President Trump’s latest two messages via Truth Social present an interesting geopolitical approach with multiple enmeshed aspects.

First, some background context is needed.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer are in Paris to meet with Chinese government officials ahead of a scheduled meeting between Chairman Xi Jinping and President Trump.

The main objective of the pre-summit assembly before President Trump goes to Beijing, is to hammer out the actionable agreement details that can be signed off by Xi and Trump.  Bessent and Greer are looking to put a deal together with their Chinese counterparts so that Trump and Xi can announce mutually beneficial outcomes during their summit.

Second, President Trump has already indicated the March 31/April 1 meeting with Xi will be all business. The traditional pomp and splendor will not be present, and Trump will only be visiting Beijing – no sidelines.

Third, Secretary Rubio will be accompanying Trump on this trip to Beijing, which might seem ordinary were it not for the fact that in 2020 China sanctioned and banned Rubio from entering China for criticizing Xinjiang and Hong Kong.

Fourth, there are rumors that President Trump is going to announce a significant weapons deal with Taiwan at some point immediately following the trip.  If those rumors are true, it would be a top priority for the Chinese advance team in Paris to stop that from happening.

Regardless of what happens in the next few weeks, President Trump will be meeting with Chairman Xi with full Eagle eye confrontation toward the returning dragon stare.  There will be no panda mask on this trip whatsoever; this face to face is an apex predator showdown, while the world watches intently.

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U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are traveling to Paris this weekend to meet with the Chinese trade officials.  This meeting is in advance of President Trump’s visit to China for direct face-to-face discussions with Chairman Xi Jinping.

Given the recent events in Venezuela and Iran a lot of groundwork must be taking place for the Trump-Xi meeting.  Multiple Chinese interests have been impacted directly.  USTR Jamieson Greer discusses those preparatory issues as well as the recent announcement for Section 301 investigations and tariffs.  WATCH:

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‘Trump, you magnificent bastard, I read your book!’

President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are facing mounting criticism for creating a window for Russia to sell oil and gas to the global market via “narrowly tailored, short-term” sanction relief.  However, few people are putting the issue into context, and the background here is exceptionally interesting.

According to the terms announced by Secretary Bessent, the license to sell applies solely to Russian crude or petroleum products loaded onto vessels as of March 12 and is valid through midnight Washington time on April 11. [Treasury Notice Here – OFAC Technical Details Here]

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The sanction relief license to sell will be done in globally recognized petrodollars and applies only to preexisting oil and petroleum products that are already in transit at sea.  However, here’s where it gets very interesting and the ramifications are significant.

Immediately following the Alaska summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Trump, Russia restarted Arctic-2 LNG terminals and began increasing oil production for storage on ‘floating platforms.’  President Trump met with Putin on August 15, 2025, and the curious increase in Russian production began on August 18, 2025.

In the past six months Russia has been pumping sanctioned oil and gas and storing it on ships and mobile sea platforms, seemingly (at the time) with no customers.  Suddenly, against the background of the Iran conflict, all of that previously stored ‘on the water‘ production, now worth double, is authorized for global sale (in petrodollars).

Either Russian President Putin is the luckiest guy in the world, or Russia knew something.

In 2025 what Russia did following the Alaska summit did not make sense; now it does and the ramifications are stunning.

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It is transparently obvious now that Canada is going to rely on UniParty (Corporate) opposition to President Trump in the dissolution of the USMCA (CUSMA) in favor of two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements; one with Canada and one with Mexico.

A bilateral trade negotiation between the United States and Canada would be devastating to the interests of the Canadian government.  Particularly after the Venezuela operation and new strategic relationship with the United States, Canada has almost zero points of leverage to negotiate anything similar to their current exploitative trade position.

Canada is going to rely on congress to stop Trump from forcing reciprocity in the bilateral discussions. However, as a positive indicator that President Trump will factually have congressional support for the elimination of the USMCA, Democrat Senator Ruben Gallego has written a letter to President Trump requesting a comprehensive review. [LETTER HERE]

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This is a key Senate democrat who notes the problem.  One of Gallego’s top points of concern is the loophole that Canada uses to assemble Chinese component parts into finished goods for tariff free distribution into the United States.

