Philadelphia.

However, Main Street’s engine is in Ohio (they’re now 700 miles apart) and almost out of fuel; there simply is no more productivity to squeeze.  Technological gains, used as fuel for productivity, start to level-off. The engine starts to slow.

From that moment in time, and from that geographic location, all forward travel is now only going to push the two economies further apart. I-95 now heads North East, and I-75 heads due North through Michigan. The distance between these engines is going to grow much more significantly now with each passing mile/month….

However, and this is a key reference point, if you are judging their advancing progress from a globalist vessel (filled with traditional academic economists) in the mid-Atlantic, both economies (both engines) would seem to be essentially in the same place based on their latitude.

From a two-dimensional linear perspective you cannot tell the distance between them.

It is within this distance between the two economies, which grew over time, where a new economic dimension has been created and is not getting attention. It is critical to understand the detachment.

Within this three dimensional detachment you understand why Near-Zero interest rates no longer drive an expansion of the GDP. The Main Street economic engine is just too far away to gain any substantive benefit.

Despite their domestic origin in NY/DC, traditional monetary policies (over time) have focused exclusively on the Wall Street, Globalist economy. The Wall Street Economic engine was simply seen as the only economy that would survive. The Main Street engine was viewed by DC, and those who assemble the legislative priorities therein, as a dying engine, lacking fuel, and destined to be service driven only….

Within the new 3rd economic dimension, the distance between Wall Street and Main Street economic engines, you will find the data to reconcile years of odd economic detachment.

brexit-letter-1

Here’s where it gets really interesting. Understanding the distance between the real Main Street economic engine and the false Wall Street economic engine will help all of us to understand the scope of an upcoming economic lag; which, rather remarkably I would add, is a very interesting dynamic.

Think about these engines doing a turn about and beginning a rapid reverse. GDP can, and in my opinion, will, expand quickly. However, any interest rate hikes (monetary  policy) intended to cool down that expansion -fearful of inflation- will take a long time to traverse the divide.

Additionally, inflation on durable goods will be insignificant – even as international trade agreements are renegotiated, and/or as tariffs are applied. Why? Simply because the originating nations of those products are going to go through the same type of economic detachment described above.

Those global manufacturing economies will first respond to any increases in export costs (tariffs etc.), by driving their own productivity higher as an initial offset, in the same manner American workers went through in the past three decades. The manufacturing enterprise and the financial sector remain focused on the pricing because the consumer is the most important variable. Ultimately prices are determined by wages.

♦ Inflation on imported durable goods sold in America, while necessary, will ultimately be minimal during this initial period; and expand more significantly as time progresses and off-shored manufacturing finds less and less ways to be productive. Over time, durable good prices will increase – but it will come much later.

♦ Inflation on domestic consumable goods ‘may‘ indeed rise at a faster pace. However, it can be expected that U.S. wage rates will respond faster, naturally faster, than any monetary policy because inflation on fast-turn consumable goods become re-coupled to the ability of wage rates to afford them.

The monetary and fiscal policy impact lag, caused by the distance between federal monetary action and the domestic Main Street economy, will now work in our favor. That is, in favor of the middle-class.

Within the aforementioned distance between “X” and “Y”, a result of three decades traveled by two divergent economic engines, is our new economic dimension….

Trump thumbs up

We support reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which prohibits commercial banks from engaging in high-risk investment,” said the platform released by the Republican National Committee. (link)

/snip/

Notice how each of the most critical parts of that predictive outline from four years ago essentially became our reality as President Trump applied his ‘America-First’ agenda.

Now, here’s where it is going to get interesting again as we look forward another four years. 

In part II we will answer: How, specifically would Wall Street reset it’s evaluatory systems if Main Street once again emerged as the priority?… and I will outline how COVID-19 can be the spark to reset that evaluation system.

This entry was posted in ASEAN, Auto Sector, Bailouts, Big Government, Budget, Canada, China, Coronavirus, Decepticons, Deep State, Donald Trump, Economy, Election 2020, European Union, History, Hong Kong, India, Legislation, NAFTA, President Trump, Taxes, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA, USMCA. Bookmark the permalink.

