An interesting reaction from Beijing highlights an evaluation of risk from the lack of oil flowing from Iran.
According to most evaluated data, China was buying more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil. That’s according to data from 2025 as analyzed by Kpler and published in January by Reuters.
Iranian oil always had limited buyers due to U.S. sanctions. However, China purchased on average 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year, according to Kpler. That represented about 13.4% of the total 10.27 million bpd of oil it imported by sea.
With President Trump previously cutting of discounted oil from Venezuela, two things unfolded. First, the Venezuela oil was no longer sold with non-petrodollar currencies; Venezuela oil is now being sold on the standard oil market. Secondly, with the Venezuela oil disrupted China would become even more dependent on Iranian oil shipments if they wanted to retain the discounted rate.
How big is the financial difference? According to Reuters, “Iranian Light crude has traded at around $8 to $10 a barrel below ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China since December.” … “That means Chinese refiners save about $8 to $10 a barrel if they buy Iranian Light rather than non-sanctioned oil.”
Additionally, as noted before Operation Epic Fury began, “Iran has a record amount of oil on the water, equivalent to around 50 days of output, as China has bought less because of sanctions and Tehran seeks to protect its supplies from the risk of U.S. strikes, Kpler said.”
Buying discounted oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia resulted in billions of dollars saved by China. The only production venue not currently disrupted would be purchases from Moscow. This increases the dependency, but the purchase price may no longer carry any discounted value, at least not at the previous rate.
India was purchasing a significant amount of Russian oil for its own refinery use and sale back into the global market. China and India would now be bidding for what is likely a more valuable Russian export. No more discounts put the “teapot” refining operations in Shandong, China, into a squeeze. This also highlights the decision by China to limit refined exports.
[VIA NBC] – China’s government has told the country’s largest oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline as an escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf disrupts the arrival of crude from one of the world’s largest producing regions.
Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner, met refinery executives and verbally called for a temporary suspension of refined product shipments that would begin immediately, according to people familiar with the matter. They asked not to be named, as the discussions are not public.
The refiners were asked to stop signing new contracts and to negotiate the cancellation of already-agreed shipments. The people said. An exception was made for jet and bunker fuel held in bonded storage and supplies to Hong Kong and Macau, they added.
[…] China has a vast refining sector, but much of its production is funnelled to serve domestic demand, meaning it is not a critical supplier. Across Asia, it ranks third for seaborne exports, behind South Korea and Singapore. However, Beijing’s precautionary curbs reflect efforts across the import-dependent region to prioritise domestic needs as the crisis in the Middle East deepens. (read more)
Oil’s well that ends well…or not.
And people in Congress are now losing money, hence, their pearl clutching.
That is Oilwellian!
It will be telling if China will settle for higher, but still discounted oil from Russia. I don’t think the dragon wants a stronger bear as a neighbor.
Either way, it levels the field for manufacturing in the US with shrinking the disparity of cost of energy inputs.
I’m curious how refined products have much to do with the cost of energy inputs. Aren’t China’s energy inputs primarily cole?
My only theory is that you’re referring to the transportation of finished products.
I can’t speak to the proportion of coal (of which China has plenty) used directly in manufacturing and producing electricity, but sale of refined petroleum products would bring in hard currency, which China needs.
Good question as we are always hearing about the large amounts of coal used by China and clean energy…of course they get a pass while we’re busy putting ours out of business.
China won’t have a choice paying higher prices. Russia isn’t going to discount their oil.
I read that China was getting Venezuelan oil at the lesser discount of $3 per barrel.
Before we grabbed Maduro or after?
Panda big pout.
Well, well, well…..now will be an excellent opportunity for China to transfer 100% of its power needs to solar. They have plenty of solar panels, I hear. Everybody know that EV power is the trend of the future……….[slight snark]……..
But now Congress has the sadz.
No sarc necessary. One man’s junk is the same man’s treasure, in this case. Lol
They made it and we bought their bull$hit and pushed it here. That part of the agenda is over also. The President has seen to that. Look at the major car makers moving from electric to hybrid. Like you said, let them sit there like all of their electric cars they can’t sell either. Well, maybe to Canada………..
Golly, sounds like it’s getting rough for the Dragon.
Now POTUS Trump gets to show China a panda face while acting in the world as the dragon China thinks it is.
Yes!
Munch on some more bamboo China!
Wasn’t China purchasing all that Iranian oil using their own currency, Renminbi, rather than Dollars? That apparently was a factor in helping them meet their petroleum needs at a lower price than they otherwise would have. Going forward they are likely to have to meet that need after first converting Renminbi into Dollars, which will push their spending up for the same amounts of oil, wherever they obtain it from. Just so, so bad. Boo hoo.
