This poll seems to align with the previous forecast predictions.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has spent a great deal of time in South Carolina over the past two weeks.  The result, he’s dropped from second to third place.  The more voters get to see DeSantis, the lower his in-state polling becomes.

DISCLAIMER – South Carolina is an open primary, vulnerable to Big Club shenanigans.

President Trump has a clear lead in the Palmetto state at 48% according to the latest Fox (Shaw Research) poll [DATA HERE]. Nikki Haley has entered first loser position at 14%, followed closely by Ron DeSantis at 13% and Tim Scott at 10%.

Candidate I Don’t Know (4%) is now ahead of Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson. While Gas Station Sushi is polling ahead of Doug Burgum, Larry Elder, Will Hurd and Francis Suarez

[Source]

At 48%, President Donald Trump is 16 points higher in the polls than he was when he won the South Carolina primary in 2016.

NATIONAL OUTLOOK – The latest Harvard Harris national poll [DATA HERE] shows Donald Trump beating Joe Biden 45% to 39%, which includes President Trump holding a massive 18-point advantage with independent voters 45% to 27%.

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Here’s a fun blast from the past.  Yesterday, someone mentioned S&H Green Shield stamps and the stuff we used to purchase with them.

Today, I was having a conversation about communicating old school with a person, and about how the generation soon to come will find new methods to avoid the censors and monitors.  I mentioned the Green Shield stamp reminder and we had a blast reminiscing about all the stuff we used them for.

I think just about every small appliance and cookware for my very first apartment was the result of using S&H Greenshield stamps.

So the conversation expands…. Date yourself.  How many of you remember them, and what did you use them for?

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The sanctions levied against Russia by the collective West have essentially failed.  There is inconvenience within Russia amid ordinary citizens for global and economic transactions, but most of the govt transactions have continued.

On the opposite side of the consequence coin, absent the ability to purchase consumer goods on the global market, Russian domestic consumer independence has grown dramatically.  There is more stuff being made and created inside Russia, for Russians to purchase, than ever before.

I cannot see how the Russian GDP doesn’t benefit from this in the long-term.

Then again, I don’t buy the official Western narrative about the “horrible” life inside Russia, because I talk to ordinary middle class Russians who seem to have found a way to organize life without too much disturbance.

Russia is actually a case study in the elimination of imports and the economic outcomes therein.

It doesn’t suck to be a consumer; average Russians are doing fine, and it seems to get better over time.  Ironically, give them a few more years of Western sanctions, and Russia could be a manufacturing powerhouse.  Russia is a big country with a lot of raw material resources.

UNITED NATIONS, July 12 (Reuters) – U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has proposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he extend a deal allowing the safe Black Sea export of grain from Ukraine in return for connecting a subsidiary of Russia’s agricultural bank to the SWIFT international payment system, sources told Reuters.

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The insurance crisis in Florida is hitting the middle-class family, working community and retirees on a fixed income directly.   Hundreds of thosands of residents have lost insurance coverage, and even more have seen policy premiums double.  It is not uncommon to find homeowners who are paying more for insurance than their actual mortgage payment.  Unfortunately, the situation is getting worse.

Farmers Insurance has notified the state they are pulling out of Florida, will not be writing any additional policies in the Sunshine state and when existing policies expire, they will not be renewed.  Home and auto policy rates have already doubled in many areas for many people.

The insurance situation is becoming more unstable by the day, and the future outlook seems even worse amid reports that even more companies are planning to exit.

FLORIDA – Another property insurer is dropping coverage in Florida.

Farmers Insurance will stop writing new business and not renew its existing “Farmers-branded” automobile, home and umbrella policies in the Sunshine State, the company said Tuesday.

Last month, Farmers said it was only pausing new business in Florida. The company is also limiting new home policies in California, where it is based, according to news reports.

“This business decision was necessary to effectively manage risk exposure,” the company said in a statement.

The move will impact 30% of the company’s business in Florida, or roughly 100,000 policies. Policyholders affected by the decision are required to be given 120 days’ notice that their coverage will not be renewed.

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Both Joe Biden [VIDEO HERE] and Senator Chris Coons [VIDEO HERE] were interviewed as part of the Sunday talk circuit just before the upcoming NATO summit.  The message from both voices were similar as part of the larger geopolitical discussion, so I’m blending them into one review.

On the subject of Ukraine seeking NATO membership the key democrats gave the same explanation and justification, although Biden mumbled a little more alarmingly.  Biden, speaking to the Dept of State narrative engineers on CNN, noted there can be no discussion of Ukraine entering NATO as long as the war with Russia is ongoing.  From Biden’s perspective if NATO accepted Ukraine now, then all of NATO would immediately need to enter the war with Russia.

What Biden and Coons did not say was that if NATO opened the door to Ukraine now, the interests of Russia would immediately change.  If NATO was to make immediate announcements of Ukraine membership, Russia would be stupid not to expand the war immediately and begin the process of taking all of Ukraine instead of the eastern Russian speaking section bordering the homeland.

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I’ve said this before, and it really does deserve some emphasis today.  The professional republican political class, the entire industry that is financially dependent on the mechanics of republican politics, really do think the average American is dumb.   Don’t forget that.

Suffice to say we have people, contractors and vendors, who funnel information to us from behind enemy lines.  Nothing has made them angrier in the past several months that the article I wrote last night outlining the mindset in their conference room and specifically the brand image consultants around this recent exhibition.

