There is an awful lot to unpack in this seemingly obscure article talking about Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and a new trade approach he is pitching to Pacific/Asia and Atlantic/European nations. [Story Here]

Before getting to the substance of the outline, something important needs to be shared for context.

Do you remember the 2014, 2015 and 2016 top story conversations and debates over the Transpacific Partnership trade deal known as TPP?

You might also remember the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership trade deal known as TTIP.

The TPP (Pacific) and TTIP (Atlantic) were two major multinational trade deals negotiated between 2013 and 2016. While both sparked plenty of debate, most of the spotlight was on the TPP, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Hillary Clinton was in favor of TPP as were most of the traditional republican field of candidates in ’15/’16.  However, Donald Trump was strongly against TPP and pledged to exit out of any negotiations and scrap the U.S. participation if he was to win the 2016 election.  Some of you may begin to remember this.

Donald Trump agreed with our position, that TPP was being falsely sold as a beneficial 12-nation massive trade agreement between the USA and pacific rim countries including Australia and Southeast Asia nations.

With the history of NAFTA behind us, we could see two major issues with TPP:  #1: It was structured with a back door to let China into the deal. And #2) it was created to ensure the USA remained a “service driven economy.”

Supporters of TPP and TTIP claimed this multinational trade deals would create smooth supply chains and align on ‘rules of origin.’ They believed TPP would benefit companies and lead to cheaper products. Critics, however, argued that the agreements were designed to exploit the U.S. consumer market and prevent the country from ever regaining a strong manufacturing base.

I share those reminders to set up the big 800-lb gorilla question.

If the TPP was such a great trade deal for all parties involved, why didn’t the group finalize it after the USA withdrew? It’s been a decade, so why haven’t the TPP nations completed their trade agreement?

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While the government of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has inked a trade agreement with China to accept cheap imported vehicles in exchange for Beijing purchasing some agricultural products, President Trump has promised those cheap Chinese EVs will never cross the border into the USA.

The Canadian polling on the issue has done a remarkable chang in the past few years.  Now, the majority of Canadians are willing to purchase cheap Chinese EVs. As outlined by Bloomberg, “More than half of Canadians, or 53%, say that knowing an EV was made in China would have no effect on their purchasing decision, according to a new poll by Nanos Research Group for Bloomberg News.”

Approximately 50,000 Chinese electric vehicles will enter the Canadian market in the first year. “The pact with China includes a provision that part of the quota will be reserved for electric vehicles priced at C$35,000 ($25,700) or less, the government has said.” {SOURCE}

The Canadian government wants a Chinese auto manufacturer, any Chinese auto manufacturer, to build factories in Canada to produce these electric vehicles.  Canada wants the jobs and economic activity because Canada is currently bleeding jobs and economic activity due to the trade conflict with the U.S.

Building cheap Chinese EVs in Canada might help offset a few thousand job losses, but building Chinese EVs in Canada only further ensures there will not be a substantive trade agreement between the USA and Canada once the USMCA (CUSMA) is dissolved.  [More on that coming]

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A horrific school shooting in Canada has resulted in the death of 10 people. Seven people at the school, two people in a residence nearby and the shooter. The details are starting to come out, but for some reason there is a concerning aspect to the “gender” of the shooter.

The Associated Press describes the situation: VANCOUVER, British Columbia (AP) — A shooting at a school in British Columbia left eight dead including a woman whom police believe to be the shooter, while two more people were found dead at a nearby home, Canadian authorities said Tuesday.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police said more than 25 people are injured, including two who were airlifted to hospital with life-threatening injuries, after the shooting at Tumbler Ridge Secondary School.” (more)

BBC SUMMARIZES: Police say an attacker killed nine people before taking their own life on Tuesday. – Six victims were found dead inside Tumbler Ridge Secondary school, while a seventh person died on the way to hospital. The body of the attacker was also found at the school. – Two more people were found dead inside a residence nearby. – Police described the suspect as a “female in a dress with brown hair” in an active shooter alert sent to the community. – At least two other people were taken to hospital with serious or life-threatening injuries following the attack, and as many as 25 people were being treated for non-life-threatening injuries, police said. – Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney, said he is “devastated” by the shooting and that his government “stands with all British Columbians as they confront this horrible tragedy.” – The PM cancelled his upcoming trip to the Munich Security Conference in response to the shooting. (link)

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Writing on a Truth Social post earlier this evening, President Trump is threatening to block the U.S. side of a new bridge that links Detroit, Michigan to Ontario, Canada:

(Truth Social) – “As everyone knows, the Country of Canada has treated the United States very unfairly for decades. Now, things are turning around for the U.S.A., and FAST! But imagine, Canada is building a massive bridge between Ontario and Michigan. They own both the Canada and the United States side and, of course, built it with virtually no U.S. content. President Barack Hussein Obama stupidly gave them a waiver so they could get around the BUY AMERICAN Act, and not use any American products, including our Steel.