252 Responses to (Part I) – Coronavirus as a Global Economic Reset…

  1. Jason Ross says:

    So I imagine DEM governors/mayors/talking heads will thump their chests this autumn about the heroic sacrifices America made to shutter all commerce and self-quarantine for three solid months, and how these policies alone are what prevented catastrophe. Not Trump’s response nor the fact it was overblown hype to begin with.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. thedoc00 says:

    The most fascinating aspect of SD’s article is the bar graph because it explains more than he covers in his article.

    Every single item that has a negative cost increase (below the line) moved off shore for the most part or has very high off-shore physical content.

    Every single item that increased in cost (above the line) contributes zero to GDP but receives major government subsidies (70%+ of the Federal Budget) because these are the direct give-away, SJW, free stuff used to buy votes. Then the politicians have the nerve to say they are filling the wage gap they created with the money they “invest”.

    This chart amplifies SD’s point about the 3rd Dimension of Politicians cooperating with Wall Street.

    Liked by 10 people

  3. X XYZ says:

    I probably shouldn’t say this but I will. If I suddenly disappear from this site and am never heard from again, you will know why. But I doubt that will happen here.

    This latest article made it obvious. There is more than one Sundance behind the curtain here.

    Who is “Sundance”? Is “he” one person, acting alone? Considering everything that is being provided to us to educate us here on this site, there are obviously many more people involved in this enterprise, constantly thinking and writing articles and providing immediate news we are reading for our benefit. That is a good thing.

    Does Trump act alone? Did Lincoln write the Gettysburg Address all by himself? Maybe so, back then, so long ago. Nowadays, does any member of Congress act alone when they propose legislation? Do they write it themselves? Or do they have a team of intern lawyers behind them that supports and does the actual work of writing the bill or questioning for them? (Just look at any televised congressional hearing to see who is sitting behind the speaking politician, having prepared the actual work.)

    Is this a “bad” thing. No. Am I trying to expose and defame “Sundance”? No, I’m not. Quite to the contrary.

    If you want to believe that Sundance is one man, acting alone and doing everything himself, that’s OK. Believe what you will.

    Now it’s time to quote the words of the cleverest woman in America. In some ways she was.
    “At this point… WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE?”

    Liked by 1 person

    • nimrodman says:

      This latest article made it obvious. There is more than one Sundance behind the curtain here.

      OK, I’ll bite

      What is it about this “latest article” – exactly – that makes this “obvious”?

      Liked by 1 person

      • X XYZ says:

        Diversity of astute analysis, high quality of content and information, and the way in which it is presented. The writing style observed is not always the same in every presentation.

        It would be virtually impossible for any one, singular person to present such highly detailed, proofread and varied content EVERY day, 24/7, consistently, with never any breaks. That’s admirable, but it is also noticeable. It’s also superhuman – it’s impossible to accomplish that output of production relentlessly, every day, without any assistance or teamwork. It is also obvious that this site has a caring and judicious administration reviewing our submissions and comments as we post them. This is a very well run site.

        Not that I’m complaining. I’m not. Everyone here should appreciate this site and enjoy it.

        If there is more than one “Sundance”, so be it. It doesn’t matter how many Sundances might be ‘behind the curtain’. Love ’em all.

        “I want you to be Andrew Breitbart”. That’s the whole point.
        That’s wonderful! There can be many Sundances, too. You too can aspire to be Breitbart or Sundance. (I’m sure Sundance would approve…)

        Liked by 1 person

    • Gerkmonster says:

      Most of the stuff his him repeating foundational stuff and then building on top of that. Doesn’t create an enormous amount of work. A highly intelligent person can pull this off quite well. It ain’t rocket science.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Mendy Mendelbaum says:

        Its the ability to take rocket science put it into simple concepts and then write about it coherently and with clarity. As a professional writer this is very hard to do. Its harder than rocket science. And if you dont believe me try it and then get back to me.

