National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the Sept. Jobs report, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports and the next stages of U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Kudlow notes job growth in the Household survey was a stunning 391,000 in September.

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Kudlow also appeared on Bloomberg to discuss similar aspects of the latest reports (below).
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In the larger picture it is clear the Obama administration weaponized the institutions of government to target their political opposition. It is also increasingly clear a Hillary Clinton administration would have monetized the U.S. government.
President Obama’s team used the DOJ, CIA, FBI and IRS to target their opposition. The intelligence apparatus was weaponized; one small example that scratches the surface is the FBI/NSA database exploitation. Black files on DC politicians, private sector groups and individuals facilitating leverage, and we are still seeing the ramifications.
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When former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne recently discussed his role within the 2016  “political espionage” operations, he described the financial interests of political office; not coincidentally he also seems to have retreated into a safe-space.
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White House trade and manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox Business to discusses the World Trade Organization ruling granting the U.S. $7.5 billion in annual tariff countermeasures against the EU.

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Jumpin’ ju-ju bones – The Trump administration via U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross won a massive $7.5 billion award as an outcome of the World Trade Organization agreeing with the U.S. against the EU and Airbus subsidies.  The WTO arbitrators decision is final and cannot be appealed.
This win sets the stage for President Trump to deploy $7.5 billion in countervailing duties against products from the EU.  Keep in mind, a final WTO ruling means the EU cannot retaliate against any WTO-authorized countermeasures.  The downstream ramifications are very significant. Think about it: at 25% the U.S. could tariff $30 billion in EU goods.

Man, talk about serendipitous timing… But first, here’s the press release from Robert Lighthizer:

Washington, D.C.–  The United States has won the largest arbitration award in World Trade Organization (WTO)  history in its dispute with the European Union over illegal subsidies to Airbus.  This follows four previous panel and appellate reports from 2011-2018 finding that EU subsidies to Airbus break WTO rules.
Today’s decision demonstrates that massive EU corporate welfare has cost American aerospace companies hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenue over the nearly 15 years of litigation.

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This is too funny.  Serendipitous timing. President Trump is holding a bilateral meeting with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine on the same day the transcript of the call between both leaders has been released.  There are multiple media outlets streaming the upcoming meeting.  Trump and Zelenskyy meet at 2:15pm ET, links below:
Fox News Livestream Link – Fox Business Livestream – CNBC Livestream Link

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Good grief, talk about a nothingburger – this phone call is fine. Here’s the transcript of the phone call between President Trump and President Zelenskyy.

[White House] President Donald J. Trump has released a declassified, unredacted transcript of his telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from July 25th, 2019. The transcript can be read HERE.
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Last week U.S. economic data included the Labor Department’s report on initial filings for unemployment benefits, at historically low levels. Also last week, the Commerce Department reported the U.S. housing market (new homes and permits) was the strongest since 2007. Then came the Philadelphia Fed’s index of manufacturing business activity in September, more than doubling estimates as factories continue to expand.  And if that wasn’t too much winning, the Commerce Department then announced August retail sales growth was double expectations.  Main Street USA is very strong.

None of the economic data supports the almost month-long ‘recession narrative’ pushed by financial pundits and media narrative engineers; and next week the second estimate of Q2 GDP growth will be released. Attempting to retain the smallest remaining whiff of credibility, the Bloomberg economists now announce they’re cancelling the recession.
Yes, in a piece titled “Hold That Recession – U.S. Indicators are Trouncing Forecasts“, Bloomberg admits the economy doesn’t match their gloomy narrative:

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy is outperforming expectations by the most this year, offering a fresh rebuttal to last month’s resurgent recession fears fueled by the trade war and a manufacturing slump.
The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index has reached an 11-month high after four indicators released Thursday, including existing home sales and jobless claims, each surpassed expectations.

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Michael Pillsbury traveled to Hong Kong recently to help explain the goals and objectives of President Trump’s U.S-China trade position.  During an interview, Mr. Pillsbury warns Beijing interests not to interpret the current U.S. position as aggressive, because the dragon has yet to see the severe side to Trump’s position.

During an interview with the South China Morning Post, Pillsbury points out there are a great many more ways that President Trump is prepared to respond if the combative trade position from China remains hostile to any concessions.  This first option was their best option.  However, should they choose further trade conflict, President Trump will happily oblige.
CTH research on Trump’s outlook, vis-a-vis China, has led us to believe there is no upper limit to the economic weapons President Trump is willing to deploy; and considering that Pillsbury can be relied upon to deliver honest, accurate and deliberate remarks about the White House position, these warnings from a close advisor to the President should be weighted accordingly.

(South China Morning Post) – The United States is set to ramp up the pressure on China if a trade deal is not agreed soon, a key White House adviser said, adding that Washington has so far imposed only “low level tariffs” on the Asian giant.

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This is a topic we have previously discussed.  The current status is unfortunately what CTH previously predicted….  The consequences here are very serious.

Representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, claims a significant number of House Democrats are ready to vote to approve the USMCA trade deal.  However, Nancy Pelosi is holding back the vote.

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Everyone agrees that passage of the USMCA would provide leverage for the U.S. position in both China and EU trade negotiations.  Representative Andy Barr says despite a likely 300+ vote of support, he believes Pelosi is stalling to block that exact leverage.
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Mercedes Stephenson from Global News has done some excellent follow-up coverage on the arrest of RCMP Intelligence Director Cameron Ortis.  Mr. Ortis is facing seven serious charges of intelligence violations including obtaining information to pass to a “foreign entity.”  The intelligence compromise is the biggest scandal in “a generation”.
New evidence shows the arrest was a result of a 2018 international intelligence operation that targeted the encrypted communications service known as “Phantom Secure”.
A man named Victor Ramos was the CEO of Phantom Secure, an enterprise that provided encrypted communication devices to criminal agents involved in drug smuggling, money laundering and human trafficking.
Ramos was arrested by United States FBI officials in Washington State.  Ramos gave the FBI information about intelligence for sale that was coming from a source deep inside the Five-Eyes intelligence apparatus.  That information led to RCMP Director Cameron Ortis.
The scale of the compromise is still being analyzed. Ortis was director general of the National Intelligence Coordination Centre in Canada. In essence, Ortis was the Canadian equivalent of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (James Clapper/Dan Coats); and had access to the most sensitive intelligence information amid the entire Five-Eyes network that includes: Canada, The United States, The U.K. Australia and New Zealand.
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