Some economic data released by the land of the rising sun points to a larger global weakness in manufacturing demand.   Within the data year-over-year exports from Japan fell in July by 0.3%, which is the first time since 2021 the contraction was noted.

Digging a little deeper, the weakness in Japanese exports is driven primarily by a decline in exports to China of 14.3% in July, which follows a 10.9% decline in June.  Japan is a component supplier to China, which would indicate the demand for Chinese products globally is substantially less than Beijing has previously admitted.

That said, Japan’s direct export of finished goods to the U.S. actually increased 13.5%, mostly driven by the export of electric vehicles.

However, 13.5% is identical to the overall decrease in Japanese imports.

Essentially, component parts to China are down, but completed finished goods to the U.S. are up.  Overall, the results from Japan point to a soft overall global economic status, the result of continued contraction of Western economic activity.

TOKYO, Aug 17 (Reuters) – Japan’s exports fell in July for the first time in nearly 2-1/2 years, dragged down by faltering demand for light oil and chip-making equipment, underlining concerns about a global recession as demand in key markets such as China weaken.

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Several people have made queries about the current state of our national economic condition against the backdrop of disconnected data points that seemingly conflict. Here’s my review.

July and August are key months to gauge the prior six months of U.S consumer positioning.

Why?

Because all advance purchase orders for the U.S. holiday season are made in May, June and July for inventory builds and delivery schedules for September.  The decisions made by purchasing officers in late spring and early summer, reflect their predictive analysis for the holiday season.

Inventories are evaluated, critical financial discussions are held, and orders are placed for September arrival and distribution.  This predictive activity is what we see in the July and August data that flows from the global, multinational and shipping corporations who facilitate the transfer of the goods.  Check what is happening in distribution, and you can see what eventually creates the boxcar effect in the supply chain that ultimately leads to shuttered manufacturing.

Those who are involved in the business of shipping goods are signaling the flares around the state of the consumer economy and what will happen.  At the same time, the wording is almost hilarious in this era of great pretending.  Instead of saying ordinary words like “poor sales results for durable goods,” the parseltongue calls sales, “destocking.”  Example:  “CEO Vincent Clerc said he saw no sign that the destocking which has curbed global trade activity would end this year.”

Global shipping company Maersk is warning that shipping volume is low because warehouse inventories are high.  The goods are unsold.

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I have been researching the MACRO economic dynamic in Russia quite deeply for the past six months.  Essentially looking to discover not only what impact the western imposed sanctions might be having, but more broadly looking to see what happens to self-sustainability when essentially locked out from the world of commercial imports.

The research is fascinating, not simply because it is a unique opportunity, but also because national economic issues play a big role in the overall social dynamic.  That said, I can say the social aspect is stunningly more interesting than the data driven outcomes.  When you really dig deep into actual life of the ordinary people in Russia, far away from the geopolitical contexts, you get an entirely different perspective.  My worldview of the average Russian person/family has completely changed.

There is a really good thread on how the western sanctions against Russia are having a much lesser impact than initially thought [SEE HERE].  On the economic side, one thing I would point to is how the economy is essentially an outcome of two facets: (1) the internal production strength, and (2) the service side of the ledger.

[READ HERE]

The author makes the accurate point that from a production side perspective, Russia actually has a larger economy now than Germany, the largest EU nation.  The cause for this is “autarchy” or self-sufficiency.  Indeed, as the timeline of the sanctions closes in on the second year completing, the Russian production economy is even stronger than when the sanctions began.  Quite simply, they are making even more of their own goods now.

The sanctions hit what would typically fall into the service side of the economy, as well as financial and economic roadblocks.  However, that aspect of the Russian economy was much smaller than most suspected and there were sanctions going back to 2014 which made the outcome of the 2022 western imposed restrictions less impactful.

I will be finishing my review of the economic data once Q3 is over, that will give me an entire year of data to share.  However, the social stuff is even more fascinating.

