The axiom of “the law of unintended consequences” has never been more appropriate than right now. In the background, as you are reading, there is a looming storm that is going to soon surface in the food supply chain, and the regional vaccine passports are going to make things worse.
To understand what is happening, it becomes necessary to give a more specific background on how the things work inside the supply chain that has been disrupted by government intervention. This is complex, but I hope to make it understandable for the average person.
How do we avoid supply chain chaos? My response seems counterintuitive to those who do not understand this unique issue.
Effective immediately, or at least as soon as possible, every venue that can provide food on a commercial basis must be removed from all COVID regulations, including vaccine passports.
Restaurants, school lunchrooms, cafeterias, industrial kitchens, hotels, bars, food trucks and every possible venue for the delivery of freshly cooked meals must immediately be reactivated, and all terms and conditions for visiting those venues, like “vaccine passports”, must be cancelled quickly.
If they are not, and worse, if the restrictions expand beyond current status, there is going to be a worsening retail food crisis as the total food supply chain begins to collapse even further.
Beginning around 1990, the retail food industry, the supermarket and grocery business, began a process for automated replenishment. Walmart’s introduction into the grocery business was the trigger, as the massive internal supply chain created by the Arkansas company was the leading edge in growth and retail sales. Walmart began selling groceries, cheap groceries, by using their supply chain efficiencies to undercut prices within the retail food industry. It was a seismic change.
Soon other regional supermarket chains began to modify their ordering, purchasing and buying offices to add inventory efficiencies into their operational systems. If they did not adapt their inventory management, they would lose competitive price position.
As years passed, technology in the inventory management system became more and more important, as the thin margins inside the retail supermarket system looked to capitalize on automated replenishment. This is the beginning of “Just in Time” inventory within the retail food distribution network.
Computers began to make forecasts for products and shelves were replenished through a complex system of automated orders. Years of multi-SKU data was assembled to create forecasts for future orders.
Instead of clerks, managers and supermarket operators ordering products from store level, slowly those same people became responsible for only recording the amount of an existing item currently on the shelf. The computer algorithm -filled with historic data on consumer purchasing- would forecast the need and place the order. This system formed the cornerstone of automated replenishment, as computers told the buying offices how much of every item would be needed, and when.
Billions were invested by the industry, as a whole, to develop this complex replenishment system. Within the process of just in time ordering (JIT), slowly computers replaced humans in the ordering process. Retail stores no longer housed massive amounts of inventory. Warehouses that feed the stores no longer housed massive amounts of inventory awaiting the orders from the stores. Warehouses even changed their terminology to “retail distribution centers“, as they became hubs for distribution and not holding centers for inventory.
Years and years of refinements to this process continued as the computers learned in ever more granular detail how to trigger replenishment orders based on checkout scan data. Tens-of-millions continued to be invested in the latest tech software and scanning systems that would thin down the supply chain at each step.
In essence, the timeline from field to fork was also being reduced, as the total food supply chain inventory management system refined each year becoming more and more efficient at recognizing purchasing patterns and predicting sales.
The value inventory efficiency to the industry was great.
The cost of excess inventory to support sales was reduced, and the efficiencies of the Walmart purchasing, and supply chain excellence was being duplicated in every retailer.
Without excess inventory, the value of store inventory counted as “days on hand” was also reduced. This meant more profits for the retail outlets, as the overhead cost of their inventory was lowered.
Companies passed along these supply chain efficiencies in the form of lower prices to the consumer. This was, in very direct measures, the Walmart influence in the retail food supply industry. All regional supermarket chains were duplicating the Walmart supply chain excellence, and that allowed them to compete on price.
Eventually, what was once seen as a Walmart competitive advantage, became an industry-wide way of doing business. The retail food supply chain for grocery outlets was structurally and permanently changed. Every retail outlet was/is using some form of just-in-time inventory management with automated replenishment based on computer forecasts for purchasing needs. However, there is a downside…. less inventory in the total system means less capacity to deal with increased demand.
