U.S. Preliminary Trade Delegation Arrives in China For Initial Discussions of “Technical Details”…

The official, albeit preliminary, U.S.T.R. delegation from the United States is on the ground in China to begin initial discussions of “technical details” surrounding the ongoing trade dispute.  The preliminary talks are today (Jan 7th) through Wed (Jan 9th).

The prior notice from USTR announced the delegation: •Ambassador Jeffrey Gerrish, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative (pictured above – center); •Ambassador Gregg Doud, USTR Chief Agricultural Negotiator; •Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Ted McKinney, U.S. Department of Agriculture; •Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Gilbert B. Kaplan, U.S. Department of Commerce; •Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy Steven Winberg, U.S. Department of Energy; and •Under Secretary for International Affairs David Malpass, U.S. Department of the Treasury.

The delegation will be accompanied by senior officials from the White House, USTR, and the U.S. departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, State, and Treasury. (link)

Tu Xinquan, director of the China Institute for World Trade Organization Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing is quoted as saying Beijing’s first phase will be focused on technical details before more important voices “make hard political decisions.”

The Trump administration should be able to sense if Beijing is just playing Panda games to delay and outlast the administration.  It is widely anticipated China will deploy their historic strategy, giving the illusion of progress in order to avoid tariffs that are scheduled to trigger on March 1st, 2019.  However, the problem for China is their adversary, President Trump, is well aware of their traditional approach.

The Chinese government will also be relying on support from lobbyists throughout Washington DC, specifically the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, hired by Chinese interests to undermine the position of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and President Donald Trump.

Despite several threats, so far U.S. CoC President Tom Donohue has not been able to influence Trump, but he does control Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and roughly 15 United States Senators, known collectively as “The Decepticons.”  The Chinese communist government and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently have a joint financial enemy in the White House.

The Chinese economy is under a great deal of pressure from the aggregate approach being deployed by President Trump well beyond the issue of tariffs.  The Chinese have recently admitted they underestimated the resolve of President Trump.

Each time China takes aggressive action (red dragon) China projects a panda face through silence and non-response to opinion of that action;…. and the action continues. The red dragon has a tendency to say one necessary thing publicly, while manipulating another necessary thing privately.  The Art of War.

President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.

It is specifically because he understands that Panda is a mask that President Trump messages warmth toward the Chinese people, and pours vociferous praise upon Chairman Xi Jinping, while simultaneously confronting the geopolitical doctrine of the Xi regime.

In essence Trump is mirroring the behavior of China while confronting their economic duplicity.

President Trump is putting on a MASSIVE economic squeeze.

Squeeze #1. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sanctioned Venezuela and cut off their access to expanded state owned oil revenue. Venezuela needs more money. China and Russia are already leveraged to the gills in Venezuela and hold 49% of Citgo as collateral for loans outstanding.  China and Russia now need to loan more, directly.

However, China cannot engage in economic commerce with Venezuela or they risk losing access to the U.S. banking system.  Therefore all current Chinese aid to Maduro comes in the form of IOUs.  These ongoing loans are likely impossible to be repaid.

Squeeze #2. China’s geopolitical ally, Russia, is already squeezed with losses in energy revenue because of President Trump’s approach toward oil, LNG and coal. Trump, through allies including Saudi Arabia, EU, France (North Africa energy), and domestic production has influenced global energy prices.  Additionally, President Trump is demanding NATO countries, specifically Germany, stop supporting financial dependence on Russia.

Meanwhile, and directly connected, Russia is bleeding out financially in Syria. Iran is the financial reserve, but they too are energy price dependent and President Trump is now putting pressure on Iran vis-a-vis new sanctions and new demands on allies.

Squeeze #3. In 2017 Trump and Secretary Tillerson, now Secretary Pompeo, put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China. The U.S. removed $900 million in financial support to pressure Pakistan toward a political solution in Afghanistan, China has to fill void.  [NOTE: Last month the World Bank began discussions about a financial bailout for Pakistan.]  Again, more one-way bleed for China.

Squeeze #4. China’s primary economic threat (competition) is next door in India. President Trump has embraced India as leverage over China in trade and pledged ongoing favorable trade deals. The key play is MFN (Most Favored Nation) trade status might flip from China to India. That’s a big play.  It would have massive ramifications.

Squeeze #5. President Trump launched a USTR Section 301 Trade Investigation into China’s theft of intellectual property. This encompasses every U.S. entity that does manufacturing business with China, particularly aeronautics and technology, and also reaches into the financial services sector.

In March of 2018 U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer completed a section 301 review of China’s trade practices.  [SEE HERE] Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 authorizes the President to take all appropriate action, including retaliation, to obtain the removal of any act, policy, or practice of a foreign government that violates an international trade agreement or is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce.  However, as talks with China progressed, President Trump shelved the 301 action to see where negotiations would end-up. The May and June, 2018, negotiations between the U.S. and China provided no progress.  The 301 review of China was back off the shelf, and President Trump assembled his trade-war strategy.  After the December G20 dinner and the agreement to pause (90-days) the 301 tariffs/sanctions; they are currently being held by U.S.T.R Robert Lighthizer pending the outcome of the current talks.

