Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discusses the strength of the U.S. economy, and the apparent disconnect between Main Street’s growth and Wall Street’s multinational risk exposure.  [Pro Tip: go back and read the dimensional shift]
Secretary Mnuchin (correctly) stays away from discussing the federal reserve and highlights the strength of Main Street.   CTH readers well understand what is driving this dynamic; and it will continue until 30-years of divergence is corrected, and parity achieved.

.
Traditional economic principles have revolved around the Macro and Micro with interventionist influences driven by GDP (Gross Domestic Product, or total economic output), interest rates, inflation rates and federally controlled monetary policy designed to steer the broad economic outcomes.
Additionally, in large measure, the various data points which underline Macro principles have been viewed as two dimensional. As the X-Axis goes thus, the Y-Axis responds accordingly… and so it goes…. and so it has historically gone.  This ain’t that.
(more…)

A few days ago many critics were concerned over an announced pledge of U.S. State Department funding ($4.8 billion) for security and economic development in Mexico. However, CTH noted the approach was likely not what it seemed.
Those who followed the USMCA construct closely noted that U.S. President Trump (through Jared Kushner) and Mexican President Lopez-Obrador (through Jesus Seade) were doing something much bigger than a trade agreement; they were structuring an entirely new U.S-Mexico economic alliance.
With increased investment in central America by the Chinese government; and with Venezuela in a state of vulnerability to becoming a proxy therein; and with Brazil taking a more nationalistic approach; a completely new partnership which focused heavily on domestic security and economics was taking shape between the U.S. and Mexico. Throughout 2017 and 2018 the U.S. media was oblivious to it.
Then, two days ago, the U.S. State Department made public the principles of an economic alliance between the United States and Mexico. [See Here] The outline should be familiar: Economic Security is National Security.
Today Department of Homeland Security chief Kirstjen Nielsen told lawmakers that migrants heading to the southwest border to seek asylum in the United States will have to wait in Mexico until their claims are processed, under an agreement between the two countries:

(more…)

Economic security is national security… In July 2017 President Trump traveled to Poland to attend the Three Seas Initiative Summit, a gathering of countries bordering the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Sea (Poland, Austria, Croatia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia).
The primary purpose of the visit was to discuss security initiatives including how to diminish Russian influence through a cooperative agreement over energy.  President Trump took the SME’s, and delivered a speech in Warsaw, Poland:

[…] “President Duda and I have just come from an incredibly successful meeting with the leaders participating in the Three Seas Initiative. To the citizens of this great region, America is eager to expand our partnership with you. We welcome stronger ties of trade and commerce as you grow your economies. And we are committed to securing your access to alternate sources of energy, so Poland and its neighbors are never again held hostage to a single supplier of energy.”

Well, today a massive multi-billion energy contract for the United States sale and Poland purchase of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was announced.  While financial terms were not disclosed, the agreement is for the sale and purchase of approximately 2.7 billion cubic meters per year (after regasification) – enough natural gas to meet about 15 percent of Poland’s daily needs.  The contract is for 20 years of purchases.

SAN DIEGO, Dec. 19, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — Port Arthur LNG, LLC, a subsidiary of Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE), and the Polish Oil & Gas Company (PGNiG) today announced they have entered into a definitive 20-year sale-and-purchase agreement for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Port Arthur LNG liquefaction-export facility under development in Jefferson County, Texas.

(more…)

Much misplaced anger is visible.  President Trump wants the southern border wall; he is being opposed by every interest who doesn’t want it.  The people in DC who are opposed to border security, are the people who write the laws.  I’m not talking about congress; I’m talking about the real people who actually write the laws, the lobbyists.
Right now Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are writing a short-term continuing resolution to fund government and avoid a shutdown.
They know President Trump is quite comfy with a shutdown.
Why would republican Mitch McConnell take such an action that puts the republican President in a position of opposition and compromise?
Because he wants to, that’s why.
President Trump said he wouldn’t sign another CR that didn’t fund the border wall.  Right now Mitch and Chuck are writing a CR that doesn’t fully fund the border wall.  Why would Mitch McConnell do that? Because he want’s to that’s why.  UniParty !
Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and Paul Ryan are working to put a take it or leave it bill in front of the President and force him to accept it.  Republicans currently control the House and Senate.  Why would McConnell and Ryan put President Trump into that position?  Because they want to, that’s why.
That’s who you should be mad at, not President Trump.
(more…)

CEA Charman Kevin Hassett is a happy MAGAnomic warrior as he continues to explain the disconnect between the strength of the U.S. economy -vs- the world; and how the disconnect impacts the multinationals (Stock Market).