…”Let’s put Mama Grizzlies, Duck Dynasty and Melania’s stilettos into the brand”…  Brilliant! 😂

I’m sorry, it’s not very polite of me to laugh uncontrollably thinking of a big mad Casey yelling at Ken Cuccinelli while Ron feels awkward – but I just cannot stop laughing.  “Curse you villain,” lol – life is too short not to keep snickering all day.

On a more serious note, the point of this article is to remind everyone the “professionals” in the GOPe consultant class really do think we are stupid.  That’s not a disposable generic line, it is really how they feel, and it exhibits in everything they do.  The modern republican consultancy has become a caricature of itself, and everything they do only makes the issue more transparent.

Dear Lord, please forgive my horrible trespasses, but it’s like Donald Trump threw them a bag of Chinese finger-traps and stupidly their team started to play with them just moments before the volleyball game broke out.  Team DeSantis is on the court with their hands stuck together, and the audience is in hysterics, me included.  Gawd, my ribs hurt.

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There’s a lot of background discussion about this latest issue created by Elon Musk signing a pledge to support the socialist (communist) economic enterprise systems under the control of the Chinese Communist Party.

Most of the current discussion is focused on the weak ideological ‘free-market and democratic’ commitment exhibited by Musk’s adherence to the rules and dictates of the Chinese state.  However, I’m staying far outside the esoteric and nuanced implication of this.  The reality is much simpler.

Elon Musk is in a dire financial situation; he cannot afford to be high-minded and ideologically connected to free-speech and free-enterprise right now (if he ever was).

The Musk empire is in a very weak financial position; these decisions made, while China is holding such financial leverage over him, are made without option.  Ironically, Twitter is banned in China. lolol

(Via Daily Mail) – […]  Elon Musk’s Tesla was the only foreign company in the lineup of 15 other automakers to sign the letter.  Part of Musk’s pledge was a promise to support China’s ‘core socialist values’ and bear ‘the heavy responsibility of maintaining steady growth.’ 

The automakers also agreed not to ‘exaggerate or use false publicity and disrupt fair competition with abnormal pricing,’ according to Bloomberg. 

China accounts for one third of Tesla’s annual sales, reports the FT. The communist country is Tesla’s second-largest market after the U.S. and the Shanghai plant is the electric car maker’s largest production hub. 

Yaqiu Wang, senior China researcher with Human Rights Watch, criticized Musk’s moves, telling the FT: ‘Failing to comply with ‘core socialist values’ has been frequently used by authorities to punish speeches that are critical of the Chinese government.’  (read more)

Once you strap onto the ride with the dragon, you don’t get off until the ride’s over.

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The Netherlanders are a rather dramatic sort, organizing their system of governance on coalitions of various shades that agree to high-minded pleasantries as a way to remain above the fray of pesky conflict.  Alas, once a moment of core and consequential disagreement reaches an impasse, the entire Dutch government is said to “collapse.”

The Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte traveled to Tunisa earlier this year, together with EU leaders, pledging €1 billion in assistance if the North African gatekeepers could just stop the flow.  The effort didn’t work, and his small country of 18 million, already dealing with major internal conflict driven by farmers and climate change, could not cope with the toxic political challenge of increased unlawful migration.

Associated Press – The ruling Dutch coalition collapsed Friday after tense talks among the four parties in Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s ruling bloc failed to broker a deal over ways to rein in migration, a senior politician said. 

Henk Kamp, a senior member of Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy told Dutch television: “It is a great shame that the government has now fallen.” The failure of months of talks on the thorny issue could now force a general election. 

Rutte’s Cabinet gathered late Friday in a hastily scheduled meeting. “We talked for a long time, we are coming here tonight because we did not succeed,” Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren told reporters as she walked into the Cabinet meeting.

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Earlier today President Trump kicked off a new coalition of Farmers for Trump in Council Bluffs, Iowa {Direct Rumble Link}.

While much of the first segment of the speech covers topics of significant importance to farming and agriculture, President Trump also expanded his remarks to cover current political events. WATCH:

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As if carrying Homeowners insurance in California and Florida wasn’t already subject to ridiculous increases in premiums, things are about to get a lot worse.

Effective with the July 1st notification, Reinsurance rates, these are companies who insure the insurance companies, are telling their clients there will be up to a 50% increase in cost for underwriting catastrophic coverage.  Perhaps claims in the past few years have been higher; however, I suspect the issue amid the reinsurers is partly connected to the issue that surrounds banks and bond rates.

Back when interest rates were near zero, banks and reinsurers likely scooped up lots of Treasuries and bonds. As the Federal Reserve hikes rates those bonds have declined in value. When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds start paying higher returns to investors, which makes the older bonds with lower rates less attractive/valuable. The result is that most banks, and I suspect big reinsurance houses, have some amount of unrealized losses on their books.

Whatever the reason, the big reinsurance companies are now telling the insurance carriers their catastrophe rates are going up as high as 50%.  Those insurance companies will then pass those rate hikes to the individual policy holders for commercial buildings, residential homes, cars, RV’s etc.  Bottom line, homeowner insurance rates are about to go up again with policy renewals, especially in Florida and California.

LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) – U.S. property catastrophe reinsurance rates rose by as much as 50% at a key July 1 renewal date, broker Gallagher Re said in a report on Monday, with states such as California and Florida increasingly hit by wildfires and hurricanes.

Reinsurers insure insurance companies, and have been raising rates in recent years because of steepening losses, which industry players put down in part to the impact of climate change. Higher reinsurance rates can affect the premiums which insurers charge to their customers.

U.S. reinsurance rates for policies which previously faced claims for natural catastrophes rose 30-50%, Gallagher Re said.

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