Last year during punditry discussions of  North Korea, the traditional crowd were waxing philosophically about military expansionism, and the threat of nuclear war as a likely outcome.

However, all of those Gordian-knot sellers held references from a fundamentally flawed foundation; they viewed the DPRK as a separate nation from China.  There were a few voices who challenged geopolitical orthodoxy and presented a different view; the DPRK as a proxy province of China.

When you think of North Korea as a proxy province of China, everything changes.  Every possible action and consequence changes.  If the DPRK is inherently a proxy province of Beijing, then North Korea already had nuclear weapons; or at least access to nuclear weapons as needed; the argument to stop them was moot.

Additionally, if Beijing was structurally and factually controlling Pyongyang, attaining a peaceful Korean peninsula between Kim Jong-un and his South Korean neighbor Moon Jae-in, was entirely different.

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This report out of South Korea, while not confirmed, makes sense. Earlier today President Trump announced Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was en route to North Korea to finalize details for upcoming summit. Secretary Pompeo tweeted he was going to DPRK “at the invitation of N-Korean leadership.”

It makes sense, as an advanced gesture of goodwill ahead of the summit, for Kim Jong-un to release the U.S. captives.

SEOUL, May 9 (Yonhap) — North Korea is expected to release three U.S. citizens held in the communist state on Wednesday, an official from Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said, in an apparent goodwill gesture ahead of a historic meeting between its leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump.

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Wow. You have to watch this video to see how history was just encapsulated.

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in meet at the village of Panmunjom, the historic site where the Korean War armistice was signed in 1953 for the start of talks between the two countries.

Their unified meeting is the third inter-Korean summit, but this meeting is the first time a leader from the communist North has entered the democratic South. South Korea then holds a welcoming ceremony for the North Korean leader that includes full military honors and a military guard review.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un writes: “new history starts now; age of peace, from the starting point of history” on guest visitor book at Peace House.

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In the past 48 hours South Korea (Moon Jae-in) and North Korea (Kim Jong-un) have been working out the details of their upcoming summit.  Within the discussions between North and South Korea some stunning news has surfaced.

♦ Yesterday Moon Jae-in announced that North Korea had agreed to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula without any preconditions or expectations of changes in the relationship between the U.S. and South Korea:

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea has expressed its commitment to “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula and is not seeking conditions, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said on Thursday, as the United States vowed to maintain “maximum pressure” on Pyongyang.

[…] “I don’t think denuclearization has different meanings for South and North Korea,” Moon said during a lunch with chief executives of Korean media companies. “The North is expressing a will for a complete denuclearization.”

“They have not attached any conditions that the U.S. cannot accept, such as the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea,” he continued. “All they are talking about is the end of hostile policies against North Korea, followed by a guarantee of security.”  (read more)

As the summit discussions continued today; and to assure the previous U.S. envoy CIA Director Mike Pompeto; and in affirmation of direct talks with President Trump; North Korea made an even more stunning statement from the Korean Central News Agency:

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There was a possibility widely discussed and debated a year ago, where President Trump’s geopolitical doctrine of using economic leverage for national security would create the “leverage” for a denuclearized North Korea.  And eventually the “economic” value for a unified Korean peninsula.

Seven months ago we wrote:  “Turning rockets into ploughshares is a good strategy.”

Stunningly today, a significant step in that direction is being outlined.

(Via CNBC) North and South Korea are in talks to announce a permanent end to the officially declared military conflict between the two countries, daily newspaper Munhwa Ilbo reported Tuesday, citing an unnamed South Korean official.

Ahead of a summit next week between North Korean premier Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, lawmakers from the neighboring states were thought to be negotiating the details of a joint statement that could outline an end to the confrontation.

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The next president of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or “AM LO” as he is known locally, is a well known Marxist.  AM LO is virtually certain to be the winner of the July 1st Mexican election.  The U.S. will have a Hugo Chavez ideologue at our southern border.

Today, front-runner AM LO told an audience in Rosarito (Baja California peninsula) that President Trump’s bad experiences investing in Mexico, and encountering corrupt officials throughout government, were likely the reason for his negative view of the country.