So where was Iran spending all that?
Buying Chinese weapons.
They were funding terrorism around the world, buying missiles and war tech from china and russia while feverishly working to produce a nuclear arsenal.
Not much bang for the buck, considering the dismal performance of Chinese and Russian armaments.
In Minnesota. attacking ICE.
That, too.
I’ve read reports from chinese sources saying Xi’s sister was in charge of the purchase of all that oil, bought low with renmenbi then sold high for dollars, with the profits benefiting primarily the Xi family.
It certainly benefitted someone.
Likewise with Venezuelan oil.
No mas.
So sad. No more cheap oil for China.
The ayatollah was long overdue for his dirt nap, but I think Trump’s long game in the Iranian conflict in with China.
China produces 70% of EVs globally. It relies on its purchased global “leaders” to employ both carrot and stick to foist these crappy vehicles on their hapless citizens. Luckily, Trump stuck a fork in this charade, and said, “we’re done”. Ditto all those crappy short-lived “energy efficient” appliances, the vast majority made in China. The limp Eurocrats don’t have the same autonomy.
China, the largest polluter on the planet, wants developed nations with oil reserves to shun their own resources to “save the planet”. More oil for China, and at a cheaper price. Sorry, Panda, not sorry.
Our stance in Africa has always infuriated me, vis a vis China. We’ve poured TRILLIONS into that continent. Paved roads, provided aid, food, medicine. Built schools and hospitals, created infrastructure. Smoothed things over so that China could come in and swoop up rare earth minerals. And the Africans are getting a raw deal.
Squeeze China for oil, and then let it flow in exchange for their African mining rights. Bonus, many African countries become our legitimate business partners, rather than a constant aid drain on the American taxpayer.
China has always played the long game, and relied on the perception (sadly, too often true) of the limited attention span of the West. Let’s prove Panda wrong.
Fear not. The Africans will eventually give thd Chinese the boot. That’s historically what they do. In fact, it’s already begun.
Russia will not be offering the “discount” china was getting. Just my thoughts.
I have read taking out Iran also affects Russia negatively (no more drones) in their war.
I think most of Russia’s Shahed drones are Russian manufactured copies.
Can they switch to solar and wind power for their industries? Set an example for the world.
Only if they hire Greta as their clean green spokesperson.
When Greta was arrested in Israel a couple of times, how did she get home. Walk, fly.
Trump is playing 3D chess and everyone else is playing checkers.
4D.!!!
It’s a bad situation for China.
I posted this article on the open Presidential thread this morning, but it’s now more relevant than it was.
Take note in this excerpt where it’s said that Chinese companies have invested billions in oil infrastructure in Iran- and how do you think that will all go over there now with these companies?
This is the part when things get ugly because as the author is explaining here, all that Xi has said to his billion+ people (that these oil companies then invested based upon) it’s all turned out that Xi had it all wrong..
See this part here from the article:
Every Iranian Move Is a Chinese LossThe truly vicious part of Beijing’s situation is that Iran’s entire playbook for retaliation was designed to punish Washington, but the geography and economics of each weapon mean the damage lands on China instead. Iranian missiles aimed at Gulf states threaten the very oil infrastructure and port facilities that Chinese companies have spent billions investing in across the region.
The Strait of Hormuz is worse. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced within hours that no ship would pass through the channel, a threat designed as leverage against the West, except that the United States has a shale industry and a crisis-proof strategic petroleum reserve. In fact, according to Kayrros, as of March 31, 2025, China had only filled 56% percent of its above-ground strategic and commercial storage facilities.
Which means that nearly 45% of China’s own oil imports now sit/would sit hostage to a blockade that was never meant to hurt Beijing. The Houthis have resumed attacks on Red Sea shipping, every flare-up in Iraq threatens oil concessions that Chinese companies spent billions building, and the sum of Iran’s resistance amounts to a systematic disruption of Chinese commercial interests across every waterway and energy corridor Beijing depends on, executed in Khamenei’s name, with no regard for who actually pays the price.
Here is the link for the article:
China Is Scramblinghttps://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-scrambling#comment-stream
“………………….the United States has a shale industry and a crisis-proof strategic petroleum reserve.”
“In fact, according to Kayrros, as of March 31, 2025, China had only filled 56% percent of its above-ground strategic and commercial storage facilities.”
After four years of Biden mucking things up, how much does the US have in its strategic reserve? For a while there he was dumping reserve oil in an attempt to manipulate the US market in an effort to hide his many fiscal policy blunders.
