President Trump is navigating a narrow path through a minefield of foreign and domestic opposition to his preferred trade position on the USMCA. Ironically, or not, on the issue of ending the USMCA we likely have more allies in the labor unions and Bernie Bros than we do amid the congressional republicans.

President Trump was asked again today about his position on the USMCA against the backdrop of a hot-mic moment when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was telling him about caps on Chinese EVs coming into Canada. [Prompted]

“I would rather not have the USMCA. The primary reason I wanted it was because there was no way out of NAFTA, which was the worst trade agreement ever made — like, ever — and they had no termination… I would prefer not having an agreement, but I’m open to doing it.”

Several desperate Canadian trade watchers have framed President Trump’s “that’s good” response to Carney as if Trump was approving of the Chinese EV deal.  Again, folks are just not looking at Trump’s position through the correct lens.

Trump doesn’t care about the issue. Trump is ambivalent to the issue. It’s the same mindset Trump has carried throughout all questions and comments since the questions were first raised.

The reason for Trump’s ambivalence about the granular, sectoral questions is simply because in the big picture of Trump’s outlook, he doesn’t plan on staying in a trilateral trade deal.  Any bilateral trade deal Canada makes with a trade partner is perfectly okay, because Canada is not going to be connected to the USA in a trilateral obligation.

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Leading the beginning of the media event with an announcement of the Iran agreement, President Trump notes a signing event for the negotiated deal will likely take place in Europe attended by JD Vance.

President Trump then moved quickly to the topic of an executive order opening fisheries for U.S. commercial fishing fleets, making announcements about the subject before opening up for questions. WATCH:

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An interesting article in Japan Times reinforces several insider trade discussions that have been taking place over the past eighteen months.  Essentially, all trade deals with Canada are contingent upon their access to the USA market.  Lose the USMCA trade deal, and any trade terms between Asian and Canadian counterparts are null and void.

This is not the first time this background from key trade nations has been shared with Canada.  Japan told Canada last year that most sector trade, specifically the auto industry, was contingent upon tariff-free access to the U.S. market.  If Canada loses the USMCA, the terms of trade change completely.

This reality is now surfacing in comments directly from the Canadian trade teams and business insiders within Canada.  They are now admitting without the USMCA their leverage for trade with other countries disappears.  This is a considerable admission from within Canada government that has not yet become part of the average Canadian understanding.

If Canada loses their trade agreement with the USA, all other countries will modify their trade agreements with Canada.  Think about the leverage within that reality, overlay the Canadian government’s severe anti-Trump mindset, and you quickly realize just how dangerous Mark Carney is for Canada.

JAPAN TIMES – […] Carney’s push to lessen dependence on the U.S. is colliding with a stubborn reality: access to American markets remains a crucial part of Canada’s appeal to prospective trading partners, according to interviews with a dozen government officials and business leaders.

[…] Canadian officials acknowledge that the main draw for many potential trading partners is the prospect of gaining tariff-free access to the world’s largest market through Canada’s participation in ‌the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade ‌agreement.

Carney regularly touts Canada’s preferential access to the U.S. market, noting that more than 85% of bilateral trade remains tariff-free.

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It is not shocking to us.  It is not shocking to anyone who has followed this story for the past few years.  It is particularly not shocking to you.   However, the Canadians are going bananas right now.

President Donald Trump responded to a question about the current status of the USMCA trade agreement, or what Canada calls CUSMA.  Watch and listen to how President Trump points out that he has no intention of renewing the USMCA.

This has been obvious since May of 2025 {GO DEEP}.

I don’t want to say ‘I toldya so’, but…. Video prompted to 37:55:

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In 2015, even before President Trump came down the golden escalator, CTH was outlining a ‘new era and dimension’ in American economics that could be possible if a presidential candidate focused on specific Main Street policy. {Go Deep}

Throughout the next four years we watched carefully how Donald Trump was organizing that Main Street revival {Go Deep} and what specifically was creating the economic growth {Go Deep}.

One of the points emphasized in 2016 about Trump’s unique MAGAnomic policy, was how both Trump and Bernie Sanders agreed on the problem.  The difference between them was the solution.

Think of it like economic football.

Both Trump and Sanders identify the rigged game.  Bernie Sanders wanted to change the referees so that government controls the game. Donald Trump’s approach was different.  Trump wanted to change the rules of the game, not step in and try to play referee to a rigged game where the rules were flawed.

One of the examples of economic “rule changing” is trade tariffs.  You don’t need govt to regulate the corporations directly (ie. raise corporate income taxes). Instead, you can change trade policy to make the better corporate decision a return of production back to the USA (a fundamental rules change).

Both approaches involve a different govt policy, but Trump’s approach changes behavior.  That’s MAGAnomics.

One of the reasons Trump’s approaches are much more effective, is that his rule changes extend beyond the American corporate game.  Trump’s approach changes the behavior of foreign governments and foreign corporations, a win/win/win.

An example is the Japanese government investing in America to offset reciprocity tariffs; while Toyota, a corporation, invests in specific auto manufacturing expansion to avoid baseline tariffs.

You don’t get that kind of result through Bernie’s approach changing the American referee in an all-American game and raising corporate income taxes. And don’t forget, the corporation can just move offshore and avoid income taxes entirely.  Apple used to have their company incorporated in Ireland.  Trump’s rule changes brought them back.

The Promethean Action PAC is now highlighting the fundamentals of Trump’s MAGAnomics and how the policy is distinctly different from all U.S. economic policy before it.

