White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox Business to discuss the purpose and intent of the USMCA and the ongoing China trade discussions.
What Navarro skims upon is the heart of the economic purpose behind the USMCA as requested by President Trump and constructed by USTR Lighthizer. The USMCA establishes an internal North American manufacturing system; this provides the alternative for Asian manufacturing of goods for the U.S. market.
This manufacturing system is why Mexico is “all-in” to support the USMCA. Additionally, the economic benefits within the system as constructed is exactly why Mexican President Lopez-Obrador is willing to pressure House democrats to ratify and also back-up President Trump on other geopolitical issues (immigration controls etc).

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On the Stock Market dynamic. Currently there is a great deal of investment capital waiting to see where the money should be placed. Investment in China has dropped dramatically; investment in Southeast Asia shifted, but new investment is pending this outcome. Multinationals are calculating the TCP (Total Cost of Production), and if the new USMCA is passed there will be a triggering effect of North American investment because the uncertainty will be eliminated.
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Following their bilateral meeting, U.S. President Trump and Italian President Mattarella held a joint press conference.  President Trump disassembled the U.S. media preferred narrative on Syria.  [Video and Transcript Below]
Pay close attention to the remarks about trade and the WTO, big stuff is about to happen as the Brexit plans of Trump/Johnson kick in soon. Canadian election Oct 21st.  Watch the international trade moves over the next 45 days.  Things will shake out quickly. Bigly.

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. Today, it is my honor to welcome President Sergio Mattarella of Italy to the White House. We’ve known each other for a while. We’ve dealt with each other for a while. And we’ve had some really great conversations. We’ve had a very productive discussion throughout the day with our staffs and representatives. And I look forward to hosting the President and his daughter, Laura, at a reception for Italian-Americans this evening. I look forward to that very much.
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In the bigger picture… Within the trade team, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is positioned with primary responsibility toward the EU and India. Ross clear-cuts through the politics, explains Trump’s objectives amid the trade proposals, and paves a path for U.S. Trade Rep Bob Lighthizer to engage his counterparts.
India has always been a key strategic nation within the global trade-realignment taking place by the Trump administration.  Under all of the banter, the “Indo-Pacific” strategy is structurally the decoupling of the U.S. from China. As a part of the strategy President Trump has positioned the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as benefactors in manufacturing & trade as an outcome of the U.S. decoupling from China.

However, India has genuine concerns about the global dynamic. Specifically, India is worried about allowing the multinationals to have influence over their economy and social structure. In this regard India is not wrong; their concerns are not unfounded.
We can all see, heck we’ve lived through, massive multinational corporations quickly gaining too much influence; including -eventually- corporate influence over the politics of a nation. That inherently leads to corruption.
When Americans see it in other nations we call it “bribery and corruption”, but when it happens in Washington, DC, we call it “lobbying”; the process is exactly the same.
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Everything about this short news segment has to be devastating to democrat candidates, party leadership, DC politicians and the DNC as a whole.  CNN went to Michigan to interview striking United Auto Workers (GM) about the current state of politics and impeachment of President Trump.  Man-o-man, do the results cut the legs out from the professional political apparatus.
First, in a seismic overall political shift the striking UAW workers support President Trump, not democrats.  Why?  Because President Trump has been calling out GM CEO Mary Barra for not negotiating a win/win.  There is no economic reason for a strike.  Second, the striking workers can see through the insufferable political agenda of the Democrats.  This outcome is devastating to the democrats overall.

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Jumpin’ ju-ju bones – The Trump administration via U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross won a massive $7.5 billion award as an outcome of the World Trade Organization agreeing with the U.S. against the EU and Airbus subsidies.  The WTO arbitrators decision is final and cannot be appealed.
This win sets the stage for President Trump to deploy $7.5 billion in countervailing duties against products from the EU.  Keep in mind, a final WTO ruling means the EU cannot retaliate against any WTO-authorized countermeasures.  The downstream ramifications are very significant. Think about it: at 25% the U.S. could tariff $30 billion in EU goods.

Man, talk about serendipitous timing… But first, here’s the press release from Robert Lighthizer:

Washington, D.C.–  The United States has won the largest arbitration award in World Trade Organization (WTO)  history in its dispute with the European Union over illegal subsidies to Airbus.  This follows four previous panel and appellate reports from 2011-2018 finding that EU subsidies to Airbus break WTO rules.
Today’s decision demonstrates that massive EU corporate welfare has cost American aerospace companies hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenue over the nearly 15 years of litigation.

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Fox News host Maria Bartiromo had Kevin McCarthy and Larry Kudlow on Fox Business to discuss the status of ratification for the USMCA agreement.   After McCarthy outlines the politics of Nancy Pelosi intentionally holding back the ratification vote, and states if the agreement is not passed prior to Thanksgiving it will not be done, Larry Kudlow follows up with a more optimistic outlook.

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Keep in mind, Speaker Pelosi doesn’t know that close trade followers are aware of her deal with Justin Trudeau to hold back on ratification in an blatantly political effort. Here’s Kevin McCarthy’s full interview.
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Housing starts (and permits) have been a long-term key performance indicator for the economic stability and strength of Main Street USA for generations. Across all key metrics, the economics of middle-class America is defined by confidence in housing. A strong housing market reflects worker/purchaser confidence in their economic position.

The U.S. Commerce Department reports today that U.S. housing starts and permits has reached a 12-year-high. [data here] This is a key point because it cuts to the heart of the difference between a thriving Main Street economy and the disconnect surrounding issues with Wall Street (multinational) financial markets.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding surged to more than a 12-year high in August as both single- and multi-family housing construction accelerated, suggesting that lower mortgage rates were finally providing a boost to the struggling housing market.

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This is a topic we have previously discussed.  The current status is unfortunately what CTH previously predicted….  The consequences here are very serious.

Representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, claims a significant number of House Democrats are ready to vote to approve the USMCA trade deal.  However, Nancy Pelosi is holding back the vote.

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Everyone agrees that passage of the USMCA would provide leverage for the U.S. position in both China and EU trade negotiations.  Representative Andy Barr says despite a likely 300+ vote of support, he believes Pelosi is stalling to block that exact leverage.
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The recession-hoping pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations.
The Commerce Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.   These excellent results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)

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The European Central Bank (ECB) announced Thursday an indefinite supply of fresh asset purchases and deeper cuts to interest rates, into negative territory, as it tries to prop up the ailing euro zone economy.  These are EU financial counter-measures to the geopolitical trade realignment triggered by U.S. President Trump.
The EU is driving down the value of their currency in an effort to help prop-up the French and German economies that are dependent on exports.  In essence, the financial and economic positions of the EU and China are connected.  The more pressure the U.S. (Trump administration) puts on China, the less China can purchase from the EU.
With that as the backdrop, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin holds an impromptu press conference outside the White House on China trade, Huawei and the bond market.

 

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