U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and a delegation of out-going and in-coming Mexican trade officials have been conducting intensive NAFTA negotiation talks for the past several weeks.  The out-going Mexican officials, led by Ildefonso Guajardo, are optimistic terms of agreement can be reached with the U.S; the incoming Mexican officials led by AMLO’s Jesus Seade, not so much.
The key issue is still the NAFTA fatal flaw that allows both Canada and Mexico to exploit their access to the U.S. market as brokers for imported Asian parts, assembled in Mexico/Canada, and the finished goods shipped into the U.S.  That structural issue remains unresolved; hence the impasse.
Meanwhile, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland wants to reenter the trade discussion after being shut out since the beginning of May.

(Reuters) – Canada is “very keen” on concluding negotiations to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement as soon as possible, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Saturday, amid signs of progress after months of delays.

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Larry Kudlow has fully immersed himself in MAGA.  The evolution from supporter to believer likely comes from the increase in proximity to President Trump and the resolve therein.   Good stuff.
In this segment the Chairman of the National Economic Council discusses the background of the U.S. -v- China trade reset and the long-term goal of open global markets with Zero tariffs, Zero non-trade barriers and Zero subsidies.

President Trump has moved into Phase II of the U.S./China confrontation.  Part of that confrontation is to use the inherent weakness of the Chinese economy against them.  To understand the weakness is to understand the China ‘One-Belt / ‘One-World‘ economic trade strategy.  Here’s an outline of the economic battle-space we are witnessing.
People often talk about the ‘strength’ of China’s economic model; and indeed within a specific part of their economy –manufacturing– they do have economic strength.
However, the underlying critical architecture of the Chinese economic model is structurally flawed and President Trump with his current economic team understand the weakness better than all international adversaries.
Lets take a stroll and discuss.
China is a central planning economy. Meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions. China was/is controlled as a communist style central-planning government; As such, it is important to reference the basic structural reality that China’s economy was created from the top down.
This construct of government creation is a key big picture distinction that sets the backdrop to understand how weak the economy really is.
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President Trump sets the 2018 Mid-Term priority. Excellent. “I don’t care what the political ramifications are.” … “Border Security is National Security, and National Security is the long-term viability of our Country.” Yes, indeed, yes it is.

(Tweet LINK)

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Apparently our CTH suspicions were correct; this is interesting.  Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is scheduled to leave Canada on Tuesday for a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers in Singapore…. Meanwhile U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and a high-level Mexican team -consisting of both incoming AMLO and exiting Nieto delegations- will be meeting again to determine the details of a bilateral trade deal.

Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo is from the outgoing Pena Nieto administration and was part of the crew supporting the Canadian position; ie. the plan to continue exploiting the NAFTA loophole.  However, Mexican president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has selected Jesus Seade as his lead person for trade negotiations and appears more willing to engage in a bilateral trade deal with the U.S.
AMLO’s Jesus Seade, Minister Ildefonso Guajardo and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer are meeting again this Thursday to put the outline of a deal together; while Canada is sidelined from the discussion.
Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association in Canada, said: “I wouldn’t be surprised if the Americans and the Mexicans came to some resolution on that piece (autos) and then the Americans flip it back to Canada and say ‘Take it or leave it’.”  That is exactly what CTH anticipated was going to happen.
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Interestingly Reuters uses the narrative from an anonymous Canadian “official” to frame an article about how global car manufacturers are coming together next week in Geneva to coordinate their strategy against the United States and President Trump.
Just let that part sink in for a moment…

Behind that context we can clearly see: 1) the economic importance of the Auto industry to the countries that are assembling; 2) their multinational corporate interest in retaining unlimited access to the U.S. market; and 3) the absolute need of all assembling corporations to find a way to keep their investments in NAFTA’s fatal flaw viable.
Who is gathering?  Canada, Mexico, the EU (ie. Germany), Japan and South Korea.
Where are they going?  To visit Geneva, Switzerland.  Why Geneva? Because that way China can attend (see Volvo/Sweden) without being on the official roster.  ::nudge, nudge:: ::wink, wink::  ::say-no-more Panda boy, say-no-more::  Additionally, Cecelia Malmström (EU Trade Minister), is the person Canada is relying upon to cover their anti-Trump position:

MEXICO CITY/OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada, the European Union, Japan, Mexico and South Korea will meet in Geneva next week to discuss how to respond to threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on U.S. imports of autos and car parts, officials familiar with the talks said.

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The head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Kevin Hassett shares his perspective on the 4.1 percent GDP growth, and the ongoing MAGAnomic America-First initiatives.   Hassett rightly points out that finished good domestic inventories dropped as an outcome of consumer purchasing outpacing manufacturing.  As more manufacturing comes on-line, the production capacity expansion leads to more GDP growth.
Remember, one of the unique attributes of the U.S. economy, thanks to the foresight of industrial titans who built it, is our internal consumption.  We are not only the worlds’ largest economy, we are the biggest self-sustaining economy in the history of the world; a massively consequential strategic advantage. Our leverage comes from nations needing access to our market; the U.S. does not necessarily need access to theirs. Therefore POTUS Trump can dictate the terms.

President Trump delivers a weekly address for W/E July 27th, 2018. The primary topic of immigration enforcement and support for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is the message:

In June of 2016 the Mayor and Police Chief of San Jose California made an intentional decision to allow candidate Trump supporters to be violently attacked by a coordinated mob of radical leftists. {See Here}  In the days and weeks that followed it was discovered that an actual plan was put into place by city officials to assist the mob {See Here}

Undercover police officers admitted they were given stand-down orders and watched as hundreds of Trump supporters were beaten and brutalized {See Here} A lawsuit was filed against the city of San Jose {See Here} and the officials who coordinated the planned response.   City lawyers have been trying to get the lawsuit dismissed:

CALIFORNIA – Supporters of Donald Trump attacked during a presidential campaign rally in 2016 won a ruling allowing them to proceed with a lawsuit against the city of San Jose, California, over claims that police failed to protect them from violence.
Protests in June 2016 in downtown San Jose quickly devolved into a bloody scene when demonstrators outside the rally venue attacked the president’s supporters, pelting them with eggs and water balloons before punching them and snatching their “Make America Great Again” caps and setting them ablaze.

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For those following the nuance within ongoing U.S. trade discussions you have likely noted Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer speaking optimistically about a potential for a U.S. Mexico trade agreement. However, simultaneously the U.S. trade team is not optimistic about any deal with Canada.
Mexico’s President-Elect Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has changed the trade dynamic internally within NAFTA for two reasons: #1) because the agriculture sector is much more critical to Mexico than it is to Canada; and #2) AMLO acknowledges and accepts the NAFTA fatal flaw; his manufacturing economy is based on the assembly of imported parts – like Canada, Mexico doesn’t actually manufacture much (ex. no aluminum smelters).

[Pompeo congratulating AMLO – Not an accidental delegation]

In the big picture AMLO wants to advance the Mexican manufacturing base; expand the aggregate economic base; and also stop the corporate exploitation of the Mexican farm worker. In these objectives U.S. President Trump is more than willing to be a partner with President Lopez Obrador. Heck, President Trump would actually love to assist AMLO on that agenda; it is mutually beneficial.
Diametrically, in Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has doubled-down on the retention of the fatal flaw and does not want an expanded domestic manufacturing base. The enviro-nuts of his base just will not support it. Therefore, Canada is loggerheads with the United States because Canada is demanding to retain their NAFTA access to the U.S. market, and simultaneously retain their ability to broker imported Chinese goods.
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