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USMCA Update – Rep. Riggleman Says "Likely" Passage – Rep. Barr says Only if before Oct 21st – Senator Ernst Says "Not Likely"…

This is a topic we have previously discussed.  The current status is unfortunately what CTH previously predicted….  The consequences here are very serious.

Representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, claims a significant number of House Democrats are ready to vote to approve the USMCA trade deal.  However, Nancy Pelosi is holding back the vote.


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Everyone agrees that passage of the USMCA would provide leverage for the U.S. position in both China and EU trade negotiations.  Representative Andy Barr says despite a likely 300+ vote of support, he believes Pelosi is stalling to block that exact leverage.
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UPDATE: More Details Surface Surrounding Arrest of Senior Canadian Intelligence Official…

Mercedes Stephenson from Global News has done some excellent follow-up coverage on the arrest of RCMP Intelligence Director Cameron Ortis.  Mr. Ortis is facing seven serious charges of intelligence violations including obtaining information to pass to a “foreign entity.”  The intelligence compromise is the biggest scandal in “a generation”.
New evidence shows the arrest was a result of a 2018 international intelligence operation that targeted the encrypted communications service known as “Phantom Secure”.
A man named Victor Ramos was the CEO of Phantom Secure, an enterprise that provided encrypted communication devices to criminal agents involved in drug smuggling, money laundering and human trafficking.
Ramos was arrested by United States FBI officials in Washington State.  Ramos gave the FBI information about intelligence for sale that was coming from a source deep inside the Five-Eyes intelligence apparatus.  That information led to RCMP Director Cameron Ortis.
The scale of the compromise is still being analyzed. Ortis was director general of the National Intelligence Coordination Centre in Canada. In essence, Ortis was the Canadian equivalent of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (James Clapper/Dan Coats); and had access to the most sensitive intelligence information amid the entire Five-Eyes network that includes: Canada, The United States, The U.K. Australia and New Zealand.
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Unofficial Emissary – Michael Pillsbury Heads to China…

The dance with the dragon is a complex geopolitical relationship between two large economies. China’s view within the dynamic is shaped by their own internal ideology and outlook.  The panda mask dynamic was/is strategic and has served them well for decades; but now President Trump -while engaging a structural confrontation- has used the panda strategy against Beiing’s interests.  China is flummoxed.

Each of President Trump’s trade team members have a specific role; each member also has a specific opponent within the dance:
♦Peter Navarro is the blue-collar hawk. He focuses on the the administration’s Wall Street adversaries; and the U.S. multinationals -American companies- who have aligned their interests with Beijing.  Navarro’s focus is internal to U.S. interests.  Navarro confronts  U.S. corporations, Wall Street interests, who are working against Main Street.
♦Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin carries the economic financial weapons (represents the dollar), and he faces toward global adversaries (IMF, World Bank, European Central Bank etc.) who have also aligned their interests with Beijing and the status quo.
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Best "Recession" Ever – Retail Sales Show "Unexpected" Growth in August -AND- Despite Tariffs Import Prices Drop…

The recession-hoping pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations.
The Commerce Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.   These excellent results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)

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Peter Navarro Outlines Changes in USPS Mail Subsidy for Chinese Shipments…

During an interview with Fox Business Maria Bartiromo White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro outliness how the USPS, the postal system, has been heavily subsidizing “incoming mail of a number of countries to the tune of hundreds of million dollars a year.”  Navarro notes he is meeting with foreign ambassadors and representatives of the State Department at the Blair House in Washington, D.C., to work on changes to the current mail system.
Additionally, Navarro explained that he will be traveling to Geneva, Switzerland, on Sept. 23 for a third “Extraordinary Congress” and there will be two issues/options on the ballot: (1) allows all countries in the postal union to self-declare rates, ending a terminal dues system that costs countries to subsidize incoming mail. (2) A “multispeed approach,” allowing the U.S. to self-declare rates immediately.