Now, the Canadian Government expects me, as President of the United States, to PERMIT them to just “take advantage of America!” What does the United States of America get — Absolutely NOTHING! Ontario won’t even put U.S. spirits, beverages, and other alcoholic products, on their shelves, they are absolutely prohibited from doing so and now, on top of everything else, Prime Minister Carney wants to make a deal with China — which will eat Canada alive. We’ll just get the leftovers! I don’t think so.

The first thing China will do is terminate ALL Ice Hockey being played in Canada and permanently eliminate The Stanley Cup. The Tariffs Canada charges us for our Dairy products have, for many years, been unacceptable, putting our Farmers at great financial risk. I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them, and also, importantly, Canada treats the United States with the Fairness and Respect that we deserve. We will start negotiations, IMMEDIATELY. With all that we have given them, we should own, perhaps, at least one half of this asset. The revenues generated because of the U.S. Market will be astronomical. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” ~PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

The USMCA renegotiation plan likely plays a big part in this announcement.  Don’t react, just watch.

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President Trump speaks to President Sheinbaum about upcoming USMCA renegotiation, while Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard meets simultaneously in Washington with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss the upcoming trade review.

(VIA BLOOMBERG) Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she had a “cordial” conversation with Donald Trump on Thursday, discussing trade and security issues ahead of the review of the North American free trade deal.

Sheinbaum said the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement will continue as planned and that she and the president discussed tariffs and non-tariff barriers in their latest call.

Mexico’s leader added that Trump invited her to the US but that no date has been set for what would be their second in-person meeting.

On security, Sheinbaum offered that both leaders are pleased with the level of cooperation so far between their two countries. Trump agrees “that we are making progress in the general understanding we have,” she told reporters at her regular daily media briefing, without offering more details.

Sheinbaum first revealed the latest phone call with Trump in a social media post. (read more)

We all know what is likely to happen, these small articles are like aperitifs while we await the main performance.   Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of Canadians -sans possibly Alberta residents- are clueless.

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Here we go.  If you’ve been under the Treehouse branches for more than a few months, it is now officially time to pull up a rock take a front row seat and enjoy the show.  Don’t draw attention to yourself; however, please do bring your favorite beverage, relax and watch what no one else will admit is happening.  The 2026 operation to exit the USMCA is officially underway.

While the Snow Mexicans are gnashing their teeth talking about feelings and various shiny things, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is meeting today with Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard to strategize the best approach for a U.S-Mexican bilateral free trade agreement.

Please remember, in order to fully appreciate the moment, we must allow all negotiation pretenses to remain in place, giving the illusion of something that will no longer be present when the end goal is reached.

Jan 28 (Reuters) – U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard agreed during a meeting on Wednesday to begin formal discussions on possible reforms to the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, Greer’s office said.

Possible reforms include stronger rules of origin for key industrial goods, more collaboration on critical minerals, increasing efforts to defend workers and producers, and efforts to combat dumping of manufactured goods, the USTR’s office said in a statement. (LINK)

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People might be interested in the recent stories of Canadian Premier Doug Ford and his reversal of position on Chinese EV production. Ontario Premier Ford now welcomes Chinese EVs into Canada.

Or people might be interested in the recent story of the EU announcing a historic trade deal with India. The European Union is now looking to find new markets to replace the U.S., while simultaneously agreeing to establish a new immigration/recruitment process to accept massive numbers of Indian migrants.

Yes, Canada reverses their position on trade with China, that’s odd. And somehow the EU immediately forgets their demands for India to stop buying Russian oil or face EU sanctions, another oddity.  This is like watching someone you don’t like, get engaged to your smelly, fat ex-girlfriend. [Matthew 15:14]

Canada and the EU take trade and economic positions seemingly against U.S. interests. Simultaneously Mexico modifies all their trade positions to come into alignment with the USA. Yesterday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced Mexico will no longer ship oil to Cuba.

What’s going on?

Well, to really understand what is happening you need to look at President Trump’s responses to all of the individual issues outlined above and take a much bigger picture view.  President Trump is the master of the ‘self-fulfilling prophecy.’

