A new ADP Payroll Report shows job gains of 202,000 from November to December 2019 far surpassing expectations. The increase was the largest gain since April ’19: “largest gain since April, driven mainly by professional and business services. Job creation was strong across companies of all sizes, led predominantly by mid-sized companies.”

(Reuters) – U.S. private payrolls increased by the most in eight months in December, pointing to sustained labor market strength though job gains last month were likely flattered by a seasonal quirk.
The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed private payrolls jumped by 202,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since April, after an upwardly revised 124,000 rise in November.

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UPDATE: Response from President Trump

There is a big difference between “rockets” being fired, and ground based “missiles” being launched from inside Iran.  Stay aware initial reports are often wrong or misleading.
Breaking Reports are confirming that several “short range” and/or “cruise” missiles are being fired into “multiple” U.S. bases in Iraq.  U.S. officials are confirming missiles from Iran have targeted Al Asad Air Base in western Iraq (Western Anbar Desert), and U.S. forces in Erbil – northern Iraq.

CNN is reporting President Trump was briefed on the “rocket” attacks, according to White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham. “We are aware of the reports of attacks on US facilities in Iraq. The President has been briefed and is monitoring the situation closely and consulting with his national security team,” Grisham said.

(VIA ABC) – Multiple missiles have been launched into Iraq from Iran targeting American bases.
“This morning, courageous fighters of the IRGC’s Air Force launched a successful operation called Operation Martyr Soleimani, with the code ‘Oh Zahra’ by firing tens of ground-to-ground missiles at the base of the terrorist and invasive US forces,” the country’s state-run news outlet ISNA reported.

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Earlier today U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper held a press briefing. Video below. When the transcript is available it will be posted HERE.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released Q4 (November) import/export data showing a considerable drop in the U.S. trade deficit. [Release Here]  Exports increased approximately .7 percent ($208.6 billion) while imports dropped one percent ($251.7 billion.  Lowering the overall trade deficit to $43.1 billion.

While the pundits are surprised at the strong result, it should not come as a surprise to many CTH readers.  During Q2 (June) and Q3 (July, Aug, Sept) the rate of GDP growth was impacted -in part- by inflated U.S. purchases as companies bought holiday merchandise earlier than normal.  This was an effort to avoid looming tariffs, and as a result companies increased their overall inventory.  We predicted Q4 purchases (Oct, Nov, Dec) would be lower specifically because of this backlog of retail inventory.
With the massively successful holiday season now over, those inventories have sold.  Specifically because the value of imports are deducted from the GDP calculations, there will likely be a much stronger Q4 GDP growth resulting from less import activity.
The Wall Street financial pundits are too focused on the multinational side of the ledger; and they simultaneously don’t review data from a Main Street perspective; therefore they don’t see -or pretend not to see- the common sense equation staring them in the face.
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Any headline that uses the phrase “France Warns” immediately requires a background review to understand the big picture driving French fears.
Just like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau thinking he could outwit President Trump’s policies on NAFTA trade (he failed), Trudeau’s bestie, French President Emmanuel Macron, has stupidly exhibited similar shortsightedness.  In the case of both leaders their weasel moves have put their nations’ into a precarious economic position.
To consider the future for France, it would be wise to remember last year when President Trump arrived to attend the G-7 in Biarritz, France, President Macron was waiting at the Hotel du Palais to ambush Trump for an unscheduled luncheon (pictured below):

This was just one example in a series of scripted weasel-moves played by Macron in an attempt to pontificate his importance for the international audience.  Another example from the same event was Macron inviting the Iranian foreign Minister to the G7 for sideline meetings unrelated to the topics being discussed in Biarritz.
In an effort to create leverage against the U.S. position, President Macron never discussed his Iranian invitation -in advance- with the U.S. delegation.  It did not go over well.
The EU, and specifically France, have a dependence on foreign energy sources as a result of their ridiculous climate policies and narrow thinking.  In essence the EU wants to do business and receive oil from Iran; however, U.S. sanctions against Iran forbid those business deals.  Ergo Macron attempted to inject influence and position his interests.
As stated, the ambush approach did not go well, but POTUS played it cool.
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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appeared on Fox News, CBS, NBC and ABC to discuss the killing of Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani and the current status with Iran.  Here’s the roundup:
CBS Margaret Brennan clutches her pearls and sits aghast at the audacity of the United States to kill a terrorist on foreign soil: “what right do you have” she condescendingly snarls, positioning herself as more experienced in the world than Secretary Pompeo.  With dramatic flair and purposeful constitution, Brennan rises to protect the Iranian regime.

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ABC George Stephanopoulos is shocked, s.h.o.c.k.e.d, that U.S. policy would mean Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani could be killed.
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Fox News host Dan Bongino interviews Rudy Giuliani for his podcast.  The topics include increased crime in New York City; Iran, the ‘Spygate” surveillance scandal; the IG report on FISA abuses against the Trump campaign, and Joe Biden’s history of corruption.
The interview starts around 04:00 minutes into the video.

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This speech was originally delivered in late November 2012 after the presidential election.  Setting aside nuances in the Romney aspect watch this video again… in hindsight… and contrast specifically against current events.
Stay with it… watch it all the way through.  Pay attention to the specific subject matter outlined, the details as encapsulated, and contemplate what Bill Whittle says in this video against VERY CURRENT events: “a president who believes in his message“…

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On the day the administration briefs congressional leadership about the details of the strike that killed Iranian terrorist Qasem Soleimani, President Trump warns Iran about consequences for any retaliatory strike against Americans:

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A good day for a MAGAnomic pause and reminder…
In 2015 we discussed candidate Trump’s economic positions and how they would impact the economy.  CTH anticipated that MAGAnomics would be reversing three decades of federal reserve monetary policy. After about a year of analysis and discussion, in 2016 CTH presented a theory: “A new Dimension in Modern Economics“.

CTH shared a possibility of what could happen if Trump Economic Policy was shifted to favor Main St. over Wall St.  One aspect we presented was how Federal Reserve monetary policy would be oddly disconnected from its ability to influence inflation… Today:

SAN DIEGO (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve could find itself fighting too-low inflation for years to come, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Friday, and may need a new policy framework to lift inflation back up to the Fed’s 2% goal.
“We don’t have a really good understanding of why it’s been so difficult to get inflation back up,” Daly said at the annual American Economics Association meeting in San Diego.

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