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A rather ironic sequence of events as Canada formally requests to renew the USMCA (CUSMA) trade agreement for 16-years, followed a day later by the U.S. announcing additional tariffs toward 60 countries including Canada.

On Tuesday, Dominic LeBlanc, the trade minister from Canada assigned to USMCA negotiations, traveled to Washington DC for a meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

LeBlanc, reflecting the obtuse nature the Canadian trade delegation is now well known for, seemed oblivious to the friction points in the U.S. position and formally requested the trade deal be renewed for another 16 years. {Citation}

LeBlanc called the agreement “highly beneficial” to all three countries. From the Canadian position this may be true, but that’s not even remotely what the U.S. team has presented in private and public comments.

Additionally, over the past two weeks the shift in Canadian strategy has become clearer.   While Carney’s administration previously seemed to be targeting Democrats in the U.S. congress to support retaining a trade agreement with Canada, that approach ended abruptly after several key Democrat senators began taking the position of influential U.S. labor unions who want the deal scrapped.  Canada now seems to be relying on pressure from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and corporate republicans to support their position.

The day after news reports of Dominic LeBlanc’s expressed position, USTR Greer announced a new round of 301 tariffs against 60 countries who participate in third-party trade agreements with countries who use forced labor. {Citation} Suddenly, Canada’s embrace of China becomes even more serious.

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Mike Steger takes less than 20-minutes to walk through a year of President Trump’s multifaceted U.S. manufacturing policy initiatives that have positioned the U.S. economy for a massive surge in growth. Steger recaps several consequential moves by President Trump and his cabinet to fundamentally change economics in the Western Hemisphere. Each point is well delivered and well presented.

Steger then overlays the economic moves with the geopolitical moves in Venezuela (oil), Cuba (communism ended), Mexico (cartels, traffickers and corruption), Canada (globalism confronted) and finally Greenland (a new consulate is created). Put together, Steger notes how all of these move’s work together with a massive surge in energy, technology and productivity to create a hemispheric powerhouse within the United States. WATCH:

TIMESTAMPS
00:00 Intro
01:10 Volcker and the Origins of Globalization
02:30 NAFTA and the Collapse of Industrial America
04:05 Liberation Day and the Tariff Battle
05:30 China’s Rare Earth Weapon
06:45 Rebuilding American Industry

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Remember last weekend when we outlined how the sudden sense of urgency from Europe toward a trade agreement with Mexico? that agreement had little to do with purchasing row crops from Mexico, and everything to do with what Europe needs as access to the United States {Go Deep}.

The language being used by the United States trade office is specific. [SEE HERE] The first bilateral round of negotiations between the United States and Mexico for the USMCA free trade agreement has concluded. (Emphasis mine)

PRESS RELEASE – “MEXICO CITY — “Today, the United States and Mexico concluded the first bilateral round related to the Joint Review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The United States concluded discussions with the goals of reducing the trade deficit with Mexico and strengthening American supply chains. During this first round, negotiators discussed priority issues related to automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and economic security.

The United States and Mexico recognize the importance of advancing cooperation to enhance regulatory compatibility to strengthen sectors, including medical devices, pharmaceuticals, cosmetic products, and others.

We will continue advancing these discussions on June 16-17 in Washington, D.C., in addition to agriculture and a level playing field. The third round will be held during the week of July 20 in Mexico City.

The United States continues to emphasize the importance of ensuring the Agreement benefits U.S. manufacturers, farmers, ranchers, workers, service suppliers, and businesses of all sizes, and of addressing free-riding from third countries.” (source)

Currently, European automakers have billions invested in Mexican auto plants.  Much of the component material for those vehicles comes from Europe for assembly in Mexico.  That was the primary focus of the Europeans in their trade agreement with Mexico.

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Speaking to an audience at the Ronald Reagan National Economic Forum in California, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlines how flawed trade, financial and economic policies of the past have brought us to a critical moment where President Donald Trump needs to reset the entire system in order to protect American interests.

This is a powerful and well delivered speech certain to gain attention from those who understand the challenge.  Secretary Bessent pulled no punches as he outlined how members of the audience themselves have contributed to a system that has eroded the national security of our nation state by advancing short-term interests disconnected from the American workforce and American industrial base.

The message was simple, “economic security is national security” and a failure to recognize how corporations chasing profits only contributed to the diminishment of internal American wealth.  The patriotic priority must be to return economic strength to the U.S., and all Americans must benefit from renewed economic nationalism.  The American system must be restored.  WATCH:

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…”A cascading series of events could cause a sharp loss of investor confidence and lead to a spike in demand for liquidity or rapid asset sales”…

That’s a diplomatic way for the Bank of Canada to say the current financial situation in Canada is tenuously at risk, if the economic relationship with the United States severs as a result USMCA points of conflict becoming irreconcilable.  An interesting statement against the backdrop of Prime Minister Mark Carney having just visited New York making a pitch to American investors {citation}.

The Bank of Canada released their 2026 Financial Stability Report {see pdf here}, and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle delivered remarks today about the analysis.  I’ve prompted the video below to the point of interest, as well as the transcript for the portion being highlighted [7:12 to 9:15].  WATCH:

[Transcript]  – […] “However, vulnerabilities have increased in some parts of the system. Stock and corporate debt valuations have risen and are high relative to historical norms. This makes markets more vulnerable to a sharp correction.

The issuance of global sovereign debt is also rising, and hedge funds are playing a bigger role in buying that debt, often using borrowed money. In normal times, hedge fund activity helps keep markets running smoothly. But if conditions become strained, this activity could amplify stress and disrupt core funding markets.

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