The Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), has released the first estimate of the third quarter GDP growth for June, July and August 2018 (full pdf below).  The rate of economic growth in Q3 is estimated at 3.5%, exceeding most forecasts of slightly more than three percent.  The second quarter growth was 4.2%.

“Defying ‘conventional wisdom’ once again, 3.5 percent growth is the latest sign that the Trump economy continues to surge,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “The President’s actions from deregulation to tax reform have supercharged the American economy, driving it to new heights.”

Overall the 3.5% growth is exceptionally strong.  To see the data bolstering a positive future forecast I would draw attention to Table 2 (lines 43 through 49) and the analysis for net impact over Exports/Imports.  The heavy import number delivered a net subtraction of 1.78% from GDP growth; that’s a result of a large increase in imported durable goods [likely anticipatory holiday inventory buildup].

As you can imagine from your own shopping experiences, durable goods inventories generally climb in the third quarter as companies increase inventory in preparation for holiday sales in quarter four.  The growth in the buildup of this inventory is significantly higher than historic trend; this means companies are forecasting strong consumer demand for goods in Q4, the holiday season.
Further support for a booming Q4 purchase prediction can be found in the current 4% growth of consumer spending.  With wages growing (3.8% avg), and with an incredibly strong jobs market, people are making large purchases with confidence.  Additionally, price data in the current GDP report shows inflation at a 1.6 percent annualized pace.
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This is not financial advice. CTH simply explains economic influences and how they show up visibly in various KPI’s.  This is not financial advice.
The current Wall Street stock market sell-off is (in majority) mostly an outcome of investors betting Republicans are going to lose the House of Representatives and the MAGA economic policy will be blocked by a Democrat controlled House.

The U.S. Stock Market is factoring in a House of Representatives election loss for the Trump economic agenda.  Predictably, Democrats will target the administration with legislative challenges, investigations and court cases focused on regulations and tax policy.
Democrats have announced their intent to target President Trump cabinet members for investigations; the administration will be bound up in committee oversight; Trump’s family business interests and taxes will be part of a renewed investigation; and all of the MAGAnomic policy will immediately stop amid the reistance.  That’s the reality.
From the perspective of 5-year-view investors: If you think the 2018 mid-term election will result in a Democrat controlled house of representatives; with Adam Schiff as Speaker; then getting out of the market is not an unreasonable position.
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Well, there it is.  Quietly within the deliberate words from Vice-President Mike Pence a revelation that explains the origination of the Central American invasion force.  For those who are not deep in the geopolitical weeds, the subtlety can pass unnoticed; for those who travel within the deepest international conflicts, Pence’s words here are as subtle as a brick through a window:

[…] “Financed by Venezuela; and sent North to challenge our sovereignty and our border”…

[wpvideo tXWLlFMs]
Announcing the migrant caravan is “financed by Venezuela” is a direct notification the Central American invasion force is being funded by Russia and China.  Venezuela doesn’t have any money to sustain its own operational government – let alone a 10,000 person convoy.  Venezuela is entirely reliant upon massive investment from Russia and China.
In fact China owns 49% of Venezuela’s state run PDVSA energy production. A collateral system where Beijing takes oil as payment for prior loans the Maduro regime cannot pay back.  With the crippling treasury department sanctions President Trump put on Venezuela last year, Trump has punched Maduro and Xi-Jinping hard.
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President Trump delivers remarks during a meeting between federal and state leaders. The conference is held to emphasize coordination between federal officials and their direct contacts at the state level.

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As expected the government of Mexico put up token resistance at their southern border (video laughable) and allows thousands of economic migrants passage to the U.S. Mexico border.
Rebuking the strongly worded demands of President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo the insufferable Mexican Foreign Secretary Luis Videgaray tells media his country will now call on the United Nations to intervene.   Yes, it’s up to the U.N. now….

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This is a transparently constructed political operation; with the migrant arrival timed to arrive at the U.S-Mexico border at the same time as the 2018 midterm election.
CTH has followed this for several years and below you will find a comprehensive time-line of the issue along with full historic citations and documents, and all the evidence of the financial motives behind much of the activity.
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President Trump represents an existential geopolitical threat to decades of advanced leftist policy (political globalists); predicated on the proposition that all national sovereignty should be erased in favor of an open-border society.  A one world order with a central planning authority vis-a-vis The U.N, World Bank, World Trade Organization etc.
The Trump Doctrine, that is to say: applied economic leverage to achieve national security objectives and independent U.S. sovereignty, is the policy that creates the risk.
There are trillions at stake.
In the big picture President Trump is deconstructing decades of globalist policy.
From the perspective of Trump’s political opposition, attempts to stop him on a national scale are failing; therefore the second approach is to stop what he is doing on the global scale.  Now we enter the geopolitical world behind the death of Jamal Kashoogi.
As an outcome of the Trump Doctrine, the U.S. economy is thriving as each of the multinational tentacles is removed.  Each renegotiated trade deal removes an economic control valve on American wealth and essentially stops the ‘wealth spreading’.  America is independently thriving.  However, as an outcome, the global economy is beginning to retract with the advancement of an independent U.S. economy and the creation of internal economic policies which remove the influence of multinationals.  In essence, U.S. wealth is independent again.
The Trump Doctrine is succeeding and the multinationals are necessarily suffering as a result.  Therefore the institutional global engineers now need to target the ability of the U.S. economic system to thrive independently.  Remember, there are trillions at stake. It appears the selected multinational targeting weapon has been chosen; global energy.
The death of Jamal Khashoogi has the hallmarks of a tool for advanced use by all of the familiar institutional elements to achieve disruption to the Trump Doctrine.
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You might remember when CTH shared the following wage growth estimate:

[…] I’m not going to dismiss the possibility we could see double digit increases in year-over-year wage growth in multiple economic sectors in several regions of the U.S. –link–

Trucking Company President Nicholas Hobbs is now saying he projects a twenty percent increase in wages for truck drivers due to extreme demand.  That’s MAGAwinnamins!
Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao discusses efforts to address the truck driver shortage in America.

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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the outlook for U.S. economic growth, the jobs market, training and vocational initiatives and the expansion of benefits and wages for blue-collar workers.

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Small Business Administrator Linda McMahon and small business owner Mike Kovach on small business optimism, workforce initiatives around vocational training, the skills gap and massive job opportunity, along with the Trump administration’s deregulation push.

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With the economy expanding, many people have asked about the White House initiatives to tackle the debt and deficit.  Today the White House was fully engaged on that very topic.
Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney discusses spending and deficits with Stuart Varney.

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