Squeeze #6. President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Robert Lighthizer dissolved NAFTA in favor of the USMCA. One of the primary objectives of team U.S.A. is to close the 3rd party loopholes, including the dumping and origination trickery that China uses to gain backdoor access to the U.S. market and avoid trade/tariff restrictions. [China sends parts to Mexico and Canada for assembly and then back-door entry into the U.S. via NAFTA.]

Squeeze #7. President Trump was open, visible and vocal about his intention to shift to bilateral trade renegotiation with China and Southeast Asia immediately after Team U.S.A. concluded with NAFTA. [Current discussions with Japan are ongoing]

Squeeze #8. President Trump positioned the U.S. relationship with the E.U. as a massive potential loss for Europe (via Steel, Aluminum, and Auto tariffs) if they did not: (A) shift their trade relationship toward greater reciprocity; and (B) reconsider the size of their trade relationship with China.  After initially trying to push-back, Europe acquiesced.

Squeeze #9. President Trump has positioned ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as trade benefactors for assistance with North Korea. Last year the KORUS (South Korea and U.S.) trade deal was renegotiated, and announced in March. The relationship between ASEAN nations and the Trump administration is very strong, and getting stronger. Which leads to…

Squeeze #10. President Trump has formed an economic and national security alliance with Shinzo Abe of Japan. It is not accidental that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un fired his last missile over the Northern part of Japan. Quite simply, Beijing told him to.  However…

Squeeze #11. President Trump cut-off the duplicitous Beijing influence over North Korea by engaging directly with Kim Jong-un.  The open exchange and ongoing dialogue has removed much of the ability of Beijing to leverage the DPRK nuclear threat for their own economic benefit.  This dialogue was as much, if not more, about dismantling the Beijing geopolitical influence as it was about denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.  However, no-one caught on to that part of the strategy.

Add all of this up and you can see the cumulative impact of President Trump’s geopolitical economic strategy toward China. The best part of all of it –as we previously stated– is the likelihood China never saw it, meaning the sum totality of “all of it”, coming…. at first.

(Via VoA) […] Beijing has tried in vain to recruit France, Germany, South Korea and other governments as allies against Trump. They criticize his tactics but echo U.S. complaints about Chinese industrial policy and market barriers.

The European Union filed its own challenge in the World Trade Organization in June against Chinese rules that the 28-nation trade bloc said hamper the ability of foreign companies to protect and profit from their own technology.

For their part, Chinese officials are unhappy with U.S. curbs on exports of “dual use” technology with possible military applications. They complain China’s companies are treated unfairly in national security reviews of proposed corporate acquisitions, though almost all deals are approved unchanged.

Some manufacturers that serve the United States have shifted production to other countries to avoid Trump’s tariffs.

UBS said Friday that 37 percent of 200 manufacturers surveyed by the bank have shifted out of China over the past 12 months. The threat of U.S. tariff hikes was the “dominating factor” for nearly half, while others moved because of higher costs or tighter environmental regulation.

“Most firms expect the trade war to escalate,” the bank said. (read more)

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107 Responses to U.S. Preliminary Trade Delegation Arrives in China For Initial Discussions of “Technical Details”…

  1. JohnCarlson says:

    Confucius say – Dragon and Panda no match for Lion and Fox.

    Liked by 9 people

    • Clarence Smith says:

      True, but Xi does not have traitors working against him…..

      Liked by 7 people

      • Carrie2 says:

        Clarence Smith, I agree. Why do we allow the Congress members to think they can control us and be our boss as we the People who are the Government and they are hired help to represent US. We truly must close down/drain the Congress swamp and during this shutdown would be an excellent time to do so. We know most do not like our President because he has shown they are greedy power hungry nothings and so always want to block or negate what he and we want. I always thank democrat Ben Sasse for stating it out loud (you were hired to represent them”) and we need to inform them that if they don’t they are out of a job with no lifetime benefits. We can start a new Congress with the candidates working in their home states and do business by electronic real time LIVE videos, copies of which we will keep. Their state will pay the a salary and ditto any benefits and the whole country will not have to worry about them increasing their salaries yearly and no more need to be in DC either. Either we take back control of this supposed Legislative department or we will never have progress and business done. They spend our money like water and especially for things we see nor want given our money: PP, and teaching a shrimp to learn to walk on a treadmill, and more nonsense like this. We want our Constitutional laws followed and no thinking they can change it (like you want to do, Pelosi), nor so many other things they think they can control. Enough with their controlling, let us control and force them to do the job they were hired for and means no more useless committees and no more trying to block our President. No more than 2 terms in either House, and no appointing those we don’t want as Speaker, i.e., McCarthy when they knew we want James Jordan, who would represent us and not be another Ryan! Either they shape up or they will be kicked out and as I said above during this shutdown is the time to get it done once and for all. Don’t think we can. Well, think again because we can and we are their employers and enough is enough. We look the doors and keep the keys and they are out on the sidewalk or street. We are tired of their games and ignoring us. Many have suggested a protest there and many of us are ready and willing to protest and escape them out of OUR Congress, period!

