The synergy, flow and timing of the U.S. trade and economic team is just a marvel; a brilliant assembly of perfectly in-tune economic and trade professionals.
As President Trump touched down in the U.K. to attend the two-day NATO summit, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announces the completion of a Section 301 review of France’s Digital Services Tax (DST).
After determining the value of the French tax on U.S. internet services at $2.4 billion; Lighthizer announces a 100%  countervailing duty on a carefully selected $2.4 billion in French imports.
Obviously the agenda for the bilateral NATO meeting between U.S. President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron just changed.  LOL, you have to love Team USA.
Oh, but wait, wait… it gets better….
We have to remember, THIS $2.4 billion U.S. tariff against France would be on top of the $7.5 billion (per year) countervailing duty recently won from the Airbus subsidy case in the WTO…. and by law France cannot retaliate.
Oh my, President Trump strolls into the NATO bilat with Macron while holding a $10 billion legally justified countervailing tariff position.  How’d ya like ‘dem grapes?
(more…)

Chopper pressers are the best pressers.  Earlier today President Trump paused to talk to the press pool prior to departing the White House for the NATO summit in the U.K. [Video and Rough Transcript Below]

.
[Rough Pool Transcript] – President Trump … we’re fighting for the American people. It has not been a fair situation for us because we pay far too much as you know. Secretary Stoltenberg said we were responsible — I was responsible — for getting over $130 billion extra from other countries that we protect, that weren’t paying. They were delinquent. So we’ll be talking about that. We’ll be talking about a lot of things.
We are leading the world now on the economy, and we have been almost since I became president. But we are substantially ahead of anybody else. Nobody’s even close. You know that very well. And I look forward to having a number of very, very productive days for our country. We’ll be working hard. Do you have a question?
(more…)

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox Business to discuss the status of the U.S-China trade “negotiations” :::nudge-nudge, wink-wink::: and highlights the ‘phase-1’ fulcrum is China committing to the $50b Ag purchase without condition.  Secretary Ross also notes the December 15th date just happens to be “good timing” if the U.S. team is “forced” to put more tariffs on China.  LOL.
Additionally, Mr. Ross notes the challenge of a strong dollar as it relates to allied nations who are stimulating their own economy by sending us even cheaper stuff, ie. Brazil.

(more…)

Whenever we discover a financial analyst who understands the new dimension in U.S. economics (rare) it is worth revisiting them from time-to-time. Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian was one of the first MSM pundits to: (a) accept the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street via de-globalization; and (b) begin to explain why that matters in the era of Trump.
El-Erian appeared this morning on Fox Business News to discuss President Trump’s re-imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina. Additionally El-Erian discusses trade tensions, market outlooks, consumer strength, recession fears, and the drag the rest of the world is placing in the U.S. economy.

.
The U.S. economy is strong; all the fundamentals are solid. However, the multinationals on Wall Street -invested overseas- are more exposed. There is nothing that China and the EU can do to stop the de-globalization process; and efforts to stimulate their economy, more quantitative easing (pumping money) while the global supply chains are being shifted, are futile… they need “structural reform.”  The multinationals are holding cash, waiting to see how it plays out.
(more…)

Oh my gosh.  First Lady Melania Trump introduces the 2019 Christmas Holiday decorations, and they are spectacular.

(more…)

Given the background activity last week between USTR Robert Lighthizer and Mexican Trade Minister Jesus Seade, and their agreement to set up a trilateral trade and labor dispute panel, President Trump now puts Speaker Pelosi in “check”….

(Tweet Link)

Having lost her labor defense shield (well played by Lighthizer/Seade), Pelosi is now either going to stand her party against the majority of Americans as President Trump pummels them over it… Or she puts the USMCA up for ratification (Trump wins) and it looks like she takes a knee….  Well played by President Trump.
(more…)

Jumpin’ ju-ju bones…. Keep in mind as you review these numbers – U.S. consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total U.S. GDP.  The sales numbers from Thanksgiving and Black Friday are exceptionally strong, showing confidence by consumers this holiday season.  This is not the ‘recession’ we were promised by pundits.
Continued strong wage growth amid all sectors of the U.S. workforce, particularly in non-supervisory positions, combined with low inflation and low energy costs, means consumers are spending out of ‘household cash flow’ which is considerably higher.

