New analysis of the long-term impact from Section 301 tariffs triggered by President Trump against China, shows just how consequential economic nationalism can become.
Our own analysis of U.S. consumer prices in 2019 showed that prices of imported goods actually declined despite the tariffs. A recent report from CPA takes a look at the impact to Chinese exports to the U.S. [SEE DATA HERE] Bottom line, the tariffs worked to reduce Chinese imports.
CPA – […] Since the Section 301 tariffs were imposed, the share of imports from China has steadily declined from 21.6% in 2017 the year prior to the tariffs to 16.5%, a decline of 5.1%. No other country has lost as much share of total U.S. import penetration over the past five years.
In terms of total import value, Mexico gained the most from the tariffs, adding $110.8 billion. Vietnam gained the second most in import value by $78.4 billion and by far gained the most of total share of U.S. imports. In 2017, Vietnam accounted for about 2% of U.S. imports at $46.5 billion. In 2022, the U.S. imported $127.5 billion in goods from Vietnam, and the share of the total nearly doubled to 3.9%. Other countries in Southeast Asia such as Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia all saw significant increases in their value of imports by the U.S. (read more)
With the leading opponent to President Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, not supporting tariffs on behalf of the multinationals and Club for Growth donors who stand behind him, it’s worth revisiting the actual outcome to American consumers to dispel the popular myths about tariffs raising prices here at home.
It was the Fourth Quarter of 2019…..
Right before the pandemic would hit a few months later, despite two years of doomsayer predictions from Wall Street’s professional punditry, all of them said Trump’s 2017 steel and aluminum tariffs on China, Canada and the EU would create massive inflation – it just wasn’t happening!
Overall, year-over-year inflation was hovering around 1.7 percent [Table-A BLS]; yup, that was our inflation rate. The rate in the latter half of 2019 was firmed up with less month-over-month fluctuation, and the rate basically remained consistent. [See Below] The U.S. economy was on a smooth glide path, strong, stable, and Main Street was growing with MAGAnomics at work.
A couple of important points. First, unleashing the energy sector to drive down overall costs to consumers, and industry outputs was a key part of President Trump’s America First MAGAnomic initiative. Lower energy prices help the worker economy, middle class and average American more than any other sector.
Which brings us to the second important point. Notice how food prices had very low year-over-year inflation – 0.5 percent. That is a combination of two key issues: low energy costs, and the fracturing of Big Ag’s hold on the farm production and the export dynamic:
(BLS) […] The index for food at home declined for the third month in a row, falling 0.2 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 0.7 percent in August as the index for eggs fell 2.6 percent. The index for fruits and vegetables, which rose in July, fell 0.5 percent in August; the index for fresh fruits declined 1.4 percent, but the index for fresh vegetables rose 0.4 percent. The index for cereals and bakery products fell 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.3 percent in July. (link)
For the previous twenty years, food prices had been increasingly controlled by Big Ag, and not by normal supply and demand. The commodity market became a ‘controlled market’. U.S. food outputs (farm production) was controlled and exported to keep the U.S. consumer paying optimal prices.
President Trump’s trade reset was disrupting this process. As farm products were less exported, the cost of the food in our supermarket became reconnected to a ‘more normal’ supply and demand cycle. Food prices dropped, and our pantry costs were lowered.
The Commerce Dept. then announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August 2019, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlighted retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year. These excellent results came on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.
The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July 2019, when Amazon held its two-day blowout Prime Day sale. (link)
Despite the efforts to remove and impeach President Trump, it did not look like middle class America was overly concerned about the noise coming from the pundits. Likely that’s because blue collar wages were higher, Main Street inflation was lower, and overall consumer confidence was strong. Yes, MAGAnomics was working.
Additionally, remember all those MSM hours and newspaper column inches where the professional financial pundits were claiming Trump’s tariffs were going to cause massive increases in prices of consumer goods?
Well, exactly the opposite happened [BLS report] Import prices were continuing to drop:
This was a really interesting dynamic that no one in the professional punditry would dare explain.
Donald Trump’s tariffs were targeted to specific sectors of imported products. [Steel, Aluminum, and a host of smaller sectors etc.] However, when the EU and China responded by devaluing their currency, that approach hit all products imported, not just the tariff goods.
