Perhaps the mainstream media is starting to wake up.  NBC is now reporting that cross-border auto parts and food shipments may start being disrupted as the trucker vaccine mandate begins.  Approximately 60 to 75% of all U.S. truckers are not vaccinated.  The cross-border vaccine mandate for American truckers begins January 22nd as part of the Dept of Homeland Security protocol.

In October DHS announced:

…”beginning in early January 2022, DHS will require that all inbound foreign national travelers crossing U.S. land or ferry POEs – whether for essential or non-essential reasons – be fully vaccinated for COVID-19 and provide related proof of vaccination. This approach will provide ample time for essential travelers such as truckers, students, and healthcare workers to get vaccinated.” (link)

The Canadian trucker vaccine mandate began January 15th, the U.S. mandate begins this weekend, January 22nd.  Given the scale of out of season fresh fruit and vegetable shipments from South and Central America, as well as Mexico, we can anticipate serious issues in the food supply chain.  The NBC article highlights trade with Canada, but that’s miniscule when compared to the trade we get from Mexico.

(Via NBC) – […] The U.S. mandate, announced in October, requires all essential foreign travelers, including truck drivers, who cross U.S. land borders to be fully vaccinated. Essential nonresident travelers had been able to enter the U.S. during the pandemic regardless of their vaccination status, in part so as not to disrupt trade and to give them more time to get vaccinated.

The forthcoming mandate follows one that went into effect in Canada last week that prohibits unvaccinated truckers from crossing into Canada from the U.S.

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There are two merging inflection points set to hit the public in a few days.

The first, is a much faster collapse in credibility for those who are pushing the vaccine benefit narrative.  The second, the more widespread appearance of shortages for food and basic essentials.  These two broad narratives are going to merge. CTH will outline the issues as they predictably surface.  This outline focuses on the latter, the supply chain angle.

♦ The cross-border vaccination mandate protests by truckers are continuing in Canada and at areas near the U.S-Canada border.  The vaccine mandate for the Canadian side began on January 15th. The mandate for the U.S. truckers begins January 22nd.  Both groups are currently slow-rolling the protest in/around the border crossings.

A coordinated Trucker Protest on the Canadian side is scheduled for January 23rd {LINK}, coincidentally the same time as a protest rally in Washington DC by members of the healthcare industry.  It is not coincidental that retail executives in the grocery industry are starting to prepare people in Canada for major grocery shortages {LINK}.

CANADA – “[…] “Independent grocers are in a myriad of communities in this country where there is no other grocery store,” Sands said. “If those stores close, you’ve got a food security issue.”

Meanwhile, stores are also experiencing a shortage of goods stemming from supply chain issues, including a shortage of truckers, packaging and processing delays and the Canadian winter.

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This is crazy.  The Canadian government is saying someone made a mistake when they announced they were rescinding the vaccine mandate for cross border commercial truck drivers.  As of right NOW, the January 15th deadline is in place.  All truck drivers from the U.S. or Canada will have to prove their vaccinated status in order to cross the border.

CANADA – The federal government says that unvaccinated Canadian truckers will not be exempted from the new federal vaccine mandate for truck drivers coming into effect this weekend.

In a joint statement, Canada’s transportation, health, and public safety ministers said that Canada’s initial policy requiring truckers coming into Canada to be fully vaccinated, or face PCR testing and quarantine requirements, stands.

Despite the Canada Border Services Agency telling reporters on Wednesday that unvaccinated Canadian truck drivers arriving at the border would “remain exempt” from any testing or quarantine requirements, the government now says that information, provided by a spokesperson, was incorrect.

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Once you see the strings on the marionettes, you can never return to that time in the performance when you did not see them.  I have often repeated this phrase specifically as it pertains to political motives and the intents of the professionally republican, the DeceptiCons.

Late December, the New York Times reported {LINK} that South Dakota Senator John Thune, the heir apparent to Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, was considering retiring because the Trump influence, the MAGA base, was not in alignment with his corporate and Wall Street donor class worldview.

Those who have watched closely know Senator Mitch McConnell has positioned Senator Thune to take over in the Senate (zipper problems not withstanding).  The Machiavellian purpose of the positioning is to put Thune in place as a line of defense to protect the interest of the political establishment and the aligned Fourth Branch of Government.

Now, follow this sequence closely….

Yesterday, the New York Times announced that Thune was indeed going to run for reelection {LINK}. “Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the second-ranking Senate Republican, announced on Saturday that he would seek re-election, after an aggressive lobbying campaign by colleagues prompted him to put aside concerns about the future of his party and pursue a fourth term.”

Today, the usually invisible other Senator from South Dakota, Senator Mike Rounds, appears on ABC This Week with George Stephanopoulos, to undermine Donald Trump and say the former president “could be prosecuted” for his involvement in the J6 terrorist attack “if the DOJ has evidence.”

I am prompting the remarks from Mike Rounds below.  WATCH:

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Things that seem disconnected but aren’t.  The thirteen bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins show signs of vulnerability.  This outline explains why it is happening and how long it can be expected.

In the previous October, November and December warnings we emphasized preparation and counted down the 90-day window.  Now, as we enter the final two weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up and the larger public is starting to notice.   [NOTE: We nailed the timeline almost to the week]

Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area.  Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.

Initial food instability signs in the supply chain.  Things to look for: 

(1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically).

And/Or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivates of, or normally include, potatoes.

(2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey in the supermarket (last line of protein).

(3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products.

(4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings.

(5) The absence of non-seasonal products.