        Liked by 1 person

    • Uncle Al says:

      Do all of them have the same idiosyncratic way of using the adverb “therein”? Really?

      Liked by 1 person

    • JIM COMEY IS A WEASEL_DOUG says:

      Put another way, who cares?

      Like

    • samwise163 says:

      You will get to meet Sundance when you get to heaven. I think God has Sundance in the top 5 at least.

      Like

      • X XYZ says:

        I don’t know what heaven is. But I do believe in God. I don’t believe that God cares much about politics. But I’m sure that God knows the difference between moral character and immoral character. (Politics is mostly in the latter category.)

        If I ever do get to meet Sundance, I’m sure we’d get along just fine.

        Like

    • lftpm says:

      Congressmen used to author bills. Nowadays, 99% of legislation is authored by lobbyists, who pass their bills to congress critters, along with legislation-“enabling” campaign “contributions”.

      Liked by 1 person

      • X XYZ says:

        The real congress critters are the intern lawyers who want a future career in politics. They are those you see by the dozen on camera, sitting behind the congressman or senator who is droning on during congressional hearings. They draft the legislation, and cross all the T’s and dot the I’s to prepare the legal terms of the bill and present it. Then “we have to pass it, to find out what is in it.”

        Like

  4. Todd says:

    Why isn’t the Big Old Media talking about this?

    22,000 Americans have died from the seasonal flu – NOT Caronoavirus.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/17/delayed-weekly-flu-report-death-toll-22000-including-144-children/

    For the first time since the week ending February 29, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released its Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report, which shows that the death toll from the seasonal flu has reached 22,000, including 144 children.

    Liked by 4 people

  5. mtk says:

    Fortunately, and as equally as unfortunately( as will be explained later), I shorted the market in the only way I could.
    So now, I am fushed with this zero sum cash, meaning i pulled my valuation position based assets from the market, and i am locked i to a repayment schedule.

    Essentially I shorted the market by cashing out my 401 position to the maximum by taking a loan back in 2018.

    So here is my problem, i want my repayment dollars to go into main street MAGA capital investment, but the only finical vehicle I have is the multual fund portfolios managed by 401k’s that are still geared heavily towards the multi-national globalist investment model.

    At a basic minimum, I am thinking that the private sector capital heavyweights must start to redirect their capitalist positions to retool and realigning their skilled work force towards meeting domestic demands, aka main street

    I am thinking there an is upside on GE, Ford and Boeing for exame as their idle work force moves to meeting Govt contracts and private sector demands. This basis is built on historical private sector relationships seizing on capital opportunity to direct their skilled work force to manufacture goods outside their traditional market.
    It is the age old understanding of demands(social needs) meeting opportunity(capital ability). The stuff that major capital movers and shakers live for as an opportunity to seize the day. To which I will add, this skilled work force has weathered the globalist storm for the last three decades, so naturally they have been tested and conditioned to be flexible just to remain viable in this global market place. In essence, “One day they are tasked to manufacture brake lines, the next day they are asked to manifacture something else.”
    The only question these skilled workers will ask is, “What capital commitment is being brought to bear.”
    Yes the stuff of, “Smoke filled back rooms of deal making that leads to realistic plans.” And, importantly the will of Capitalist Stakeholders saying they won’t go quitely into the night”

    That is what the World is up against, American corporations backing Main Street economic activities out of sheared of self interest.

    I would not hold my breath on the opposition to MAGA winning. They are the buggy whip of our times

    Liked by 1 person

  6. jx says:

    I think President Trump has been given dubious advice. He needs to take care not to go full-blown Bernie, which he is very close to doing. And then he has no way out but to go further in.

    I understand the Main St./Wall St. analysis, I agree with it. That doesn’t include destroying small businesses and then playing hero to “bail out” what has been destroyed.

    Quite frankly, until I see mass deaths (dogs & cats living together, etc.) it’s all bullshit. You may think that hard-hearted, I think it’s reality because: the numbers don’t support the government’s actions. Until then, it’s bullshit. The only caveat is if it really is something that escaped from a lab. If that’s the case they should tell us. Absent that the virus isn’t the problem, the government is the problem. I think the President needs to be careful he doesn’t get stampeded with baloney from a bunch of fanatics spouting exaggerated forecasts.