.
The interview is in two segments. Part II is below:
(more…)

CTH has pointed, repeatedly, toward a very specific economic and financial dynamic  because President Trump is uniquely focused on Main Street’s “real economy“.
Everything happening in/around the financial markets is very predictable when you focus on understanding the principles of Main Street MAGAnomics and how those basic principles diverge from Wall Street’s “paper economy”.
President Trump is clawing back American wealth; inch by inch… bit by bit.  This is the full monty.  This is economic nationalism. This is for all the marbles.
This is it.
Everything is happening in a very predictable sequence. Few understand the MAGAnomic reset, and what was predicted to happen in the space between disconnecting a Wall Street economic engine (globalism and multinationals) and restarting a Main Street economic engine (nationalism/America-First).  In 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 CTH explained where we would be today. With current Wall Street events, perhaps it is worthwhile remembering the dynamic.
(more…)

If you’ve followed the MAGAnomic discussion threads you will likely appreciate this interview much more than the typical Fox Business viewer.
In this interview White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett discusses the recent rise in retail sales and why he is optimistic about GDP growth.
Additionally, at the 03:00 point of the interview he is questioned about the disconnect between the exceptional growth in the U.S. economy -vs- the current status of the Wall Street stock market.  Hassett points directly to the ‘multinational‘ disconnect.

.
Via Commerce Dept – “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2018 were $513.5 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent from the previous month, and 4.2 percent above November 2017. Total sales for the September 2018 through November 2018 period were up 4.3 percent from the same period a year ago.”
Two-thirds of U.S. GDP stems from U.S. consumer sales. Growth of more than 4% year-over-year is excellent and forms the basis for the increases in forecast GDP.
(more…)

The CFO of Huawei has been released on bail pending her extradition hearing to the United States. Ms. Meng will have to wear and ankle monitor and travel with security agents until her next hearing on February 6th.

(Via NBC) A Vancouver judge set a $10 million CAD bail ($7.5 million U.S.) for Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou Tuesday, capping a week of increasing trade tensions and strong market reactions around the dispute between the Department of Justice and one of China’s largest hardware companies.
The United States had asked the Vancouver court to deny bail for Meng, whose father is a billionaire and a founder of Huawei, calling her a flight risk. Canada has been expected to extradite Meng to the United States over charges that the company improperly took payments from Iran in violation of sanctions against the country.

(more…)

Early this morning China transmitted and interesting tweet position that was/is a transparent display of their panda mask. In essence the panda play was a call for team USA to drop the zero-sum outlook and seek a win/win. Given the historic nature of Chinese negotiations the tweet was rather funny. However, it does highlight the dance.
Additionally, a few hours later President Trump tweeted about ongoing U.S-China trade discussions and something to watch for:
Moments ago we received the first indications of Chairman Xi’s panda play:

(Via Wall Street Journal) China agreed to reduce tariffs on U.S. autos to 15%, down from 40% currently, during a phone call with U.S. officials that opened the latest round of trade talks aimed at settling a trade dispute festering between the world’s two largest economic powers, according to a person familiar with the matter.

(more…)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has updated the data for the number of jobs that are available in the U.S. economy.  More than 7 million jobs are available for an estimated unemployed labor force (job seekers) of approximately 6 million.
Additionally, what is interesting to note is the sectors where the rate of available jobs is increasing the most. [See Table A – as below]  What you can clearly see is the rate of highest job openings is within the Main Street economy (blue and white collar).

To consider the state of the economy; and contrast the punditry opinion of the economic strength therein; it is important to look at what types of jobs are growing.
(more…)