(6) Little to no price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain)

(7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type.

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I do not know how better to emphasize the points other than to be direct and brutally honest.  Sometimes you just have to call the baby ugly.  The window to prepare for the incoming crisis of our lifetime is now down to two weeks.  Hopefully, that is specific enough.

As we have discussed on these pages, the interventionist policies and regulations from the people creating the COVID response (writ large) have been fubar from the beginning. {Go Deep} When they shut down the restaurants and hospitality sector (2020 lockdowns), the advisors and bureaucrats triggered a cascading series of events inside the food supply chain {Go Deep}.

Every policy implementation since then has made matters worse {Go Deep}

Adding to the supply chain and inflation crisis, in about a week the vaccine mandate and subsequent commercial passport means 30,000 cross border truckers are about to get shut down from operating between the United States and Canada.

“70% of the 700 billion in trade between Canada and the US is moved by truck. This will have a dramatic effect on supplies and services reaching their destination and getting in the hands of those who need them. One needs to look no further than the recent UK fuel shortage, where the military had to be brought in to deliver fuel as a result of a lack of truck drivers. We are already seeing shortages, if these shortages reach critical levels on items such as fuel, food, blood, medicine or medical supplies, we will see real long-lasting damage.”

~ Mike Milliam, President of the Private Motor Truck Council of Canada

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The U.S. government does not operate in a vacuum without knowledge of what is happening and a solid perspective on what is likely to happen.  Whether they listen to the commonsense advisors, or whether the control officers intentionally keep counter positions away from the principle, is another matter; however, the officials generally know what is most likely to happen.

The White House put Port Envoy John D. Porcari, who is also intricately involved in the supply chain taskforce, on the podium today to discuss supply chain issues.   The full video of his remarks is posted below, but my spidey sense is telling me they know what we know, and they are starting to prepare for what will ultimately become impossible to ignore.  WATCH:

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It’s not just a port issue, as we have discussed on these pages, the interventionist policies and regulations from the people creating the COVID response (writ large) have been fubar from the beginning. {Go Deep} When they shut down the restaurants and hospitality sector (2020 lockdowns), the advisors and bureaucrats triggered a cascading series of events inside the food supply chain.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November job openings and turnover data today [DATA HERE] showing 370,000 workers quit their jobs in November bringing the quits rate now to 4.5 million people.

From the report, “Quits increased in several industries with the largest increases in accommodation and food services (+159,000); health care and social assistance (+52,000); and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+33,000).”

Over the 12 months ending in November 2021, hires totaled 74.5 million and separations totaled 68.7 million, yielding a net employment gain of 5.9 million for 2021. However, while the unemployment rate drops with fewer people working, the employment picture overall appears to be tenuous.

The FRED personal savings rate for Americans overall [DATA HERE] has been dropping rapidly since March 2021, the last federal COVID employment bailout injection. All of the federal assistance has created massive data skews in the savings rate, as federal subsidies gave an artificial boost to the U.S. savings rate.

It appears that the aggregate American worker is now using their savings, created by COVID bailouts, to offset the massive inflation created by the COVID bailouts.  The net result is a workforce going into negative savings each month as inflation driven expenses (energy, fuel, food) are higher than earnings.  This is an unsustainable situation.

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You might remember on October 13, 2021, Joe Biden delivered widely carried remarks about specific actions his administration was taking to increase operations at the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) and the Port of Long Beach (POLB).

Here we take a closer look at the claims since the original announcement, and then highlight the actual results from the ports.  The port operations are actually doing worse today than they were in October. They are less efficient, less productive and have offloaded less freight in November than they did in October.  The factual results are exactly the opposite of the administration claims.

The October 13, 2021, White House fact sheet is HERE, “announcing a series of public and private commitments to move more goods faster, and strengthen the resiliency of our supply chains, by moving towards 24/7 operations at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.”  On November 17, 2021, the White House gave an update, “Recent Progress at Our Ports: Moving Cargo and Filling Shelves” and claiming the increased hours of operations were delivering on the White House expectations of increased productivity and offloading capacity.

Throughout these past 11 weeks, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg have been claiming their supply chain task force has been successful in generating exceptional results and removing the backlog at the ports, specifically the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.  However, if we look at the actual records from both ports, we find exactly the opposite:

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Hopefully everyone has done their preparatory diligence and are well situated to assist their family, because prices on fast turn consumable goods (groceries) are now less than 30 days from entering exponential increase phase.  CTH has been counting down the days to impact as the contract terms of 30, 60 and 90 days have begun expiring.

The Wall Street Journal has seen the first pricing notification memo from Kraft-Heinz food group to the buying offices of major U.S. retailers.  Here’s how the WSJ presents it: “Kraft Heinz Co. told retailer customers that it would raise prices across many of its products including Jell-O pudding and Grey Poupon mustard, with some items going up as much as 20%, according to a memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal.”  VIDEO:

Keep in mind a few points:

(1) The outlined price increases noted are against current price terms and contracts.  Meaning, these are price increases from right now to the next fulfillment.  These are not inflation price increases which are compared to a year ago.  These are 5% to 20% increases from the current price right now.

(2) The price increases are not the final price increase.  This is the price of a contract today from the field to the distribution center.  The retailer also has additional price increases (transportation, energy, labor, etc) which they need to add to the wholesale price before you see the final price at retail (grocery store).

The final field to fork price is not yet known but will be higher than noted above.  We are only seeing the notifications from field, through processing and into warehousing and distribution.

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