Because the EU and China were driving up the value of the dollar, everything we were importing became cheaper. Not just imports from Europe and China, but actually imports from everywhere. All imports were entering the U.S. at substantially lower prices.
This meant when we imported products, we were also importing deflation.
This price result is exactly the opposite of what the economic experts and Wall Street pundits predicted back in 2017 and 2018 when they were pushing the rapid price increase narrative.
Because all the export dependent economies were reacting with such urgency to retain their access to the U.S. market, aggregate import prices were actually lower than they were when the Trump tariffs began:
[…] Prices for imports from China edged down 0.1 percent in August following decreases of 0.2 percent in both July and June. Import prices from China have not advanced on a monthly basis since ticking up 0.1 percent in May 2018. The price index for imports from China fell 1.6 percent for the year ended in August.
[…] Import prices from the European Union fell 0.2 percent in August and 0.3 percent over the past 12 months.
So yes, we know President Trump can save Social Security and Medicare by expanding the economy with his America First economic policy. We do not need to guess if it is possible or listen to pundits theorize about his approach being some random ‘catch phrase’ disconnected from reality. Yes folks, we have the receipts.
This was MAGAnomics at work, and this is entirely what created the middle class MAGA coalition. No other Republican candidate has this economic policy in their outlook, because all other candidates are purchased by the Wall Street multinationals.
America First MAGAnomics is unique to President Trump, because he is the only one independent enough to implement them.
That’s just the reality of the situation. They hate him for it…
Good, but it’s not enough.
Anything ‘Made in China’ does not last long, super-cheap quality, it breaks apart almost just looking at it.
We need MADE in the USA, fast fast fast !!!
We need him back to finish the job.
Heck to the Yeah!!
One of my favourite pictures of President Trump. The expressions on Mnuchin’s and Lighthizer’s faces were guileless. Genuine smiles I thought. That’s what satisfaction with a job well done looks like. I can only imagine President Trump’s was the same.
That’s one for the history books!
May there be many more such.
Please Almighty God🙏🏻
Amen.
I like this one as well.
Eye of the Storm.
Just brilliant, WSB!!
Glorious, no? Our sainted Abe, Michael Flynn and Steve Bannon. Wow! What a one second interval.
Oh, and PT…as calm as could ever be!!!!
He saw the photographer and the photographer saw him.
I had to double check to see if there was a 3rd finger salute.
YOU JUST CAN’T BEAT A MAN OF CONFIDENCE!!!!!!!
Keen observation, Betsy… Thanks.
And hopefully to reverse the 22nd Amendment. Completely unconstitutional to kneecap another branch of government, IMHO.
Either ALL are term-limited or none is.
And, make it NONE, please.
LOL!!! Indeed!!!!
That isn’t actually true. China makes goods of exceptional quality. Many Italian design houses can attest to that along with their billionaire customers. Cheap shop brands like Walmart, Dollar Tree and many others demand cheap made goods, so customers keep coming back for more. The west created the “Made in China” derogatory weight that hangs around China’s neck.
Were China to manufacture to quality standards, your Iphone would cost $4000, and your T Shirt $50. China only makes what people want.
No amount of propaganda can convince those Americans who have purchased from American or European companies making products in china that any of their products are quality. Quality products are made in the USA, Japan, Italy or other European countries, not china.
True. China has demonstrated ability to build to spec, or to specific price points, exactly as ordered by buyers.
Not true. Buyers don’t order poorly made products. Even the average chinese citizen does not want to buy low quality products. How many times have you read stories about evacuating people from buildings in china that sway or crack due to poor workmanship? Did those chinese builders build to spec? The communist ideology stifles free thinking, which is one of the reasons they steal ideas from other countries. Maybe one day, the chinese can achieve true freedom as God intended for all.
He said it out loud, today in case anyone didn’t catch it.
He was just about to tariff the EU, just like he had China, but then the China virus came in and sidetracked everything.
So, he would have reversed the exfiltration of wealth from the U.S. into the EU bringing it back here, and lowering prices even more.
And moving jobs back here, as a result.
Next term, reciprocal tarifs, what he called mirror tarifs the first term.
Destroying entirely the Multinational corporate gaming of the system, worldwide.
He really is laying it all out on the table, leaving it all on the field, this campaign, declaring all out WAR.
