Former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett is returning to the administration as a senior economic advisor to President Trump during the COVID-19 response.

Kevin Hassett is very sharp and a happy warrior by disposition.  Hassett was excellent as CEA Chair and no doubt his rejoining the economic team with an advisory position to President Trump will bring a great voice back to the crew.

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We are entering into phase-3 of the supply-chain distribution shortages within the retail food sector.   Phase-1 was immediate impact.  Phase-2 was the spread to the warehouse and distribution.  Phase-3 impacts are further upstream, processing & suppliers.

The current shelf-stock shortages are not soon to reconcile; however, the shortages are still in the regional phase.  Meaning there is a big difference in the availability of products depending on the type of distribution network, and the specific retailers, in your area.

The ‘spider-spread effect’ happens when large metropolitan chains, serving large urban and megalopolis areas (1 million+ residents in 50 mile radius), reach a critical shortage in their supply network; and those residents then drive distances to locate their needs.  This is going on now across the country as regional supply chains try to keep up with demand.

Most consumers are not aware food consumption in the U.S. is now a 50/50 proposition. Approximately 50% of all food was consumed “outside the home” (or food away from home), and 50% of all food consumed was food “inside the home” (grocery shoppers).

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…there had to be a point where the value of the Wall St economy surpassed the value of the Main St economy… Part I Here

We now look forward, and consider the question: How would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) if the U.S. stock market was ever forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?

To first answer the “how” question, we must visit the “why” question. Why would the multinational financial underwriters want to reset their valuations?

Obviously, the global financial system does not act altruistically. What would motivate the global wealth valuation authority (various market investment indexes) to want, or need, a reset.

The answer to the “why” question might not be as challenging as it appears.

First, there has been a seismic shift in how the world looks at the economic exploitation of multinational systems, or globalism.  See Bernie Sanders?  See those yellow vests in France?  See what happened with the U.K. Brexit referendum?  See the shrinking EU influence?  See the open/public confrontation and push-back against China? See Trump? All examples are consequences of the rise of economic nationalism.

Secondly, the original Wall Street corporate motive (during decades of mergers and acquisitions) to shift product manufacturing to Southeast Asia (ASEAN nations) was driven by a lower cost of overall business, higher profit margins and greed.

As a direct outcome economic wealth was shifted from the U.S. to ASEAN nations, and particularly China. Low wages, low regulation, cheap operational costs, incentives and subsidies from Asia equals cheap TV’s, sneakers, furniture and durable goods.

Even with high fuel prices and overseas shipping costs, there was a big difference between U.S. and ASEAN manufacturing costs.  As hundreds of U.S. Wall Street multinationals chased profits the rust-belt was created.

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A very big picture discussion requires a considerable baseline.

The stock market is not the U.S. economy; the stock market is an investment instrument that determines valuations of economic activity company by company. The valuation is considerably arbitrary, based on the determinations of the arbiters (investors). This is empirically true.

However, that said, how would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) …if the U.S. stock market was every forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?    Enter “Coronavirus”.

Four years ago CTH first explained a new way to look at the U.S. economic system and how Main Street was/is disconnected from Wall Street.  We presented a metaphor to explain. Before going deeper into the discussion of tomorrow; and at the request of several people who now accept the era of “deglobalization” is upon us,  I first present that prior reference & then will use this as the baseline to describe what could come next.

There is a key phrase at the fulcrum of everything past:

…there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).

What we are going to outline in part II is the possibility what happens when this natural truism is reversed.  The objective is to answer: How, specifically would Wall Street reset its evaluative systems if Main Street once again emerged as the priority?

But first, a baseline revisit is needed.

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President Trump, Vice-President Pence and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin lead the daily coronavirus briefing on COVID-19 mitigation efforts from the White House.

[Video Below – Transcript Added]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much, everyone. Thank you. Progress being made. And I appreciate you all joining us.

Last night, the FDA announced groundbreaking new policies to further increase testing very substantially so. All states can now authorize tests developed and used within their borders, in addition to the FDA. So the states are very much involved. They have been involved from the beginning. But we’re stepping it up as much as we can, and the testing procedures are going well.

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Earlier today President Trump held a conference call with a who’s-who of executives in the restaurant industry.  One of the key aspects to the call was President Trump asking the CEO’s to continue food service operations despite the dine-in closures.  The reason is simple: the alternative, the retail supermarket industry nationwide, cannot compensate for the closure of restaurants in the total food production supply chain. [Ground Reports]

(WHITE HOUSE) – Today, President Donald J. Trump spoke by telephone with restaurant executives representing hundreds of thousands of hardworking Americans about the response to COVID-19. The executives thanked President Trump and his Administration for the whole-of-government response and for his efforts to ensure the public has the most accurate and up-to-date information.

The President reminded the restaurants that they can help flatten the curve and slow the spread of this virus in communities across the country by encouraging their customers to use drive-thru, pickup, or delivery options.

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By today the closure of dine-in restaurants should be in full swing across almost all areas. Understandably there’s going to be an operational lag as many of those restaurants don’t have the systems or equipment in place for exclusive take-out or pick-up services (ie. carry-out containers); though hopefully many are responding quickly to the changes.

The upstream consequence of the restaurant disruption is going to be even more pressure on grocery outlets already seeing additional traffic. Many people now shifting from meals “outside the home”, back to the more traditional “home-cooked” meals etc. Which brings up the question of the retail supermarket capacity to meet that extra demand.

This coronavirus event is like a nationwide pre-Hurricane shopping experience.

There have been numerous reports of wide-scale shortages in retail food markets. On the positive side this experienced supply chain has the ability to scale-up very fast (depending on region). However, on a national scale this is the first time the entire country has needed this level of increased retail food distribution simultaneously. To cope with the volume most stores appear to have reduced their hours of operation.

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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses what economic options the U.S. government has to mitigate and assist businesses and individuals dealing with the financial impacts of coronavirus.

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Note to Mr. Kudlow: Do not trust Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Fauci is a purposeful panic seller. His goals are not the administrations goals.

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Canada completes the North American cycle with their ratification of the USMCA to replace NAFTA. Mexico and the U.S. ratified the new trade agreement last year and January respectively.  The Canadian parliament did so yesterday.

CANADA – Canada on Friday formally approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), taking the last legislative step to implementation of the deal to replace the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The trade deal, ratified by the Mexican legislature last June and by Congress in January, was formally ratified by the Canadian Senate Friday, and shortly thereafter received royal assent, the Canadian governor general’s approval.

The deal was passed through the legislature before Parliament shut down for five weeks in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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It took some digging but we found it. The 2020 Coronavirus Response Act is H.R.6201 [SEE HERE].

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is saying the Democrats and White House have made an agreement to pass the content of the Coronavirus Response Act.  However, there is no confirmation from the White House (yet).

President Trump is meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in the White House right now.

WASHINGTON – House Democrats and the Trump administration reached agreement on a coronavirus response package Friday after a day of grueling negotiations, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.

“We are proud to have reached an agreement with the Administration to resolve outstanding challenges, and now will soon pass the Families First Coronavirus Response Act,” she wrote to Democrats after hours of back-and-forth with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

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