        Liked by 4 people

        • Beagle says:

          You have some good ideas Carrie2

          Like

        • mugzey302 says:

          There are too many committees with members who think they have the right to negotiate with foreign countries and complicate military operations. And now The hyenas in the House have created their own DOJ legal dept as well, because their “job” is to harass and impeach a legally-elected President. If they get that Bill passed to eliminate the electoral college we will have globalist socialists in power from then on.

          Like

        • Carrie2, If we could find the net value of Mitch McConnell and each if “The Decepticons” when they started their political careers and now and everyone posted it out daily maybe these people would realize we see what they are doing and we despise them for it.

          Liked by 1 person

      • Jedi9 says:

        Like the saying goes “a nation can survive its fools but not treason from within”!

        Liked by 3 people

      • dustahl says:

        Are you sure

        Like

    • WSB says:

      Nothing that a pack of wolverines couldn’t overwhelm.

      Liked by 6 people

  2. Bullseye says:

    No Barney’s insight and that’s the B team

    Liked by 1 person

  3. jeans2nd says:

    The Chinese have lately allowed an Admiral to talk of taking out 2 U.S. carriers and killing 10,000 sailors, as China believes the U.S. cannot tolerate casualties, and have told the PLA (army) to prepare for war and hardship in preparation to “repatriate” Taiwan.

    China obviously still does not understand with whom they are dealing This in not your momma’s Obama president anymore (nor Obama’s Snowflake Army), this is The Incorrigible Deplorables President now. And Our Army was born Ready.

    China is in for a world of hurt. One way or another. Whatever it takes.
    .

    Liked by 14 people

    • Reality says:

      No, Taiwan will be taken over by the Mainland when the time is right. Probably by negotiation for a Hong Kong type deal. It’s not defendable vs the Chinese military across the strait, the US will not use nuke strikes to defend Taiwan, as it should not. No chance of a conventional defence.
      I realised Taiwan was finished when I saw their rank and file standard Army units regularly covering their faces.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Carrie2 says:

        Reality, you do not the Taiwanese at all. They have not and will not allow to be a part of mainland China, believe me. They are now a separate Asian country and people, think and act differently, and I have to remember they speak old Chinese and spelling. They are very proud of themselves and their country. I think we would also help them to defy the mainland critters.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Reality says:

          ‘They have not and will not allow (themselves) to be a part of mainland China’,
          Sure they will, the alternative is the levelling of the island and the destruction of everything they have built in their market economy. The Com Chinese elites regard that as irrelevant.
          Taiwan will reach an accommodation. The US cannot defend Taiwan with conventional weaponed warfare.
          The US can defend Taiwan with all out economic warfare but will not . Taiwan is going back to Chinese control, just a matter of when.

          Like

          • Jedi9 says:

            You don’t know what you are talking about! Taiwan will not be going back to China, at least not in our life time! The US will indeed defend Taiwan, and you have no clue what strategic tools the US has at their disposal that would make it extremely painful for China should they take any action militarily against a US ally such as Taiwan let alone a democratic country!

            Liked by 1 person

          • railer says:

            A US war with China would involve a distant blockade that would have China dark, cold and starving within 90 days. Their civilization would alter. It would be medieval. The resultant civil war would fracture China, and the body count would dwarf anything in recorded human history. Starvation, disease and slaughter at an unimaginable scale.

            This would all come about via a distant blockade. The US would endure almost zero casualties. The Chinese have zero capabilities to confront that distant blockade.

            You don’t appear to understand any of this, but the Chinese warlords do, I assure you.

            Like

    • Carrie2 says:

      jeans2nd, and China has to be aware of their own people protesting and doing the dirty on them. There are millions there who will this time do what has to be done and Xi is aware of that. Chinese today have better lives, more income, better educated, and more entrepreneurial (important for China), like and want good clothing, etc. and won’t like not getting Made in USA. So China threatens our military but had better watch out what our military can do to them and theirs. In any case, will be interesting to see what comes of this 3 day get-together for both countries.

      Like

    • Newton Love says:

      I hope that the Chinese Admiral gets his wish, and the Chinese Navy discovers that our ship defenses are much better than the Admiral thinks. In retaliation, the US Navy would sink every one of the Chinese ships.

      Trump would then call Premier for life Xi, and say: “I really would have preferred negotiating trade, but if you’d rather play war, it’s fine by me. We will use the combined US Armed Forces to destroy all of the strategic military sites in China. But if you want to call off this silly war gambit, that’s fine by me. War or Trade negotiation: it’s your choice.”