I have a new understanding of why former NSA contractor Edward Snowden was so comfortable using Russia as the place to hide after his release of classified intelligence showing how the U.S. government was spying on Americans via social media and metadata collection.

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Wow, does this message from Rush Limbaugh ring true today. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:

God Bless Him – We all miss Rush Limbaugh.

Before Donald Trump entered politics there was no home for people voting on the issues of a national economic agenda. Both Democrat and Republican candidates had essentially the same worldview on national economic policy because they are all getting money from the same multinational corporate trough.  However, President Trump changed that dynamic by presenting an alternative national economic policy called America-First.

For decades middle America was begging the McConnell’s, Ryans, Boehners, Romney’s, McCain’s, Bushes, et al, to make America-Fist economic policies their priority.  All of our shouts for help fell upon deaf political ears plugged by corporate donations and influence.  Our communities were literally collapsing around us (see rust belt), and yet no national politician would do anything of consequence.

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Collapse is never a sudden occurrence; it is an outcome of gradual erosion over time. A weakening that takes place almost invisible to those who pass through the construct, until eventually, at an uneventful time in the mechanics of history, the process gives way.

Fitch has joined with the prior position of Standard & Poors to downgrade the USA credit rating. The weight of debt, in combination with reverberations from the continued hammering deep inside the political fundamental change operation, has triggered another flare.

In the bigger picture, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by the latest focus on unsustainable economic policy, aka The Green New Deal. The efforts of the fiscal, monetary and economic policy are all aligned to shrink the U.S. economy, thereby creating the era of “sustainable energy” a possibility. Unfortunately, this is akin to a household intentionally shrinking their income while at the same time taking on credit card debt. The process itself is not sustainable.

(Reuters) – Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the U.S. government’s top credit rating, a move that drew an angry response from the White House and surprised investors, coming despite the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis two months ago.

Traders’ immediate response was to embark on a safe-haven push out of stocks and into government bonds and the dollar.

Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills.

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“Platitudes”, that’s the best word to describe what the DeSantis campaign previously claimed would be a substantive economic policy outline from the Florida governor.  As the policy was unveiled in New Hampshire yesterday, I watched it all {Direct Rumble Link Here} to see what it would cover and how DeSantis would deliver it.  Summary, major fail.

First, I must admit to coming to any economic policy outline as presented with a laser focus. You tell me you have an economic policy, and you have my full attention.  Why? Because the economic policy of a federal candidate will ultimately determine monetary policy, fiscal policy and foreign policy.  It is the only national policy we cannot affect from a local level, yet we are necessarily impacted by it and cannot avoid it.

MAGA starts with MAGAnomics.  So, to say I get into the weeds on this, would be a soft understatement.

Unfortunately, but not unexpectedly, what Ron DeSantis outlined yesterday was a series of 10-point meaningless platitudes.  If the UniParty policy teams of Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris got together over a weekend with Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, they would create a think-tank-driven UniParty economic policy outline very similar to what Ron DeSantis presented yesterday.

Platitudes, soundbites and structurally incoherent gibberish – presented with a word assembly that amounts to nothing.

“We will declare our economic independence from the failed elites that have orchestrated American decline, from the reckless federal spending that has inflated prices and plunged this nation to the brink of bankruptcy.”  ~ Ron DeSantis 7/31/23

Declare away doofus, you can declare all you want but it takes an actual set of targeted actions to move from declaration to outcome.  Those same “failed elites that have orchestrated American decline” are the same people financing your run for office.

I’m sure somewhere in a Pete Buttigieg kind of way, that soundbite might have seemed like a good sentence; but in reality, it’s gibberish and parseltongue.

