USTR Robert Lighthizer has filed the official notification with the federal register for the increase in Section 301 tariffs from 10% to 25% effective Friday (full pdf below).  Additionally Reuters has exclusive details of the collapse in U.S-China trade talks.
As most CTH readers are aware, Lighthizer has focused heavily on the enforcement mechanisms within the trade talks. [Previous Bookmark] Apparently, when the 150 page draft agreement was presented to the Chinese politburo, Beijing balked at allowing the U.S. to hold controlling enforcement over the trade agreement terms.

The fallback presentation from Vice-Chairman Liu was: we cannot put the binding enforcement mechanisms in writing, you’ll have to ‘trust us’ to honor the agreement; at which time Lighthizer said no-way.

WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) – The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly 150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, according to three U.S. government sources and three private sector sources briefed on the talks.
The document was riddled with reversals by China that undermined core U.S. demands, the sources told Reuters.

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In the aftermath of GM’s announcement to close the Lordstown, Ohio, auto assembly facility, President Trump worked earnestly to get GM to sell the facility and save jobs for the region.  Today President Trump and GM CEO Mary Barra announce the likely sale to Workhorse Group pending UAW union approval.

Washington (AFP) – General Motors Wednesday announced plans to invest $700 million in Ohio and to sell a shuttered plant to a company that makes electric trucks, drawing cheers from President Donald Trump who has assailed the US automaker for cutting American jobs.

“GREAT NEWS FOR OHIO!” Trump tweeted, revealing the details ahead of the company’s official announcement.

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We have discussed the Chinese outlook toward trade and negotiations at great length.  One of the overriding issues has always been the zero-sum disposition of China as it relates to any engagement. To wit: if it does not benefit China, it simply is not done.

Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome.  If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war.  In politics or economics the same perspective is true.  It is a zero-sum outlook. (link)

Against the collapse of trade negotiations, the ideology of Chairman Xi Jinping is showcased today in the first official responses from the Chinese government toward the U.S. initiating tariffs due to Beijing’s duplicitous reversal on prior commitments.

(SCMP) Beijing will not make concessions in trade talks in response to Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats, Chinese state media said in a commentary published a day after the US president announced increases in duties on Chinese goods.
“Things we think are advantageous for us, we will do it even without anyone asking,” People’s Daily reported on its WeChat account on Tuesday.
“Things that are unfavourable to us, no matter how you ask, we will not take any step back. Do not even think about it.”

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CTH shared last week the visibility of a cross-party political and economic horse-trade {Go Deep}.  It would appear some evidence toward that likelihood is gathering:

(Schumer link)

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer want their infrastructure proposal.  President Trump wants a fundamentally realigned geopolitical trade reset.  No doubt Pelosi/Schumer will attempt to get their political win and simultaneously eliminate any Trump win.  However, until the weeds are reached they are each playing their role.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the most excellent April jobs report and the continued forecast for U.S. economic growth.
Director Kudlow points out the greatest current economic benefits are being felt in the blue-collar Main Street sector; and rebuts former Vice President Joe Biden’s comments on the administration policy.

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Well, it looks like the outcome of a horsetrading deal is starting to assemble.  President Trump meeting with Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer et al, to discuss a $2 trillion infrastructure deal.   Despite their schemes and plots this is worth watching:

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Democrats don’t want the baggage of a tax increase heading into 2020… so Schumer punts the financing of the $2 trillion to President Trump; forcing the White House to deal with the dirty part (likelihood a gas tax increase), while Schumer/Pelosi keep clean hands on the high-brow aspect of beautiful infrastructure. That part is politically predictable.
That said, CTH can see the outline a deal where Democrats exchange votes for President Trump’s trade deals (specifically USMCA); to offset the Wall Street Republicans that will vote against the trade agreements; in return for provisions of an infrastructure deal that will benefit Pelosi/Schumer.
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Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, discusses the booming U.S. economy, the future outlook and why he supports the USMCA deal.

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A tale of two contrasting sets of economic priorities. The U.S. economy continues to outpace all economic forecasts.  Recently U.S. retail sales, wage growth and housing starts have exceeded all expectations.  Tomorrows announced U.S. GDP growth is positioned to exceed all previous doomsayer predictions from the professional financial back-bench.
However, the economic results in Canada are going in the opposite direction.  The Bank of Canada cut their GDP forecast from 1.7% to 1.2% today.  A forecast drop of half a percent is a massive drop considering the prior rate of growth was meager at best.

Two full years into the advancement of America-First priorities, the international community is now admitting they can only find growth and value in U.S. investments.

(Via Reuters) […] The [Canadian] central bank now expects economic growth in the first half of 2019 to be lower than anticipated in January, when it released its last monetary policy report, due to a slowdown in Canada’s oil sector, the negative impact of global trade policies and a weaker-than-expected housing sector.

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Council of Economic Advisor Chairman Kevin Hassett appears with Lou Dobbs to discuss the current state of the U.S. economy.  Hassett compares current outcomes to the prior congressional budget office predictions; and shares the results for middle-class growth.

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There’s a term called “zeroing” at the heart of this World Trade Organization decision that supports President Trump, Secretary Ross and USTR Lighthizer.
When an industry product like Canadian softwood lumber is shipped into the U.S. for sale at a lower price than exists in Canada, the U.S. Commerce department calls that “dumping“.  If the Canadian product is the same or higher in the U.S. as it is in Canada there is no dumping.  No dumping is a “zero” or normal price differential; hence “zeroing”.

The Canadian government is subsidizing their lumber industry by allowing tree removal from federal land at discounted rates so long as the lumber is exported.  This made softwood lumber cheaper in the U.S. than in Canada and set up the dumping issue.
[NOTE: This is the same issue with Steel and Aluminum from China]
U.S. lumber mills were going out of business because Canada was dumping subsidized product into the U.S. market at a discounted rate.  As a consequence, in 2017 Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross instituted a 20% tariff on Canadian lumber to protect the U.S. lumber industry.  The tariff is a countervailing duty to offset the Canadian subsidy. ie. “zeroing”.
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