      Liked by 1 person

      • cocomama says:

        Also, US Space Force may become a factor. China says it has landed on the dark side of the moon and also displayed their big, big bomb. We must be pretty confident to challenge them at sea anyway.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. Mo says:

    Southeast Asia wary of China’s Belt and Road project, skeptical of U.S.:

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1P00GP?__twitter_impression=true

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Deplorable_Infidel says:

    ” (pictured above – center)”

    I am glad are folks are dressed seriously for the business at hand, unlike the troupe from Canada last year pictured last year while they were walking down a sidewalk. I am not posting the picture, it is in the CTH older post archives for anyone who is a glutton for punishment (use the search box).

    Liked by 2 people

    • emet says:

      Yes. The Chinese pay a lot of attention to this. And posture. Years ago I served as a translator for a government training mission which involved meetings with our hosts. The Treasury Dept guy in charge was always slumped over, and simply would not sit up straight and look attentive, even after I pointed this out. The Chinese love meetings, the longer the better, but you can’t slump. Bad form.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Carrie2 says:

        emet, right on. They are cultured and expect culture – manners, etc. Maybe that is why I have so many friends in China having been several times and even studied in one of the great universities. They are proud and too bad so many here have no pride.

        Like

      • Dee Paul Deje says:

        I noticed that every time there is a picture of a world leader and PDJT each sitting on a chair, POTUS is leaning forward with his hands in position like he’s holding his huge set of balls.

        Like

  6. SPECULATION:

    China agrees to massive new Agriculture purchases – PAID in ADVANCE – before planting season.
    • No more post-harvest purchase cancellations.
    • Boatloads more financial pressure China, with Current Accounts trending negative.
    • China begins liquidation of foreign holdings of real estate and business interests.

    China agrees to massive new LNG purchases – PAID in ADVANCE to cover Plant Expansions.
    … Future LNG sales swings between China & Europe could produce WIN-WIN vs Russia & China

    China agrees to massive new Coal purchases – PAID in ADVANCE to demonstrate goodwill.

    Liked by 9 people

    • Jedi9 says:

      The other more important issues still reside as major threats!

      Chinese stealing both military and industry tech needs to be addressed. Penalties for stealing intellectual property rights needs to be settled!

      The Chinese nationals still operating on American soil and spying needs to be addressed

      Military threat to our carrier group needs to be answered for!

      Chinese nationals operating as lobbyists also needs to be neutralised with harsh terms!

      China also needs to abide by international laws when it comes to observing countries sovereign rights to their waters if they are to be regarded as responsible members in the world community of commerce!

      Liked by 4 people

      • In short “China’s NOT READY for a Trade Deal” and the next ratchet of Tariffs goes into effect in March…

        Liked by 3 people

        • Jedi9 says:

          Yep! I don’t see a deal, because what team Trump is asking for means wholesale changes to China‘s domestic policies and that is not going to happen! I believe China’s strategy is to make enough concessions in order to wait out this administration! Everything else is mere window dressing! 盘大棋 霸道!

          Liked by 4 people

          • Dutchman says:

            jedi;
            I tend to agree, except making phoney comcessions and hoping PDJT will accept that, or go away, just ain’t gonna work.

            Sanctions will be ratcheted up, and when their economy is on the verge of collapse, and society on verge of liberation, then maybe they will deal w/out welching.

            Liked by 1 person

            • Jedi9 says:

              I agree! For the US that has to be the strategy long term! I was just pointing out China’s strategy knowing first hand how they think! It’s a zero sum game for them and they think they have all the time in the world as they tend to plan in 50 to 100 years perspective as opposed to the US where Presidential terms are fleeting from administration to the next so logic would dictate that China will present illusions as if they are conceding in order to buy time, enough time to wait out Trumps term in office! Like SD stated,Trump is aware of this play and thus it will be interesting what will come of these negotiations when the rubber hits the road!

              Liked by 2 people

    • Wishful thinking… It’s impossible for them to pay in advance. They could agree everything on the table, then change to another face after focus is off. A true example, a friend of mine exported beef to China after Xi promised Trump to import US beef. When her beef arrived at a Chinese port, their inspectors stated her beef did not meet Chinese requirement, or lacking necessary documentation, and so on. After more than 1 month she had to abandoned her full cargo of beef and doesn’t want to do business with Chinese again.

      For American cars, they may promise to lower tariff to 0, but they will add tens of fees to make up even more than tariff itself. This is how Chinese have played US and Western World in the last 20+ years, and they are going to do it again and again.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Jedi9 says:

        I am afraid you right! I have tons of stories like these from acquaintances both Canadians and Americans who I have helped in the past to negotiate deals! Doing business with Chinese nationals sucks and at this juncture you better off spending your time and money elsewhere when it comes to trade! I currently negotiate Chinese nationals on joint venture projects and I love stealing their money! I sleep just fine at night!

        Like

      • angellestaria6674 says:

        Oh, what you’re saying is that the Chinese are like the old style car sales person.

        They give you what upon first sight seems to be a great deal. But they tack on a hundred other various fees, etc…and before you know, if you’re not smart enough to figure the math out, you don’t get such a good deal after all. And financing can be one of the trickiest monsters in the whole world of buying and selling.