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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin: "the China tariff delay is a good will gesture, nothing more"…

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced Thursday an indefinite supply of fresh asset purchases and deeper cuts to interest rates, into negative territory, as it tries to prop up the ailing euro zone economy.  These are EU financial counter-measures to the geopolitical trade realignment triggered by U.S. President Trump.
The EU is driving down the value of their currency in an effort to help prop-up the French and German economies that are dependent on exports.  In essence, the financial and economic positions of the EU and China are connected.  The more pressure the U.S. (Trump administration) puts on China, the less China can purchase from the EU.
With that as the backdrop, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin holds an impromptu press conference outside the White House on China trade, Huawei and the bond market.


 

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Report: PM Boris Johnson Has Simple Plan to Legally Stop Brexit Extension….

If this simple procedure is true, wow… It would mean all of last week’s parliamentary teeth gnashing by the usurping Never-Brexit MP’s was essentially irrelevant.
According to a Reuters report, Prime Minister Boris Johnson simply needs to attach a letter to the Brexit delay legislation saying the U.K. government officially does not request any extension beyond October 31st.  Then ignore it.  That was easy.

(Reuters) – British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has prepared plans to legally stop any Brexit extension, the Daily Telegraph bit.ly/2ZP87Yc reported late on Sunday.
Johnson’s advisers held a meeting on Sunday to counter the strategy to prevent the British parliament’s attempts at enforcing a three-month Brexit extension if no new deal is agreed, the newspaper reported.

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China Exports "Unexpectedly" Fall in August…

The South China Morning Post has an interesting article highlighting that July’s export results from China were likely skewed as U.S. companies proactively made purchases to take advantage of Beijing’s currency devaluation in combination with filling inventory ahead of the U.S. holiday needs.

Additionally, August export results from China show an actual drop in exports, falling 16 percent year-over-year from decreased U.S. orders:

SCMP – China’s exports fell unexpectedly in August, as the trade war with the United States continued to hit the world’s second-largest economy.

Shipments fell by 1 per cent in the month after growing 3.3 per cent in July in dollar terms, and below the 2.1 per cent growth expected by analysts in a Bloomberg poll. Imports in the month dropped by 5.6 per cent, leaving a trade surplus of US$34.84 billion, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.

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Brexit is a Gordian Knot – Who Is The World's Premier Gordian Knot Cutter?….

The Gordian Knot of Brexit is based on a Parliamentary ruling class within the U.K. government who will not accept Great Britain leaving the European Union.
The elitist Members of Parliament (MP) have passed a law requiring Prime Minister Boris Johnson to forever stay in the EU until an agreement for terms of exit are reached.  However, the EU doesn’t want the U.K. to exit; so the consequence of the MP law is to ‘remain’ in the EU forever.  This elitist scheme has created the knot; and the majority of the British people -those who voted to ‘leave’- are insufferably bound within it.

In one approach to cutting the knot Prime Minister Boris Johnson has requested a national vote for government leadership on October 15th.  With a scheduled round of talks with the EU set for October 17th, a Boris Johnson election victory would create the needed momentum toward a hard-brexit (no deal) on October 31st.  Britain would, finally, be free.
However, the MP ruling class, those who say they know better than the people they are supposed to serve, know such a popular vote would upend their schemes – and likely lead to many of their alliance being removed from office.  So the elites will not support a national election that would lead to their own defeat. [More knot building].
A second knot-cutting tactic implied by the Prime Minister, is to ignore the insufferable law –recently passed and pending signature– and proceed toward a ‘no-deal’ Brexit on October 31st.
This approach could lead to the British Parliament being forced to vote against the Prime Minister (no confidence); and would set up a replacement election, which Boris Johnson wants anyway.  Actually, no-one is quite sure what will happen on this second knot-cutting avenue… no map available.
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Merkel Takes Her Tin Cup to China…

As if, on cue:


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