There are visible economic indicators today that positive U.S. MAGAnomic results are overwhelming the voices of purchased political leaders trying to sell a narrative of doom around President Trump’s tariff proposals and reciprocal trade reset. A key point is the U.S. stock market growth amid tariff, trade and NAFTA withdrawal discussion. As CTH has discussed the eventual trade outcomes appear baked into the latest market analysis.

Bolstered by election results showing increased momentum for team MAGA, and decreased likelihood for a Democrat wave, the overall economic news -and factual corporate bottom line results- are flooding the zone with optimism. Amid the strong foundation for U.S. investment and economic growth, the reciprocal trade strategy is no longer heavily feared. Simply put, the ‘America First’ policies are working.

Not only are Trump’s economic policies working (jobs, wages, investment growth), but they are gaining massive momentum as analysts begin to quantify the possibilities of expanded economic growth well beyond the -formerly outrageous- 3% GDP target. The ceiling is being raised faster than the winnamins can be digested.

Amid this U.S. MAGAnomic environment, threats of counter-tariffs by Mexico, Canada and the EU are as useless as feathers in a hurricane:

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The essential argument made by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during this interview was already addressed in the preview segment prior to broadcast – SEE HERE –  However, here is the full interview as broadcast on NBC Meet The Press with Chuck Todd.

The interview is a typical narrative engineering attempt by Chuck Toad; however, beyond the narrative, for those who pay close attention to the economic issues, there are some key elements which deserve attention:

• @04:05 Trudeau admits the problem with corporate transshipment of Chinese Steel into the U.S. market – through Canada via the NAFTA loophole.  While Justin from Canada frames the issue from their own national efforts to stop the practice, you’ll note how he avoids taking ownership…. it’s called ‘willful blindness‘.
• More importantly at @08:17 the topic of NAFTA surfaces. Pay close attention.  Not only does Trudeau speak in past tense (reinforcing the reality that all parties have accepted that NAFTA is essentially dead), but moments later @09:00 he admits the Canadian trade and manufacturing economy is set up as a brokerage (ie. multinational corporate investment) dependent, exclusively dependent, on access to the U.S. market.

WATCH:

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Once you see the strings on the marionettes, you can never go back to a time when you didn’t notice them.

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Buried in a Wall Street Journal article outlining their shock and horror over President Trump following through with a Phase-I trade penalty of $50 billion, you find the following quote from Captain Obvious at Cornell University:

“The Trump administration is clearly signaling, ahead of Wilbur Ross’s trip to Beijing, that the gloves are off given China’s unwillingness to agree to a trade deficit reduction target or to make broader trade concessions,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University professor of international trade. In addition, the “hardline stance may partly reflect the perception that China played a part in nearly derailing the Trump-Kim summit.” (link)

Gee, ya think?

The White House announced today it will clarify by June 15 a final list of $50 billion in imports from China that would be subject to tariffs of 25%, with the duties implemented “shortly thereafter.”  Additionally, future investment restrictions aimed at preventing Chinese acquisition of American technology will be announced by June 30.

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The MSM is insufferable in their intentional disconnect of the dynamic behind the North Korean denuclearization talks.  It was Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping who brought the DPRK to the table; and it was Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping who pushed North Korea away from the table in their manipulative efforts to extract trade concessions. Every other review of the geopolitical gamesmanship is chaff and countermeasures.

U.S. President Trump is holding massive steel and aluminum tariffs as an economic sword of Damocles over the head of Beijing during ongoing trade negotiations.  Chairman Xi sought to increase his own leverage by pulling North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un away from bilateral peace and denuclearization talks.  However, POTUS Trump responded to the Beijing power-play by announcing a Section 232 trade review over the entire auto-industry; and then bolstered his counter-move by cancelling talks with Kim Jong-un.

Red Dragon didn’t expect President Trump to respond so effectively to the customary schemes notoriously famous in any Chinese negotiation encounter. I really believe Chairman Xi underestimates how adept POTUS Trump is at cutting through the obfuscation and obtuse moves.

President Trump simply doesn’t operate in the land of traditional diplomatic discomfort… he doesn’t have any inclination to play these insufferable games.

Within minutes of President Trump withdrawing from the June 12th summit, Beijing realized all of their trade leverage was just wiped out.  Playing deceptive panda isn’t going to work this time.

(Via AP) – North Korea says it is still willing to sit down for talks with the United States “at any time, at any format” after President Donald Trump abruptly canceled his planned summit with Kim Jong Un.

Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan issued a statement Friday saying North Korea is “willing to give the U.S. time and opportunities” to reconsider talks.

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Big picture move by President Trump today that has massive, and generally misinterpreted, ramifications for any trade deal with China, EU and most importantly NAFTA.

