In the world of trade and tariffs every move, in every sector, is connected to every policy shift within those sectors.  You might remember on June 5th President Trump announced the reversal of seafood harvest limits within the fisheries connected to the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument. [Executive Order Here]

President Trump made the announcement during a visit to Maine to hear from the local fishing industry.  As a direct result of the executive order, the Northeast U.S. seafood industry, including lobster fisheries, stood to take significant competitive price advantage over their import competition.  That move set the stage for this:

USTR – United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and European Union Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan today announced agreement on a package of tariff reductions that will increase market access for hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. and EU exports. These tariff reductions are the first U.S.-EU negotiated reductions in duties in more than two decades.

Under the agreement, the EU will eliminate tariffs on imports of U.S. live and frozen lobster products. U.S. exports of these products to the EU were over $111 million in 2017. The EU will eliminate these tariffs on a Most Favored Nation (MFN) basis, retroactive to begin August 1, 2020. The EU tariffs will be eliminated for a period of five years and the European Commission will promptly initiate procedures aimed at making the tariff changes permanent.

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Keep an eye open for information related to President Trump shifting the economic dynamic in the late summer and fall as he takes a more intense approach toward those who have acted against U.S. interests.  One such example is a restart of 10% tariffs on Canadian aluminum effective August 16th.

WHITE HOUSE – […] The Secretary has now advised me that imports of non-alloyed unwrought aluminum from Canada, which accounted for 59 percent of total aluminum imports from Canada during June 2019 through May 2020, increased substantially in the twelve months following my decision to exclude, on a long-term basis, Canada from the tariff proclaimed in Proclamation 9704.

Imports of non-alloyed unwrought aluminum from Canada during June 2019 through May 2020 increased 87 percent compared to the prior twelve-month period and exceeded the volume of any full calendar year in the previous decade. Moreover, imports of these articles from Canada continue to increase, reaching in June of this year the highest level of any month since I decided to adjust imports of aluminum articles in Proclamation 9704.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July jobs report earlier this morning.  Overall during this phase of the economic recovery the U.S. added 1.8 million jobs in July, with strong recovery in: Leisure and Hospitality (+592k), Retail Trade (+258k) and professional and business services (+170k).  [Full Report Here]

Strong steady gains continue in manufacturing, construction and transportation as more businesses begin to re-open and provide products and services into an economy with strong underlying demand.  Durable goods inventories are low, those need to be replaced.

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Earlier today White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro discussed an initiative to lunch a new program spearheading new critical supply chains. The goal is to return manufacturing of pharmaceuticals, medicines and equipment back to America.

The White House provided the following outline:

SUPPORTING AMERICAN SUPPLY CHAINS: The Trump Administration is signing a Letter of Interest in support of a deal that will help ensure essential medicines are produced in America.

* The Trump Administration is signing a Letter of Interest supporting a deal to transform Kodak into a pharmaceutical company that can help produce essential medicines in the United States.
* When the deal is final, the CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) will use his delegated Defense Production Act (DPA) loan authority to provide a $765 million loan to launch Kodak Pharmaceuticals, which will create at least 360 jobs.

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Well done Team U.S.A.

This is a very significant trade development as it is the culmination of a lot background work and a trilateral trade alliance based on economic nationalism. The U.S, Japan and India have been working on the Indo-Pacific trade reset for several years.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Trump already sealed their component.  Now it appears India and the U.S. have reached terms. Very important. First, the report:

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India and the United States are closing in on a trade deal, India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said on Tuesday, after two years of negotiations.

“In the long term, I believe we have a quick trade deal which has some of the pending matters built up over the last couple of years, which we need to get out of the way quickly. We are almost there,” Goyal said at the U.S.-India Business Council’s India Ideas Summit, being conducted virtually.

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The media are reporting that Wilburine has been hospitalized with an undisclosed illness.  Fortunately, the media reports are optimistic.

WASHINGTON – Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, 82, went to a hospital in upstate New York on Friday night, sources told Fox News.

A Commerce Department spokesperson on Saturday confirmed to Fox News: “Secretary Ross has been admitted into the hospital for minor, non-coronavirus related issues. He is doing well and we anticipate his release soon.”

Two of the sources told Fox News that Ross was not feeling well on Friday evening and went to the hospital. One source said his illness is not related to COVID-19. (link)

Secretary Ross is one of the key architects, designing and executing President Trump’s economic and trade policy. He is an incredibly brilliant mind and has been an essential component throughout.  One of Ross’s primary responsibilities is organizing a restructured trade agreement with the EU.  Prayers for a speedy recovery.

For those paying close attention, it appears the background geopolitical economic cold-war between President Trump and China has intensified.   As a consequence, all U.S. entities who have cemented their affluence in a partnership with Beijing are now in a position of considerable risk.

The executive order signed yesterday by President Trump supports the liberty of Hong Kong yet accepts an unfortunate reality; a full communist movement to control HK is a foregone conclusion.

[…] I therefore determine that the situation with respect to Hong Kong, including recent actions taken by the PRC to fundamentally undermine Hong Kong’s autonomy, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. I hereby declare a national emergency with respect to that threat.

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When the broad outlines of the U.S-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement first appeared, we said it seemed clear presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) was aligned with the economic nationalism preferred by U.S. President Trump.

Yesterday that alignment was on full display as AMLO delivered a very strong endorsement for the respectful agreement between the two nations.  Unfortunately, the U.S. media will never report on these words of praise by President Lopez Obrador.

Transcript […] I also wanted to be here to thank people of the United States, its government, and thank you, President Trump for being increasingly respectful with our Mexican fellow men.

And to you, President Trump, I want to thank you for your understanding and the help you’ve given us in issues related to trade, commerce, oil, as well as your personal support for the acquisition of medical equipment that we needed urgently to treat our patients of COVID-19.

But what I mainly appreciate is that you have never sought to impose anything on us violating our sovereignty. Instead of the Monroe Doctrine, you have followed, in our case, the wise advice of the lustrous and prudent President George Washington who said, quote, “Nations should not take advantage of the unfortunate condition of other peoples.” End of quote.

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President Trump and the U.S. economic team have held a policy perspective that the World Trade Organization (WTO) is no longer a useful functioning body to mediate global trade issues.  At the center of that view are two issues:

First that WTO rules and regulations do not support American economic interests; and secondly, that WTO processes still provide China with favorable benefits as an “emerging nation” despite their scale. As a result the Trump administration has been positioning for a withdrawal from a dysfuctional WTO.

In an effort to keep the WTO intact, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has nominated a pro-Brexit/pro-America trade minister, Liam Fox, to become the next Director General.

(Via Fox News) – The British government on Wednesday announced that it was nominating former International Trade Secretary Liam Fox to head the World Trade Organization – selecting a strongly pro-Washington candidate at a time when the U.S. is debating quitting the trade body.

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U.S. President Donald Trump and visiting Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador are expected to deliver a joint statement at 6:30pm ET and take questions.

VIDEO and Transcript ADDED

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. (Applause.) Please. Thank you very much. Thank you. This evening, we are honored to welcome President López Obrador, the entire Mexican delegation, and many distinguished guests to a White House working dinner. We’ve been working all day, and we’ll be working for a little while longer. But it’s an honor to have you in the White House. Tonight’s gathering follows a productive day of meetings and concludes an exceptional visit, in which we made tremendous strides on behalf of our countries.

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