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Apple Inc. Exploring China Exit – More Supply Chain Moves…

This is interesting… but not simply because of the surface visibility.  Yesterday there was an event in Charlotte, North Carolina, that brought together Apple CEO Tim Cook, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Workforce policy advocate Ivanka Trump and U.S. CoC President Tom Donohue (on the margin).

Today, Apple Inc announces a restructuring of their supply chain away from China. In the media report notice the nations that likely stand to gain, and reference Trump’s 2017 golden ticket tour of Asia.

(Reuters) – Apple Inc has asked its major suppliers to assess the cost implications of moving 15%-30% of their production capacity from China to Southeast Asia as it prepares for a restructuring of its supply chain, according to a Nikkei Asian Review report on Wednesday.
Apple’s request was a result of the extended Sino-U.S. trade dispute, but a trade resolution will not lead to a change in the company’s decision, Nikkei said s.nikkei.com/31zCGhw, citing multiple sources.

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There It is – Chairman Xi Jinping Announces Magnanimous Panda: DPRK Hostage Release is "Correct Direction"…

As we noted on Day #1, if we watch how Beijing scripts the messaging we should be able to identify if Chairman Xi Jinping is taking the dragon approach toward his captive Kim Jong Un, or if Xi would instead reshape the geopolitics by announcing his release of Kim as a hostage: The magnanimous panda approach.  [Critical Background HERE and HERE]
It looks like we have an answer today as Chairman Xi writes a personal op-ed, published on the front page of North Korea’s state newspaper, where Xi is releasing Kim from proxy province captivity:

…”China supports North Korea’s “correct direction” in politically resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula.”…

Yes, though important details are yet to follow, it appears Beijing is acquiescing to the unrelenting pressure from hostage rescuer President Donald Trump and allowing the DPRK to exit the controlled captivity of China. Likely denuclearization will commence.

SEOUL (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping said in an op-ed in North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun on Wednesday that China supports North Korea’s “correct direction” in politically resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula.
The front-page op-ed is an honor rarely granted to foreign leaders and comes a day before Xi is set to visit Pyongyang on Thursday and Friday at the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, making him the first Chinese leader to visit in 14 years.

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President Trump Calls Out China and EU Currency Manipulation…

This is a good development.  I strongly appreciate a U.S. President who believes in the intelligence of the U.S. voter to understand what is taking place.
President Trump is not selling the U.S. electorate short on their ability to understand the financial dynamic of ‘globalists -vs- nationalists’. President Trump is calling attention to currency manipulation by China and the EU. [Tweet]

In the big picture, what these global economies are doing is trying to offset President Trump’s ‘America First’ policy.  There are trillions at stake, and when you stand back and evaluate the scale of economic cost in this process you begin to recognize the severity of ideology and history of controlled financial manipulation.
By lowering the value of their currency, China and the EU are attempting to block the impact of tariffs against their export position.  Lowering the price of Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) or Euro (€) makes their exports cheaper to a stronger U.S. dollar.  This is what has been happening for the past six months. There are trillions at stake.
Despite what the Wall Street financial pundits have been saying, we have been importing their manufactured deflation for six months. U.S. consumers are not paying the tariffs on imported goods.  The devaluation of currency is why costs of import goods are actually less year-over-year (dollar strong). This is a strategy on their part to counter Trump, tariffs, etc. The globalist economies are trying to wait out Trump 2020.  We see the evidence of this in the CPI import prices:
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NEC Chairman Larry Kudlow Discusses Trump-Xi G20 Meeting…

National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on Fox News immediately following the announcement that President Trump and Chairman Xi will have an “extended meeting” at the G20.


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Gordon Chang on 2019 G20: "The Meeting of All Meetings"….

Author of ‘The Coming Collapse of China’, Gordon Chang, appears on Fox Business to discuss the mounting U.S. trade tensions with China, the fallout from the protests against Carrie Lam in Hong Kong, and the announced visit by Xi to North Korea.
Chang also sees the visit by China’s Chairman Xi Jinping to North Korea as a strategic and purposeful moment for Beijing; an attempt to find footing against the overwhelming economic punishment being delivered by U.S. President Donald Trump.