Ever since President Trump won the 2024 election, Mexico has been taking proactive independent action to block Chinese component goods. But Canada has done the opposite and begun to enhance their trade relationship with China to take even more Chinese component and finished goods.

Gallego writes to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer from the position of wanting to increase wages and enhance jobs in both Mexico and the USA, growing both economies. However, Gallego’s advocacy simultaneously bolsters why the USMCA should be dissolved and also puts Canada at a distinct disadvantage.

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The origin of this issue goes back to 2021 and the relaunch of the Build Back Better European green energy program to fight the non-existent climate change problem.  We have been highlighting the consequences within the EU auto sector.

We noted in October of last year, the EU’s mandated fines against auto manufacturers who do not hit their production goals for electric vehicle sales began in 2025.  EU automakers unable to meet the regulatory compliance goal began purchasing carbon credits to avoid stiff EU fines.  Many of those carbon credits were purchased from Chinese EV automakers, who then turned around and started using the extra EU revenue to discount Chinese cars sold in Europe.

At the same time as Chinese autos hit record highs in Europe, EU car sales are flat or declining.  Now, Volkswagen is announcing they lost half their profits in one year and will be cutting 50,000 jobs in the next four years.

(MSM – Europe) – Volkswagen just revealed its operating profit sank like a stone last year, dropping by more than half as tariffs, Chinese competition, and shifting strategies took a serious bite out of the bottom line. And that performance now has the VW Group’s execs reaching for the cost-cutting scissors, including plans to shed 50,000 jobs by the end of the decade.

The German automaker reported an operating profit of €8.9 billion ($10.3 bn at current rates) for 2025. That’s down a hefty 53 percent from the year before and well below what analysts were expecting. Revenue, meanwhile, barely moved, slipping only slightly to around €322 billion ($374 bn). (read more)

This was very predictable. In essence, EU car companies buy Chinese car company carbon credits, to avoid the EU fines.  The Chinese car companies then use the carbon credit revenue to subsidize lower priced Chinese EVs to the European car market, thereby undercutting the European EV car companies.

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One of the most curious aspects to the predictable USMCA review, ie. dissolution, has been the incapacity of the Canadian government or trade delegation to accept the United States is going to create two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements and eliminate the trilateral USMCA.

For 16 months the Canadians have refused to fathom the reality of what is going to happen this year.

The Canadians just cannot believe it is possible they will be forced to negotiate a free trade agreement without the cover of a multilateral construct. It has been remarkable to watch their dissonance.

Last week President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum held a phone call. At the conclusion of the call, Sheinbaum publicly asserted the reality the Canadians just refuse to accept.

MEXICO – Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum told reporters during her morning news briefing on Wednesday that her U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, is open to doing away with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) and replace it with individual trade deals with each country.

[…] “There might be revisions that create bilateral deals instead of involving the three countries because some things are more important between Mexico and the United Sates or between Canada and the United States,” said Sheinbaum. “Not everything has to be trilateral.”

Mexico’s president said the subject was brought up by Trump during a Tuesday phone conversation. […] According to Sheinbaum, her country is ready to consider possible changes. (read more)

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney finally started to realize President Trump was likely to ignore Canada and begin direct discussions with Sheinbaum. So, Carney went to Mexico to try and get assurances from Sheinbaum that Mexico would not proceed without Canadian interests in mind.

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When President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on August 15, 2025, the focus of the geopolitical world was on discussions surrounding Ukraine.  Unfortunately, it didn’t take long, merely a few hours, for both the U.S. and Russia to say that no progress was made.  However, also noted at the time was both the USA and Russia saying sideline discussions took place surrounding the possibility for a strategic relationship surrounding energy development.

What follows below is a review of the current energy dynamic, specifically surrounding LNG, against the backdrop of the Iran war with a hindsight review of that previous discussion between Putin and Trump.

What most people are missing in their current analysis was something that took place immediately following that Alaska summit six months ago.  Something that did not make any sense until now. {GO DEEP PART I HERE}

Three days after that summit meeting, on August 18, 2025, Russia announced they were restarting Russia’s Arctic-2 LNG production facility.  Russia would be more than doubling their capacity to generate and store liquified natural gas (LNG).

It absolutely did not make sense that Russia would start producing even more LNG considering the previously imposed western sanctions against them, and the fact that Russia was already overproducing LNG. As noted by analysts at the time:

AUGUST 18, 2025 – Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 export facility, which is sanctioned by the United States, is coming back to life after a year of no activity and is looking for buyers in Asia.

