When asked about a statement this week where Stelco Holdings Inc. announced they were laying off 500 workers from their steel plant in Hamilton, Ontario, immediately Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney blamed the United States.

He’s lying. It’s ridiculous. However, that’s all Carney can do at this point.

In reality it is (1) Canadian energy, climate and manufacturing policy; in combination with (2) the specific decision to allow the import of cheap steel from China; in combination with the decision to (3) rebuke U.S requests to stop purchasing that Chinese steel; that has driven out Canadian steel manufacturing.

(1) Canada carbon emission policy changes steel manufacturing. (2) Canada admits to lying about the import of Chinese Steel. (3) Canadian steel manufacturers warn Canada of pending exit. Mark Carney denied all three points. The receipts are in the links right there.

WATCH Prime Minister Carney blatantly lie on camera:

This announcement by Stelco happened on the exact same day that President Trump announced a new $18billion investment in U.S. steel manufacturing in Iowa. {SOURCE}

In fact, in a world full of irony, during a media segment discussing the closure of the Canadian steel plant, CBC cut away to live feed of President Trump who was making the Iowa steel plant announcement.  The timing was rather remarkable.

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I was quite confused by this distinctly European approach until I had dinner with a Chinese actuary working in the auto warranty insurance industry.

Europe asks China to voluntarily limit exports (mostly autos) to the European Union.  Europe doesn’t want to get China angry with them about this issue.  However, China is sending massive numbers of EVs into Europe.  Europe is losing its auto business. I couldn’t figure out why the EU didn’t take an aggressive/confrontational position.

Then I was reminded.  Europe cannot force Beijing through a trade action (tariffs, ban, EU limit etc.) because Beijing might stop selling them EV carbon credits.  If the European automakers cannot purchase Chinese EV carbon credit certificates, the fines levied by Brussels against gasoline powered autos will destroy the EU auto business.

Think about this for a while, then read the EU media report:

EuroNews –  Brussels is pressing Beijing to accept quotas on Chinese exports as negotiations enter their final stretch, with the EU threatening trade measures unless tangible progress is made by next month.

Brussels and Beijing are fighting over quotas that would limit Chinese imports to the EU market, as the Europeans seek to rebalance their trade relationship with China, Euronews has learned.

Both started intense negotiations last June over EU and Chinese access to each other’s markets, with an October deadline set by the European Commission to reach “tanglible” results. However, China is pushing hard against the EU’s attempts to protect its market.

According to one person familiar with the matter, the Commission, which is negotiating on behalf of the 27 EU countries on trade issues, wants China to accept quotas on specific products. However, it is unclear how China would accept and respect such quotas.

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The iron ore from Minnesota combined with a new steel works in Iowa.  GOOD STUFF!

Today, President Donald J. Trump announced one of the largest steel plants in American history: a $15 billion Mesabi Metallics mill in Iowa. The project will create 1,750 permanent Iowa jobs, support up to 6,000 construction jobs, and is projected to add $95 billion to the U.S. economy over the next decade.

The mill will produce 7.5 million tons of steel per year in its first phase, rising to about ten million tons, using iron ore from Mesabi Metallics’ newly opened Minnesota mine — the first new iron ore mine in the United States in 50 years. {MORE}

The Question and Answer session begins at 22:40. WATCH:

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Tomorrow, September 29th, the U.S. ban on most Canadian alcohol imports begins. [XO Link]

Last year most Canadian provinces banned U.S. alcohol imports as part of the “Elbow-up” program triggered by Prime Minister Mark Carney in response to U.S. baseline tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos.  In early September of this year, the White House and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer responded with an import ban on Canadian alcohol that begins tomorrow.

The Crown Royal brand of Canadian Whiskey will not be impacted as it is shipped in bulk raw liquid to the U.S. where it is bottled, packaged and distributed.  Diageo Inc proactively saw something coming in 2025 and shifted its supply chain to avoid the conflict.  However, most Canadian brands of alcohol are not as fortunate.  [SEE BAN SECTOR LIST]

The Supreme Court ruled last year that while tariffs against products can -under certain conditions- be subjected to congressional approval, but when it comes to trade friction – bans of products outright are legally within the power of the President.  This ban on Canadian alcohol will impact approximately $854 million (usd) in imports. (SEE STORY).

It will be interesting to see if any last-minute intervention takes place.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on Sunday Morning Futures now hosted by Larry Kudlow who has replaced Maria Bartiromo.  The primary topic of the conversation is the current state of the economy.

Secretary Bessent notes we have entered the phase of prior policy implementation where the economy now accelerates growth based on former policy changes including, targeted tax reductions, capital investment prioritization and expensing, regulatory changes and direct investment.  GDP growth now looks to achieve 5% or more.  WATCH:

Oil prices are the underlying friction within the economy creating higher gasoline and diesel prices.  However, when you take the energy sector out of the inflation calculation, the current rate of wage growth is exceeding inflation.

Bessent also notes, currently the only oil not coming through the Strait of Hormuz is Iranian oil.  Other than those supplies, oil flows through the Strait are at normal levels.

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The state visit by Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping in combination with USTR Jamieson Greer’s responsibilities within the U.S-China trade program, meant that Greer had to defer a visit to Mexico to work on the USMCA replacement.  However, bilateral trade agreement discussions at a technical level remained on track and progressing during Xi’s visit.

The U.S. and Mexico delegations have now expanded the bilateral topics from 54 sections to 90 sections.  This indicates significant agreement on the major components of the framework and now the smaller overlapping topics that enmesh with the bigger topics are brought in.