        So yeah, that’s really possible. We can keep track of the tariffs, but can we keep track of a thousand hidden “extra-curricular” financing and otherwise fees that perhaps only Chinese buyers of our cars will painfully have to deal with.

        Good point.

        Liked by 2 people

    • ichicinnabar says:

      Black Knight,

      Not just speculation. There are some Red Chinese front companies that are in turmoil, cancelling expasion and selling off assets. It is happening already.

      Ichi

      Liked by 3 people

  7. iwasthere says:

    The USTR – LIghthizer? Hope this crew is not all career Gov’y dopes.

    Like

    • Jedi9 says:

      I was asking the same thing! This is not the “A” team but more or less the JV team to feel them out!

      Liked by 1 person

    • ichicinnabar says:

      I was here,

      This is a serious working team who is here for business. This is how President Trump does business. Look at the roster of who is going. They are all experts in their fields. They appear to be bringing their own staffs as well. Several ethic Chinese are in the delegation. They will probably know the language well and will not have to rely on the translators provided.
      This is a no nonsense working group who are there to shake down all Chinese proposals. This delegation accomplishes two purposes. It gets the job done and it sends a strong message that President Trump means business.

      Ichi

      Liked by 2 people

    • Mo says:

      This twitter thread contains the thoughts and reactions to the message being sent by this Chinese Admiral by some very serious China researchers

      Liked by 1 person

      • JohnCarlson says:

        We should be spending that $50 Billion we are throwing away in Afghanistan on our Navy. Make that $25 Billion on our Navy and $25 Billion on defending our own Southern Border.

        Liked by 3 people

        • Bogeyfree says:

          IMO, we better get going with our hypersonic missle technology as I fear we are behind Russia and China.

          Like

          • MakersMark says:

            Our Navy is about to roll out the F-35 C. Our aircraft carriers patrolling Asian waters will remain far superior to Russia and China once these aircraft are on board!

            Liked by 1 person

      • Newton Love says:

        I hope that the Chinese do attack our USN Super-Carrier. The Chinese Navy will discover our ship defenses are much better than they think. In retaliation, the US Navy would sink every one of the Chinese ships.

        Trump would then call Premier Xi, and say: “I really would have preferred negotiating trade, but if you’d rather play war, it’s fine by me. We will use the combined US Armed Forces to destroy all of the strategic military sites in China. But if you want to call off this silly war, that’s fine by me. War or Trade negotiation: it’s your choice.”

        Like

    • andrewalinxs says:

      America is always a proverbial sleeping giant. Appearing weak as it slumbers and titanic force when it awakens.

      China would be repeating Japans mistake if it attacked the USA. You think they would learn from pearl harbor or September 11th. Massive American death enrages the country it would have the literal opposite effect form what the admiral says.

      Liked by 3 people

      • Mo says:

        Yes I think this Admiral is just mouthing off but if You study their 5 yr plans and such their military is supposed to be ready in 2020 for a localized war maybe why Xi has pushed the Taiwan issue to the forefront.

        Liked by 1 person

        • andrewalinxs says:

          Military action will come if all economic alternatives are exhausted. Japan’s attack on pearl harbor happened as they literally would have no more fuel for their fleet and industry in less then a month due to oil embargo. Knowing the USA would intervene on an invasion of the British, Dutch, and French colonies they preemptively struck as it was the biggest threat.

          China cant move against Taiwan for a similar issue and might as a result make a similar action. (but Taiwan is not economic or even strategic at this point its a pride issue.)

          The truth is though the President is not offering them economic oblivion.

          Japan was being given no ground by FDR to expand and so was backed in a corner where war became the literal only answer to solve the resource shortage.

          (note: Japan issues came from fighting a land war in China. The embargo was due to aggression against China. Their industry needed more resource to prosecute that war specifically as they had stalled out.

          China on the other hand is building its military to guard assets on the One Built One Road and its reconstruction of the silk road trade routes for resources. Their military is being built to safeguard economic trade lanes not expand their incentive. So strategically their aims seem more toward projecting power and security vs Military expansion.

          China however with its one built one road has the same strengths and weaknesses as Japan and is Co-prosperity sphere.

          Like

          • Jedi9 says:

            Think about it another way! Let’s say China attacked the US, then think about what China would lose within the US! Real estate holdings, Chinese nationals attending our universities would be sent packing! Spies would be rounded up, their lobbying power poof gone! Their banking assets seized, and not just in the US but also from our allies as well!

            I really don’t think China is that stupid to want to start a war with the US, it would appear they would have a lot, lot, lot more to lose than the US does!

            You know those islands they have been building? Those would be turned to ash within a day! Just saying…
            the ramifications for China would be costly!

            Liked by 1 person

            • Dutchman says:

              Before you even get there; China is dependant on the US, in two economic ways, and would lose BOTH immediately, in a war.

              Firstly supplies of food and raw material.
              Second our MARKET. ALL sales of products from China to America cut off.