    Liked by 4 people

    • jx says:

      Fauci said, “I like it when people are thinking, I’m overreacting, because that means we’re doing it just right.”

      That’s not a rational statement. Intentionally inducing mass panic is not something a sane person does.

      Liked by 8 people

      • icthematrix says:

        Fauci is part of the deceptors within this crisis. His plan to flatten the curve really extends the virus outbreak for many months, which may keep hospitals from being slammed but destroys our economy in the process. Also destroys our President.

        Liked by 5 people

        • not2worryluv says:

          I don’t at all agree that it destroys our President.
          The daily news conferences are showing a President that is involved, making bold decisions to protect our citizens, connecting with those on the front lines and thinking outside the box. It gives every American the opportunity to see President Trump at his best. He hold press conferences where he handles the most difficult and the most outrageous questions without missing a beat. He speaks the language of the people, not a word salad that you leave wondering what the heck did that exactly mean.
          Putting Vice President Pence in charge of this situation has brought him to the forefront and demonstrates he chose a VP that is competent, hard working and effective.
          I love our President and I am convinced that the more people that see our President first hand, those naysayers, will better understand why we voted for President Trump.
          He is a natural leader and my opinion is that he will be our President next year and our Country will continue to prosper, grow and be the Country where we will all be proud to say, Yes, I am an American!

          Liked by 3 people

    • Miya says:

      The only caveat is if it really is something that escaped from a lab.

      You know, I’m really beginning to wonder. The reaction we’ve seen to this is not the reaction we get to “just the flu.”

      Liked by 4 people

      • nimrodman says:

        And the Administration’s knowledge of such a thing would not likely be revealed until after this infection-spread crisis is in the rear-view mirror – I’d speculate.

        Liked by 5 people

      • trapper says:

        I don’t for a second believe this was just a jumper from a wet market. Neither did China apparently. Bad unknown virus, of a type studied and modified in the lab at Wuhan, blowing through the population of Wuhan. They sampled it, asked the virologists at the lab to look at it, and when they saw it all hell broke loose. You don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to figure out what happened. “OH SHIT! THAT’S OURS!”

        Liked by 3 people

        • captain Nonno says:

          I agree. We aren’t being told everything about this virus, it’s creation, its transmission, or any potential intent. Trillions at stake. If we do this self quarantine right, enough will be known to allow control and treatment. It seems we’re close already. So 🙏 word comes quickly to return to normal behavior.

          Liked by 2 people

    • Linda K. says:

      I think, though I don’t know. that Trump is one guy who will turn this crisis into what he wants it to be for America. The global communist cabal is in no way ahead of Trump, that is my suspicion. Trump will realign everyone’s perspective and the economy will become MAGA, now that we can all see the advantages of corporate America bringing business home, the danger of China expanding, the value of a strong border. Trump is breaking the globalists, this is a world wide problem and America will recover when the flu has passed and Main Street will be roaring and the rest of the world will be…taking care of themselves.

      Liked by 1 person

    • nimrodman says:

      JX said “I think President Trump has been given dubious advice.”

      To my reading, he’s been convinced by his experts that societal “lockdown” is the only way to avoid an out-of-control pandemic

      Most everything else the past week or 2 follows from that

      Liked by 2 people

      • highlander says:

        See Dr. John Campbell’s (many,daily ) posts on YouTube….PHD/40 yrs in Nursing & teaching/knows about Viruses, the body, immune response, what the uptick in the figures are telling us…. People flocking to his contributions from all over the world. For good reason

        Like

      • lftpm says:

        They should have “reverse quarantined” the elderly and other people with serious chronic illnesses, while letting normal life go on for everyone else. If you are under 65 and in good health, you will contract something ranging from a common cold to a flu-like illness. The latter can include pneumonia, even respiratory failure, just like influenza.

