A very big picture discussion requires a considerable baseline.

The stock market is not the U.S. economy; the stock market is an investment instrument that determines valuations of economic activity company by company. The valuation is considerably arbitrary, based on the determinations of the arbiters (investors). This is empirically true.

However, that said, how would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) …if the U.S. stock market was every forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?    Enter “Coronavirus”.

Four years ago CTH first explained a new way to look at the U.S. economic system and how Main Street was/is disconnected from Wall Street.  We presented a metaphor to explain. Before going deeper into the discussion of tomorrow; and at the request of several people who now accept the era of “deglobalization” is upon us,  I first present that prior reference & then will use this as the baseline to describe what could come next.

There is a key phrase at the fulcrum of everything past:

…there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).

What we are going to outline in part II is the possibility what happens when this natural truism is reversed.  The objective is to answer: How, specifically would Wall Street reset its evaluative systems if Main Street once again emerged as the priority?

But first, a baseline revisit is needed.

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President Trump, Vice-President Pence and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin lead the daily coronavirus briefing on COVID-19 mitigation efforts from the White House.

[Video Below – Transcript Added]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much, everyone. Thank you. Progress being made. And I appreciate you all joining us.

Last night, the FDA announced groundbreaking new policies to further increase testing very substantially so. All states can now authorize tests developed and used within their borders, in addition to the FDA. So the states are very much involved. They have been involved from the beginning. But we’re stepping it up as much as we can, and the testing procedures are going well.

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Earlier today President Trump held a conference call with a who’s-who of executives in the restaurant industry.  One of the key aspects to the call was President Trump asking the CEO’s to continue food service operations despite the dine-in closures.  The reason is simple: the alternative, the retail supermarket industry nationwide, cannot compensate for the closure of restaurants in the total food production supply chain. [Ground Reports]

(WHITE HOUSE) – Today, President Donald J. Trump spoke by telephone with restaurant executives representing hundreds of thousands of hardworking Americans about the response to COVID-19. The executives thanked President Trump and his Administration for the whole-of-government response and for his efforts to ensure the public has the most accurate and up-to-date information.

The President reminded the restaurants that they can help flatten the curve and slow the spread of this virus in communities across the country by encouraging their customers to use drive-thru, pickup, or delivery options.

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By today the closure of dine-in restaurants should be in full swing across almost all areas. Understandably there’s going to be an operational lag as many of those restaurants don’t have the systems or equipment in place for exclusive take-out or pick-up services (ie. carry-out containers); though hopefully many are responding quickly to the changes.

The upstream consequence of the restaurant disruption is going to be even more pressure on grocery outlets already seeing additional traffic. Many people now shifting from meals “outside the home”, back to the more traditional “home-cooked” meals etc. Which brings up the question of the retail supermarket capacity to meet that extra demand.

This coronavirus event is like a nationwide pre-Hurricane shopping experience.

There have been numerous reports of wide-scale shortages in retail food markets. On the positive side this experienced supply chain has the ability to scale-up very fast (depending on region). However, on a national scale this is the first time the entire country has needed this level of increased retail food distribution simultaneously. To cope with the volume most stores appear to have reduced their hours of operation.

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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses what economic options the U.S. government has to mitigate and assist businesses and individuals dealing with the financial impacts of coronavirus.

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Note to Mr. Kudlow: Do not trust Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Fauci is a purposeful panic seller. His goals are not the administrations goals.

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Canada completes the North American cycle with their ratification of the USMCA to replace NAFTA. Mexico and the U.S. ratified the new trade agreement last year and January respectively.  The Canadian parliament did so yesterday.

CANADA – Canada on Friday formally approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), taking the last legislative step to implementation of the deal to replace the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The trade deal, ratified by the Mexican legislature last June and by Congress in January, was formally ratified by the Canadian Senate Friday, and shortly thereafter received royal assent, the Canadian governor general’s approval.

The deal was passed through the legislature before Parliament shut down for five weeks in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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It took some digging but we found it. The 2020 Coronavirus Response Act is H.R.6201 [SEE HERE].

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is saying the Democrats and White House have made an agreement to pass the content of the Coronavirus Response Act.  However, there is no confirmation from the White House (yet).

President Trump is meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in the White House right now.

WASHINGTON – House Democrats and the Trump administration reached agreement on a coronavirus response package Friday after a day of grueling negotiations, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.

“We are proud to have reached an agreement with the Administration to resolve outstanding challenges, and now will soon pass the Families First Coronavirus Response Act,” she wrote to Democrats after hours of back-and-forth with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

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Most people are aware the Wuhan coronavirus has become an economic contagion within China. However, the scale of the contraction is only now being quantified and the data doesn’t match the visible reality.
When evaluating the data showing drops in exports from China is worthwhile to consider the lack of visible supply-chain disruption formerly predicted by global economic “analysts”.  According to Reuters; to the extent data can be gathered from within a closed communist system; total exports from China dropped 17.2% in January and February.

The lack of factory production has cut the estimated growth rate within China by half.  However, is that a cause?  – or – Is that a cover?  For decades corporations have moved to a supply chain process known as Just-In-Time (JIT) inventory.
If Chinese component manufactured goods were part of a critical corporate supply chain, and with more than 30-days of source disruption quantified, there would be impacts by now. Where are the crippled customers?  There are no measurable, demonstrable, citations for missing component parts making downstream finished goods impossible.  There are lots of anticipatory declarations, but no shortage has materialized.
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7:30pm – THE PRESIDENT participates in a working dinner with the President of the Federative Republic of Brazil

White House – President Donald J. Trump will meet President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, March 7, 2020. President Trump and President Bolsonaro will discuss opportunities to build a more prosperous, secure, and democratic world.

As leaders of the Hemisphere’s two largest economies, they will also discuss opportunities for restoring democracy in Venezuela, bringing peace to the Middle East, implementing pro-growth trade policies, and investing in infrastructure. The President will use this meeting as an opportunity to thank Brazil for its strong alliance with the United States. (link)

Jumpin’ ju-ju bones.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics highlights an excellent jobs report for February with 273,000 new jobs added; and an upward revision of 85,000 job gains in December and January.  Total new jobs with revisions 358,000; that’s exceptional.
Main Street USA is very strong, exceptionally strong; and the fundamentals of the U.S. economy show balance and overall strength.  Keep in mind, while all of this growth is happening the full impacts of the renegotiated trade deals have yet to kick in.

Highlighting the strength in the overall economy the construction sector added 42,000 jobs in February, following a similar gain in January (+49,000). In 2019, construction job gains averaged 13,000 per month. In February, employment gains occurred in specialty trade contractors (+26,000) and residential building (+10,000). This specific metric is important because it highlights economic expansion from U.S. workers and households having financial strength for home purchasing.

(BLS DATA) Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate remains at 3.5 percent. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.0 percent.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 37,000 from +147,000 to +184,000, and the change for January was revised up by 48,000 from +225,000 to +273,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 85,000 higher than previously reported. (link)

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