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Ho-Lee-Cats, is it Happening? – Chairman Xi Announces Visit to North Korea…

Well, well, well….  Against the backdrop of everything we have been discussing about the nature of the U.S. – China – North Korea geopolitics; and considering the current position of all the players; THIS is a very interesting development:

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit North Korea for two days from Thursday, state media in both countries reported on Monday, making him the first Chinese leader to visit in 14 years.
Neighboring China is reclusive North Korea’s only major ally, and the visit comes amid renewed tensions between the United States and North Korea over efforts to persuade Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons.

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Huawei Tech Prepares for 40 to 60 Percent Drop in International Smartphone Shipments…

Bloomberg has an interesting article citing an internal discussion within Chinese technology company Huawei as they estimate the financial impact to the U.S. blacklist position.

Do the math… Huawei estimates an international drop of between 40 million to 60 million units at an average retail cost of $500 per unit. That is a stunning financial forecast for a drop in sales.

(Via Bloomberg) Huawei Technologies Co. is preparing for a 40% to 60% drop in international smartphone shipments as the Trump administration’s blacklisting hammers one of the Chinese tech giant’s most important businesses.
China’s largest technology company is crunching internal estimates and exploring options including pulling the latest model of its marquee overseas label, the Honor 20, people familiar with the matter say.
The device begins selling in parts of Europe June 21 including France and the U.K., but executives are monitoring the launch and may cut off shipments if it sells poorly as expected, they said, asking not to be identified discussing internal matters. Already, two of France’s largest carriers aren’t bothering with the Honor at all, two people familiar with the matter said.

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Sunday Talks: Peter Navarro -vs- Charles Payne…

Charles Payne, filling in for Maria Bartiromo, interviews White House Manufacturing and Trade Policy advisor Peter Navarro.  Unfortunately the interview begins with a discussion of tariff polling….  The vast majority of Americans have no understanding of the impact of tariffs and/or MAGAnomic policy; they only know the economic outcomes they can feel.
Mr. Navarro walks through how tariffs interact with global supply chains and the financial manipulation by multinational corporate interests.


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Hong Kong Leader Carrie Lam Suspends Chinese Extradition Proposal…

~ Dance With The Dragon ~

Amid the furor from hundreds-of-thousands -perhaps millions- of protestors, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announces a ‘suspension‘ of the proposed extradition law that would have permitted extradition of Hong Kong residents to Chinese law enforcement.

Lam apologized on Sunday, for the way the Hong Kong government handled the proposal but she did not fully take the controversial law off the table.  The ripple effect of the proposal itself now calls into question the autonomy of Hong Kong, and many observers foresee it is now only a matter of time before China takes a tighter grip.
Currently Hong Kong is not subject to the same economic consequences within the U.S-China confrontation.  As long as Hong Kong is considered ‘autonomous’ they remain detached from U.S. tariffs and other measures targeted to China.  However, if China breeches the increasingly unclear barriers, judicial and legal systems intended to provide that autonomy – well, then the situation could change.  Hong Kong is tenuous at best.
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Wall Street Wrong Again – Import Prices Decline During Full Year of Import Tariffs…

The latest set of statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality.  In actuality the year-over-year prices of import products are actually dropping:

U.S. Import prices fell 0.3 percent in May, the first monthly decline since a 1.4-percent drop in December. Import prices advanced 1.8 percent from December to April before the downturn in May. The price index for overall imports decreased 1.5 percent over the past 12 months, matching the drop in January. These were the largest over-the-year declines since the index fell 2.2 percent in August 2016. (See table 1.)

The U.S steel and aluminum tariffs have been in effect globally since 2017. Tariffs on softwood lumber (Canada) & durable appliances (S. Korea), same duration.  Additionally the first set of tariffs on China is now well over a year old; and the second set of expanded tariffs on China began a month ago; again, no material impact to the delivered price.
Despite two years of claims by the professional media that tariffs would lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers, as you can see above the reality is quite different.
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