        Had we let life go on normally for most people, we would have seen a rapid epidemic occur, with also rapid subsidence. Instead of the pan-epidemic subsiding in May, it may be August.

        On the good news front, chloroquine shows promise as an antiviral. It modifies the angiotensin converting enzyme II receptor on cells, which may be the virus’s attachment target, and it increases intracellular pH, which may obstruct viral replication.

        Liked by 1 person

  7. kleen says:

    FYI, if you encounter an imbecile or SJW calling Trump racist for using the term Chinese Virus, well China or Chinese is NOT a race. It’s a nationality, country. NOT A RACE

    CHINA IS A COUNTRY.

    Liked by 10 people

    • John Bosley says:

      Arguing with that type of person is a zero sum game.
      Best to walk away with your sanity intact.
      If it is someone you love then let them learn the hard way, tough love and the school of Hard Knocks.

      Liked by 2 people

    • lftpm says:

      Naming diseases after their geographic-discovery and apparent-origination locations is standard fare.
      Lyme (CT) disease, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, (San Joaquin) Valley Fever, Rift Valley Fever, Nor(walk)ovirus, Zika, Ebola, West Nile, Hong Kong Flu (1969), Minamata disease, et al.

      “Spanish flu” was apparently so-named because Spain was not a WWI belligerent,and openly reported its flu cases, while the combatant nations covered up theirs to avoid disheartening their populations. This led to the misimpression that Spain was the origin of the outbreak.

      Liked by 1 person

  8. Lucille says:

    Did China Panic the World and Steal Our Wealth with a Common Cold?
    By Anthony J. Ciani – March 16, 2020

    If COVID-19 (scientifically known as SARS-CoV-2) had started in Singapore or Taiwan, it would have traveled the world, infected billions of people, killed millions, and there wouldn’t have been a single peep about it. “But it kills people,” you cry. That is what cold and flu do, especially to the elderly and those lacking basic medicines. The world is panicking over a virus that causes mild colds in the vast majority of cases. Amid the panic, China is profiting as it buys up stocks at bargain-basement prices. Instead of engineering a pandemic, did China engineer pandemonium?

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/did_china_panic_the_world_and_steal_our_wealth_with_a_common_cold.html

    Liked by 4 people

    • rayvandune says:

      If they did, they had inside help. The Democrat Party and the Media.

      Liked by 7 people

      • X XYZ says:

        George Soros has no experience in this field of financial manipulation. Socialist Soros, who was clever enough to break the bank of England and become filthy rich from that manoeuvre couldn’t possibly have a hand in stoking this up, could he? Neither could little Mikey Bloomberg, another uber-wealthy fraud, who is a socialist at heart. Also the Chinese government couldn’t possibly know anything about currency manipulation. They are as naive as communist babes in the capitalist woods, right?

        Pay no attention to the men behind the curtain…

        Liked by 6 people

    • dallasdan says:

      Every time a stock is sold for a lower price, someone is buying it. I assure you the mega-traders are making huge sums when the market flails up or down from day-to-day. Many more investors understand this today than they did prior to 2008. The stock market is a casino, and the “big cigars” always win because they can manipulate the results.

      Liked by 3 people

      • lftpm says:

        Short selling self-terminates. You borrow stock. You sell it at the market price and pocket the money. You then wait for the price to drop, buy the stock back, and return it to the original owner.
        But in an extended falling market, finding buyers for your borrowed stock gets increasingly difficult, as buyers don’t want to be on the hook if the market stabilizes, and they lose money. (You have to pay a fee to borrow the stock.)

        Liked by 2 people

  9. JeffRay says:

    I’m not sure I understand the entire article – it is a good one. But, I do understand that resistance to bringing all medical manufacturing back to domestic soil has been eliminated using the war act. Was it intentional or just good timing?

    Liked by 1 person

    • Issy says:

      I would just call it a fortuitous result coming out of a bad situation. I would like for the U.S. to not be dependent on China for anything essential. Trade, buy crap products from them if you want to, but essentials must be produced here.