“[Trump] invested here in Rosarito and also in Cozumel, Quintana Roo, and because of Mexico’s corrupt governments he had to leave,” Lopez Obrador said. “That’s why he got a bad impression of our country.”  (Reuters link)

AM LO went on to say his national government would eliminate the decades-long corruption within government and the judicial system.  Keep eyes-wide-open; once in office AM LO will likely repeat Chavez/Maduro and remove blocks to his agenda including legislative opposition, elections and eventually term limits.

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If the news from the first round of Mexican election polling was any better we’d have to be twins to enjoy it.   Andres Obrado, a well-known Marxist who intends a government take-over of the Mexican energy sector, is holding a commanding 18-point lead.

This is excellent news for border wall enthusiasts and those who want the Trump administration to pull out of NAFTA.

Mr Obrador is the modern Mexican version of Hugo Chávez (or Nicolàs Maduro/Bernie Sanders) with a similar ideological outlook.  His resulting territorial economic policies are certain to deliver the Venezuela outcome to the Mexican people.

For American companies doing business in Mexico, an Obrador win would be the worst possible outcome.  They will lose hundreds of billions from their current Mexican investments, as President Obrador swoops in to skim (tax) corporate profits for his state-run enterprises and care for ‘his people’. However, the good news is – those U.S. multinationals will likely all return to the U.S. asap.  Lucky day, lucky day.

Funnily enough, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross must have held some insider information about this likelihood when he sheepishly hinted toward this possibility a few weeks ago.  Oh, the poor multinational critters in Wall Street are gonna have a heart attack when they see this.  Wait, wha… they did already?

MONTERREY (Reuters) – Mexican left-wing presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has an 18-point lead ahead of the July 1 election, according to a poll published on Monday that showed him with a growing advantage at the start of formal campaigning.

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In retaliation for $50 billion in U.S. trade tariffs against Chinese imports, China laughably hits back with $3 their own billion tariffs against the U.S.  According to most reporting Beijing has selected U.S. pork and scrap aluminum as targets for a 25% tariff, along with wine and fruit tariffs around 15%.

It should be emphasized the approach by China is rather ridiculous considering the Chinese government purchased the largest U.S. pork manufacturer Smithfield in 2013 for $5 billion; at the time the purchase price was 30% more than the company was worth.  Smithfield, now a Chinese company, represents 25% of all U.S. pork products.

Do you really think China is going to not import it’s own pork products… or subject them to a domestic tax?  Think about it.  It’s ridiculous.  China knows they have ZERO leverage in a trade-dispute with the U.S., they cannot afford to lose access to the U.S. market.

The example of Smithfield foods is exactly what we have outlined in how China cannot sustain itself and needs to control the assets of foreign countries.  Hence, their one-road/one-belt program for securing products and raw materials.  China is a dependent economy, they need to exploit global trade to survive.  China cannot feed itself. This is the inherent flaw within their short-sighted authoritarian government-controlled economic model.

Again, for emphasis, the Chinese government underwrote the purchase of Smithfield foods in 2013.  They paid 30% more than the company was worth because they were securing access to food just like they would any other raw material (uranium, minerals, etc).  China also purchases U.S. politicians to retain their ability in this regard.

Now look at the cartoon from the unofficial Chinese state-run media today:

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Perhaps as early as this week we should anticipate hearing about completion a significant trade agreement with South Korea.  The deal is known as “KORUS” (KOR+U.S.), and has been in negotiations for over a year.

Part of the recent agreement within the auto-sector of the deal, between Moon Jae-in and President Donald Trump, via Lighthizer and Ross, is an exemption of U.S. steel tariffs for South Korea in exchange for a doubling of U.S. auto exports; from 25,000 to 50,000 American made cars, per U.S. automaker, per year.  (link)

The results within KORUS exhibit the intended outcome of the global tariff proposal from President Trump as leverage to enhance the administration policy of reciprocity.  The world is taking notice, and China is now beginning to signal their understanding of President Trump leading the international discussion of reciprocal trade.

The unspoken background is that all nations, who have acquiesced to the overwhelming demands of China’s trade position, are now beginning to reassess the value of President Trump confronting the equation head-on.  Ultimately it is beginning to sink-in that all nations can benefit from correcting a trade imbalance within their own position.  In essence, U.S. President Trump is moving the entire global trade dynamic.

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