We can expect the pace of things to become increasingly fast in the next few weeks.
To our north, a small percentage of Canadians are just beginning to realize what the term “Associate Member” really means when it comes to a Canada joining with the European Union on strategic objectives.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has been selling a sovereignty argument to his constituents within his political package of antagonisms toward the U.S. trade team and President Trump. However, Europe has far greater restrictions and regulations on trade autonomy than the USA. If Canada is to be partnered to the EU, then suddenly Canada has to adhere to a higher level of trade restrictions. The EU makes the rules.
With Europe dictating trade standards, rules of production, manufacturing, access etc. Canada is no longer in alignment with the USMCA. This plays right into the hands of President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who would prefer two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements; one with Mexico and one with Canada.
The question then becomes, when do Trump and Greer announce the termination of the USMCA. The most reasonable answer is after the U.S. and Mexico finalize a bilateral trade agreement. With the U.S. and Mexico agreement confirmed, the Canadian leverage evaporates.
Carney had previously tried to pressure Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum not to reach bilateral terms. However, again return to what Carney just did with Europe. Telling Mexico to sit on their hands while organizing a separate side deal with Europe is more than a little hypocritical; in fact, it is really, really insulting.
This opens the door for Trump and Greer to exploit Carney’s self-centered political duplicity, and when you understand that dynamic you have context for why there’s suddenly a warmer embrace of such an agreement by Sheinbaum. Any hope that Carney had to rely on Mexican favor toward them, was just eliminated by the gleeful backslapping in Strasbourg France witnessed by everyone.



