Apparently our CTH suspicions were correct; this is interesting.  Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is scheduled to leave Canada on Tuesday for a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers in Singapore…. Meanwhile U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and a high-level Mexican team -consisting of both incoming AMLO and exiting Nieto delegations- will be meeting again to determine the details of a bilateral trade deal.

Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo is from the outgoing Pena Nieto administration and was part of the crew supporting the Canadian position; ie. the plan to continue exploiting the NAFTA loophole.  However, Mexican president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has selected Jesus Seade as his lead person for trade negotiations and appears more willing to engage in a bilateral trade deal with the U.S.
AMLO’s Jesus Seade, Minister Ildefonso Guajardo and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer are meeting again this Thursday to put the outline of a deal together; while Canada is sidelined from the discussion.
Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association in Canada, said: “I wouldn’t be surprised if the Americans and the Mexicans came to some resolution on that piece (autos) and then the Americans flip it back to Canada and say ‘Take it or leave it’.”  That is exactly what CTH anticipated was going to happen.
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For those following the nuance within ongoing U.S. trade discussions you have likely noted Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer speaking optimistically about a potential for a U.S. Mexico trade agreement. However, simultaneously the U.S. trade team is not optimistic about any deal with Canada.
Mexico’s President-Elect Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has changed the trade dynamic internally within NAFTA for two reasons: #1) because the agriculture sector is much more critical to Mexico than it is to Canada; and #2) AMLO acknowledges and accepts the NAFTA fatal flaw; his manufacturing economy is based on the assembly of imported parts – like Canada, Mexico doesn’t actually manufacture much (ex. no aluminum smelters).

[Pompeo congratulating AMLO – Not an accidental delegation]

In the big picture AMLO wants to advance the Mexican manufacturing base; expand the aggregate economic base; and also stop the corporate exploitation of the Mexican farm worker. In these objectives U.S. President Trump is more than willing to be a partner with President Lopez Obrador. Heck, President Trump would actually love to assist AMLO on that agenda; it is mutually beneficial.
Diametrically, in Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has doubled-down on the retention of the fatal flaw and does not want an expanded domestic manufacturing base. The enviro-nuts of his base just will not support it. Therefore, Canada is loggerheads with the United States because Canada is demanding to retain their NAFTA access to the U.S. market, and simultaneously retain their ability to broker imported Chinese goods.
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There is a key issue in every NAFTA discussion that is omitted purposefully.  The issue always hidden is that NAFTA is not a North American “Trade Bloc”.
Most people mistakenly equate NAFTA with other multi-nation trade partnerships like the EU (European Union).  The NAFTA partnership is nothing like the EU trade bloc; it is not even close.

Within the EU example, each nation is committed to only trade with outside nations on terms of agreement within the trade bloc.  All trade parameters must meet and comply with the terms within the EU trade agreements.  The terms of trade inside the group are connected to the same terms outside the group. It is an agreement between themselves and their commerce toward all other external nations.
However, in NAFTA, the Canadian and Mexican trade ministers can negotiate freely with outside nations.  There are no restrictive parameters on their independent decisions.  NAFTA is more similar to an access agreement with *only* terms of internal trade and commerce between the U.S., Canada and Mexico subject to the agreement. NAFTA is only an agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico and does not extend to external nations.
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Interesting how two different articles (Reuters HERE) and (CBC HERE) hit on the same issue; a call between Prime Minister Justin from Canada and U.S. President Trump.  According to both reports Justin from Canada reached out prior to the listing of the counter tariffs to the U.S. Steel and Aluminum duties.

BEDMINSTER, N.J./OTTAWA (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau late on Friday to discuss trade and other economic issues, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said on Saturday.
During the call, Trudeau told Trump that Canada had no choice but to announce reciprocal countermeasures to the steel and aluminum tariffs, according to a separate statement issued by Canada late on Friday. The two leaders agreed to stay in close touch on a way forward, the statement added.

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Whoopsie – During a debriefing session between Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, Canadian politicians and business leaders, the chief NAFTA negotiator for Canada Steve Verheul accidentally told the group, while cameras were rolling, there were no actual NAFTA negotiations taking place.