      Like

  10. Doug Amos says:

    We came to this dance with President Trump and we are going to go home with him.

    Liked by 7 people

  11. George Beier says:

    Great read and I look forward to the other half.

    Like

  12. Fools Gold says:

    Looking forward to your future articles. Wish there was way for you or somebody on the team to include CATIA models (3D) over time, it might be more clear but I’m tracking since your 1st article of this topic. Right timing for it too! 👍

    Like

  13. The Deplorable Java Witch says:

    Sundance, words cannot express my gratitude towards you and this site. The way you explain and lay things out… If you aren’t an economics instructor, you ought to be. Thank you so much for these incredible breakdowns that you share so freely to help some of us understand the bigger picture of the economic factors affecting us all right now.
    Hugs and love to you all💕🙏☕

    Liked by 1 person

  14. The Boss says:

    Part 2 just might be the primer on The Big Ugly.
    IMHO, it’s pretty ugly out there right now.
    But probably uglier in other places than the US.

    Like

  15. Skidroe says:

    Sundance , you are driving me crazy. WHERE IS PART 2? I feel like a little kid waiting for Christmas. Are we there yet?

    Like

  16. Patience says:

    WINNING !!!!!!!!
    Tom Cotton JUST talked with Hannity about making ~>our own drugs ~>in the USA!!!!!!

    Liked by 3 people

  17. Jase says:

    However big the challenge is for the USA, don’t feel too disheartened; you still have a broad based manufacturing sector.
    Australia makes virtually nothing at all: not cars, not clothes, not even widgets – apart from the odd teeny weeny niche market stuff, but they are little more than cottage industry.
    We have also sold, or are in the process of selling, huge swathes of our best dairy and agriculture sector to the Chinese.
    You are on the brink, but can still pull back. We are over the edge and praying that our Chinese made parachute opens.
    Disclaimer: A Tasmanian-based company does make excellent sea-going hydrofoil vessels, including some for the US navy, I think.

    Liked by 2 people

  18. rayvandune says:

    When any unit of a Roman legion failed to follow orders, “decimation” was called for. Contrary to modern usage, “decimation” was not the near-destruction of a unit, it was the reduction of the unit by exactly 1/10. Every unit of ten men among the guilty units was ordered to reduce itself by one man – by killing him. Popularity was important back then!

    I submit that it will soon become evident that in the case of the Corona-virus outbreak, the media not only failed to obey the sacred trust they claim to hold – to give the truth to the people, but actually mutinied against those orders, and in effect took up arms against those they claim to protect, for their own purposes. Now I want to see some nominees!

    Putting them to the sword is too messy and legally complex… I just want to see the media “winners” fired and banned from employment in any position of public trust. I want to see them living under a bridge in a cardboard box, cold, hungry and afraid, just like they damn near condemned us to be!

    In a more modern military parlance, “I. WANT. SOME. BUTTS!”

    Liked by 3 people

  19. Richie says:

    Makes sense but the deep state in collusion with the fake news globalist media and their foreign government coup conspirators are working overtime to hide the truth. This new Wuhanian biolab manufactured and dispersed flue strain achieved the desired results.

    China Expert Gordan Chang: China Is Attacking US Dollar and Already Blaming US for Global Depression

    Liked by 2 people

    • Issy says:

      Yes, with eyes wide open and hands out for personal gain, the politicians and corporate giants sold America out to the Chinese. You would think the game would be up, but some are still trying to do it. ex Lindsey Graham.

      Like

  20. Magabear says:

    So Trace Gallagher on Fox was comparing the number of people presumed to have the Wuhan virus today with the number two weeks ago and of course many more people have tested positive for it in that time span. But if we are dramatically increasing the number of people being tested, then of course more positive results will follow. But what’s the negative vs positive test results numbers?

    The media seems very invested in creating panic and leaving out context that contradicts that narrative.