♦ CANADA – When President Trump was asked about Prime Minister Mark Carney creating a new trade agreement with China, President Trump responded that he didn’t care – it was irrelevant to him.  Yet, simultaneously inside the USMCA President Trump has the power to veto any trade agreement between Mexico or Canada and a non-member nation.

So, why didn’t President Trump care?  Easy, because in President Trump’s mind there’s not going to be a USMCA; so, he really doesn’t care if Canada runs to violate it.  In real terms, Canada doing bilateral deals with other countries, especially deals potentially detrimental to the USA, only strengthens his position on dissolving the USMCA.

If Canada violates the terms and spirit of the USMCA, it makes dispatch of the unliked trade agreement even easier.  Canada is helping President Trump remove the congressional justification they could use to block him.  If Canada is violating the USMCA (CUSMA), Congress is kneecapped from interference.

Provoking Canada into a trade position, that puts them at a disadvantage trying to stop the dissolution of the CUSMA, stops Congress from opposing the fracture, and then opens the door to a bilateral trade agreement, is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that is entirely controlled by President Donald Trump.

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Ontario Premier Doug Ford went for a pizza with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.  Following the meeting Doug Ford appears on camera for a debrief to explain how he has reversed his opposition to Chinese EV imports.  The presser looks like a hostage video (prompted):

USMCA Article 32.10 – Non-Market Country FTA (key provisions):

“A Party intending to negotiate a free trade agreement with a non-market country shall inform the other Parties at least three months prior to commencing negotiations and, upon request, provide information regarding the objectives of those negotiations.

A Party that enters into a free trade agreement with a non-market country shall provide the other Parties with the full text of the agreement prior to signing.

If a Party enters into a free trade agreement with a non-market country, the other Parties may terminate this Agreement on six months’ notice and replace it with a bilateral agreement.” [SOURCE]

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on ABC News with narrative engineer Jonathan Karl to discuss the outcomes of the Davos assembly, the Canadian trade conflict and the U.S-NATO deal over Greenland.  Video and Transcript Below:

[Transcript] – KARL: I’m joined now exclusively by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is just back from Davos and joins us here in the studio.

Thank you for being here, Mr. Secretary. Let me start with the threat that the president made just yesterday to Canada. He said, if Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a one hundred percent tariffs against all Canadian goods. Why is Donald Trump threatening Canada again with another trade war?

SCOTT BESSENT, (R) UNITED STATES TREASURY SECRETARY: Well, Jonathan, good to be with you. And look, Prime Minister Carney went to — went to China, came back, dropped some industry specific tariffs on Chinese goods, and we have a highly integrated market with Canada, sometimes in autos, which he dropped the E.V. tariff, I believe, from a hundred percent to six percent.

The goods can cross across the border during the manufacturing process six times. And we can’t let Canada become an opening that the Chinese pour their cheap goods into the U.S. We have a USMCA agreement, but based on — based on that, which is going to be renegotiated this summer, and I’m not sure what Prime Minister Carney is doing here, other than trying to virtue-signal to his globalist friends at Davos.

I don’t think he’s doing the best job for the Canadian people.

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Canadian Ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, appears on CBS Face The Nation to discuss ongoing political and trade relations between Canada and the United States – Video and Transcript below.

During one segment of the interview, Ambassador Hillman is asked about the dissolution of the USMCA (CUSMA) trade agreement, and immediately Hillman falls back upon the same Justin Trudeau position of the government. The U.S. politicians will not allow President Trump to dissolve the USMCA.

“I think that we have to believe that our political leaders are going to be listening to the people in the constituencies for whom that instrument was drawn up, and they’re saying, this is vital to us, do no harm.”

Canada is counting on American political opposition to defend the economic interests of Canada. This is exactly the same position that former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau espoused in 2017 and 2018.

[Transcript] – So a lot is going on in the relationship between our two countries. We are so deeply integrated here on trade, you buy more from the U.S. than any other country. We have the world’s longest land border. We have shared defense interests through NATO, shared air defense with NORAD. Are we like in the middle of a divorce? Like, how do you describe the relationship?

AMB HILLMAN I- I- we’re not in the middle of a divorce, but we are in the middle of a change. There’s no question about it. I think that we are finding ourselves, quite frankly, in- in a situation where some of the foundations that have governed our relationship for a long time, that you know, integrated supply chains are good, that working together on strategic issues is- are important, that looking out for each other in important ways is- is a number one priority. I think in some quarters, Canadians feel that those foundations are being tested. We will adapt. We will make it through, I have no doubt about that, but it’s yeah, it’s a complicated time.

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