              There simply is NO OTHER MARKET like the US. Think how much manufacturing in China is for products destined for the US. It would be “Last one out, turn out the lights!” for their manufacturing, which would mean massive unemployment, and concomitant dissent.
              Factor in cessation of sales of food, without which they can not feed their people, again massive unreat.

              They can not win a hot war with us; no how, no way.
              PDJT is not going anywhere, nor is he going to trust them, not to welch on agreements; they cheat, tarrifs reinstituted.

              They can not compete, in Trade, unless they cheat, or so change their society that it becomes a democracy. Without innovative thought, elimination of corruption thru private property, etc.
              they become a country producing crap no one wants, i.e. can’t compete.

              Liked by 1 person

            • andrewalinxs says:

              It is a point of fact China can not sustain an economy with out out the Untied States to buy its products. Its lack of a proper bottom up economy effectively forces it to be dependent on U.S.A buy their stuff. It i s a problem they have been failing at correcting for at least 20 years.

              Liked by 1 person

      • Mo says:

        How strong would Our will be to go to a possible Nuclear War with the chicoms over taiwan short of these them folowing this admirals advice and atacking Our ships in the south china sea?

        Like

        • andrewalinxs says:

          We are the only country in the world to have used Nuclear weapons on another country.The reason we did was to save lives and prevent WWII from becoming a bigger slaughter fest then it was. For those reasons America would do it again.

          A point the Soviet Union was very aware of in the cold war era.

          Like

      • CMDCMRET says:

        That’s not how it would go down, “massive US casualties”. I sailed those waters in guided missile destroyers for a decade. Master Chief Fire Controlman (Enlisted Surface Warfare Specialist)/Command Master Chief….recently retired.

        Liked by 2 people

    • angellestaria6674 says:

      Some people casually dismiss this Admiral’s remarks.

      I don’t. Why?

      One must remember that above all other things about China, their first and foremost ultimate objective to be completely achieved in a long-game’s agenda of many realms, e.g. trade, fiscal policy, military, manufacturing, digital stuff (especially considering the backdrop of Huawei’s development of 5g and the intense concentration to make everything tie into Chinese intelligence/spying) is global dominance in all things.

      Otherwise, for them it boils down to the phrase, “Serve China.” Huawei’s meaning is interesting. Basically and overall, Chinese achievement, or if broken down into 2 parts, “splendid act/China is able”, and “action/achievement.” All this is the real red dragon heart of China. Always been. Always will be.

      When you do some research about Huawei and start connecting the dots to this company to China’s overall objective, and how Huawei, if successful, will give the Chinese government vast, impossible-to-resist power and control through spying over its mass of people…and of course, as China hopes for, much of the rest of the world.

      All this of their long game is why I don’t casually dismiss the Admiral’s remarks. But the Admiral is not reading America correctly now. His desire is overreach.

      Peace to all here today. Hope you all had a great Sunday. Mine was rather disastrous on several fronts, but hey, it’s just another day.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Mo says:

        Yes i am deep in the story of huawei and yes it is that important to them. My hope is that the strangulation of their economy continues and gets so bad for Them that They have no option but to realize the President has defeated them and they have to negotiate or die.

        Liked by 3 people

        • angellestaria6674 says:

          We hope. I feel like anything that can downgrade the progress of Huawei is a great thing for us, Chinese citizens and the rest of the world.

          Glad to know there are people out there paying attention to this story and why the arrest of arrest of Meng Wanzhou was such a big deal to the Chinese.

          Liked by 2 people

  8. iwasthere says:

    Off point – I don’t know how we can pressure – but it is dispicable that McConell will not adjourn the congress and let Trump make appointments. Just disgusting. Pure swamp.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. JohnCarlson says:

    Confucius say (to President Xi in dealing with President Trump): By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.

    Liked by 3 people

  10. All the squeeze points are great.

    #4 Even coming from Sundance, his statement…”it would have massive ramifications.” is an understatement. That would be a monumental tsunami in global trade and financial realms.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. LBB says:

    The auto sector in China has had a big impact . Elon Musk will be in China too in regards to new plant .

    snip from Bloomberg.

    “A fully owned facility also would mean Tesla won’t need to share its profits and technology with Chinese partners, unlike other foreign car makers who are required to form a domestic joint venture.

    Domestic production would help shield Tesla against import duties as the U.S. and China find ways to wriggle out of the tariff quandary. The two sides have called a truce in their trade fight and are engaged in talks to cool tensions, with China temporarily scrapping a retaliatory 25 percent tariff on U.S.-made cars starting Jan. 1.

    At the height of the dispute, when China imposed the additional duty on American-made autos, Tesla sales in the Asian country — which is its second-largest market — plunged to as low as 211 in October, from 3,552 in June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. In November, they clocked 393.

    But the drop in the sales isn’t just a direct effect of the trade war, which is why Monday’s groundbreaking comes at an uncertain time.”