This supply chain system is best understood in reverse:
♦ The data from retail scanned sales is shared backwards into the supply chains, with retail grocery stores sharing their scan data with suppliers. The suppliers like Kraft foods then know exactly how much anticipated product is needed, by which retailers, where and when.
♦ The suppliers and manufacturers then share that information backwards into the food processing sector. The processors of raw material food now know what products are needed by the branded suppliers.
♦ The processors then share that information backwards in the supply chain to their raw material providers. Those are the protein conglomerates and farming groups. This is also where Big Ag makes import/export decisions and controls the prices for their own profitability.
The contracted commercial farmers, cattlemen, fishermen etc., all know -or are instructed- roughly what crops, pork, beef, chickens, poultry, etc. will be needed in the following season to provide to the processors, who provide to the manufacturers, who provide to the suppliers, who provide to the distribution centers, who provide to the retail stores. This is the complex system known as the retail food supply chain.
As you can see from above, this complex inventory management system originates with historic data from the stores and travels throughout the supply chain providing users at each step to assemble the data that pertains to their role. This is like thousands of interconnected gears in a finely tuned machine, and this is NOT a system that can be interrupted without consequence.
CTH warned in March 2020 [LINK HERE], when government first suggested that all retail food establishments (restaurants, lunchrooms, hotels, cafeterias, etc.) should shut down due to the pandemic, that closing 60% of fresh food distribution would be catastrophic for the total food supply chain.
“A government cannot just shut down 30 to 50 percent of the way civil society feeds themselves, without planning and advanced preparation for an alternative. Those who ARE the alternative, the retail food grocers, need time to prepare themselves (and their entire logistical system) for the incredible impact. Without preparation this is a man-made crisis about to get a lot worse.” (LINK)
Those decisions in 2020 triggered a cascading sequence of events that has yet to be fully understood. {Go Deep}
For 30+ years, the highly complex and data driven retail food supply chain, the delivery vehicle for 40+ percent of total food available, has become increasingly refined. Unfortunately, like a finely tuned watch, those refinements also mean the supply chain is vulnerable to unforeseen changes in the system.
The government upended the total food supply system by shifting 25 to 40% more customers into the retail grocery supply chain for their food. The supply chain we just explained cannot handle that level of stress. Operational capacities are reached very quickly throughout the system, and even the packaging of increased demand is an issue. Suppliers for packaging also have capacity constraints.
Processors cannot process enough. Manufacturers cannot manufacture enough. Suppliers cannot supply enough. Distribution centers cannot distribute enough, and stores cannot stock enough.
The entire food delivery system is not designed for this and cannot reasonably be expected to adjust on this scale; it is just not feasible. We are seeing the cascading results of this in our supermarkets right now. People are starting to worry, and there is good reason to worry. {Go Deep}
This is where the vaccine mandate and mandatory vaccine passports make things worse. Even a small amount of excess demand right now is causing exponential problems for a system that is already beyond capacity. The system stressors, specifically the demand side, need to be reduced.
If just 10% of a population, within a metropolitan region of consumers, are blocked from restaurants or food venues because they are unvaccinated, they are going to put stress on the alternative, the grocery supply chain…. meaning, more empty shelves and cases. Those empty shelves impact the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.
Restricting restaurant capacity, shutting food venues, closing school lunchrooms, shutting or restricting cafeterias or hotels, blocking venue access by vaccine restrictions, all of these have damaging unintended consequences to the food delivery system. We need every possible fresh food delivery system open for everyone…. and that needs to happen quickly.
Additionally, the trucker vaccine mandate -scheduled to go into effect for domestic freight haulers on January 22nd- needs to be cancelled fast.
If these mandates, COVID restrictions, passports and gateways continue as blocks in the system, it is very likely the shortages in the food supply chain will only worsen.
It is only going to take a few visits of worsening empty shelves before “national food security” panic becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
MASSACHUSETTS – BOSTON — Vaccinated state residents are now able to access a digital record of their COVID-19 vaccine history, including a scannable QR code, that could be stored on their smartphone and presented to businesses requiring immunizations for entry.
