President Trump has taken the leverage of economics to levels of geopolitical strategy never seen before.  Nowhere is the genius strategy more clear than in the way Trump has positioned the trade reset and confrontation with China.
In hindsight every move since early 2017 including:  (1) the warm welcome of Chairman Xi Jinping to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate; (2) the vociferous praise poured upon Xi; (3) the November 2017 tour of Asia; (4) the direct engagement with North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un; the strategic relationship with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe; and a host of smaller nuanced moves have been quietly building toward a conclusion.
The upcoming G-20 summit is the last chance for Trump and Xi to reconcile considerable differences and President Trump has the strongest strategic position any Chinese official has ever faced.
After Beijing walked away from previous agreements between USTR Robert Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He, Trump initiated a series of punishing economic consequences that had to have been well planned in advance.
The economy in China is reeling from the pressure applied; and stunningly it has only been a month since the consequence phase began.
In addition to tariff increases, the U.S. blacklisted Huawei Technologies Co., threatened other major Chinese tech companies and essentially cut-off China from the international supply chain it needs to sustain itself.  Beijing responded by drawing up a list of “unreliable entities” and making threats against any enterprise that would walk away from business engagement with China.  The totalitarian response has worsened the situation, and more companies have announced their intent to decouple from Beijing.
An important aspect, missed by most observers, is the ideology and outlook within any Chinese engagement. Quite simply, if it does not benefit China it is not done.  Therefore any negotiation with China is challenging because Beijing will cede no ground they view as already won.
(more…)

More indications of the growing financial exit to avoid the predictable response from totalitarian moves by Beijing.  [Backstory – Backstory] Now we see reports growing of mass financial moves out of Hong Kong, as billionaires see the looming shadow of Red Dragon closing in…

HONG KONG (Reuters) – Some Hong Kong tycoons have started moving personal wealth offshore as concern deepens over a local government plan to allow extraditions of suspects to face trial in China for the first time, according to financial advisers, bankers and lawyers familiar with such transactions.
One tycoon, who considers himself potentially politically exposed, has started shifting more than $100 million from a local Citibank account to a Citibank account in Singapore, according to an adviser involved in the transactions.
“It’s started. We’re hearing others are doing it, too, but no-one is going to go on parade that they are leaving,” the adviser said. “The fear is that the bar is coming right down on Beijing’s ability to get your assets in Hong Kong. Singapore is the favoured destination.”

(more…)

Apparently Justin from Canada is coming to the White House for a meeting with President Trump…

WHITE HOUSE – President Donald J. Trump will welcome Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada to the White House on June 20, 2019. The visit will reaffirm America’s deep partnership with Canada, and allow the two leaders to address opportunities and challenges related to expanding bilateral cooperation.
President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau will discuss the shared economic interests of their countries, including the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and opportunities to drive more growth and create jobs in both the United States and Canada. The two leaders will also discuss the upcoming G20 Summit, which will take place from June 28 to 29 in Osaka, Japan. (read more)

Last month, Manny Montenegrino had a good discussion with Ezra Levant about the current issues with the relationship between Justin from Canada and President Trump.  Against the backdrop of this upcoming visit, it’s worth revisiting:
(more…)

If you’ve got the time this is well worth watching.  Larry Kudlow is Chairman of the National Economic Council and delivers a strong voice amid the economic team of assembled by President Trump.
Kudlow provides value because he comes from the Wall Street economic punditry networking group that just doesn’t understand MAGAnomics, or ‘America First’ Main Street policy.   President Trump has taught Kudlow a great deal.  So Kudlow’s value is heightened by his ability to explain Trump’s Main Street policy to his old Wall St. tribe; who genuinely have no concept of Main Street policy (hence, they’re always puzzled).

(more…)

Against the intense leverage being applied by President Trump, last week Beijing doubled-down and threatened punishment against any company that would leave China and begin manufacturing elsewhere.
The totalitarian response was predictable and expected.  However, also predictable was the corporate response to the threats.
As we shared:  “China is counting on prior western investment being so significant that a corporation will be reluctant to withdraw. However, in this outlook Beijing seriously underestimates the free market because communist controlled China doesn’t understand the action of a inherently free market.
The first loss is the best loss. If walking away from an investment provides more financial security and stability than attempting to retain a grip on a tenuous position – corporations will walk away.” (more)
Now today – “Nintendo Moves Some Switch Production Out of China”:

TOKYO— Nintendo Co. is shifting some production of its Switch videogame console to Southeast Asia from China to limit the impact of possible U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made electronics, said people who work on Nintendo’s supply chain.
It is another example of manufacturers adapting to the tariff threat. Taiwan’s Foxconn Technology Group said Tuesday that it was ready to move assembly of Apple Inc.’s iPhones out of China if necessary, and Japan’s Sharp Corp. , which is controlled by Foxconn, said last week that it planned to move production of personal computers to Taiwan or Vietnam.