    Like

  12. 335blues says:

    I could be way off base, but for some reason I don’t believe communist china- Xi – is going to give in without an escalation that could involve some military action, or at the very least some other serious confrontation with America. Xi has dug himself into a hole by claiming the “dictator for life” mantle, along with his accompanying bluster and rhetoric. His delusions of grandeur foresee him becoming greater in the chinese history books than Mao. Xi strikes me as a very stubborn, vain man who believes “once I thought I was wrong, but I was mistaken”. This smells like a stall construct around the idea that President Trump will lose re-election in 2020, and all he need do is stall until then.
    I hope I am wrong.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Greg1 says:

    China will be watching President Trump and how he handles the government shutdown and the democrat’s resistance to a wall. If they sense weakness from Trump domestically they will use it to their advantage in negotiating with Trump’s team.

    The democrats will be watching Trump’s team and how he, through his team, handles the trade negotiations with China. If they sense weakness from Trump internationally they will use it to their advantage in negotiating with Trump to open the government without wall funding.

    If Trump caves on one he loses on the other.

    I don’t believe Trump will cave on either. All of this is way too important for the American people for Trump, and us, to lose.

    And Trump knows this.

    I pray for President Trump and the USA.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. Mo says:

    Since Elon Musk has been introduced let Me present to You the story of the man behind the success of SpaceX the rocket designer.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Mo says:

      Like

    • GB Bari says:

      Not sure how this relates to upcoming China-US trade negotiations.

      Seems a bit O/T. Better suited to the Open Topics Thread

      Like

      • Mo says:

        Yes You are right Bari I got a little too excited abt, the content and the post above mine posted article abt elon musk and China factory opening. Did You bother to read the tweet thread?

        Like

  15. Mo says:

    Like

  16. bertdilbert says:

    Squeeze #12: Uncertainty has shut down investment in China.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Jan says:

    I just hope they don’t take the trade team hostage and not let them return to the U.S. That would generate a huge, immediate conflict that would get our navy to the South Seas.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. Smiley says:

    U.S Chamber of Contributions Senate Republicans 2018.

    How many of these would eliminate the filibuster to move important legislation?

    Answer 0

    Heller, Dean (R-NV) Senate $10,000
    Flake, Jeff (R-AZ) Senate $5,500
    Fischer, Deb (R-NE) Senate $5,000
    Gardner, Cory (R-CO)Senate $5,000
    Cruz, Ted (R-TX) Senate $3,500
    Tillis, Thom (R-NC) Senate $3,500
    Strange, Luther (R-AL) Senate$3,000
    Hatch, Orrin G (R-UT) Senate $2,500
    Blunt, Roy (R-MO) Senate $1,000
    Portman, Rob (R-OH) Senate $1,000
    Rubio, Marco (R-FL)Senate $250

    Like

  19. notfaded1 says:

    Number 4 really can’t be overlooked. Much of what our companies have done in China can be redone in India. India will be more than happy to pick up the slack which will build our trade relationship with India. I have to think India will be much more fair than the Chinese ever have been. This is a WIN/WIN for the US and for India and another knife in the back of Xi. I’d be willing to bet that, depending on the outcome of these talks, we may see new outreach to India in a BIG way.

    Liked by 2 people

  20. TradeBait says:

    Down goes China (Frazier), down goes China, down goes China…

    Oh well. More promises kept by the POTUS.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. thedoc00 says:

    Desired Squeeze #14: President orders review and restructuring of ALL export licenses with China as well as existing Manufacturing Assistance Agreements (MAA) and Technical Assistance Agreements (TAA).

    Liked by 1 person

  22. William Moore says:

    It has to be a “TRADE DISPUTE”, doesn’t it? Not trade talks, not trade negotiations, not trade bargaining. Those words would be accurate and communicate a sense of positivity and optimism. But the world according to ALL MEDIA, this place included, knows that positivity and optimism do not sell, nor do they fertilize the landscape to grow every more abundant crops of hate. Politicians are despicable, self serving liars and usually criminals. People who speculate and write trash about them are a few steps lower.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Beagle Rocks says:

      Good observation William, I agree 100%

      Like

    • thedoc00 says:

      I agree this is a good observation. Add to your comment that Larry Kudlow, last week stated, there are not areas of disagreement between China and the US that are actually trade related. The major hurdles involve assessing and enforcing compliance with any agreements made.

      Yet, I still say the US is its own worst enemy with respect to the depth of industrial espionage that actually occurs. Also, this is a major smoke screen issue to some extent.
      1. Some level of industrial warfare and espionage has been in place since ancient times between Nations and Commercial entities. It will never go away. Even the US Government dabbles in this activity.
      2. US companies have signed legal document with China selling access to I/P directly as well as by making China Inc. an equity owner of those companies. So, the extend of legal use of US I/P is NOT known.
      3. The US government, at least through January 2017, has allowed for all sorts of export licenses, Manufacturing Assistance Agreements (MAA), and Technical Assistance Agreements (TAA) to be approved. If President Trump’s team really wants to curb China, this is the place to attack and hold US Companies accountable for I/P and assistance they allow to occur.