Gov. Charlie Baker’s administration is rolling out the “COVID-19 SMART Health Care” just as the city of Boston prepares for a new vaccine requirement to take effect at the end of the week in all restaurants, gyms and entertainment venues.
Boston is one of the few cities in the state to adopt a universal vaccine requirement for certain businesses. (read more)
Thank you for explaining JIT in more detail than I could, in comments.
Two points to emphasize, and they apply to all JIT systems;
JIT trades the durability inherent in redundancy, for efficiency.
The old, analogue systems, a manufacturer of a processed food product had SEVERAL suppliers for each aspect of the product, say packaging.
They would bounce their orders back and forth, competition would keep price low, and yet keep both in business.
With JIT, there is ONE supplier, and their production schedules, like every entity in the supply chain, are dictated by AI.
Suppose the packaging manufacturers plant catches fire, and burns down? Now they have to scramble, to try to find another company with the capacity to meet the demand, at WHATEVER price, because the REST of the supply chain, it keeps on rolling, from raw materials up to the roadblock.
And just beyond the roadblock, supply is quickly consumed. But, once production starts again, one would think the buildup upstream of the block, could quickly fill the downstream void, but one would be wrong.
We saw it with TP, where there were “fits and starts” for months. This is because the AI automation in the system, learns by doing, and past history; it has no programming to deal with novel situations occuring on short notice, hence the TP debacle.
A sudden large change in demand, either an increase or a decrease, it is totally unprepared to deal with.
It takes HUMANS to address the unexpected, but humans have largely been taken out of the equation.
Which was my second point. Cascading collapse with one problem leading to six, and each of THOSE problems leading to six more, etc. is what we are looking at. Think 3 mile island, which all started because one guage was or wasn’t reading correctly.
And yes, vax mandates feed into this cascade. And whether the Brandonites are doing this on purpose, or because the whole bunch altogether are dummer than a bag of rocks (or BOTH) they are NOT gonna want to ‘back down’ and admit their error, and instead will do brainless narrative building, like Buttgieg just did, move the ships out of sight, and declare you saved Christmas.
Ty Dutchman….
Our JIT Vendor Managed Inventory ( a Manufacturing Distributor to OEMs/End Users) was effectively shut off mid 2021.
Every order became an “EXPEDITE”.
Stock Orders would arrive unexpectedly in large drops that non-warehouse workers were pulled in to help process.
This inventory would immediately be dispersed to existing back orders bringing the “STOCK” back to zero.
Now the EXPEDITE process has been shut-down completely and estimated delivery times for virtually all products is greater than 100 days and climbing.
Additionally vendors have unexpectedly announced price increases, in some cases multiple times.
Normally these are “ANNUAL PRICE ADJUSTMENTS”.
One example of the ripple effect of closing the restaurants
I call on a large manufacturer of dish detergent (you would recognize as being Pretty & Good). They are trying to complete a $10 M plant expansion because when 60% of the eat out consumers suddenly has to eat at home they dirty up a lot of dishes.
Shortages on many things on the horizon.
Glad you said that. I haven’t bought any extra
Stock up!
Dollar Stores can be a good source.
Agreed! Sundance highlights the food supply chain because, well, it’s food. It’s not a voluntary purchase that can be appreciably delayed. But JIT is not just the norm in the food supply industry. Manufacturers of durable goods have for decades relied on a complex supply chain infrastructure.
Have you attempted to buy an automobile, lately?
thanks for the expertise. it’s a good thing we have a strong team leading us.
oh wait.
Interesting but the same amount of people are eating (more or less), it just shifted from restaurants to at-home. It seems to me there should be a crapload of excess capacity for restaurant supply that is sitting idle, no?
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/global-economy-heading-mother-all-supply-chain-shocks-china-locks-down-ports
Dutchman, you’ve also effectively described programmed stock & options trading there.
