Mexico’s president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador “AMLO” easily won yesterday’s election with 54% of the vote; the highest vote total in three decades.  In addition his MORENA party won an absolute majority in both the Mexican Senate (38% +/-) and the Chamber of Deputies (38% +/-).

The multinational financial community is in the process of evaluating how the nationalist win will impact all prior investing.  One of the key issues is NAFTA.  Multinational corporations have poured billions into Mexico as a structural method to utilize the trade deal to gain access to the U.S. market.
Despite his campaign position, AMLO is now affirming a positive intention to renegotiate NAFTA; however, he is speaking from both sides of the current issue.  Example:

[Today] Lopez Obrador said he supports reaching a deal on renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement with the United States and Canada.
[…]  Lopez Obrador said he will propose that his own team of experts be included in the talks. The winning candidate said he will make that proposal in a meeting Tuesday with current President Enrique Pena Nieto.

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The official announcement is coming momentarily.  All other candidates have conceded.  Looks like Andrés Manuel López Obrador, an avowed soft-Marxist, will EASILY end up with 53 to 59% of the vote and is the next President of Mexico:
Primary platform points:  ♦Amnesty to all drug cartels.  ♦No longer will work with U.S. immigration enforcement.  ♦Nationalize oil industry.  ♦Farm subsidies. ♦Elimination of multinational corporate influence on farming.  ♦Support and assistance for economic growth plan: using •mass migration of Mexican nationals into Southern U.S., •create AmeriMex border region, and •remittance of earnings back to Mexico as initiative for rapid domestic economic growth.
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Earlier today in response to questioning about the current Democrat platform to abolish ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement), President Trump said he hoped his political opposition would run on that issue because they are out of touch with the American voter.
A Harvard Harris poll (full pdf below) shows President Trump’s instincts are spot-on.  1,448 polled voters. [Poll ideology: Democrat 37%, Republican 32%, Independent 29%]

An overwhelming majority of American registered voters, 70 percent, support tougher immigration enforcement to include a border wall (60% support), deportation (64% support), and repatriation of all illegal border crossers including families with Children (61% support). Additionally 69% of voters do not support the position of disbanding I.C.E.
♦ Page #67 – Do you think current border security is adequate or inadequate? 61% Inadequate / 39% Adequate
♦ Page #69 – Do you support or oppose building a combination of physical and electronic barriers across the U.S.-Mexico border?  60% Support / 40% Oppose
♦ Page #72 – Do you think that the Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, known as ICE, should be disbanded or not?   31% Disbanded / 69% Not Disbanded
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Within the German economy the auto-sector holds the largest political influence.  Because of this dynamic all German politicians kneel at the knee of the big industrial auto manufacturers.  It has been said that losing support from within the auto-sector is much worse on a German politician than losing support from party or parliament.
Because of this dynamic; and specifically because the German auto-sector is dependent on the United States as their biggest customer, President Trump holds leverage over German Chancellor Angela Merkel.  This makes Fraulein Merkel unhappy.

President Trump wants three EU issues resolved: 1) Germany to contribute the minimum 2% of GDP for their own NATO defense.  2) Germany/EU to support enhanced sanctions against Iran; and  3) President Trump wants all German/EU protectionist trade barriers and tariffs lowered or eliminated – and new trade deals negotiated.
To gain momentum on these initiatives, President Trump is using the economics of trade as leverage.  Trump has suggested a 20% tariff on all EU automobiles shipped into the U.S. [The same standard now likely proposed toward Canada]  The German auto-sector, and as a consequence the German economy, simply cannot survive without low cost access to the U.S. market, their biggest customer.
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Retiring ICE Director Thomas Homan had a message for congress, politicians and media on his last day in office.   Namely all need to get their facts straight.

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Today Canada released an updated list of retaliatory tariffs designed as countermeasures to the U.S. Steel and Aluminum tariffs [SEE HERE] which will begin Sunday, July 1st.
Additionally, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains, and Employment and Labour Minister Patty Hajdu, announced they would initiate an emergency program to use Canadian taxes compensate workers, expand unemployment benefits, and subsidize impacted industry.  Yes, in a transparent display of political ideology (throwing capitalism directly out the window), Canada doubles-down on centralized government subsidies to offset market impacts.   Brilliant ‘eh!