    Liked by 4 people

    • nimrodman says:

      “But if we are dramatically increasing the number of people being tested …”

      Exactly
      It’s only about a week that testing has been widely available

      Two weeks ago there was endless gnashing of teeth that not enough tests were availalble, almost nobody could get tested, yada yada

      The one saving grace in his presentation that I took away is that the US curve is (as yet) much flatter than Italy or whatever other curve he had up there for comparison that was headed “not true north but close to it” as he put it

      Liked by 1 person

    • not2worryluv says:

      Interesting the MSM is using words like twice, three times as many. Why can they say there were 30 deaths of elderly people last week and 30 deaths of elderly people who shared quarters with the previous 30 so that equals 60 deaths as of today in America?
      It’s panic mode speak for so called “journalists”
      Let’s count they ways they have worked to destroy President Trump – the FISA warrants, the Billy Bush Tape, the Russians, the Ukrainians, Hunter Biden graft, Impeachment, and now the Chinese Virus!
      I believe Americans are tired of the DEMS and the MSM blaming President Trump. I believe the American People are rallying for Trump and our Country and the MSM media and the DEMS are seeing that right before they eyes….

      Liked by 2 people

  21. trapper says:

    Sundance, excellent analysis, as always. REALLY looking forward to part 2.

    We are watching play out the post I was working on a few months ago, the mere mention of which nearly got me moderated right off this site. I was trying to tease out what the plan was for decoupling from China, what the trigger would be, and there were some hints floating around. The mere suggestion that there might be a plan that no one was going to like was not well received. All out the window at this point.

    Chinese incompetence and the initial media hysteria handed this to PDJT with a bow around it and a musical greeting card. I expect his plan was to decouple more gradually, more orderly, and with less pain and shock, but he was pretty much forced to go down this path. So OK, re-break the bone it is.

    The Chinese nationalized 3M plants in China and threatened to withhold meds from us. They are not going to like our counter move. And my reply to them on all of it is the Mickey Mouse hand salute. In the end, I don’t see how the communist regime in China survives (not the virus but our response to it) except as a remnant 20th Century anachronism on the model of Cuba, presiding over a destitute and irrelevant country.

    Oh, and by the way, watching democrat governors and mayors DEMAND that the federal government push decisions and control down to state and municipal governments, because they know better than Washington what the needs are in, say, New York and Seattle, and watching Trump immediately do it, just cracks me up. Obama and his one-world-government globalist crew must be tearing their hair out.

    Trump Landslide 2020

    Liked by 3 people

  22. cherokeepeople says:

    rricks article points it out.while we sit and literally do nothing the chinese are back into production and according to that article 35% or more then normal.they released that virus knowing full well we would try like hell to limit the loss of our citizens more then we cared about pretty much anything else.they on the other hand could care less if they lost 100,000 people to get our ecomony shut down.now they go on the offensive

    Like

  23. ewreck1967 says:

    We have been sold out in every way, shape, and form by our own elected officials. Blaming China is being in denial about the last 50 years. Explain to me the purpose of The Cold War again. A nation of “consumers”.

    Liked by 1 person

  24. Big Jake says:

    You assume Trump wins in November. There are plenty of morons out there who will not vote for him. This could derail quickly.

    Expect the media to gin up a Wuhan Virus scare in October to crater Trump right before the election.

    Liked by 1 person

    • hagarthorrible says:

      The Bolsheviks have been saying for 3 years that they would pay any price to get rid of Trump; they found the right price…the wellbeing of America’s economic and cultural future!

      Liked by 4 people

    • hagarthorrible says:

      The Bolsheviks have been saying for 3 years that they would pay any price to get rid of Trump; they found the right price…the wellbeing of America’s economic and cultural future!

      Like

  25. montanamel says:

    In all the comments, only 2 mentions of that 800 lb monkey in the room….
    In fact, in the write-up above, it’s referred to as “distance between” the two economies…miles.
    Try using the correct name: BANKS…..
    What makes them double bad is their penchant to play all sorts of “games of chance”
    USING “other folks” money….of course…. ie: hat tip to the mention of Derivatives et al…

    BUT – the real reason for all this mess is “Fractional Banking”, or, money growing….