And airline replacement parts…
startrek scotty: “the more they overthink the plumbing, the easier to stop up the drain”
According to a car dealer we know, there was a fire at THE chip manufacturer in Taiwan that powers new vehicle computers. That’s why none on the lots.
If only we had our own manufacturers, plural, here.
I hate QR codes, they are everywhere and on everything, never thought I would miss the days of bar codes. I remember when they first came about. I remember paper inventory by hand.
Another unknown snow storm is coming and w/the pre-order online and deliver to your car system Sam’s Club couldn’t keep up w/the orders. Over 186 orders were placed overnight, they had to be ordered by 1am in order for today’s pick up. When I went at 6pm they had not had the chance to fill my order of 6 items. I interacted w/two employees and both of them were stressed to the max. I am glad I wasn’t in a hurry and had the time to sit and wait around, others in the lot were not so understanding, after all the purpose of online and delivery to your car is supposed to be efficient and save you from the Rona.
The good news is both Wal-Nut and Sam’s have canned cat food for the moment. I am sure lots of kitties will be happy and their owners will be happy.
Anyway, excellent splainin’ of things to make it understandable. It really is all FUBAR’d. We aren’t in America anymore.
No canned cat food in a Walmart I was in yesterday in RI. No dog pads either. Variety of King Arthur flour almost non-existent. Other brands of flours stocked. Spoke to a Frito-Lay supplier in the store who informed me the manufacturer can’t get source raw food material to manufacture these products(Fritos, Doritos and Tostitos). He warns when the present supply dwindles the junk food isle will be bare. I know it is only junk food, and perhaps the raw materials are being diverted to more nutritious food manufacturing??
We haven’t been able to find Cheetos for 6 weeks, completely ruining my high schooler’s homework experience
south sudan is saddened.
Popcorn! More nutrition and easy to add flavor with parmesan cheese. Cheaper, too.
Chewy dot com: Just received another shipment of canned cat food with zero delays. How those folks do it, I do not know … but stock outages are (so far) rare with Chewy.
An example of the failures of JIT to adapt was the automakers.
When the nations were shutdown in early ’20, car sales stopped, so the automakers told their Tier 1 suppliers to slow and/or stop shipments. This went down the chain.
Eventually, it hit the chip makers.
Now, here’s the rub. The chip makers were already running at near capacity and they had more customers than supply, so they simply reallocated their production to other customers.
Once the automakers realized their over reaction.. sometime in early summer of ’20 they tried to restart their Tier 1 deliveries… but guess what? Their supply chains no longer could get the parts they needed.
JIT has two fundamental problems, you see, it supposes that the supply chain can be restarted at any point in the supply chain, AND, it does not plan for inventory build up to allow for hiccups.
We already saw that with the Japan Quake and the tsunami in SE Asia years ago. Automobile production came to a standstill.
You’d figure those MBAs would have learned their lesson, but nooo, I guess they got jobs working for the Democrats.
What the automakers should have done was to build up their stock in early ’20, for a just in case situation.. but letting Wall Street running Main Street causes these issues.
I think you overlooked a third fundamental problem with JIT: It assumes stable predictability in the entire value chain, from raw material production to end user. That is, demand might fluctuate, but it will do so within predictable bounds.
A great explanation…as well as a great illustration of how, once things become centralized and automated, they are far easier to control, disrupt, etc. Once again, we need to remember that the entire purpose of ‘build back better’, or the ‘great reset’ is to totally destroy life/society/economy as it is now, in order to ‘build’ a new one. And we are watching this happen, in real time.
People seem to forget that WE are the ones that hold the power, if we decide to use it. If you want this current situation to stop, then STOP COMPLYING with a centralized, controllable system. Stop complying with vaccine mandates. On the food issue, decentralize your food supply by buying locally available items.
Farmers Markets.
Not immune to the madness, I’m afraid. Last month in New Brunswick (small eastern province of Canada) the government allowed grocery stores to implement vaccination requirements as a condition of entry, and this included farmers markets. The farmers market in the capital city of Fredericton promptly jumped on board and announced that vax passes would be required for entry. Their thinly veiled excuse was that they had a cafe inside, so they could once again offer sit-down dining at their cafe by requiring the pass.