Greer shifted focus toward the Chinese trade aspects due to the timing of the Xi-Trump summit.  USTR Jamieson Greer is expected to be returning to the Mexico trade talks in about a week.

For the interests of the Mexican side, the main focus is seeking favorable reductions in the section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles.  However, the digital platform section and intellectual property is also a priority being negotiated by team USA.

MEXICO CITY, Sept 23 (Reuters) – The fourth round of trade talks between Mexico and the United States will not take place next week and could instead be held in October, a senior Mexican official said on Wednesday, as the two countries juggle a shifting diplomatic calendar.

Luis Rosendo Gutierrez, Mexico’s deputy economy minister for foreign trade, said the delay was due to scheduling conflicts, including Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States and the upcoming G20 summit. Despite the pause in formal rounds, Gutierrez said technical coordination with the US Trade Representative’s Office (USTR) remains a “daily” occurrence.

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Promethean Action’s Susan Kokinda gives a good recap of Chinese Chairman Xi’s state visit, including the nuanced respect and policy alignment visible between President Trump and Chairman Xi.

In essence, the comments by Marco Rubio about putting USA sovereign policy ahead of prior USA multilateral global policy, are a baseline for Chairman Xi to pivot his own interpretations of Trump’s policy objective.  With U.S policy focused on America’s interests and Beijing policy focused on China’s interests, there is no room for conflict, only terms.

This episode argues that media outrage over a White House “autopen” joke and criticism of Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping obscures a deeper shift: Trump is dismantling a 50-year geopolitical framework associated with Henry Kissinger. It contrasts Chatham House’s “China Rising, America in Decline?” panel and its Thucydides Trap framing—linked to Graham Allison—with Xi’s evolution from posing the trap as an open question to asserting it “can be overcome” after Trump’s UN speech and claimed actions in Iran, Venezuela, the Shield of America, and the Greenland Treaty, alongside a push for reindustrialization.

The script also highlights a UN Board of Peace session on Gaza focused on reconstruction led by Gazans and a new security structure involving Muslim-country troops, presenting it as ending “outside forces” control. It notes Rubio’s permanent dual role as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor and frames his stance as reversing Kissinger’s legacy.  WATCH:

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Terms of Greenland Deal Here

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U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer appears on CNBC to discuss the trade aspect of the U.S-China negotiations against the backdrop of the official state visit by Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping.

USTR Greer notes the tariffs against China remain in place and extended for several months as the U.S. reviews Beijing compliance with pre-existing agreements.  This builds on what Greer previously said about ultimately the U.S. and China are in a managed situation, where the U.S. doesn’t put any focus on what China says, we are looking at what China does.

Stunningly, at 4:25 of the video CNBC pundit Kelly Evans chimes in with a weird talking point about the U.S-China trade deficit not changing. Ambassador Greer quickly corrects Ms Evans, noting her baseline is entirely false. The trade disparity between the U.S and China has reduced by 40% over the past year, in part because the U.S. is leveraging tariffs as enforcement mechanisms to previous purchase agreements.  WATCH:

In typical leftist fashion, Ms Kelly Evans says “if true” to the United States Trade Representative.  Who else, other than the USTR, would know the specifics of accuracy for the data Ms Evans is mis-citing.  Quite silly.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney left the United Nations General Assembly and went directly to the New York Times for a pre-scheduled interview with fellow leftist travelers intent on influencing the U.S midterm election.

Carney having previously appointed Clinton/Obama Democratic operative Maia Johnson as his Chief Operating Officer within his office, obviously had one agenda in mind as he strolled into the Times office for his pre-planned operation.

Within the hour-long conversation, the Canadian Prime Minister had several key points of emphasis in his objective. The top-line hook to draw in the audience was his first statement about having prepared for military combat operations against the United States.  [ARTICLE HERE] Key points below:

(1) Carney developed contingency plans to use military combat operations against the United States.  Yes, it is transparently obvious this is a political statement.  His mentioning of this is meant to create the traditional leftist victimhood position used in all psychological operations.  Carney follows this outlandish statement by saying these military plans are no longer needed because he now feels he has “a good relationship” with President Trump.

[…] “Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada said that he had prepared over the past year for the “extreme tail risk” that President Trump might order military action against Canada but disclosed that the two men have spoken “frequently,” even since trade talks collapsed last month, describing a tense, evolving relationship.

Mr. Carney suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action, but declined to discuss in detail what that involved. “I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” said Mr. Carney, a former central banker for Britain and Canada. … “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare.”

(2) Carney outlines how he intends to build a closer economic relationship with China as a hedge against Canadian dependency on the United States.  Given the statements made by Carney in Beijing, this does not come as a surprise; however, it is the expressed open intent to further attach Canada to China that should raise eyebrows.

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President Trump has drawn attention to this segment by Victor Davis Hanson outlining the status of the Canadian position thanks to Prime Minister Mark Carney.  Why? Because VDH is the type of American that Canadians actually listen to.

VDH apparently talks in the tones and constructs that appeal to Canadians, therefore his remarks on how Mark Carney is manipulating Canada hit more directly than when other pundits do it.  VDH has seen a remarkable uptick in the size of his audience ever since he started talking about Canada, because his new audience is almost exclusively Canadian.

Hanson speaks about the Canadian dynamic below.  It’s monotone, but the “elbows crew’ like it.  WATCH (prompted):

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Prime Minister Carney asks why Victor Davis Hanson is doing this to him.

I’m not a big fan of Canadians switching positions and suddenly wanting to accept trade terms.  CTH would prefer that we sever all ties with Canada, terminate the USMCA and watch them slowly spiral for a year or two.  Carney Inc deserves it.

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