Chrystia Freeland made the announcement on the floor of a Hamilton steel factory Friday. In a rare backdrop, Ms. Freeland actually entered a factory with machines and things, to deliver the carefully choreographed political message (video below – watch the last minute to understand).
Team U.S.A. have applied tariffs to Canadian softwood lumber, Steel and Aluminum as Canada refuses to negotiate new terms for NAFTA where North American products are prioritized.  Canada demands the ability to continue importing Asian, mostly Chinese, products for their assembly-based market.
With the latest counter-move by Justin and Chrystia from Canada, it is increasingly likely President Trump will levy a 20% tariff on imported Canadian automobiles.  Last month (May) the Canadian economy dropped over 31,000 Full-Time jobs.
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President Trump often holds local media Q&A’s when discussing specific local aspects to larger trade and economic initiatives.  In this quick interview with Charles Benson President Trump discusses the Foxconn deal (more on that will follow), and the larger issue surrounding a global trade reset objective (important video below).
As steps are taken within the America-First economic initiatives, many people are overlooking President Trump’s ultimate goal of a complete global reset in trade.  The Trump administration wants all trade tariffs and trade barriers removed so that all nations can compete on an even field.
In order to achieve that goal, POTUS Trump is applying the process of reciprocity; assigning an identical U.S. trade standard as the country being confronted.
The international community cannot negotiate (in good faith), from an adversarial position, against an identical trade policy they apply toward the U.S.
However, until today no President has ever called out the global trade hypocrisy; let alone challenged it directly.   President Trump will not back down from this approach. The international trade community is just now realizing that fact.
Within the process of negotiation to achieve this reset, President Trump begins to apply the principles of reciprocal trade tariffs.  This is the first phase; this is where we are now.
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National Economic Council Chairman Larry “Kuddles” Kudlow is back after suffering a mild heart attack. [Yikes, “mild“, is there such a thing?]
Appearing on TV with Stuart Varney Chairman Kudlow explains how the administration hopes to use the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA) to enhance U.S. trade policy.  Mr. Varney cannot comprehend Trump-speed in achieving a global trade reset:

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While media wasn’t paying attention, President Trump brilliantly played congress to gain strategic trade leverage.  Knowing political opposition would unite, POTUS Trump took a forgiving position toward Chinese company ZTE; Trump-haters and NeverTrumpers quickly aligned to push through hammer legislation designed to hurt China and by extension Trump’s position.  However, Trump actually wanted the tool.  POTUS now weaponizes FIRRMA as trade leverage against all 301 targets.   Brilliant.
USTR Robert Lighthizer Final 301 Report on China Trade Infractions HERE
Part 2 of Kudlow interview below:
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There is an article from Bloomberg which finally concedes the obvious economic and trade dynamic within a U.S. -vs- China confrontation.  The media paradigm shift is based on new statements from Chinese Ministers admitting they cannot win a trade confrontation with U.S. President Trump.
The summary reason is simple, we have discussed it frequently:
China is a production-based economic model, they do not have the ability, or wealth, to consume their own durable goods production; they rely on exports.
The U.S. is a more balanced economy; we consume 80% of our own production.  We are self-sustaining, China is not.
Without a market to sell their products, the Chinese economy cannot survive.
Conversely, China has focused so intensely on durable-goods manufacturing, their consumable goods market (food) is dependent; they cannot feed themselves.  The U.S. can survive without exporting food, China cannot survive without importing food.  The U.S. economy can survive without importing durable goods; the Chinese economy cannot survive without exporting durable goods.  This is the unavoidable trade reality.  As a consequence President Trump has all the factual leverage.
In stunning, and carefully worded economic writings, Chinese academics and economic ministers are now talking about the inherent weakness of the Red Dragon policies:
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On “Face the Nation,” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) discusses current stalled status of immigration reform efforts and the possibility of a compromise bill that could come up for a vote this week.

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Immigration twitter thread HERE.

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