The government backed down about a week, week and a half, later, after significant outcry, including at least one threat to take them to court, and rescinded the order, putting grocers back on the “no vax pass” list.
For now.
Don’t think they won’t try it again if they feel they must. NB is going back into full lockdown today, following its stupid francophone neighbour Quebec.
“Centralized and automated”, yes … but do not overlook the effect of MBAs who run businesses to maximize quarterly profits and thus their bonuses. That metric has taken quality, depth, and variety out of the product lines of many large corporations – and replaced it with wokeness, which the 30-somethings in suits believe will increase sales and profits.
Oh it’s always about the money, every. single. time…
Whenever I have engaged in vegetable gardening I’ve always produced far more than I have needed even in a cold climate with a short growing season. And there are any number of edible plants that grow wild. Thinking in those terms, of self-sufficiency for providing food directly, shortens the supply chain immensely, as opposed to relying on trans-national “protein conglomerates”. This was an excellent concise description of the supply chain but I came away thinking of the axiom, increasing complexity is the classic sign of a deteriorating paradigm, market efficiencies notwithstanding. It would take only a minor shock to disrupt it and it is inconceivable that the consequences we are seeing now are unintended
Many cities permit folks to have a small flock of hens. And many cities have municipal gardens for people to raise vegetables for their families.
soon they will have to hire security for the community gardens.
“The axiom of “the law of unintended consequences” has never been more appropriate than right now.”
Unintended consequences, SD? On the contrary, the Uniparty is exhibiting unabashed intentionality at shifting food dependence/distribution under a central planning rubric wherein (increasingly meager) supplies will be doled out on the basis of state fealty and good behavior. Disrupted logistics will be good for the business of tyranny.
The market share battle is between the State and the Middle Economy. The former wants to usurp the latter as the preeminent ‘jobs creator’ in America. Of course the former’s notion of employment is UBI coffee vouchers and curtailed economic vigor.
The DNC is poised to become our CCP. The Red/Bue shellgame has served them well.
The Rule of Law is not going to overcome this Bolshevik onslaught. If the Dems don’t like the pre-election polls (and clearly they won’t), elections will be quaratined or suspended. American self-determinaton has been handed off to media stupefaction. The Right is eating popcorn through the spectacle of its own demise, having reconciled its very real future into a horror and suspense movie. Nothing’s going to happen because happening has been reduced to watching. I think Catherine Austin Fitts calls it entrancement. Watching is as real as real gets.
We are in The Great Reset. This is it and it is ever evolving. All planned for the destruction of our Republic and a transformation to One World Governance.
Yep.
remember cash Friday………….. CAF
Should be mandatory reading on the House floor and Senate well.
They can read?
Yeah, but they can’t think.
They don’t care.
I see where this all leading while they bang the war drum with Russia. Prepare accordingly.
Maybe that’s the reason for the security barrier around 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Hungry people are angry people.
Also, the Taliban threatening to send 2000 suicide bombers to DC if we send Marines to guard our embassy in Kabul. The situation is dire when you read that news and immediately start thinking about whether it would be good or bad.
Somewhere, war is imminent. With all the problems SlowJoe has, they will think a war will distract. It’s coming and could be a surprise as to location.
My Navy hubby was just recalled early from his leave, and may be deployed to that area. I am very worried. FJB!
We are going down and that is the intent.
There is nothing unintended about it. You must understand, and this is NOT hyperbole: We are in a war. A World War. And the enemy knows EXACTLY what it’s doing.
We have seen the enemy, and it is us-
Pogo
Recently, my internet searches have turned up with Cyrillic letters. Especially maps. So wierd to look at a map of Texas with all cities listed in Cyrillic – WTH?
