There is some interesting information within the video of President Trump aboard AF-1 as he returns from Florida. However, one of the more interesting aspects comes around 05:39 when asked if he was thinking about extending the tariff pause beyond July 8, 2025.

As noted by President Trump, very firmly, no. There is no reason to extend the deadline for reciprocal tariffs beyond July 8th for any country not in direct negotiations as of that date. Trump intends to just send them a letter outlining the applied tariff rate and that’s it. Done is done. WATCH:

This firm date is why India has extended their negotiation team in Washington DC, and is also the reason why Europe is coming Thursday.  The baseline tariffs are done, everyone pays 10% regardless of a FTA or not.  The reciprocal tariff rate will be applied to those without an FTA effective July 9th.

[The EU (who wants a trade deal now) is eventually going to align with Canada (who will need a trade deal later).  This factors into the current trade dynamic and looms over the decision making.]

Post July 9th, President Trump moves on to other important geopolitical matters with the tariffs as an ancillary weapon for adherence to the new international trade alignment.  Those who want to benefit commit to the U.S. dollar as the trade currency (that’s the reason for India’s announcement today), and trade preferences are then used to shake up the geopolitical alignments.  Watch for how this plays out with Trump’s planned UK visit.

From there, and after the gnashing of teeth settles down, later in the summer President Trump then triggers the USMCA renegotiation phase with Mexico and Canada.   President Trump is essentially ambivalent to the pleas from nations who want to continue their trade imbalance.  This sequencing and outline appears clear; but let’s watch and see what happens.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney welcomes President Donald Trump at the beginning of the working sessions for the G7 assembly in Canada.

During the press availability President Trump notes the G7 used to be the G8, however following the Crimea referendum and President Putin’s response to accept the outcome of the vote, the NATO alliance led by President Barack Obama took Russia out of the group.  President Trump says he “agreed” with Putin’s reaction to the decision.

The G7 speak about Russia consistently at almost every meeting, without a willingness to listen to the voice or opinion of Russia in context to their protestations.  Quite simply it is easier for Italy, Canada, the U.K, France, Germany, Japan and the USA to exist inside an echo-chamber without having their multilateral arguments challenged.  President Trump does not fear the debate of ideas with Russia present in the room, another point of distinction between Trump and the assembly.

Wrong is wrong even if everybody does it; and right is right even if nobody does it. It takes strong confidence to assert a position counter to popular opinion, this is what makes President Donald Trump a transformative political influence.

In the background, President Vladimir Putin is undoubtedly paying attention.

Also, read carefully what President of the European Council António Costa said today:

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[AUTHORS NOTE: Having attended the ASEAN conference to make contacts, after a brief respite at home I spent the past several weeks traveling Southeast Asia to research the likely impact from Trump’s tariff and global trade reset. Visits included manufacturing and distribution facilities in the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and South Korea. What I will share with you in the next few months is an overview from direct first-hand discussions, contrast against the MSM financial media outline.]

The predictable doomsday Wall Street Journal narrative includes a forecast for a massive drop in exports from China as shipping conglomerates begin to outline a drop in trans-pacific sea cargo and container carriers.

What I would say to concerned Americans is to filter out the political narrative and remind yourself of the expanded footprint throughout SE Asia that Beijing has already established.  Chinese companies, many of them subsidized by the CCP, are pre-positioned to begin transnational shipping. I have witnessed it first-hand.  However, here’s the WSJ narrative as it begins.

WSJ – The number of ships sailing from China to the U.S. laden with clothes, electronics, furniture and other goods is plunging, as an accelerating number of cargoes are canceled.

The scrapped sailings come after the Trump administration ratcheted up tariffs on China while giving a three-month reprieve on punitive levies for much of the rest of the world.

At the Port of Los Angeles, one of America’s biggest gateways for imports from China, executive director Gene Seroka told port officials Thursday that he expects a 35% drop in import volumes in two weeks “as essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers has ceased.”

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The decades long relationship between former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Donald Trump permeates through a recent announcement that Japan will be the first nation to enter the new era of trade negotiations with the United States.

Shinzo Abe was assassinated in July 2022, as he traveled throughout Japan gaining support for increased national military development.  As businessmen and later politicians Donald Trump and Shinzo Abe (RIP) had a decades long friendship grounded in mutual respect and competition.