(more…)

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcome Polish President Andrzej Duda and his wife Agata Kornhauser-Duda to the White House.  The relationship between the U.S. and Poland is one of the cornerstones of a newly invigorated united alliance in Europe.
President Trump visited Warsaw, Poland, (July, 2017) where he delivered a speech vowing to confront “new forms of aggression” targeting Western values. The President and First Lady received a very enthusiastic reception during their visit to Poland.
Ahead of a bilateral meeting between the two leaders they held a press availability in the oval office.  [Video and transcript]

.
•President Donald Trump says he is seriously considering a return visit to Poland this fall. •The United States will send 2,000 more service members to Poland as he announces a broadening security and economic alliance. •The Polish government will pay for the infrastructure to support additional troops. •Poland will purchase 32 U.S. made F-35 fighter jets. •The U.S. and Poland have agreed to $8 Billion sales of liquefied natural gas.
[Transcript] PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. We have the very great privilege of having the President of Poland with us and his very powerful and lovely wife. Thank you very much. It’s great to be with you again.
(more…)

On Tuesday afternoon President Trump was asked a question by media about Kim Jong Un.  President Trump responded to the question, and simultaneously delivered an openly coded message to Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping that few would understand:

[Transcript] Q (Inaudible) about your meeting with Kim Jong Un while you’re in South Korea? Are there discussions underway?
THE PRESIDENT: So, I see that. And I just received a beautiful letter from Kim Jong Un, and I think the relationship is very well. But I appreciated the letter. I saw the information about the CIA, with respect to his brother, or half-brother. And I would tell him that would not happen under my auspices, that’s for sure. I wouldn’t let that happen under my auspices.
But I just received a beautiful letter from Kim Jong Un. I can’t show you the letter, obviously, but it was a very personal, very warm, very nice letter. I appreciate it.

(more…)

Yesterday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held a press conference to answer questions about the U.S-Mexicos migration and border security agreement. After reviewing some info from today, I’m inserting a graphic into Pompeo’s transcribed responses to better understand the “45 days” aspect. [Video and Transcript]

.
[Transcript – (emphasis mine)] SECRETARY POMPEO: A couple things this afternoon. First, I’ll give some remarks later this week that are consistent with what we’ve been working on for my entire time here in the Indo-Pacific.
I’ll be speaking to a group of Indian business leaders in preparation for the trip that I’ll take in a couple weeks where I’ll be visiting India, an important part of President Trump’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific. And I’m looking forward to the opportunity both to give the set of remarks about how it is our relationship is so closely tied economically, but also importantly the things that the United States and India can continue to do to build out what is an incredibly important relationship for both countries.
(more…)

There’s always a larger geopolitical dynamic when you assess the economic alliances that President Trump puts together…. Always and underlying plan…  Sometimes it just takes time to surface.
As we have noted, even going back to 2017, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe always appeared to be the fulcrum for President Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy.  

Remember the trip to Japan as honored guests of Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako at the Imperial Palace?  Remember last month’s (May 25th) unprecedented reception with the titans of Japanese business?  Remember the private reception set up by a very nervous U.S. Ambassador William F. Hagerty?  A reception with the most influential business CEO’s in Japan and Southeast Asia? 
Well…

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s Tokyo Electron, the world’s No.3 supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, will not supply to Chinese clients blacklisted by Washington, a senior company executive told Reuters.
The decision shows how Washington’s effort to bar sales of technology to Chinese firms, including Huawei Technologies, is ensnaring non-American firms that are not obliged to follow U.S. law.

(more…)

White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett squares-off against Fox Business crew on trade tensions with China, the state of the U.S. economy, the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and his upcoming departure from the White House.
Steve Forbes is disconnected from the reality of what happens with tariffs on China. Beijing first responds to off-set the tariff by lowering the value of their currency, and/or subsidizing the targeted products. There is no price increase to U.S. consumers (check inflation).

.
Apparently President Trump was watching the segment, and had a word for Maria Bartiromo, Dagan McDowell, Steve Forbes and Stuart Varney:
(more…)