Just got this email from Harris Teeters; I shop there on Fridays and we are expecting snow storm Sunday…by Monday I bet there will be nothing on the shelves:
Dear e-VIC customer,
Harris Teeter is committed to making sure our shoppers get the best quality products and great values. As part of that initiative, we send you emails every Friday, offering e-VIC specials to thank you for being loyal Harris Teeter shoppers.
As we all know, we are living in unprecedented times when it comes to supplying our stores. Challenges with the supply chain have caused major disruptions in our operations. Our vendor partners are also experiencing delivery and staffing challenges, which results in a significant cut in product availability for stores. Even unpredictable weather has made an impact, with winter storms disrupting and delaying product shipments to distribution centers and stores.
Because of this, we will not offer any e-VIC specials this Friday. We’re hopeful that we’ll be able to send out Friday e-VIC offers next Friday, January 21st.
Harris Teeter wants to thank you for being a loyal shopper and we look forward to continuing to serve our communities and making Harris Teeter an Incredible Place to Work and Shop.
As always Sundance, you did a fabulous job at explaining the very complex workings of the supply chain. Thank-you.
My wife and I have seen this coming since our RINO Governor DeWine did that. We have been stalking up ever since. Fortunately for us, we live in an area of Ohio that is farm country, and this will not affect us as much as it will in the big city areas….Get prepared folks, stock up and Get “PRAYED UP”. We have no idea just how far those MORONS are going to sink this ship….
Unintended consequences? I think it is the plan. How better to sell the sheeple the great reset plan? Oh government, please help us. We are sick and starving. The sheeple have been lining up for the kill shots, wearing masks and keeping their distance from one another. I thought people were smarter than that. I was wrong. Compliance implies consent. Sadly, there is still no cure for stupidity.
Thank you once again SD for the excellent explanation. I am amazed at all the expertise in the comments, too. I have a question about timing, however. As reported here and elsewhere, the grocery shelves in the DC area are empty in the perimeter of the store (produce, dairy, and meat) but the interior aisles are still stocked – not well stocked but product is still available. Covid has been with us for almost two years now. Why are the shelves empty now? Was there some excess stock somewhere in the chain that allowed grocery stores to keep operating until now? The stores are blaming sick workers all along the chain and weather in the northeast. My gut instinct is those reasons may be contributing factors but they cannot be causing this big of a disruption.
politicians are experts in getting money and getting elected. but they think they can make up anything at all and say do it. i almost typed pass laws but of course precious few of these covid dictates are anything more than executive decrees by power mad fools.
Congress are in the business of NOT passing laws, but to fight and accuse (falsely), bully and coerce. They’re petulant twisted preschoolers, battling on the playground which happens to be our country.
Was at a store yesterday in OC California. Milk was scarce. How about we get together here and make suggestions that we all can use of what should be stocked up on? Sundance has given us powerful info. Let’s use it to our advantage.
I use King Arthur flour and will be stocking up on that for sure.
Medications for your family and your pets. Stock up on pet food.
Learn to cook from scratch, especially bread. There’s a good video about making no-knead bread on Youtube, by Jennycancook.
Don’t rely on the electric grid. Learn to can and dehydrate food.
Shop online for staples like flour and cooking oil and canned meats. Better selection and availability, also saves on gasoline, by avoiding driving around town trying to find groceries.
Order your garden seeds and seed potatoes now. Also baby chicks.
Sounds like the right road. I’ve been on the road for a long time. Hope the rest of the treepers get on.
I made my first made from scratch cake last week. A Chocolate Coca Cola cake. Hubby really appreciated it! It wasn’t that difficult……but alas a lot of dishes to do. Still, a win!
Looking forward to Tractor Supply’s yearly Chick days.
Milk can be easily frozen. We have done that for a long time when we had all of our five kids at home.
The food industry isn’t the only one using this JIT system. Pharmacies do too. Our business, which entails processing and returning excess/expired drugs for independent pharmacies, noticed a huge decrease in volume about 8 years ago.
The independents have been gradually squeezed out by mega corps, like Wal-Mart, and in order to compete had to downsize inventories, based on their local demographics.
Most have gone to a JIT process similar to what SD describes above. Be prepared for shortages to emerge in the very near future.