[…] The U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2, which was billed as Russia’s flagship LNG project, have effectively frozen the start-up of the export facility in the Gydan Peninsula.

[…] Last year, Russia started shipping LNG from its flagship Arctic LNG 2 project—but not to customers. The shipments were made from the Arctic project to floating storage units either in Russia or in European waters, as potential customers were unwilling to buy the sanctioned LNG. {SOURCE}

In August of 2025, Russia was essentially producing more LNG than they could sell into the available market.  Russia was storing the overproduction from Arctic-1 on floating storage units and slowly selling to countries that did not align with the sanctions, specifically China and some Asian buyers.  Then suddenly, after the Trump summit, Russia decides to bring Arctic-2 online and produce even more LNG.  You can see how this did not make sense.

If they could not even sell all the Arctic-1 LNG output, then why would Russia bring Arctic-2 LNG production online?

That was six months ago.

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[Full Backstory Here] – President Trump secured the border, began repatriation efforts, targeted narcotraffickers, confronted narco-terrorists, targeted Mexican drug cartel leadership, leveraged the DOJ to indict regional actors, pushed China out of control in the Panama Canal, took out Nicholas Maduro, took control of Venezuela oil production – both for the security of the U.S. and benefit of the Venezuelan people, removed the discounted oil benefit for China and reasserted stability in the Western hemisphere.

Then, with all that in place, he turned toward Iran…. but, proactively planned for a ‘Shield of the Americas Summit’ before the Iran operation began and scheduled it for today while Operation Epic Fury continues.  WATCH:

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Additional video of the arrival ceremony below.

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We like the deep weeds, most do not.  The geopolitical ramifications of the U.S. confrontation with Iran are vast and complicated; however, to encapsulate one of the most interesting dynamics consider this ‘tldr’ statement to open the discussion with your friends: Right now, Russia is like Amazon during COVID-19.

What follows is not me saying President Trump and President Putin are holding nightly conversations, discussing steps or details, or even obliquely coordinating measures as Trump eliminates the generational threat posed by Iran.

However, I am saying that given the nature of all contact and communication between Trump and Putin, including extensive contacts by their representative emissaries, both Putin and Trump are well aware of each downstream effect from the Iranian confrontation.

Two days after the U.S./Israel began Operation Epic Fury, President Vladimir Putin said Russia should consider shutting down oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) shipments to the EU in advance of the previously scheduled April deadline date when the EU would stop purchases.

♦ First, remember ‘force majeure’ contract nullification is in place for every producer, supplier and transporter in the middle east. Second, with shipments from the Gulf of Oman greatly reduced, LNG prices along with oil prices are increasing rapidly.  The result – ships filled with oil and LNG currently on the water are diverting in real time as international bidding for the content of the ships take place.

If Putin stops selling LNG to Europe, and Europe cannot get LNG from the Gulf of Oman, and China/Asia are LNG dependent (not exporting), then where is Europe going to get the LNG to replace what Russia will no longer provide?

Answer: The United States, and to a lesser extent, Norway.

[SIDENOTE: now does President Trump continuously smacking Great Britain about shutting down their North Sea oil and gas operations take on context?  Geopolitical foresight? I digress. END SIDENOTE]

The European Commission’s decision to phase out and ultimately stop purchasing Russian oil/gas was made in 2025 prior to the Iran conflict triggering.  Europe’s replacement plan included increased LNG purchases from the U.S., Norway and middle east; the latter supply option is now void.

Europe’s decision to stop buying oil/gas from Russia puts them in a very precarious position.  The supply option for Europe is suddenly very limited, and Putin’s statement about stopping the flow early was obviously made with this understanding in mind.

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The geopolitical ramifications of the oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) impact from the ongoing conflict with Iran is changing many of the world’s energy supply chains. Given the nature of the issues there are a myriad of complex dynamics to discuss. However, one key component is the U.S. policy shift to deal with the supply.

With that in mind, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears with Larry Kudlow to discuss the United States’ new $20 billion maritime reinsurance plan as well as the ongoing conflict in Iran. CTH will be expanding the conversation specifically as it relates to Russian oil/gas sales. This is a good precursor interview. WATCH:

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