    I fully concur with SD about the division of “Main Street” vs “Wall Street”, but, what connects these two is “Banker’s Street”… And, then, you find that many “streets” are mixed in with the bankers, ie: they “act” like each other…

    The “reset” or “jubalee” will have to happen….without it, there can be no recovery since the “old days” will follow as notes due in the future…. No recovery and we are back to maybe 1913 at best…. There are so many crooks out there today, everyone has their hands in “other folks” pockets and 1/2 don’t even know it… Check the commodities markets, they are controlled too… Think about how “stable” the price of gold and silver has been….and, how hard all the bankers and MSM fight to bad-mouth it…(Real Money/Value)… Right now, there is a bank in NY,NY that has over 50 mil ounces of Silver in it’s basement….the Hunt brothers nearly went to JAIL for having less than 10% of that amount — yet, they don’t get busted or go to jail for their “hand on the scale” daily… Check the “Premiums” now being charged for spot delivery of REAL METAL, vs paper promises sold by every bank/brokerage… YES – bring back the Glass-Seagal Act (sorry if I misspelled that…)

    IF you want to dive deeper into this sea of skum and thieves….check out Armstrong Economics and Marty’s blog… he has not missed one of these inflection points yet…nor, has it computer.

    I, too, wait for part 2 …. Great stuff SD….pass the popcorn…

    Liked by 1 person

    • John Bosley says:

      J P Morgan better not ask for a bailout and then used as bonuses to the big wigs.
      They can use all that shiny to bail their sorry butts out.

      Like

  26. KaweahKid says:

    I ended my career in academe, teaching and researching public policy, via early retirement due to a rapid-onset autoimmune disease–a catastrophe to be sure–but, in retrospect, I think it was timely. I had been chafing at the leftist/globalist agenda for many years. My colleagues at the time were touting the old saw of “comparative advantage”…when precisely that laid bare the extreme shortcomings of the globalist paradigm/scheme that threatens the fundamental units of human existence: Nation, locality, and family. 2×2 tables don’t reveal the profound inadequacy of comparative advantage’s ability to address the darker corners of humanity’s experience with power: Tyranny, systemic bias, unequal application of law and the rule of law, and other forms of corruption.

    That PDJT came along and disrupted globalism, and to the extent that he and his loyalists have succeeded in that agenda–especially in our response to Covid-19–is proof for me that there is a loving and involved God, and that it’s still daytime in human history. How much daylight remains is an open question.

    I’m grateful for the work Sundance has offered here. I have archived all of this series of articles and everyone’s discussion, and will work at reading everything carefully. Thanks to Sundance and all of my fellow Treepers!

    Liked by 2 people

  27. Jay Currie says:

    Paper Silver…12.07, actual physical silver $24/oz, if you can get it….The disconnect is huge and getting bigger.

    Like

  28. A1ManWreckingCrew says:

    This is why I…….low key…….keep coming back (since 2012) thanks SD!

    Like

  29. Jeffrey Coley says:

    To summarize: Finance and investment are diversified globally, and are no longer tied closely to US GDP as they were prior to the end of the post-WW II era (~1990.) The Trump Doctrine of re-embiggening the US industrial base (exfiltrated over decades due to natural economic forces, supercharged by Chinese mercantilism enabled by collaborators in the ruling class) and the corollary diminishing of the Chinese economy propped up by the theft of American wealth, are moving the center of global economic activity away from China and back to the United States.

    Wall Street is being brought home, kicking and screaming, to Main Street. The Coronavirus crisis is being utilized skillfully by the Trump Administration to accelerate this change which he engineered.

    God bless our very stable genius President.

    Like

  30. USA Citizen Trump Supporter says:

    All intelligent people (except the Democrats) know China is responsible for this deadly virus. (Coronavirus) I truly believe the Communist leader Xi Jinping of China told his people who had the virus to go to every country on earth and spread this deadly virus so China will be able to take over the world. China wants to rule the earth and how better can they do that but by killing all the people in every country and then they can rule the earth. I’m serious about this. Nobody knows how evil China is. I think a 3rd World War should be against China.

    Like

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