I don’t think these consequences are unintended.
Unfortunately for * shareholders for these companies do not have their own printing press. Unlike the federal gubmint they can’t simply print the money to pay for the lawsuits.
Watching a video of Dr. Neil Shah, a candidate for MN governor, he mentioned he subscribes to the Austrian school of economics. I looked that up and in that philosophy there are principals we all would like.
One I noted was that shortages cause inflation. Now that isn’t new, but in this context of lockdowns and mandates causing supply chain issues, the left is directly responsible for much of the inflation. Unfortunately I don’t think SlowJoe or Word Salad Harris combined have the brains to see this.
Another is about supply and demand. Currently as Sundance notes, inventories and “just in time” is driven by data. The Austrian theory depends on people and what they are thinking. Given that it appears that the supply chain is too dependent on data. We need a bit more speculation about the mood of consumers and more intelligent people that could see this coming.
Buckle up and prepare
Excellent explanation of modern day supply chain. Optimizing every step of the process has created an incredibly efficient system, that as you say, lacks the capability for massive adjustment. Add the soaring cost of energy that drives increase costs of fertilizer (all raw inputs), heating/cooling and transportation, everything heads higher. Inflation also is driven by more regulation that diverts resources to satisfying the administrative state, not adding capacity or higher, better uses.
“Prosecutorial Discretion” leads to a whole lot of “Discretion”.
Carter had the oil crisis, Biden has the food crisis. Both of them created by the unintended consequences of government policy.
Democrats gonna Democrat.
Carter had the oil crisis. Also the hostage crisis. Biden has the food crisis, the border crisis, the fentanyl crisis, the rioting crisis, the shoplifting crisis, the hospital bed shortage crisis, the school closing crisis- everything they touch becomes a crisis.
The ongoing COVID-19 nonsense here in the United States exists solely and exclusively because our governments have failed to use the correct treatment. They used so-called “vaccines” when Japan has just proven, in less than ONE MONTH, that Ivermectin can wipe out the disease. IVM was awarded the Nobel prize for medicine in 2015. One of the 3 most important drugs in human history: Aspirin, Penicillin, and Ivermectin.
Get your Ivermectin today while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
I owe being more prepared than I would have been to the 2008 crisis and Obama’s election. I formulated a five year plan to move out of a metro area into the woods. Self sufficiency was the guiding principle. Concentrated on growing food, long term storage, cooking, recycling and repair. Put my financial house in order. Emphasis on diversity and if you don’t hold it you don’t own it. No debt. Recognizing knowledge is power and you only fail when you give up I’ve spent the last decade learning about homesteading and repairing or building things. At first I thought I was a survivalist, but it turns out I just changed my life style to be less dependent and it turns out I’m as happy and healthy as I’ve ever been.
I remember learning about just in time inventory (JIT) when I was a college student majoring in business in the early 2000s.
My text books and professors all raved that JIT was great, but I thought it suffered from a critical flaw in that it didn’t allow for any excess supply or capacity to deal with the inevitable emergencies or unexpected spikes in demand.
This seemed like an unappreciated oversight to me that bothered me ever since. I’m actually not surprised that JIT would eventually lead to supply chain issues. I’m just surprised that it took covid mandates to make it happen.
Don’t ignore the government’s other hand in this – the practice of applying property tax to inventory, especially spares or material held for some arbitrary period like greater than 30 days, has resulted in another motive to operate using JIT systems. In this case it applies not only to food and common retail, but to things like utilities and manufacturers who now have no depth in their inventories. Any interruption cascades through the systems. Things like transformers, steel, and lumber…. Hang On!
Frozen potato shelves more than half empty in Raleigh this morning. No milk, produce about half stocked. And so it begins.
Excellent explanation. However, I dispute one point. NONE of this is “unintended consequence”.
Don’t forget that virtually every link in the supply chain has it’s own supply chain.
The purified water used to make food requires filters and chemicals to purify the water which, in turn require their own supply chain.