When a seemingly shocked participant then asked a follow-up question about how could Steve Verheul reconcile that admission against earlier statements about an upcoming  Memo of Understanding (MOU), Ms. Freeland quickly shut down the discussion -in french- until the cameras left the meeting.  [Watch Video Segment Here]

Council Question: “Do you still meet your counterparts? Do you still have committees that are working?  What is the status of the negotiations?
Steve Verheul: “We don’t have any active negotiations. I haven’t talked to them in a little while.”
Council Question: “Since, …since?”
Steve Verheul: “Two or three weeks. Um, I’ll have the odd conversation, but no real engagement, no real negotiation session.”
Council Question: “And when we hear that you were close to a kind of MOU [Memo of Understanding] what was the basis of that?”
Chrystia Freeland: awkward interruption in French. (watch below)

What became evident within the exchange is the Canadian government trying to hide the lack of NAFTA progress from concerned citizens inside Canada.  In essence, the Canadian government is lying to their citizens about the possibility of a NAFTA agreement.
The Canadian economy contracting.  Last month the Canadian economy dropped 31,000 full-time jobs.  Amid an economy one-tenth the size of the U.S, that would be a comparative single-month job loss of 310,000 in the United States.
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Seek first to understand.  During an assembly of Canadian left-spectrum pundits the U.S. and Canada relationship is the topic; the backdrop is the economic consequences, trade and NAFTA.   In this group the high-minded Canadians express their views, their wounded sensibilities, and yet simultaneously highlight an important strategic flaw.
Within their political frame-of-reference, they cannot fathom the tenuous nature of their dependency.  They think they are more important than they are. Their inability to accept the weakness of their economic position is based on their feelings. Pride is very dangerous in negotiations amid apex predators. If you are prideful you provide a strategic advantage for the opposition.  In negotiations, President Trump doesn’t care about ‘feelings’ or opinions toward his approach.
The Canadian economic position is ‘not to lose‘, the Trump position is to win.  There is a huge strategic difference within those two perspectives.

I wish we had caught this interview before the G7 began because it highlights how much energy the international community is expending in their desperation to retain access to the U.S. market. The central issue is how several decades of international trade policy have been built around exploitative one-way access and rules.

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland, the primary Canadian trade negotiator sat down with The National ahead of the G7 summit to talk about strategies for dealing with the Trump administration, tariffs and expectations for the summit.  WATCH:

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There’s a part of this interview that CBC didn’t broadcast, but presented in a twitter video. See below:

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Canada is vowing to retaliate against the U.S. if President Trump subjects NAFTA partners to the same tariffs as other trade nations and eliminates the NAFTA loophole. {Go Deep}

The NAFTA Loophole allows Canada and Mexico to broker independent trade deals with Asian and European companies; then use their Mexican and Canadian access to the U.S. market as a backdoor around U.S. Tariffs.

This loophole has been exceptionally rewarding for both Canada and Mexico and for more than a decade they have structured their economies around loophole retention. U.S. corporations, seeing advantages from cheap Asian parts in Mexico and Canada, have moved some manufacturing there to take advantage.  In an effort to reset the trade imbalance created by the loophole President Trump is threatening to close it.

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada will “respond appropriately” to any U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Wednesday, less than two days before the punitive measures are due to kick in.

“The government is absolutely prepared to – and will defend – Canadian industries and Canadian jobs. We will respond appropriately,” Freeland told reporters when asked about possible U.S. action.

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The 30-day extension on exemptions for Steel and Aluminum tariffs is scheduled to expire June 1st.  President Trump is positioning the U.S. Trade Team for a substantial reset. According to reports, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystina Freeland held a terse meeting today over the tariffs and Canada’s unwillingness to close the NAFTA ‘fatal flaw‘ (loophole).

Both Canada and Mexico have structured key parts of their trade agreements to take advantage of their unique access to the U.S. market.  Mexico and Canada generate billions in economic activity through exploiting the NAFTA loophole.  China, Asia (writ large), and the EU enter into trade agreements with Mexico and Canada as back-doors into the U.S. market.  So long as corporations can avoid U.S. tariffs by going through Canada and Mexico they will continue to exploit this approach.

If the U.S. applies the same tariffs to Canada and Mexico we apply to all trade nations, then the benefit of using Canada and Mexico -by those trade nations- is lost. Corporations will no longer have any advantage, and many are likely to just deal directly with the U.S.  However, this would mean hundreds of billions in lost economic activity for Mexico and Canada.  It is the NAFTA fatal flaw.

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Prior to departing for New York to attend an immigration roundtable President Trump held an impromptu press conference on the South Lawn.  The primary topic was the congressional leadership meeting tomorrow with Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, FBI Director Christopher Wray and DOJ Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General Edward O’Callaghan (formerly from DOJ-NSD).

During the impromptu remarks the term “spygate” was coined.

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