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Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni sounds slightly less nationalist and slightly more globalist in this interview as she discusses the current challenges for Italy within the European Union.  With a large focus on the African continent, mostly driven by root cause illegal immigration, Prime Minister Meloni outlines how supporting the African economic needs are a pragmatic solution to the outflow of migrants. {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:

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The multilateral trade agreement known as the Transpacific Partnership (TPP), is a massive pacific rim trade agreement favored by Wall Street, the US Chamber of Commerce, Club for Growth, Ron DeSantis (voted to approve) and now candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

President Trump famously took the U.S. out of the TPP agreement around the same time he took us out of the Paris Climate Agreement.  As noted by President Trump and his economic team at the time, Free Trade Agreements (FTA’s) are beneficial to the USA when they are bilateral between the U.S. and another singular nation.  Multinational trade agreements end up serving the interests of the least common denominator nation and are detrimental in their finished outcome to U.S. consumers.

Wall Street loves multinational trade agreements because they provide greater flexibility for the profit opportunities of global corporations, multinational corporations and banks.  However, Main Street USA suffers from lost manufacturing jobs, lowered overall wages, and cheap imported durable goods that are an outcome of the lowest cost manufacturing priority.

During a Twitter spaces discussion yesterday presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said he was in favor of reengaging the U.S. in the TPP trade agreement.  This is a non-starter for any America First economic platform.

“I think we should re-enter it,” Ramaswamy said to Musk about 94 minutes into the conversation on Twitter. “I think this is a little bit different than what, you know, the course of action taken by Trump in exiting the TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership]. I think that was actually a poor decision.” (link)

This should be a disqualifying position for any consideration in the Trump administration.

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I have calloused hands and never hide my pride in my blue-collar, non-pretending, life.  I can say with certainty, the rustbelt is forever lost to the professional Republican Party. The GOP club, like the DNC club, is dead in the wake of the great MAGA insurgency.  Politicians representing the high-minded and pontificating professional Republican class will never again win an election in the rustbelt.

The collapse of the Republican Party in the rustbelt is entirely due to the professionally Republican politicians aligning with economic policies that destroyed the middle class within the region. This is MAGA country now; a place where pragmatic views and deliberate perspectives drive the outcomes of the voting electorate.  The era of hope and polite requests is over, and the voters are no longer going to put up with bullsh*t.   A recent Ohio poll is a strong indication of this:

[Source Data Here]

The approved and professional Republican Party candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has dropped into single digits in Ohio with less than 9% support.  Vivek Ramaswamy has jumped over DeSantis into first loser status with 12%, far behind the originator of the America First agenda, President Donald Trump with 64%.

♦ SEMI RELATED – Recently, after noting the CEO of Public Square bragging about the appointment of former Senator Kelly Loeffler (GA) to the Board of Directors, I asked the founder Michael Seifert if he knew what appointing the wife of NYSE owner Jeffrey Sprecher to the board indicates when contrast against the Wall Street corporate sellout of the working class PublicSq was promising to support.  Public Square founder Michael Seifert said, he “was not familiar” with the rustbelt.  Absorb that as you will.

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It’s too late.

After losing 12% of stock value, $16 billion in company worth, more than 25% of sales and dropping out of the #1 position for beer in the USA, Anheuser Busch CEO Brendan Whitworth finally announced, “Today we took the very difficult but necessary decision to eliminate a number of positions across our corporate organization.”

The effort is described by Oxygen Financial CEO Ted Jenkin as corporate speak, where “simplify and reduce layers” can be translated to “clean up the corporate mess,” make the shareholders happy and increase the stock price.  However, Anheuser Busch CEO Brendan Whitworth, a former CIA operative and woke corporate leader, waited too long and still doesn’t recognize the issue.

Stick a fork in Anheuser Busch and Bud Light, they’re done.

None of this was accidental or unforeseeable. Factually, former Budweiser Light Vice President of Marketing, Alissa Heinerscheid, told Anheuser Bush executives exactly what they were getting when they hired the Wharton business school graduate.  Her intent was to bring a new cultural wokeism into the company, and the cultural wokeism is exactly what the company wanted.

Anheuser Busch got exactly what they structurally set themselves up to require.  VP of Marketing, Alissa Heinerscheid, did not fail in her job – she delivered exactly what she was hired to generate.  The infection will not be removed or cured by firing approximately 400 corporate white-collars who executed the Heinerscheid vision for the company, because it was not her vision alone.

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