[SOURCE]

To understand the dynamic of President Trump giving the nation of Japan the position as the first nation to enter new trade negotiations, a high honor, is to understand the business relationship between the U.S and Japan in the post-World War II (40 yr) period between 1950 and 1990.  The formative years for both Japanese industry and President Trump’s business empire.

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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was asked for his first impression of President Donald Trump at the conclusion of their first meeting.  You could hear a pin drop as the White House press pool listens to the respect delivered.  WATCH:

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Regarding the politics of the Japanese military aspect to the reply.  It is the legacy of assassinated Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was a close and dear friend of President Trump, that set Japan on the path to rebuilding their military and independent national security.  PM Abe was crossing the country to talk about the need for a newly built military that would provide American defense forces the ability to draw down.  PM Ishiba is continuing that legacy initiative.

RIP Shinzo Abe. He is greatly missed.

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President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hold a press conference in the White House at the conclusion of their bilateral meeting.  Livestream Links Below:

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Each year on December 7, we honor and remember the 2,403 service members and civilians who were killed during the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.  A further 1,178 people were injured in the attack, which permanently sank two U.S. Navy battleships (the USS Arizona and the USS Utah) and destroyed 188 aircraft.

Today is the 83rd anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Pearl Harbor Events Page

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Suspicious Cat smells some possible streamlining and downsizing afoot.

Not only has President Trump announced the nomination of Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary, but he has also announced that Lutnick will carry the role and “responsibility for the Office of the United States Trade Representative” (USTR).

[LINK]

Perhaps in the second term President Trump and Howard Lutnick are going to fold the USTR into the Dept of Commerce?  Interesting.

Hopefully, Howard Lutnick, like Wilbur Ross, will keep the U.S. Chamber of Commerce blocked from influence over the upcoming trade discussions and potential trade agreements.  We note that former USTR Lighthizer was part of the transition discussion, and it seems odd his name has not surfaced…. yet.

Regardless, Howard Lutnick is an excellent choice for all the reasons previously outlined.

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When I say the cleaving is becoming tenuous, do not take that expression to indicate the Western global alliance will back down, they will not.  However, as the fracturing of the global economic systems cleave into two very distinct formations, the citizens forced to live in the Western control system are going to experience a secondary position of life that will be entirely new.  Within that dynamic, the political leaders are increasingly isolated; that’s the real ‘non-pretending’ story as expressed.

We have followed this modern construct around the issue of energy production for quite a while.  More recently, those who control the systems have become more desperate because the consequences have become far more visible.

In the big picture the world is separating, cleaving into two polar economic regions based on energy use.  The yellow team, following the WEF climate change agenda and deploying all economic tools to shift wealth and control populations; the carbon tax is at the end of this rainbow.  The grey team are continuing to exploit traditional oil, coal and gas development and provide cheap and abundant energy products; economic prosperity is at the end of this managed transition.

Now, we are entering a phase of extreme consequence.  This is the inflection point when the Western Alliance is most vulnerable, because the people affected by the design are not happy with the outcomes so far.  The BRICS+ and traditional energy development nations are gaining geopolitical influence.  Can the Western Alliance keep their citizens complacent?  That’s the question.

LONDON — World leaders will touch down in Dubai next week for a climate change conference they’re billing yet again as the final off-ramp before catastrophe. But war, money squabbles and political headaches back home are already crowding the fate of the planet from the agenda.

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Some economic data released by the land of the rising sun points to a larger global weakness in manufacturing demand.   Within the data year-over-year exports from Japan fell in July by 0.3%, which is the first time since 2021 the contraction was noted.

Digging a little deeper, the weakness in Japanese exports is driven primarily by a decline in exports to China of 14.3% in July, which follows a 10.9% decline in June.  Japan is a component supplier to China, which would indicate the demand for Chinese products globally is substantially less than Beijing has previously admitted.

That said, Japan’s direct export of finished goods to the U.S. actually increased 13.5%, mostly driven by the export of electric vehicles.

However, 13.5% is identical to the overall decrease in Japanese imports.

Essentially, component parts to China are down, but completed finished goods to the U.S. are up.  Overall, the results from Japan point to a soft overall global economic status, the result of continued contraction of Western economic activity.

TOKYO, Aug 17 (Reuters) – Japan’s exports fell in July for the first time in nearly 2-1/2 years, dragged down by faltering demand for light oil and chip-making equipment, underlining concerns about a global recession as demand in key markets such as China weaken.

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