Donald Trump is the great disruptor: a person or thing that prevents something, especially a system, process, or event, from continuing as usual or as expected
Well, sure they hate him.
He cut off their kickbacks and bribes.
The real President Trump knew business and his financial team was exceptional. His economy was kicking butt and taking names. The illegitimate administration’s team are an assortment of amateurs, with no skills on running an economy.
Capitalism is not government running the economy.
CPA = Coalition for a Prosperous America
About the Coalition for a Prosperous America
We believe America can provide good jobs for workers, affordable goods for consumers, opportunities for farms and manufacturers and a clean environment without compromising our national sovereignty and security. The Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA) believes in working for a new and positive U.S. trade policy that delivers prosperity and security to America, its citizens, farms, factories and working people.
The CPA is a nonprofit organization representing the interests of 4.1 million households through our board and our members. To which include a diverse group to include Republicans, Democrats, Independents, Conservatives, and Liberals. We are an unrivaled coalition of manufacturing, agricultural, worker, consumer and citizen interests, working together to rebuild an America for ourselves, our children and our grandchildren.
Sounds suspiciously MAGA! 🤠
Unless you were asleep, things were much better. Different world better.
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/abraham_lincoln_101395
Its going to be hilarious to see those bowevils up on the debate stage putting forth thire old tired Uniparty, Garbage party economic policies in an attempt to refute President Trumps MAGAnomics. Come on , convince us it was all a dream and it didn’t really happen.
HA!!!! I just visualized that! Epic! And GHWB won’t be there to exclaim the beheading motion!
LOLOL!!!! What a time to be alive.
SD, you frequently note there are trillions and trillions of dollars at stake. In these mathematics, there are winners and losers. Winners in this case was the American consumer. Losers (rightfully so) were the multinationals. With all the deflation, lower prices, and more money in consumer pockets, is there an actual rough idea of how much the multinationals “lost” in a rather short period of time (we know they made a bunch back during the plandemic) and what they could anticipate losing had Trump “won” in 2020?
I’m curious why they don’t seem to have gone after Lighthizer seemingly at all. He was such a major figure in those efforts and would undoubtedly be in the same/similar position as before. Where is he now? Is he keeping his head down?
Lighthizer: Raise Tariffs on Everything Made in China
By Kenneth Rapoza
28 Jun 2023
https://prosperousamerica.org/lighthizer-raise-tariffs-on-everything-made-in-china
Lighthizer’s new book released 27 Jun 2023:
No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America’s Workers
While I was there, Amazon teased me with a FREE Kindle book. Interesting title:
The Economics of Discontent: From Failing Elites to The Rise of Populism
By Jean-Michel Paul
Format: Kindle Edition
Interesting, though not surprising.
Just a “Side Note” Vietnam and the USA are involved in Economic Activity, Comrades. Seems like the Military Activity back in the 60’s was also Economic of a different type. Is it “possible’ that the USA could Return to it’s Founders Image of US as a trading nation, avoiding foreign wars?
The NWO Wars of the 60’s to the present day seem unbeneficial to everyone involved. Time for a Change???
genearly.substack.com
If you recall, Trump traveled to each country in SE Asia and set up framework for direct trade agreements between those countries and the US. This was around the same time that the tariffs on China took effect. Trump wanted to give alternatives to US companies for cheap manufacturing besides China. It worked because you see a lot of goods today made in Vietnam.
That photograph of Lighthizer and Mnuchin grinning to President Trump is one of my favorite from PDJT’s first term in office. Those grins speak volumes!
Thank you, SD!
Another excellent report with abundant data points and explanation.
I believe part of the bigger picture is missing – from a long-term perspective.
The entire cast of elites have set us all up (intentionally, through hubris or shere stupidity) for a big fall.
PDJT was not part of the cabal. That is certain. He was always about fair trade.
BRICS+.
The larger issue is what happens when US gov’t securities (forex reserves) are no longer attractive for a sizable cross section of our trading partners.
We will be served notice this August where this is all headed.
Sundance has spoken of such things.
We know we are being set up.
Yes on the set-up end of things.
The geopolitical/economic aspect of the set-up is more complex and likely out of American control at this point.
The point I’m making is we have moved well beyond fair trade practices and into new territory/bigger challenges – we don’t control the countries/geographic areas gearing up to replace the financial/trade systems in place basically since the end of WWII.