(Via CNBC) […] Spending online on Black Friday, as of 9 pm ET, hit a new record of $5.4 billion, up 22.3% from a year ago, according to data pulled from Adobe Analytics, which measures transactions from 80 of the top 100 U.S. online retailers.
This comes as foot traffic appeared to be lighter at shopping malls across the country on Friday, a day that traditionally has been reserved for people to line up outside of big-box retailers and department stores to score doorbuster deals.
Total spending online on Black Friday is still forecast by Adobe to hit $7.6 billion, which would make the day the second-biggest online sales day ever, after Cyber Monday in 2018, where $7.9 billion was spent.

(more…)

President Trump has said he is close to a decision that would designate Mexican drug cartels as officially recognized terrorist networks by the United States.

Remember, within the geopolitical dynamic that benefits all three North American countries, Mexico needs to start taking clear and decisive actions toward all levels of internal corruption if the ultimate economic objective of the USMCA is going to work.

Mexican President Lopez-Obrador is concerned this designation could lead to U.S. military engagement against the cartels.  The Democrats are concerned this designation would mean they could no longer accept campaign donations from the drug cartels; and into this mix of interests, U.S. Attorney Bill Barr is going to Mexico.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Friday that his government was committed to fighting organized crime, seeking to dispel fears that the United States could take matters in its own hands in the fight against drug cartels.
U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier this week that he plans to designate the Mexican cartels as terrorist groups, a move aimed at disrupting their finances by imposing sanctions.
While this does not directly give the United States authority for military operations in Mexico, many Mexicans are nervous their northern neighbor could use it as a pretext for a unilateral invention.

(more…)

The leaders of the twenty-nine NATO member nations are scheduled to meet next week in London, England.  Amid consistent pressure on the member states for increased defense spending to live up to their prior 2014 promises (Wales summit); and with NATO economies in a stalled geopolitical stasis due to their attachment to China (5G telecom), Russia (Nordstream II), and Iran; this summit holds increased possible ramifications.
This NATO summit could very well expose the duplicity and hypocrisy of the EU depending on how far U.S. President Donald Trump is willing to call them out.
There are going to be a lot of nervous snake handlers around the table(s), and with the U.K. elections in the near future there is a great deal at stake. The summit is Tuesday and Wednesday.  Here’s the White House background briefing:
[Transcript] – SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I just want to thank everyone for being here today, Friday after Thanksgiving.
Just up front, this call is going to be on background, attribution to a senior administration official, and there will be an embargo on the contents of this call until it’s completed.
(more…)

During his short-lived media appearances former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne claims he had spoken to the DOJ April 5th, 2019, and again April 30th, 2019. Mr. Byrne stated he told the DOJ all of the information he was aware of during those two interviews covering approximately seven hours of questioning from officials in the Department of Justice.

During interviews Mr. Byrne highlighted the May 13th DOJ appointment of John Durham to look into the origination of the Russia investigation events. Byrne surmised this was likely, at least in part, a direct result of his two DOJ sessions April 5th and 30th, 2019.
Ms. Maria Butina, a young Russian idealist, was caught up in the 2016 vast Russian conspiracy agenda and had strong connections to high powered Russian oligarchs.
Originally the purpose of Butina coming to the U.S. in 2015, as explained by Patrick Byrne, was for her to engage with influential Americans for political contacts that could provide geopolitical value to the oligarchs.
Former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne was seen as important to Ms. Butina due to his connections to the emerging financial structures of crypto-currency and block-chain. Mr. Byrne is a libertarian who believes in small government, and is somewhat of a disruptor in the business world. Ms. Butina wanted to introduce Byrne to her friends in Russia.
(more…)