You can see on this chart here that Donald Trump has been rather steadily filling up the tanks:
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve
Zoom that chart out to the 5-year view and see just how much Biden stole from the SPR. It was almost 640M bbls when Biden got in and drained it below 350M, almost half.
PDJT has been steadily re-filling but SLOWLY. At this rate it will be many years to get back to Jan 2021 levels.
China’s inability to secure adequate energy to fuel (no pun intended) the growth and maintenance of their belt and road initiative is satisfying to watch after the decades of exploiting the West. Maybe the problem will be serious enough to result in a serious Chinese economic contraction that puts political pressure on Xi?
There’s already been economic contraction, with numerous companies moving manufacturing elsewhere (e.g., Vietnam) as Chinese labor costs increase and the U.S. puts the squeeze on companies to return home.
China threatened to withhold rare earths. Now America has a response, no oil.
Rare Earth for Rare Oil.!!! CheckMate.!!!
Any word how Japan will be affected by the lack of Iranian oil, and any strategies they can persue? I would like to help out our Far East ally.
Why would Japan be affected?
To clarify, 70-80% of Japan’s imported oil goes thru the Straits of Hormuz. Their economy will be decimated without it. Hopefully oil shipping will resume soon. But if it doesn’t, wondering if there are contingency plans to help support them.
I don’t know about tanker count, but couldn’t Brazil and the US pick up a portion of the slack?
I live in NY and can tell you that even before the war we were getting crushed with outrageous electric utility bills as well as skyrocketing costs of heating oil during one of the worst winters ever.
Today gasoline and oil are going up by the hour it seems. On top of that, the largest LNG plant in the world, in Qatar, has been taken out by Iranian drone strikes for at least a month, maybe more. This is truly a catastrophe for the world energy markets.
I do support President Trump as always, but I am praying that this war ends asap. The Islamic Demo-Commies like mayor Mandami and the odious governor Hochul are trying to force us out our homes via the NY Climate Act and this isn’t helping. Statistics show that more than 33% of New Yorkers would leave this state if they could.
Well, one question,who elected the mayor and governor.And I would have moved a long time ago .So 67% are totally satisfied “33% of New Yorkers would leave this state if they could.”. That right there just answered my question ,who elected the mayor and governor.
They were installed through rigged elections. Lee Zeldin (R) would be Governor of NY if elections weren’t rigged.
THANK YOU RONIN! You absolutely nailed it. Another big reason NY is so FU- the totally useless NY GOP. They share some of the blame for Commie Mandami as well as the cheating and stupid voters.
It’s not so easy for many people to move in many cases. There are people who have obligations, family etc. that they cannot just up and go somewhere else.
Many Voters in NY have been dumb about their choices and haven’t really paid attention to the election processes and how they might be manipulated in every election. It’s just a Democrat blue on blue state overall. Red in the upstate but the numbers are not enough against the NYC regime of democrats.
Zeldin surely won the last governors race, but even he didn’t pursue looking into any election fraud very long. He would have been good but he would have had a very difficult time when the rest of the govt is pure democrat controlled.
NY is a RED state outside of NYC and a few upstate cities. We’re not “dumb” about who we vote for, and we know everything about the election process, you have no idea what you’re talking about. This state has had rigged elections since before the Civil War, Tammany Hall INVENTED election fraud. Next time, learn something before you insult an entire state’s conservative voters. Sheesh.
I don’t get your comment. CJZak acknowledged that upstate is primarily Red/REP counties, but we are very much outnumbered by all the cheating and illegals in the NYC Downstate area who “vote” for the Demo-Commies.
CJzak was not insulting the conservative voters- far from it. Just acknowledging the sick reality of what was once the great state of NY.
The elections in NY have been rigged since the 19th century. There hasn’t been a fair election in this state since the 1840s at the latest.
Election integrity would’ve helped and still may! Not everyone could just pack up and leave! NYC has nothing to do electorally with the rest of the states and I guarantee without cheating Zeldin would have won!
not just NY every north east state + Maryland & Delaware are in trouble with utility bills.not good for bottom line for the economy.would be a way to crash the economy before the mid terms.they would not do that,would the?
You forgot Commiefornia, the biggest offender!
You are welcome to come to Texas as it is unseasonably warm here; in the 80s. I hear Dallas is beautiful this time of year.
Move, or Get 18% of Your Runaways to Move Back.!!!
Absolutely correct. I live in the WNY region and our electric bills have just blown up. They are installing smart meters everywhere and can control the regulation of residential power much easier with them. The delivery costs of the energy are higher than the energy itself. And rising. Albany granted the electric companies another increase for this year. Natural gas is rising too because the production has been restricted so there is less to distribute.