Hopefully Navarro and Lighthizer will be available should President Trump get re-elected. Wilber is too old for another run. I initially thought Steve Mnuchin was an elitist however over time it became obvious he was on our side. I would welcome him back too. President Trump was given a lot of bad advice on who to select to work in his administration which cost him, however his trade/economic team may have been the best we ever had.
I also know I am NOT buying THINGS.
I wonder about the big increase in trade with Cambodia and Vietnam. How do we know that those countries are not just a subterfuge for Chinese products?
Do your research. Vietnam, since the end of the U.S. war with them, has been in shooting conflicts with China 2-3 times, IIRC?
China does NOT get along well with any of its neighbors, its a bully and the countries resent it.
U.S. actually gets along quite well with Vietnam, and while I haven’t researched Cambodia per se, I suspect they are not great allies of China, either.
This is true, but I can tell you that there are new housing….enclaves…in Vietnam that are for “Chinese only”. Signs posted at the guarded front gates.
Perhaps Epoch Times would consider an “in-depth” article on this, to make more folks aware of the reasons.
God Bless President Donald John Trump … and God Bless WeThePeople – Patriots … voting for President Donald John Trump !!!
ps … Greenville … how much trash did you have to pick up off the streets after 50+THOUSAND visited ?!?!!
Great Point!
Hey!!! China!!!
The idiot in the fake DC whitehouse has fixed it so that WeThePeople can’t afford to buy your crap … and the rest of the “green”world can’t either … enjoy.
“The Supreme Court’s ruling makes clear that it is discrimination to award and deny opportunities based on racial categories,” said Cory Liu, an attorney at Butler Snow LLP and a Harvard Law School alumni.
“Any employer who treats applicants differently based on race is guilty of violating our nation’s civil rights laws.”
Conservative advocacy groups believe the ruling could have a similarly wide reach across the private sector.
“Although this ruling applies specifically to college admissions, any ruling by the Supreme Court that reaffirms the fundamental idea that ours is a colorblind Constitution and a colorblind society should make those who would inject race into hiring decisions think twice,” said Jenny Beth Martin, honorary chair of Tea Party Patriots Action. Are we looking at ESG here? I hope so.
It also looks like Jack Ma’s Alibaba is going to the wall.
Russia, Russia, Russia. Clinton, Obama and puppet JoeBama no doubt we’re all on the Chinese payroll. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
One cannot imagine the hatred that a professional credentialed expert , especially the academic kind, can feel towards the person who proved him/her wrong in public.
Especially when that expert is lying.
MAGA 👊👊🇺🇸🇺🇸🙏🏻🙏🏻❤️❤️
He’s also the only President I am aware of who created an environment where the utility companies had to give us refunds for overpaying our utilities. At least the only one in my over half a century lifetime.
We were paying Obama rates and they had to create refunds for Trump rates.
And all because of massive deregulation and The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and his everything is on the table and drill baby drill policies.
Utility Energy Savings State By State – Tax Cuts And Jobs Act
By TaxConnections Admin
10 Jan 2019
https://www.taxconnections.com/taxblog/utility-energy-savings-state-by-state-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act
I just heard our electric is getting ready to get jacked up again.
And don’t forget what his Opportunity Zones did for America. Here is one sample of many:
“Amtrak (Baltimore, Virginia) — Amtrak is investing in a redevelopment of Baltimore’s Penn Station located in an Opportunity Zone created by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act:
Amtrak officials said Thursday they consider the redevelopment of Baltimore’s Penn Station to be “critical” and will continue to move forward on the project even as the railroad company suffers a major financial hit due to Covid-19.
Chairman Anthony Coscia said during a teleconference that Amtrak will likely lose $700 million in adjusted operating earnings due to the pandemic, and it’s possible the losses could be greater. Ridership has fallen 95% and Amtrak has temporarily suspended several of its routes while modifying others to deal with reduced demand. Prior to the onset of pandemic, Amtrak had been on track to break even for the first time ever.”
Amtrak was going to break even for the first time EVER.
GOP Tax Cuts Help Low Income Areas Across the Country
By John Kartch
8 Jul 2020
https://www.atr.org/opportunityzone
When Trump wins in 2024, he will reinstall the plan to resurrect the USA manufacturing base.
In addition to the prosperity it will bring to our country, national security will be most important.