      Like

  23. Beagle Rocks says:

    I wish every Trump “doubter” could read this article and recognize President Trump’s great negotiating skills…. ex. Panda/ Red Dragon. Think about it, he uses this strategy with
    everything.

    Like

    • Pokey says:

      I hate to dump cold water on this highly optimistic blog, but almost everything PDJT has managed to do over the last two years is going to be overturned by the next POTUS, as soon as Trump’s enemies can get one elected. That looks to me like November of 2020, as things stand. If God actually does care about our country as an example to the world, it could be much farther down the road than that. Unfortunately, I believe God has left it to the citizens of this country to keep their own Constitutional Republic. So, I believe we have to win at the polls or else lose our country. And right now, with no wall even in the near future, I am betting on the latter. Another PJDT will have to be found to continue turning this trade mess around.

      Like

      • thedoc00 says:

        You are absolutely correct but the issue extends beyond re-election of President Trump or an equally like minded candidate in 2020. It comes down to outright party composition or creation of a viable and successful 3rd Party that will continue the legacy. As you accurately pointed out, its not about prayer or a divine miracle but required overt action by voters to retain the character of the Republic.

        Like

  24. railer says:

    Xi and Kim Jong Un are lining up another summit. Looks like the Nork card could be back in play. Problem is, Trump hasn’t pressed the Norks on that front, and merely said “we have time”. The Norks would have to fire missiles or light off warheads in order to provoke anything, and that would immediately cause Trump to smash down the 25% tariffs on China, which is exactly what they don’t want. The Norks as China’s catspaw is basically over. It can’t work.

    Trump’s strategy is just about flawless. The Chinese really need to make some concrete moves to mollify this situation. They can do it and save face, and Trump will let them. They really need to go back to Trump’s original ask… that they immediately take an additional $200B of US exports per year, across the full economic spectrum. While this would cause them some economic disruptions, it’d bring them some price, value and quality to compensate for those disruptions.

    I sense the Chinese position is losing support around the world, and here. That and their slipping economy and capital flight makes it plain that they need to make some moves. Trump knows better than to punish a weakened negotiating partner, and I don’t think he will. He didn’t with Trudeau and he won’t with Xi. Everybody will win here, I suspect.

    Like

  25. dustahl says:

    Would not surprise me, if there was a huge revolution in China.

    Like

    • thedoc00 says:

      Why do you think the Army is being “prepared”. It is not for use against invaders as the Chinese have a growing internal Muslim Problem and potential for another Tiananmen Square eruption due to the economy and easily seen Economic Hypocrisy on display by elite government officials.

      Like

  26. Cheesehead2016 says:

    Good luck USTR delgation team and Trump Administration. Keep winning!!!!

    Like

  27. cripto says:

    Where to begin?
    Well the photo-op of the US-China trade delegations in Beijing shows a serious, focussed group. Liu He stopped by for a greeting. A good sign.

    As to those questioning the delegation here or calling it the ‘JV’ team, perhaps you should read this article giving details about the lead negotiator Deputy US Trade Representative, Jeff Gerrish.

    “Gerrish, Lighthizer’s Skadden protégé, to set tone for China talks”
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/03/us-trade-gerrish-lighthizer-1058173

    For an interesting editorial in Caixin, a few days before the meeting saying:’China’s adoption of a national negative list for investment does not in itself level the playing field for private and foreign companies since there still are many hidden barriers to equal market access that must be removed’.

    “Editorial: China Must Remove Hidden Barriers to Market Access”
    https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-01-03/editorial-china-must-remove-hidden-barriers-to-market-access-101365984.html

    Another good analysis on what the US could do concerning tech transfers and the way forward (under discussion at this meeting).
    https://chinaipr.com/2018/12/27/trade-and-peace-on-earth-part-2/

    Another area that I’m sure will be addressed is the draft of the proposed Foreign Investor Law that China has delayed finalizing until March (the deadline for progress on US-China trade agreements).
    https://npcobserver.files.wordpress.com/2018/12/Foreign-Investment-Law-1st-Draft.pdf
    An English summary here:
    https://npcobserver.com/2018/12/26/npcsc-solicits-public-comments-on-draft-foreign-investment-law/#more-10247

    There are some major improvements in the Law that address the concerns of the US and other countries but there are essentially four loopholes if the playing field is to be leveled and may be raised by US negotiators: “1)A new unspecified national security review system for foreign investment; 2) The right of China to adopt reciprocal measures against any country that disciminates against Chinese investment; & 3) Financial services subject to other laws , and (the elephant on the room) 4) It is missing is any reference to equal treatment by domestic & foreign firms in China’s M&A review process, which has primarily been used against foreign firms & is rarely applied to SOEs.”

    To wrap up, the President scheduled to meet Wang Qishan (or Xi if he goes) at Davos,Jan 22-25 World Economic Forum. Anither chance for a face to face?
    https://sc.mp/1r8ly

    Like

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