• Phase One was retail. • Phase two was distribution. • Phase three was the space between manufacturing and distribution. • Phase four is raw material supply to manufacturing. U.S. food processing, and manufacturing is now operating at full capacity.

By now the majority of protein manufacturing has caught up. Beef and pork should be solid at your local market; however, chicken, while available, will lag to full replenishment capacity in the protein sector. The reason is: “chicken” is an ingredient component in many shelf stable items (soup etc.), that are still short as the manufacturing sector runs at capacity.

We enter a phase where grain commodities are now arriving at manufacturing.

♦ Between the Appalachian mountain range and the Colorado mountain range there is a massive amount of grain, meal, and derivative (farming) product generated. Thin component inventories, now exhausted at processing, are the cause of the current manufacturing supply chain stress… This lag will take a little longer.

There are train-loads of grain products heading both East and West daily; but there is a process of background prioritization taking place within the grain (total), flour, meal, rice and dried beans sector. The downstream ingredient system has a long-term and short-term priority schedule.

Example: total flour is prioritized to industrial bakeries for the production of bread. Nationally retail or consumer flour shortages are caused by prioritization in this part of the supply-chain.

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Thank you Greg Abbott.  This is the first smart move by a state leader recognizing the realities of the system at hand.  Texas Governor Greg Abbott has signed a waiver allowing restaurants to sell their bulk food directly to retail customers.

Amid all of the reactionary decisions by elected officials, this is a smart, and temporary move that can take pressure off the retail supply chain.  Hopefully others will follow.

Leadership is often about recognizing the unique landscape and taking ‘outside the box’ action in response to current conditions.  Greg Abbott recognizes there are two distinctly different supply-chains, and this modification can open one distribution valve.

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To understand the purpose and specific need of the latest Executive Order CTH can share a familiar analogy to help better conceptualize the issues.

There are several supply chains that are being affected by the coronavirus mitigation effort; two specific sectors involve healthcare products and food distribution. Today’s executive order targets both.

As a network of U.S. manufacturing continues to increase the production of healthcare products, masks, shields, ventilators and medicines; any hoarding or pricing opportunism around those items is obviously a matter of great interest for overall public health.

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There are many people, many voters, simply stunned at how the Democrats are trying to use the COVID-19 economic emergency to add unrelated ideological elements to the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act.

Senator Tom Cotton walks through some of the items the Democrats are demanding before they will allow economic relief to U.S. companies and workers. MUST WATCH:

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White House Trade and Manufacturing Policy Advisor Peter Navarro discusses some of the more granular details behind the COVID-19 mitigation strategy.   The policies are designed to counter the economic impacts, and then use a tactical approach toward the challenges in the supply chain for medical supply needs.

Navarro discusses some of the private sector shifts in production and manufacturing to generate medical supply needs as an outcome of the defense production act.

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Math is math. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to do the math, understand the logistics of the current extreme demand, recognize that fixed assets are limited, and realize if you shut down essential services for truckers the total supply-chain will suffer.

On March 17th Pennsylvania officially shuttered all Turnpike service plazas in response to coronavirus concerns. However, the decision was ridiculously short-sighted as long-haul and regional Truckers depend on fuel stations, bathrooms and restaurants along the route. Thankfully PA officials realized their error and reopened the service stations yesterday.

PA Authority – The Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission has agreed to reopen all of service plazas that they shuttered earlier this week for Coronavirus.

All 17 closed service plazas are set to reopen at 7 a.m. on Friday, March 20, according to a news release from the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission.

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Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue has an important message about the U.S. food sector. With shortages in the retail food (grocer) sector the last part is key…. “don’t take more than you would normally use in a week or two.”  WATCH:

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The aspect that most models are missing, is the pressure on the supply-chain will not soon end.  The restaurant sector (‘food away from home’) appears to be operating at far less than half capacity (perhaps as low as 25%) due to coronavirus restrictions.  As long as those food consumers remain shifted into the retail supply chain (food at home), there are going to be long-term shortages due to capacity constraints and distribution limits.

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Former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett is returning to the administration as a senior economic advisor to President Trump during the COVID-19 response.

Kevin Hassett is very sharp and a happy warrior by disposition.  Hassett was excellent as CEA Chair and no doubt his rejoining the economic team with an advisory position to President Trump will bring a great voice back to the crew.

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We are entering into phase-3 of the supply-chain distribution shortages within the retail food sector.   Phase-1 was immediate impact.  Phase-2 was the spread to the warehouse and distribution.  Phase-3 impacts are further upstream, processing & suppliers.

The current shelf-stock shortages are not soon to reconcile; however, the shortages are still in the regional phase.  Meaning there is a big difference in the availability of products depending on the type of distribution network, and the specific retailers, in your area.

The ‘spider-spread effect’ happens when large metropolitan chains, serving large urban and megalopolis areas (1 million+ residents in 50 mile radius), reach a critical shortage in their supply network; and those residents then drive distances to locate their needs.  This is going on now across the country as regional supply chains try to keep up with demand.

Most consumers are not aware food consumption in the U.S. is now a 50/50 proposition. Approximately 50% of all food was consumed “outside the home” (or food away from home), and 50% of all food consumed was food “inside the home” (grocery shoppers).

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…there had to be a point where the value of the Wall St economy surpassed the value of the Main St economy… Part I Here

We now look forward, and consider the question: How would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) if the U.S. stock market was ever forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?

To first answer the “how” question, we must visit the “why” question. Why would the multinational financial underwriters want to reset their valuations?

Obviously, the global financial system does not act altruistically. What would motivate the global wealth valuation authority (various market investment indexes) to want, or need, a reset.

The answer to the “why” question might not be as challenging as it appears.

First, there has been a seismic shift in how the world looks at the economic exploitation of multinational systems, or globalism.  See Bernie Sanders?  See those yellow vests in France?  See what happened with the U.K. Brexit referendum?  See the shrinking EU influence?  See the open/public confrontation and push-back against China? See Trump? All examples are consequences of the rise of economic nationalism.

Secondly, the original Wall Street corporate motive (during decades of mergers and acquisitions) to shift product manufacturing to Southeast Asia (ASEAN nations) was driven by a lower cost of overall business, higher profit margins and greed.

As a direct outcome economic wealth was shifted from the U.S. to ASEAN nations, and particularly China. Low wages, low regulation, cheap operational costs, incentives and subsidies from Asia equals cheap TV’s, sneakers, furniture and durable goods.

Even with high fuel prices and overseas shipping costs, there was a big difference between U.S. and ASEAN manufacturing costs.  As hundreds of U.S. Wall Street multinationals chased profits the rust-belt was created.

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