Recalling a few of the ‘incidents’ that have occurred in U.S. History, I truly fear what those in the M.I.C. will do, to prevent PJDT from reaching his rightful return to the Presidency. I am not trying to present a ‘downer’; I just believe that those in power can NOT have him destroying their plans.
How much has our steel production increased?
The WSJ punditry on tariffs was some of the loudest screeching – it was like their ideology was under attack. They had no trouble with the selling out of America under ‘free trade’. Fakes they are at the WSJ.
Based upon my racist math skills, while it’s true China’s SHARE of imports to the US is 5.1% less, China’s VOLUME with the US is down almost 25%! No wonder China has sads.
In my lifetime, the view of monopolies has changed 180 degrees. It has went from avoidance of monopolies, even taught in grade school, to being a desirable object of creation for politicians. Politicians are largely funded by corporations or owners of corporations that operate at close to monopoly status. They donate money to get that last bit of advantage and control.
Yes, monopolies are favored now. We could use some trustbusting. Restore competition. No bailouts. Failure is an option.
The tariffs were very effective, which is why they had to be ended at all costs.
Communist China is not our friend. Neither are the China lovers in DC, corporate board rooms and Wall Street.
Sundance, the COC/RINO Uniparty do not care what we think. They will do whatever they want to make as much money as possible, regardless of the consequences to the peasants. The greed we’re seeing is pathological and suicidal. The roads and bridges will be held with only enough duct tape for the trucks to carry their foreign slave made junk and illegal drugs flooding across the borders.
Need to also add that out of necessity …. Capital was also starting to reverse it’s flow thanks to the need to make stuff and financial advantages created by President Trump … back into the US until President Trump’s impacts were halted by Sock Puppet JoeBama’s regime.
A double economic whammy……..
China imports declined 23.6%. And US consumer spending increased a whopping 21% during the same 2017 -2023 period.
And factor in the strong US Dollar against the major world currencies. No wonder China wants BRICS.
In my mind, this is the most important reason we have to get Donald J Trump back in the White House. For the richest people on the planet, this is the most urgent reason to keep him out of the White House. I hate those greedy goober heads because they think their trillions of dollars are more important than the economy that made them their first million. This is stupid in the first degree. Never undermine your real benefactor, which is a market economy. We can’t fix stupid, even coming from the top of our economic ladder. We will have to collect more ballots ahead of time and crush the goobers on election day.
Exporting jobs and manufacturing can be sometimes good for the consumer. If we look at this on a local scale you can see what I mean.
Big cities used to have large industrial manufacturing. They also have higher property and sales tax and workers demanding higher wages due to higher housing costs. So, small towns got into the game and found a willing work force with less wage demands, lower living costs, and less options for decent jobs. Outsourcing to suburbs and small towns became trendy.
After those small towns grew and prospered, jobs and manufacturing started moving to different states. Early eighties saw major upper mid-west companies move south for lower costs but at the expense of quality. I worked at Roper, who made ranges, refrigerators, lawn mowers and garden tractors in Kankakee Illinois when it was the largest employer in the city, until they slowly shut down and moved to Georgia, mainly due to encroaching Chicago area influences that made the products too expensive to sell.
When the consumer saw the improved product with lower pricing from the new source, they bought it. Quality did not always follow but sometimes quality improved. Cities and states and rural towns generally don’t fight about import export ratios and there aren’t specific tariffs. In China’s case it is unfair competition due to government managed wages and policies. If China were a truly open and free market their standard of living would eventually improve to the point where wages and cost of living tend to equalize with competitive markets which also require better quality.
In Japan products used to have a terrible reputation as junk. That improved along with price increases and today they compete very well with many American made goods.
“No other country has lost as much share of total U.S. import penetration over the past five years.”
Federalist 12 explains how American ports are the economic wealth of the nation. A population of American people, a prosperous population, as they were well schooled in the genius of the American form of government. Trump’s MAGA Trade Economics is as visionary as Alexander Hamilton explaining why the Federal Government’s operation of ports to facilitate revenue through trade tariffs makes common sense. Trump is today’s Alexander Hamilton talking radical ideas that make America Great, Again.
This is the real cause of the rise in US manufacturing plants that are being built….not bidens ‘inflation actions’:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-factory-building-boom-93dfb8f5?mod=djemalertNEWS