China is using U.S. nuclear negotiations with North Korea as leverage for more beneficial trade outcomes; the communist regime is in full manipulative dragon-mode. President Trump can see through the economic play and is dropping the Panda outreach.  Eagle-one now hits back at Chairman Xi for deploying such dangerous tactics.

If you have been following trade nuance, the Automobile Sector is one of the biggest points of contention within varying trade negotiations. In the NAFTA discussion the auto-sector, via rules of origin, runs at the heart of NAFTA’s fatal flaw.

The fatal flaw is the use of Asian, mostly Chinese, auto components within auto manufacturing. Mexico and Canada arguing to allow more Chinese auto parts in North American manufacturing; and President Trump demanding more North American parts for North American auto manufacturing.

Many U.S. Auto manufacturers have moved to Mexico to exploit the NAFTA loophole (fatal flaw). Vehicles assembled in Mexico use cheaper Chinese parts and are shipped into the U.S. without any tariff under NAFTA rules.

It didn’t take long before EU auto-manufacturers, mostly German, to begin taking the same approach. Albeit to a lesser extent, German auto companies also invested in building vehicles in Mexico/Canada for tariff-free transfer into the U.S. This works out great for Canada and Mexico auto-workers, but not for the U.S.

In essence, the auto-sector is representative of much of the manufacturing exploitation by multinational corporations beyond vehicle production. China has supported this approach because they produce the components for multiple sectors (furniture, appliances etc).

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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appears on Fox News Sunday for an interview with the insufferable swamp gatekeeper Chris Wallace.  The primary topic is China and the ongoing trade discussions.  However, look at the stone cold stare from Mnuchin at the very end when he points out that Wallace never even brought up the important Iran sanctions.  If looks could kill, Wallace would have spontaneously combusted.

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The White House has released a “Joint Statement of the United States and China Regarding Trade Consultations“:

“At the direction of President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping, on May 17 and 18, 2018, the United States and China engaged in constructive consultations regarding trade in Washington, D.C. The United States delegation included Secretary of the Treasury Steven T. Mnuchin, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur L. Ross, and United States Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer. The Chinese delegation was led by State Council Vice Premier Liu He, Special Envoy of President Xi.”

“There was a consensus on taking effective measures to substantially reduce the United States trade deficit in goods with China. To meet the growing consumption needs of the Chinese people and the need for high-quality economic development, China will significantly increase purchases of United States goods and services. This will help support growth and employment in the United States.”

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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sits down for an interview with the Deep State toll booth operator Chris Wallace.  Customary cost of admission, five shillings.

Secretary Pompeo briefly discussed the ISIS terror attack in France yesterday and expands upon the upcoming summit with North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un. Secretary Pompeo appears to have a more thorough understanding on the Trump Doctrine of using economics to achieve national security objectives than former Secretary Rex Tillerson.

The duplicitous toll booth operator won’t raise the barricade until Pompeo discusses the view of former CIA Director John Brennan.   Pompeo exits the narrative and beats Wallace over the head with MAGA common sense: “Brennan’s remarks are silly“, moving on…

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Today, after a briefing session between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his counterpart from South-Korea, Secretary Pompeo and Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha held a joint press conference.  Serious discussions with resolute heart.  WATCH:

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[Transcript] SECRETARY POMPEO: Good afternoon. It is my honor to welcome Foreign Minister Kang to Washington. It is important to meet with such a critical ally so early in my time as Secretary at this incredibly critical time as well. Our alliance with the Republic of Korea was forged in the crucible of war 65 years ago. Tens of thousands of Koreans and Americans sacrificed their lives in the pursuit of freedom for South Korea.

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Critical Update – Critical Update – Critical Update

Those who are watching the NAFTA negotiations must pay close attention to the activity in the past 36 hours.  There is a key video at the bottom.  First the backdrop:

As most are aware the NAFTA fatal flaw, the “loophole”, surrounds Mexico and Canada structuring their economic manufacturing policy -and trade deals- through the exploitation of a back-door into the U.S. Market. Understanding this key issue is paramount to understanding President Trump’s approach therein.

Remove the NAFTA “loophole” and there is no longer an incentive for U.S. manufacturers to locate their operations in Mexico or Canada. However, the removal of this loophole also means China, ASEAN nations and the EU lose the same incentive.

There have been hundreds of billions of previous investment by multinational corporations in Mexico and Canada.  Every dollar spent was intended to continue this exploitation.

Then came Trump.

In terms of investment size and scale of manufacturing, the auto-sector is perhaps the primary industry attempting to position themselves to avoid any reversal of the NAFTA scheme; and it is a self-interested economic scheme. In the short term there are billions at stake; in the longer term there are trillions within the equation.

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