People are raging mad but NYC and stolen elections are wreaking havoc on this state. Hochul is getting apiece of every increase to put towards her green deals and cover for the fact she can’t overtly raise taxes in her election year. It’s taxes without representation right here in the good old Empire State. Republican Party leaders are almost non existent in this state.
It’s a complete mess and locked down by democrats in almost every county and all the cities. Really going to be difficult to ever get this fixed here.
Thanks for your reply- you absolutely nailed it.
I am in the northernmost suburbs of NYC and we have been hit really hard by because of the Bolsheviks who have been running that hell
hole for so many years.
Now that the Commie Mandami is mayor our whole state is being wrecked as he has teamed up with his partner in crime our disgraceful Governor Hochul.
The NY GOP is worse than useless and I don’t have much hope for Blakeman- do you?
I am too old to move but soon may have no choice if we can’t afford heat and electric.
Well the feds need to find the fraud and hold accountable all the trash that’s ripped us off and eliminate sanctuary cities! That will help put us on equal footing! That’s the whole Northeast corridor, but I’m all for NY getting slapped first!
I think that probably 90% of our taxed dollars are stolen by or through the Government. (federal, state, town, SCHOOL DISTRICT)
A lot of your original price crunch was non-existent outside your area, so you do need to look inward for at least part of the reason.
You have that right! I support Trump too but the cost of living in NY has gotten to the point of no return! Even with rising wages we are barely surviving. If you don’t have little deductions at home, many now owe the federal govt, even after paying! Our local & county taxes have jumped up and every week we go to the store, prices have risen. Insurance across the board had major increases and deductibles nuts! Energy not included! By the time I actually get a chance out of here, I’ll be homeless hitching a ride!
My biggest tax by far is the PROPERTY TAX for the schools, town and county. Something has to be done to finance “education” especially from another source because Property tax is BS.
Look at the concept- you buy a house, pay it off and yet every year you have to pay this ridiculous tax that just keeps going up.
If you buy a car- you pay for it, you own it and that’s that. You don’t keep paying for it year after year.
We have been in our home for 40 years and the taxes have gone up exponentially. Luckily we get some exemptions, but it doesn’t change the fact that if I can’t pay the taxes the Government can take my house and property!
New York is really the worst in every way. When I listen to my relatives and friends who moved to Florida or Georgia, I am jealous. I thought maybe we could change things but I don’t see that happening in my lifetime.
i’m in deep blue Maryland, but we have homesteader property tax credit if under certain income.my county gives us a 20% discount if in same house 40 years.might be wise to see if NY has a program.
oh boy, petrol is gonna get even more expensive here in australia…
Don’t you export loads of energy to China? Do you have the capacity to increase production?
President Trump the ultimate world chess player.
Where will we find another so smart?
All this being done for us and the country.
Imagine another democrat administration. They would tax, spend and steal us into recession and bankruptcy.
That is just one of the reasons that I would gladly vote for Eric Trump for President.
A new positive development re Venezuelan oil: the U.S. and Venezuela just restored diplomatic relations. https://redstate.com/wardclark/2026/03/05/us-and-venezuela-restore-diplomatic-relations-in-new-major-breakthrough-n2199902
@Sundance
By chance, is Canada a purchaser of Chinese refined product?
No. Canada has a lot of refineries snd is the world’s fourth largest producer/exporter of oil, etc. How much of that goes to China, I don’t know, but given Canada’s cozy relationship there, I’d guess that they’ll be under a lot of pressure to help make up for China’s recent losses.
who coulda guessed this?
This means greater profits for Russian oil.
China is attempting to get into the DRAM market, which will eventually be used to corner and monopolize the market, meaning they’d have a strangle hold on any thing AI, Computer, IoT and Phone related – basically everything that defines the Information Age.
Halting their Energy supply delays this, and anything that delays that is a good thing.
Frankly, my knickers aren’t in much of a twist over that.
This is what Trump chess is all about. The bad guys get the screw job in so many different ways.
Trump hit Iran to see if China would step up and defend them. Now we know where China stands: they don’t want to f*ck with the U.S. All bluff this whole time.
It surely sucks to be CHINA 🇨🇳
Thank you, Sundance.
Can Trump invite China to escort tankers through the strait of hormuz?
PDJT has also give India the green light to purchase Russian oil again during the conflict…
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/trump-administration-issues-waiver-for-indian-refiners-to-purchase-russian-oil-101772768659430.html